81 replies to this topic

[Juggles]

I was thinking of waiting until the winter break for this but I've seen enough signs to start this thread now. Simply put, I think we could be on the verge of a titanic battle between Vettel and Hamilton at the front of the grid as we move into the new regulations era. 2009 - 2013 is nearing its end and whatever happens in the second half of this season it has undoubtedly belonged to Red Bull and Vettel. Alonso was the only driver to take the fight to Vettel in two different years and he almost single-handedly kept 2012 interesting right to the end, but I think the Alonso-Vettel rivalry was a starter to the main course of the Vettel-Hamilton rivalry which is coming our way from 2014. Here's why:

1) Red Bull is very likely to remain at the sharp end of the grid. Their budget is huge, their development is as good as if not better than anyone and they have a great deal of influence in the sport. They are also the Renault works team and does anyone really think Renault will produce a dud engine?

2) Mercedes look like they are on the verge of something special. The budget is there now, the brainpower is there and the belief is there (the three Bs?). Like Red Bull they are a works team and are starting to prove they can keep up in the development race. They've been focused on 2014 for longer than any other top team.

3) The third and last works team is Ferrari. I don't see a team on the up like I do with Mercedes; I see the opposite. I think the fragile tyres have really helped mask some deficiencies of the last few Ferrari cars and if Pirelli deliver on their promise to be more conservative in 2014 I don't think it will help the Scuderia. Yes 2014 is a blank slate, but I just don't see the spark at the moment. There have been a few rumours that the Ferrari engine unit isn't up to scratch either. This may come back to bite me but I think McLaren vs Ferrari is an old story that isn't coming back, certainly not over the next few years.

4) Vettel and Hamilton are currently the two best drivers on the grid. Raikkonen isn't as fast as those two anymore and I don't believe Alonso is either. In 2012 that didn't matter because he was so daring yet consistent in races but I don't think Alonso will ever reach those heights again. Even this season there have been signs that he can't sustain it and to be brutally honest I think there's quite a high chance he won't win another world championship. If he doesn't get his third it would be a travesty but now Vettel and Hamilton are looking so strong Ferrari will need to give him at least as good a car as Red Bull or Mercedes which I don't see happening. Given his age the 2009 - 2013 era should have been his zenith and in terms of his driving it was; he was marvellous; yet he has no more championships to show for it.

So, I think there's a pretty high chance that Red Bull and Mercedes deliver the two best cars on the grid next season. I don't believe Rosberg will be able to keep up with Hamilton consistently and only if Vettel is paired with Alonso will his teammate be able to keep up with him (I don't think either Raikkonen or Ricciardo would). So to me the signs are pointing towards the next couple of titles at least being shared between Vettel and Hamilton, hopefully in a competitive manner.

Thoughts?

[amppatel]

Love the complete no thought for McLaren in this analysis.

[baddog]

Way too much water to go under the bridge, and many fine drivers and teams dismissed.

[Radion]

Love the complete no thought for McLaren in this analysis.

I agree, one should never count out mclaren!
I'd say, let's just wait at least how winter testing'll go. Other than that, its's just pure speculation...

I was thinking of waiting until the winter break for this but I've seen enough signs to start this thread now. Simply put, I think we could be on the verge of a titanic battle between Vettel and Hamilton at the front of the grid as we move into the new regulations era. 2009 - 2013 is nearing its end and whatever happens in the second half of this season it has undoubtedly belonged to Red Bull and Vettel. Alonso was the only driver to take the fight to Vettel in two different years and he almost single-handedly kept 2012 interesting right to the end, but I think the Alonso-Vettel rivalry was a starter to the main course of the Vettel-Hamilton rivalry which is coming our way from 2014. Here's why:

1) Red Bull is very likely to remain at the sharp end of the grid. Their budget is huge, their development is as good as if not better than anyone and they have a great deal of influence in the sport. They are also the Renault works team and does anyone really think Renault will produce a dud engine?

2) Mercedes look like they are on the verge of something special. The budget is there now, the brainpower is there and the belief is there (the three Bs?). Like Red Bull they are a works team and are starting to prove they can keep up in the development race. They've been focused on 2014 for longer than any other top team.

3) The third and last works team is Ferrari. I don't see a team on the up like I do with Mercedes; I see the opposite. I think the fragile tyres have really helped mask some deficiencies of the last few Ferrari cars and if Pirelli deliver on their promise to be more conservative in 2014 I don't think it will help the Scuderia. Yes 2014 is a blank slate, but I just don't see the spark at the moment. There have been a few rumours that the Ferrari engine unit isn't up to scratch either. This may come back to bite me but I think McLaren vs Ferrari is an old story that isn't coming back, certainly not over the next few years.

4) Vettel and Hamilton are currently the two best drivers on the grid. Raikkonen isn't as fast as those two anymore and I don't believe Alonso is either. In 2012 that didn't matter because he was so daring yet consistent in races but I don't think Alonso will ever reach those heights again. Even this season there have been signs that he can't sustain it and to be brutally honest I think there's quite a high chance he won't win another world championship. If he doesn't get his third it would be a travesty but now Vettel and Hamilton are looking so strong Ferrari will need to give him at least as good a car as Red Bull or Mercedes which I don't see happening. Given his age the 2009 - 2013 era should have been his zenith and in terms of his driving it was; he was marvellous; yet he has no more championships to show for it.

So, I think there's a pretty high chance that Red Bull and Mercedes deliver the two best cars on the grid next season. I don't believe Rosberg will be able to keep up with Hamilton consistently and only if Vettel is paired with Alonso will his teammate be able to keep up with him (I don't think either Raikkonen or Ricciardo would). So to me the signs are pointing towards the next couple of titles at least being shared between Vettel and Hamilton, hopefully in a competitive manner.

Thoughts?

I disagree. Raikonnen is better than ever, and how can you count out alonso? Heck, even button'd win a few wdcs if mclaren is able to build a strong car that suits him (which I think they'll in 2014).

Edited by Radion, 04 August 2013 - 09:00.

[Fangiola]

What of McLaren and their Honda Engines from 2015. They might prove to be competitive

[undersquare]

Yeah I agree. McLaren don't have a driver and I don't think Ferrari's engine dept is as big as the others '.

It'll be a great rivalry.

[1Devil1]

I am loving those summer breaks, one win of Hamilton and he will be the giant for the next years. What about as mentioned McLaren or raising Hulkenberg, next year will be a complete regulation change - there is even a possibility Mercedes could be on the back foot because of reliability problems or Red Bull lacking top results because aero isn't that important anymore . 2014 will be a game changer - worst time to predict a long term battle that might be never happens.

Edited by 1Devil1, 04 August 2013 - 09:06.

[DutchQuicksilver]

So you call Red Bull a works team with their Renault engine, but not mention McLaren as a works team when they have Honda engines in 2015? Strange...

I don't believe Vettel vs Hamilton will happen like we had Prost vs Senna or Hakkinen vs Schumacher. There are plenty of good drivers and of course Alonso will still be in the mix next year. Though Ferrari isn't a team that copes with regulation changes best, they will always build a car that wins a few races in a season. McLaren will come back too, no doubt. Maybe not 2014 because they are still stuck with Mercedes, but from 2015 onwards definitely.

[mardmarium]

4) Vettel and Hamilton are currently the two best drivers on the grid. Raikkonen isn't as fast as those two anymore and I don't believe Alonso is either. In 2012 that didn't matter because he was so daring yet consistent in races but I don't think Alonso will ever reach those heights again. Even this season there have been signs that he can't sustain it and to be brutally honest I think there's quite a high chance he won't win another world championship. If he doesn't get his third it would be a travesty but now Vettel and Hamilton are looking so strong Ferrari will need to give him at least as good a car as Red Bull or Mercedes which I don't see happening. Given his age the 2009 - 2013 era should have been his zenith and in terms of his driving it was; he was marvellous; yet he has no more championships to show for it.

Where this myth comes from?

From different cars maybe?

[SpaMaster]

Love the complete no thought for McLaren in this analysis.

Amen to that!

McLaren has the wherewithal to make championship-contending cars. If they get a driver like Raikkonen, who knows? If they make top cars, top drivers will come.

Too much uncertainly to predict Hamilton vs Vettel. Hamilton has won just one race with Mercedes. If their car continues to go backward making a meal out of its tyres, nothing will save them. What was Hamilton doing when he was with McLaren? 2011 was full of mistakes and under-performance. Even in 2010 and 2012, it was not like he was outperforming Button easily. In my view, Hamilton has not at all performed to the maximum for some time.

Ferrari is no guarantee to make dud cars with the new regulations. It is still not yet time to rule out Alonso's capabilities.

Sorry, there is not enough information to predict Vettel vs Hamilton yet.

Edited by SpaMaster, 04 August 2013 - 09:45.

[onewingedangel]

If one engine proves a step ahead of the others then we could see Red Bull versus Lotus, or Mercedes versus McLaren.

In year one of the new regulations, before everyone catches up to be more or less even in exploiting the potential of the regulations, we could see one engine supplier lock in an advantage for the year due to the homologation process.

If for example a Mercedes engine is half a second faster than a Renault, transposed to the chassis relative competitiveness this year (assuming the current V8's are essentially balanced in the competitiveness) we would see a Mercedes whitewash with McLaren and Force India competing with Red Bull and Lotus.

Edited by onewingedangel, 04 August 2013 - 09:53.

[undersquare]

What of McLaren and their Honda Engines from 2015. They might prove to be competitive

Well nothing is impossible of course but Honda's last F1 engine wasn't very good was it? In fact some said it was as much as 70 hp down on the Merc unit Brawn swapped in to win with in 2009. Now they're coming in a year late against other engines that'll have had a year's experience behind them.

Similarly McLaren will have 2014 with a temporary engine that Merc will be telling them as little about as possible, then in 2015 they'll be in their first year packaging their engine while the others will be in their second year.

McLaren are losing Vodafone and won't have a driver to match LH/SV. JB looks as good as Checo and he needs a car with something like 0.2-0.3s over Lewis' to match him. This year had a huge process error in not nailing the aero consequences of switching to pullrod front suspension. They've lost some staff and have a smaller budget, unless Honda are going to give them money as well as engines?

So McLaren might be up there, but there seem to be a few reasons to doubt it.

[Retrofly]

I don;t think theres any reason to get carried away, as a Ham I take every race as it comes. You never know, the 2014 Merc could be a duffer and run mid pack. Who knows!

[Peter Perfect]

...

Sorry, there is not enough information to predict Vettel vs Hamilton yet.

Exactly.

It's possible of course, but with the big regulation changes I think it's more the OP's hope rather than a nailed on likelihood.

[P123]

My reaction to this topic is let's wait and see. It could be Alonso v Raikkonen for all we know, or the battle not limited to only two drivers.

[Jimisgod]

Who would guess ex-Honda rebadged as Brawn would win in 2009?

Jury is out on who will get the leg up, and Mclaren will still be a wildcard in 2015.

That said, Merc and RBR have the best budgets...

[P123]

Amen to that!

McLaren has the wherewithal to make championship-contending cars. If they get a driver like Raikkonen, who knows? If they make top cars, top drivers will come.

Too much uncertainly to predict Hamilton vs Vettel. Hamilton has won just one race with Mercedes. If their car continues to go backward making a meal out of its tyres, nothing will save them. What was Hamilton doing when he was with McLaren? 2011 was full of mistakes and under-performance. Even in 2010 and 2012, it was not like he was outperforming Button easily. In my view, Hamilton has not at all performed to the maximum for some time.

Ferrari is no guarantee to make dud cars with the new regulations. It is still not yet time to rule out Alonso's capabilities.

Sorry, there is not enough information to predict Vettel vs Hamilton yet.

Firstly, McLaren have Button; doubt they need Raikkonen just yet. Secondly, I suspect you were asleep when watching the 2012 season.

[Fangiola]

Who would guess ex-Honda rebadged as Brawn would win in 2009?

Jury is out on who will get the leg up, and Mclaren will still be a wildcard in 2015.

That said, Merc and RBR have the best budgets...

Do they ? Red bull I can understand and even Ferrari, but never heard about Merc having the best budget (By best am assuming you mean largest)

[P123]

Do they ? Red bull I can understand and even Ferrari, but never heard about Merc having the best budget (By best am assuming you mean largest)

Not sure about the 'best' budget, but Merc had been running below the RRA (moreso as a legacy of Honda pulling out and Brawn having to downsize as a result) and have been building up resources and personnel over the past couple of seasons.

[zack1994]

Well nothing is impossible of course but Honda's last F1 engine wasn't very good was it? In fact some said it was as much as 70 hp down on the Merc unit Brawn swapped in to win with in 2009. Now they're coming in a year late against other engines that'll have had a year's experience behind them.

Similarly McLaren will have 2014 with a temporary engine that Merc will be telling them as little about as possible, then in 2015 they'll be in their first year packaging their engine while the others will be in their second year.

McLaren are losing Vodafone and won't have a driver to match LH/SV. JB looks as good as Checo and he needs a car with something like 0.2-0.3s over Lewis' to match him. This year had a huge process error in not nailing the aero consequences of switching to pullrod front suspension. They've lost some staff and have a smaller budget, unless Honda are going to give them money as well as engines?

So McLaren might be up there, but there seem to be a few reasons to doubt it.

In qualifying yes, but not the race.

[SpaMaster]

Firstly, McLaren have Button; doubt they need Raikkonen just yet. Secondly, I suspect you were asleep when watching the 2012 season.

As long as you were not dreaming when watching the 2012 season..

[bourbon]

I was thinking of waiting until the winter break for this but I've seen enough signs to start this thread now. Simply put, I think we could be on the verge of a titanic battle between Vettel and Hamilton at the front of the grid as we move into the new regulations era. 2009 - 2013 is nearing its end and whatever happens in the second half of this season it has undoubtedly belonged to Red Bull and Vettel. Alonso was the only driver to take the fight to Vettel in two different years and he almost single-handedly kept 2012 interesting right to the end, but I think the Alonso-Vettel rivalry was a starter to the main course of the Vettel-Hamilton rivalry which is coming our way from 2014. Here's why:

The premise paragraph has errors. Alonso was not the only driver to to "take the fight to Vettel" in 2010. Seeing as Vettel did not lead the championship that year at all - and his teammate led it for 2/3 of the year and Alonso for a bit, you can pick between Alonso taking the fight to Webber or Webber taking the fight to Alonso, but one thing is certain, it was Vettel that brought the fight to Alonso and Webber.

Furthermore, 2010 was one of the most remarkable years for F1. 5 drivers still in it to win it with 5 races left, 4 after that. Dismissing 2010 as a year where "Alonso took the fight to Vettel" is a mischaracterization. Many drivers were involved and all of them, for a good part of the season, taking the fight to Webber (you will recall Ferrari covering Webber in the finale).

2012 was far more interesting than you recite, imo. Macca and Hamilton were a threat each weekend - it is only possible to leave him out of the discussion in hindsight due to poor strategy and reliability issues, but all points 2012, he was looking competitive and the car quite mighty. It was Vettel that made it interesting with a come back after the break - which isn't included in your narative - then Alonso took up that mantle after Vettel squeezed by in points.

I don't know what the future will bring, and it is possible that in some years we'd have a Vettel v. Hamilton finale - but I think the past argues against our entring into a 2 horse race era; on the contrary, I think the competition will remain quite open. We've Alonso, Raikkonen, and Button for a while yet, and Nico R, Perez, Hulk etc for the longer stretch; and of course there is always room for a new hot shot to come on the scene and toss his name into the ring of top competitors.

Edited by bourbon, 04 August 2013 - 12:23.

[itsademo]

firstly I don't believe redbull will have Renault engines next year (maybe delayed until 2015)
secondly they have got to their position simply by being able to outspend everyone else.
Until we see Vettel take a bad (under performing relative to the rest) car consistently further up the grid than it should be he is a great driver in the best car nothing more nothing less.
Hamilton and Alonso will always push bad cars further up the grid than their teammates, Not saying Vettel cant but we have not seen him CONSISTANTLY push a bad car up to places it did not deserve to be.
When you have a car 2 seconds faster than any other and you are a little better than your teammate you win, just look at the brawns in their first year and no one thinks Jenson is the best driver on the grid but was a well deserved wdc winner due to the fastest car and a not so quick teammate.

[tmzxaar]

Not in 2014, but in a few years yes!

[Clatter]

firstly I don't believe redbull will have Renault engines next year (maybe delayed until 2015)
secondly they have got to their position simply by being able to outspend everyone else.
Until we see Vettel take a bad (under performing relative to the rest) car consistently further up the grid than it should be he is a great driver in the best car nothing more nothing less.
Hamilton and Alonso will always push bad cars further up the grid than their teammates, Not saying Vettel cant but we have not seen him CONSISTANTLY push a bad car up to places it did not deserve to be.
When you have a car 2 seconds faster than any other and you are a little better than your teammate you win, just look at the brawns in their first year and no one thinks Jenson is the best driver on the grid but was a well deserved wdc winner due to the fastest car and a not so quick teammate.

Really? Then whose engine are they going to use for one year only?

[undersquare]

In qualifying yes, but not the race.

Not to get too deep into Jense vs Lewis but last year comprehensively debunked the 'race pace' argument, unless you cling to the points table. Over the weekend Jense is around 5th best driver and Checo isn't looking any better so far, so McLaren need a positive car advantage to take on SV/LH. That's not impossible, but there's not much reason to predict it, that I can see.

[zack1994]

Not to get too deep into Jense vs Lewis but last year comprehensively debunked the 'race pace' argument, unless you cling to the points table. Over the weekend Jense is around 5th best driver and Checo isn't looking any better so far, so McLaren need a positive car advantage to take on SV/LH. That's not impossible, but there's not much reason to predict it, that I can see.

Fair enough, but we all know jenson had his struggles with the mp4-27 so I don't think we saw him at his best in 2012, but if he had a car underneath him that he was actually happy with like the 2011 McLaren you don't think he could take the fight to Hamilton or vettel ?

[MMandi]

For all we know Redbull could fall down the grid in trying to get to grips with things who knows, it would be more interesting if they had a Mclaren/Ferarri (2012) type year at the start at least.

[bub]

Well as OP mentioned Alonso has come extremely close in recent years so I wouldn't count him out. McLaren had the fastest car last year and probably switched focus to 2014 before most so I wouldn't count them out either.

[undersquare]

Fair enough, but we all know jenson had his struggles with the mp4-27 so I don't think we saw him at his best in 2012, but if he had a car underneath him that he was actually happy with like the 2011 McLaren you don't think he could take the fight to Hamilton or vettel ?

JB can be sublime and beautiful to watch, but over a season I don't think he has the versatility and intensity of the top 3. If he has the car, then alright, but IMO his car needs an edge.

[st99]

firstly I don't believe redbull will have Renault engines next year (maybe delayed until 2015)
secondly they have got to their position simply by being able to outspend everyone else.
Until we see Vettel take a bad (under performing relative to the rest) car consistently further up the grid than it should be he is a great driver in the best car nothing more nothing less.
Hamilton and Alonso will always push bad cars further up the grid than their teammates, Not saying Vettel cant but we have not seen him CONSISTANTLY push a bad car up to places it did not deserve to be.
When you have a car 2 seconds faster than any other and you are a little better than your teammate you win, just look at the brawns in their first year and no one thinks Jenson is the best driver on the grid but was a well deserved wdc winner due to the fastest car and a not so quick teammate.

I've seen it. 2007/2008 with a Toro Rosso. In 2008 he scored more points than his team mate and both Red Bull drivers combined and he was 20/21 years old.

[itsademo]

Really? Then whose engine are they going to use for one year only?

no new engine suppliers from next year maybe the year after if delayed
not a 1 year deal

[MP422]

I was thinking of waiting until the winter break for this but I've seen enough signs to start this thread now. Simply put, I think we could be on the verge of a titanic battle between Vettel and Hamilton at the front of the grid as we move into the new regulations era. 2009 - 2013 is nearing its end and whatever happens in the second half of this season it has undoubtedly belonged to Red Bull and Vettel. Alonso was the only driver to take the fight to Vettel in two different years and he almost single-handedly kept 2012 interesting right to the end, but I think the Alonso-Vettel rivalry was a starter to the main course of the Vettel-Hamilton rivalry which is coming our way from 2014. Here's why:

1) Red Bull is very likely to remain at the sharp end of the grid. Their budget is huge, their development is as good as if not better than anyone and they have a great deal of influence in the sport. They are also the Renault works team and does anyone really think Renault will produce a dud engine?

2) Mercedes look like they are on the verge of something special. The budget is there now, the brainpower is there and the belief is there (the three Bs?). Like Red Bull they are a works team and are starting to prove they can keep up in the development race. They've been focused on 2014 for longer than any other top team.

3) The third and last works team is Ferrari. I don't see a team on the up like I do with Mercedes; I see the opposite. I think the fragile tyres have really helped mask some deficiencies of the last few Ferrari cars and if Pirelli deliver on their promise to be more conservative in 2014 I don't think it will help the Scuderia. Yes 2014 is a blank slate, but I just don't see the spark at the moment. There have been a few rumours that the Ferrari engine unit isn't up to scratch either. This may come back to bite me but I think McLaren vs Ferrari is an old story that isn't coming back, certainly not over the next few years.

4) Vettel and Hamilton are currently the two best drivers on the grid. Raikkonen isn't as fast as those two anymore and I don't believe Alonso is either. In 2012 that didn't matter because he was so daring yet consistent in races but I don't think Alonso will ever reach those heights again. Even this season there have been signs that he can't sustain it and to be brutally honest I think there's quite a high chance he won't win another world championship. If he doesn't get his third it would be a travesty but now Vettel and Hamilton are looking so strong Ferrari will need to give him at least as good a car as Red Bull or Mercedes which I don't see happening. Given his age the 2009 - 2013 era should have been his zenith and in terms of his driving it was; he was marvellous; yet he has no more championships to show for it.

So, I think there's a pretty high chance that Red Bull and Mercedes deliver the two best cars on the grid next season. I don't believe Rosberg will be able to keep up with Hamilton consistently and only if Vettel is paired with Alonso will his teammate be able to keep up with him (I don't think either Raikkonen or Ricciardo would). So to me the signs are pointing towards the next couple of titles at least being shared between Vettel and Hamilton, hopefully in a competitive manner.

Thoughts?

Nice prediction, I see this as a good possibility. Vettel and Hamilton seem to be sharing the front row quite alot these days and Merc and RBR look to be on another level this season. This sort of predictiton seems to garner the response that we saw when Hamilton moved to Merc and also what some predicted Mclaren would struggle with setup and development due to their current driver line up. this is a team that just 24 months ago may have been considered the best team for in season development. Now they couldn't figure out how to stay ahead of FI by the last summer break.. WOW

Merc has been putting the pieces together since 2010, Redbull hasn't slowed down in 5 years.... I think Ferrari has an outside shot for 2014 but with lotus unable to pay KR and allison going to Ferrari it seems your foresight could be more realistic then many want to admit. I think the only question mark in your belief is Ferrari and Alonso. I believe they will be 2014's dark horse. lol.

[itsademo]

I've seen it. 2007/2008 with a Toro Rosso. In 2008 he scored more points than his team mate and both Red Bull drivers combined and he was 20/21 years old.

and you think the RB of 2008 was in the same class as the one from 2009 (second half of the season) do you

[MP422]

Fair enough, but we all know jenson had his struggles with the mp4-27 so I don't think we saw him at his best in 2012, but if he had a car underneath him that he was actually happy with like the 2011 McLaren you don't think he could take the fight to Hamilton or vettel ?

Well but and if are kinda Jenson's and probably Mclarens M.O... Funny you mention 2011 where Button was happy with his car and finished 2nd 122 points behind SV in his RBR !!

[Juggles]

Way too much water to go under the bridge, and many fine drivers and teams dismissed.

Perhaps Ferrari will build a monster car next year and Alonso will walk to the title; perhaps big funding will come in for Lotus, and Raikkonen will do it again; perhaps McLaren will navigate this transitional period and bounce back to the top of the grid. Any of these things could happen but I think my "perhaps" is more likely, partly based on a feeling of the way the winds are blowing and partly based on what I have seen from the five top teams this season.

The Vettel vs Hamilton prediction is a corollary of a Red Bull vs Mercedes prediction, and a belief that by 2014 Vettel and Hamilton will have gained a slight edge over the other drivers they currently share the top echelon with.

[tmzxaar]

no new engine suppliers from next year maybe the year after if delayed
not a 1 year deal

You said RB won't have Renault engines until 2015, but they already have them...

[TomNokoe]

At the end of 2008 everyone said something similar. No use making predictions, for all we know it could be Rosberg vs Ricciardo for the next 5 years

[Juggles]

The premise paragraph has errors. Alonso was not the only driver to to "take the fight to Vettel" in 2010. Seeing as Vettel did not lead the championship that year at all - and his teammate led it for 2/3 of the year and Alonso for a bit, you can pick between Alonso taking the fight to Webber or Webber taking the fight to Alonso, but one thing is certain, it was Vettel that brought the fight to Alonso and Webber.

Furthermore, 2010 was one of the most remarkable years for F1. 5 drivers still in it to win it with 5 races left, 4 after that. Dismissing 2010 as a year where "Alonso took the fight to Vettel" is a mischaracterization. Many drivers were involved and all of them, for a good part of the season, taking the fight to Webber (you will recall Ferrari covering Webber in the finale).

2012 was far more interesting than you recite, imo. Macca and Hamilton were a threat each weekend - it is only possible to leave him out of the discussion in hindsight due to poor strategy and reliability issues, but all points 2012, he was looking competitive and the car quite mighty. It was Vettel that made it interesting with a come back after the break - which isn't included in your narative - then Alonso took up that mantle after Vettel squeezed by in points.

I don't know what the future will bring, and it is possible that in some years we'd have a Vettel v. Hamilton finale - but I think the past argues against our entring into a 2 horse race era; on the contrary, I think the competition will remain quite open. We've Alonso, Raikkonen, and Button for a while yet, and Nico R, Perez, Hulk etc for the longer stretch; and of course there is always room for a new hot shot to come on the scene and toss his name into the ring of top competitors.

That's why I said "Alonso was the only driver to take the fight to Vettel in two different years." I was trying to point out the feeling of a sustained challenge. In the two seasons out of three that Vettel only just won the championship it was Alonso who was second both times.

Hamilton finished 91 points behind Vettel in 2012. Hamilton was a threat each weekend, McLaren were not. Hamilton was a threat for race victories but he dropped out of championship reckoning with several races still to go.

Yes we have Alonso, Raikkonen and Button for a while yet; I just think they are on the other side of the slope to Vettel and Hamilton.

[EthanM]

Kimi and Alonso have maybe 3-4 more competitive years in them. Beyond that more championship level talent will emerge. This thread is as "silly" (and I don't mean it in an offense way) as someone saying in 2005 "it's kimi and Alonso from now on" or "it's Alonso and Hamilton from now on" in 2007.

[zack1994]

Well but and if are kinda Jenson's and probably Mclarens M.O... Funny you mention 2011 where Button was happy with his car and finished 2nd 122 points behind SV in his RBR !!

I think that says a lot about the RBR car that year.

[Clatter]

no new engine suppliers from next year maybe the year after if delayed
not a 1 year deal

Ok then, which other engine supplier is likely to give them a works deal then?

Edited by Clatter, 04 August 2013 - 14:42.

[zack1994]

JB can be sublime and beautiful to watch, but over a season I don't think he has the versatility and intensity of the top 3. If he has the car, then alright, but IMO his car needs an edge.

Yeah jenson isn't the most adaptable, it's his biggest weakness.

[Blackmore]

From 2014 onwards the fight will be between the teams with the best engine (or power unit, but I will type engine because it is shorter). People are underestimating how much the engines will dominate the performance of the car. Some commentators are saying this is the reason Alonso wants out of Ferrari because he has been told their engine will not come near the Mercedes and Renault engines performance. James Allen also alluded to this in a comment reply on his site (how the teams have the numbers/data already available and how those leak to competitors naturally because no one is going to uptalk their engine, just downtalk it as a good reference point).

Mercedes engine seems the best bet by a margin, so in theory the fight will be between Hamilton/Rosberg and one of the McLaren guys, who knows maybe even Force India. Renault will be less thirsty so they can start lighter but RBR has problems with KERS almost every race and next year when that updated system fails, your car stops on track. So in theory RBR should not be able to finish many races.

People are complaining how aero and tyres are dominating F1 too much now..wait until next year when you will only see Mercedes powered cars be in front, every race. What exciting competition that will be...

[EthanM]

From 2014 onwards the fight will be between the teams with the best engine (or power unit, but I will type engine because it is shorter). People are underestimating how much the engines will dominate the performance of the car. Some commentators are saying this is the reason Alonso wants out of Ferrari because he has been told their engine will not come near the Mercedes and Renault engines performance. James Allen also alluded to this in a comment reply on his site (how the teams have the numbers/data already available and how those leak to competitors naturally because no one is going to uptalk their engine, just downtalk it as a good reference point).

Mercedes engine seems the best bet by a margin, so in theory the fight will be between Hamilton/Rosberg and one of the McLaren guys, who knows maybe even Force India. Renault will be less thirsty so they can start lighter but RBR has problems with KERS almost every race and next year when that updated system fails, your car stops on track. So in theory RBR should not be able to finish many races.

People are complaining how aero and tyres are dominating F1 too much now..wait until next year when you will only see Mercedes powered cars be in front, every race. What exciting competition that will be...

excellent analysis except Renault is making the ERS not Red Bull, so don't expect the KERS issues Red Bull has to transfer to the Renault ERS, the Renault KERS system works fine in Lotus etc. And Renault are designing the engine to Newey cooling specs, that's the big advantage Red Bull got by being effectively the Renault works teams, they get first call on the packaging side.

Otherwise you are right, next 2-3 years will be all about the engines. Someone will have a clear advantage and consequently drivers using that engine will most likely be in a prime position to fight for the championship

[trogggy]

Lots of wishful thinking going on here.
How many people predicted Brawn winning in 2009?
How many predicted Red Bull domination for the past 4 years?
It seems to be an 'My drivers better than your driver' excuse-thread for some.

Edited by trogggy, 04 August 2013 - 15:38.

[undersquare]

Lots of wishful thinking going on here.
How many people predicted Brawn winning in 2009?
How many predicted Red Bull domination for the past 4 years?
It seems to be an 'My drivers better than your driver' excuse-thread for some.

Well speaking for myself if I were just thinking wishfully I'd be predicting Sebi's total demise lol

[Winter98]

I think Alonso, KR, Rosberg, Button, Perez, and a number of other drivers may have something to say about it.

[Grundle]

Lots of wishful thinking going on here.
How many people predicted Brawn winning in 2009?
How many predicted Red Bull domination for the past 4 years?
It seems to be an 'My drivers better than your driver' excuse-thread for some.

Nope, Hamilton and Vettel dominate qualifying, with more durable tyres, this will translate to the race more strongly.

[trogggy]

Nope.

Okay.