81 replies to this topic

[Clatter]

From 2014 onwards the fight will be between the teams with the best engine (or power unit, but I will type engine because it is shorter). People are underestimating how much the engines will dominate the performance of the car. Some commentators are saying this is the reason Alonso wants out of Ferrari because he has been told their engine will not come near the Mercedes and Renault engines performance. James Allen also alluded to this in a comment reply on his site (how the teams have the numbers/data already available and how those leak to competitors naturally because no one is going to uptalk their engine, just downtalk it as a good reference point).

Mercedes engine seems the best bet by a margin, so in theory the fight will be between Hamilton/Rosberg and one of the McLaren guys, who knows maybe even Force India. Renault will be less thirsty so they can start lighter but RBR has problems with KERS almost every race and next year when that updated system fails, your car stops on track. So in theory RBR should not be able to finish many races.

People are complaining how aero and tyres are dominating F1 too much now..wait until next year when you will only see Mercedes powered cars be in front, every race. What exciting competition that will be...

How would anyone know that at this stage? No one knows how any of the engines are going to match up to the competition. You say the Merc seems the best bet, but based on what?

[Clatter]

Lots of wishful thinking going on here.
How many people predicted Brawn winning in 2009?
How many predicted Red Bull domination for the past 4 years?
It seems to be an 'My drivers better than your driver' excuse-thread for some.

Yep. Nothing like getting those excuses in nice and early.

[P123]

Lots of wishful thinking going on here.
How many people predicted Brawn winning in 2009?
How many predicted Red Bull domination for the past 4 years?
It seems to be an 'My drivers better than your driver' excuse-thread for some.

I suppose you could say the topic is posed as a question, rather than statement of fact. As noted, few things are ever predicted correctly in advance, and the new regs. for 2014 leave things fairly wide open.

[trogggy]

I suppose you could say the topic is posed as a question, rather than statement of fact. As noted, few things are ever predicted correctly in advance, and the new regs. for 2014 leave things fairly wide open.

It wasn't really the OP I had in mind.

Edited by trogggy, 04 August 2013 - 17:03.

[sopa]

Did anyone predict Hakkinen vs Schumacher era in 1997?

[Rybo]

Whoever makes the most reliable engine will win the championship. The top teams can't afford to have their engines go boom every other week. As long as the races are close and the championships hotly contested by multiple teams. That's all anyone can ask for. Of course I expect all the WDC's to rise to the challenge regardless.

[Clatter]

Whoever makes the most reliable engine will win the championship. The top teams can't afford to have their engines go boom every other week. As long as the races are close and the championships hotly contested by multiple teams. That's all anyone can ask for. Of course I expect all the WDC's to rise to the challenge regardless.

IMHO it's the ERS that's going to be the deciding factor. They won't go boom, just stop working.

Edited by Clatter, 04 August 2013 - 19:55.

[ardbeg]

Yes. In fact, Bernie have already proposed a 2 car grid for 2014 and onwards. The teams have agreed since it cuts cost.

Edited by ardbeg, 04 August 2013 - 20:03.

[MP422]

I think that says a lot about the RBR car that year.

Where was the other RBR ?, I just feel i should point out too you i included Mclaren in that statement as well. It's not an absurd claim that Mclaren currently do not have a strong driver line up. Just look at the points this year the team has fallen apart.


Strength and Depth... yea right !

[bourbon]

That's why I said "Alonso was the only driver to take the fight to Vettel in two different years." I was trying to point out the feeling of a sustained challenge. In the two seasons out of three that Vettel only just won the championship it was Alonso who was second both times. Hamilton finished 91 points behind Vettel in 2012. Hamilton was a threat each weekend, McLaren were not. Hamilton was a threat for race victories but he dropped out of championship reckoning with several races still to go.

I see. I misunderstood. 'Sorry bout that.

Yes we have Alonso, Raikkonen and Button for a while yet; I just think they are on the other side of the slope to Vettel and Hamilton.

Why do you count out the rest of the younger field? Perez, Hulk, Bottas, ...? Do you feel that they won't come up to speed?

[Rybo]

Why do you count out the rest of the younger field? Perez, Hulk, Bottas, ...? Do you feel that they won't come up to speed?

If anyone of us could see the future we wouldn't be speculating, there is nothing to say that the new guard Hulk, Perez, Bottas, and I think Bianchi won't be able to win races and championships. It's just very hard to see any of them bettering Kimi, Seb, Fernando, Lewis or Jenson. Besides Perez none of them are in a team that can take the fight to any top team. 2014 will be interesting, but 2015 will depend on the silly season to spice tags up.

[Kelateboy]

What of McLaren and their Honda Engines from 2015. They might prove to be competitive

Honda will be at a disadvantage to enter the scene in 2015. If their is power-plant is underpowered, there is not much that they could do in 2015 and beyond. 2014 is the year where all engine manufacturers could upgrade, retune and refine their engines without any limitations.

[Shiroo]

Sorry for ot, but where crystalballs are sold?
Cause all these topics that predict 2014 are calling for some dark Magic.

rbr can produce **** car, Mercedes as well. The most important Factor will be engine, so if renault or Mercedes or whoever might producent engine that will allow its teams to dominate.

One thing we heard so far and even ferrari dont hide it, are ferrari problems with new engines, they mentioned they are afraid of fuel limit, while renault and mercedes didn t share their opinion.

If renault will produce the best engine we.can see rbr.vs.lotus, while if it will be Mercedes, then.maybe mclaren, fi and mercedes.

So vettel vs hamilton is utter bullshit that is made only because this board has.such.insane.hamilton fanbase that all his decisions and drives are on god level and he has only one title because mclaren gave him **** car through his whole career, and he always had 3rd car at the best and only his god like skill gave him the title.

Same as Sebastian is horrible driver and only car that has similar advantage to ferrari 2002 gave him the titles.


Just in case.someone think it is the truth -> no it isnt, and only a real fanboy would think so.



But to do not.derail the topic we have no idea how it will pan out. It might be as good as williams vs mclaren

Edited by Shiroo, 05 August 2013 - 07:01.

[undersquare]

Why do you count out the rest of the younger field? Perez, Hulk, Bottas, ...? Do you feel that they won't come up to speed?

Well there's not much reason to think so, is there? Hulk isn't young any more and when he finally got into the lead of a race he screwed it up. Perez is looking okay, no more, and Bottas is looking a bit better than Maldonado. Nobody has burst onto the scene the way Alonso, Vettel and Hamilton did. People keeping picking some hopeful like Maldonado or Rosberg or Grosjean but they're not really in the same class, and so the bubble soon bursts.

[BrawnGeePee]

Seb Vs Lewis 2013, as possibly seen currently yes....but 2014...it could become a silly BrawnGP-like season, who knows, so no assumptions yet~

[Shiroo]

Seb Vs Lewis 2013, as possibly seen currently yes....but 2014...it could become a silly BrawnGP-like season, who knows, so no assumptions yet~

sorry for OT once again, but that Brawn-chan is cute.

[Neophiliac]

From 2014 onwards the fight will be between the teams with the best engine (or power unit, but I will type engine because it is shorter). People are underestimating how much the engines will dominate the performance of the car. Some commentators are saying this is the reason Alonso wants out of Ferrari because he has been told their engine will not come near the Mercedes and Renault engines performance. James Allen also alluded to this in a comment reply on his site (how the teams have the numbers/data already available and how those leak to competitors naturally because no one is going to uptalk their engine, just downtalk it as a good reference point).

Mercedes engine seems the best bet by a margin, so in theory the fight will be between Hamilton/Rosberg and one of the McLaren guys, who knows maybe even Force India. Renault will be less thirsty so they can start lighter but RBR has problems with KERS almost every race and next year when that updated system fails, your car stops on track. So in theory RBR should not be able to finish many races.

People are complaining how aero and tyres are dominating F1 too much now..wait until next year when you will only see Mercedes powered cars be in front, every race. What exciting competition that will be...

This might be against the grain of conventional wisdom and is pure armchair analysis, but I actually think power unit performance will not be a differentiator that people think it will be (reliability is a different question). A few reasons
- The boosted ERS is now a much more significant contributor to power overall and its performance is basically fixed at 160 bhp, and I rather doubt teams will come up with hugely divergent solutions or weight savings in terms of battery systems or cooling needs for this part of the package. With 150 of 750 peak hp fixed, you need much more difference in the turbo ICU to really separate out from the pack
- For the remainder of the package - it's just a turbo V6. Not exactly some groundbreaking tech that no one knows how to do. Moreover, the mounting points, crank axis position, CoG, and V-angle are all fixed. Even more, the total possible energy quantum is fixed now due to fuel flow limits.
- So the only place to gain is efficiency. And do we, in all honesty, think that Merc can come up with a 20% more efficient engine than Renault or Ferrari? If they could, why didn't they do so for the V8?

Just have my doubts that there will be more than 20 bhp at the peak separating the manufacturers. Driveability might be different, depending on the solutions for recoverable braking systems and how people choose to marry up the ERS and the ICU, but, again, people are pretty sophisticated about that stuff these days and the ECU is the same, so super clever engine mapping is not really on the table either.

Back on the topic of the post, however, I agree. Mclaren, I think will be in the wilderness in 2014 and probably 2015 while Honda is still feeling their way back into the sport. They're bound to have teething issues - just life. Ferrari seems to be sorely missing the brain power that drained away since Brawn left and also took Aldo Costa with him. For that matter, Mclaren should be feeling Paddy's loss as well - it's not like these teams have infinitely long benches of talented engineers all lined up. And if there's anything that we should have learnt from the years of Red Bull dominance and Merc's latest resurgence it's that engineering talent really matters. Merc and Red Bull, at the moment, seem like the most together teams - with a slight nod to Mercedes for me (simply on the logic that Brawn+Lowe+Costa+Willis>Newey).

[bauss]

This might be against the grain of conventional wisdom and is pure armchair analysis, but I actually think power unit performance will not be a differentiator that people think it will be (reliability is a different question). A few reasons
- The boosted ERS is now a much more significant contributor to power overall and its performance is basically fixed at 160 bhp, and I rather doubt teams will come up with hugely divergent solutions or weight savings in terms of battery systems or cooling needs for this part of the package. With 150 of 750 peak hp fixed, you need much more difference in the turbo ICU to really separate out from the pack
- For the remainder of the package - it's just a turbo V6. Not exactly some groundbreaking tech that no one knows how to do. Moreover, the mounting points, crank axis position, CoG, and V-angle are all fixed. Even more, the total possible energy quantum is fixed now due to fuel flow limits.
- So the only place to gain is efficiency. And do we, in all honesty, think that Merc can come up with a 20% more efficient engine than Renault or Ferrari? If they could, why didn't they do so for the V8?

Just have my doubts that there will be more than 20 bhp at the peak separating the manufacturers. Driveability might be different, depending on the solutions for recoverable braking systems and how people choose to marry up the ERS and the ICU, but, again, people are pretty sophisticated about that stuff these days and the ECU is the same, so super clever engine mapping is not really on the table either.

Back on the topic of the post, however, I agree. Mclaren, I think will be in the wilderness in 2014 and probably 2015 while Honda is still feeling their way back into the sport. They're bound to have teething issues - just life. Ferrari seems to be sorely missing the brain power that drained away since Brawn left and also took Aldo Costa with him. For that matter, Mclaren should be feeling Paddy's loss as well - it's not like these teams have infinitely long benches of talented engineers all lined up. And if there's anything that we should have learnt from the years of Red Bull dominance and Merc's latest resurgence it's that engineering talent really matters. Merc and Red Bull, at the moment, seem like the most together teams - with a slight nod to Mercedes for me (simply on the logic that Brawn+Lowe+Costa+Willis>Newey).

good post IMO

[Gorma]

good post IMO

X2

I think that Red Bull will be one of the teams to benefit from new engines. As they are the new works team for Renault the engine is built to Newey's specs.

[revlec]

It's not surprising that Montezemolo were(is) considering VET and HAM for the future of Ferrari.
They are simply the two best on the grid, and have been for quite a time.

If they had had compliant(and obedient) team mates, they would have easily won more races and championships(look at 2010 and 2012 for example).
The number of times they had shared the front row is telling.
_
Given the right equipment it will between them. So the problem is how good their cars will be in the future.

[03011969]

4) Vettel and Hamilton are currently the two best drivers on the grid. Raikkonen isn't as fast as those two anymore and I don't believe Alonso is either.

Thoughts?

Dream on.

[Radion]

It's not surprising that Montezemolo were(is) considering VET and HAM for the future of Ferrari.
They are simply the two best on the grid, and have been for quite a time.

If they had had compliant(and obedient) team mates, they would have easily won more races and championships(look at 2010 and 2012 for example).
The number of times they had shared the front row is telling.
_
Given the right equipment it will between them. So the problem is how good their cars will be in the future.

Given the right equipment, it'd be between Chilton and Gutierrez...

[tmzxaar]

Dream on.

Great arguments from you!

[camberley]

The following is just my opinion :

OP is one of the many blind Hamilton fans who think he is a the greatest F1 driver since sliced bread.

Hamilton can win races and qualify well --- he is a proven race winner - but when it comes to contending for a WDC he has very minor odds and all those minor odds depend on him getting car that is much superior that the rest over the majority of a season a la the Brawn in 2009 for example (yea I know Button drove the Brawn)

Hamilton has fundamental mental flaws that will not be fixed and because of that the chances he will win another WDC is small. In 2007 it was pure beginner's luck combined with the fact that he had his team favoring him strongly over his teammate. In 2008 His first WDC was also down to beginners luck and the fact that he was only fighting Massa and he almost made a hash of that too.

Beginner's luck is related to the fact that as a rookie you do thinks automatically and the mind does not come affect you. From Wikipedia

Beginner's luck refers to the supposed phenomenon of novices experiencing disproportionate frequency of success or succeeding against an expert in a given activity. One would expect experts to outperform novices - when the opposite happens it is counter-intuitive, hence the need for a term to describe this phenomenon. The term is most often used in reference to a first attempt in sport or gambling, but is also used in many other diverse contexts

Whether or not beginner's luck as a statistical phenomena actually occurs varies by the situation. There are many explanations:
1) Beginner's luck arises from a disconnect between the player and the pressure of the game. A novice player is inexperienced and consequently is not expected to do well. This means that there is no pressure on the player to excel; this lack of pressure allows the player to concentrate more than a pressured veteran player. This contradicts the Rosenthal effect which states that students who are expected to perform better usually perform better.

After mid 2008 when he started getting conscious about his driving, his mental weaknesses took hold. His mental weakness is the inability to be focused over the entire season and above all to choke under pressure of the WDC

His upbringing and feeling of entitlement and the people he surrounds himself with has played a big part in his mental structure and he unable to handle it. He feels he is fully entitled to win WDCs all the time, that he is the greatest ever - comparing himself to Senna etc. is purely delusional


I can safely say that if you bet consistently against him not winning the WDC in the next 10-15 years until he retires you will be very rich.

Raikonnen, Alonso and Vettel are the true WDC contenders and are well above Hamilton when it comes to WDC winning capability. they have the skills and the mental fortitude it takes to contend for a WDC consistently


And I'll end by saying again -- just my opinion. ..... It will be only proven after Hamilton retires. I will not be in the least bit surprised if he does not win another WDC.

Edited by camberley, 05 August 2013 - 12:14.

[WitnessX]

....

Back on the topic of the post, however, I agree. Mclaren, I think will be in the wilderness in 2014 and probably 2015 while Honda is still feeling their way back into the sport. They're bound to have teething issues - just life. Ferrari seems to be sorely missing the brain power that drained away since Brawn left and also took Aldo Costa with him. For that matter, Mclaren should be feeling Paddy's loss as well - it's not like these teams have infinitely long benches of talented engineers all lined up. And if there's anything that we should have learnt from the years of Red Bull dominance and Merc's latest resurgence it's that engineering talent really matters. Merc and Red Bull, at the moment, seem like the most together teams - with a slight nod to Mercedes for me (simply on the logic that Brawn+Lowe+Costa+Willis>Newey).

It can go either way. The "power-train" will be supplied as a complete package from Mercedes together with engineers for it (like they do now). Next year the PR and marketing link up between McLaren and Mercedes will no doubt ramp down, ethicaly I don't see Mercedes not giving full engineering support, nor is it in their interests not to do that. Mercedes, no doubt, want Mercedes powered cars to win - especially in the first year of a new era. Its in their own interests to support their customer teams.

Although Lowe has left McLaren, Tim Goss has taken his place, obviously its to early to judge his competence in the new position, he has built some good cars and has a turbo and powertrain background. His replacement, Matt Morris, obviously knows how to build and package a car well. This is hugely important because the whole packaging of the car is going to change. The powertrain is only the part of it - the exhaust pipe(s), the fuel cell (smaller), battery (bigger), radiators (smaller) and the biggest addition is the "intercooler" which will need the space of a current radiator.

The packaging will affect what you can do with the aerodynamics. This is a problem all teams are facing in their designs, being inventive and getting it right will be the key to the season. Although the team appeared to have a "brainfade" on the '28 design (and lets not forget Lowe was a key figure in that) I doubt that will happen again. I have heard comments that the RBR, for example, is an overall downforce efficient car, however this is obtained as the expense of high density packaging which makes it susceptible to having overheated components.

McLaren still have top resources and facilities. I also would not underestimate Honda's competence in producing a good, reliable, out-of-the-box power-train, especially as they will be working directly with McLaren during its development.

[tmzxaar]

@camberely

You could use a reality check

[apoka]

I can safely say that if you bet consistently against him not winning the WDC in the next 10-15 years until he retires you will be very rich.

Raikonnen, Alonso and Vettel are the true WDC contenders and are well above Hamilton when it comes to WDC winning capability. they have the skills and the mental fortitude it takes to contend for a WDC consistently

And I'll end by saying again -- just my opinion. ..... It will be only proven after Hamilton retires. I will not be in the least bit surprised if he does not win another WDC.

The performance of Hamilton over the previous years can hardly be just down to beginner's luck. Apart from 2011, he put together remarkable seasons driving wise.

[03011969]

Great arguments from you!

Let me elucidate. The comment made about only SV and LH being first class and FA and KR being slower was comically inept and not supported by any facts or even vaguely informed opinion.

To wit, only in ones unconscious nocturnal imaginings could one form the idea, let alone be a proponent thereof, that SV and LH are a class apart from FA and KR.

Edited by 3011969, 05 August 2013 - 12:36.

[Alcibiades]

The following is just my opinion :

OP is one of the many blind Hamilton fans who think he is a the greatest F1 driver since sliced bread.

Hamilton can win races and qualify well --- he is a proven race winner - but when it comes to contending for a WDC he has very minor odds and all those minor odds depend on him getting car that is much superior that the rest over the majority of a season a la the Brawn in 2009 for example (yea I know Button drove the Brawn)

Hamilton has fundamental mental flaws that will not be fixed and because of that the chances he will win another WDC is small. In 2007 it was pure beginner's luck combined with the fact that he had his team favoring him strongly over his teammate. In 2008 His first WDC was also down to beginners luck and the fact that he was only fighting Massa and he almost made a hash of that too.

Beginner's luck is related to the fact that as a rookie you do thinks automatically and the mind does not come affect you. From Wikipedia

Beginner's luck refers to the supposed phenomenon of novices experiencing disproportionate frequency of success or succeeding against an expert in a given activity. One would expect experts to outperform novices - when the opposite happens it is counter-intuitive, hence the need for a term to describe this phenomenon. The term is most often used in reference to a first attempt in sport or gambling, but is also used in many other diverse contexts

Whether or not beginner's luck as a statistical phenomena actually occurs varies by the situation. There are many explanations:
1) Beginner's luck arises from a disconnect between the player and the pressure of the game. A novice player is inexperienced and consequently is not expected to do well. This means that there is no pressure on the player to excel; this lack of pressure allows the player to concentrate more than a pressured veteran player. This contradicts the Rosenthal effect which states that students who are expected to perform better usually perform better.

After mid 2008 when he started getting conscious about his driving, his mental weaknesses took hold. His mental weakness is the inability to be focused over the entire season and above all to choke under pressure of the WDC

His upbringing and feeling of entitlement and the people he surrounds himself with has played a big part in his mental structure and he unable to handle it. He feels he is fully entitled to win WDCs all the time, that he is the greatest ever - comparing himself to Senna etc. is purely delusional


I can safely say that if you bet consistently against him not winning the WDC in the next 10-15 years until he retires you will be very rich.

Raikonnen, Alonso and Vettel are the true WDC contenders and are well above Hamilton when it comes to WDC winning capability. they have the skills and the mental fortitude it takes to contend for a WDC consistently


And I'll end by saying again -- just my opinion. ..... It will be only proven after Hamilton retires. I will not be in the least bit surprised if he does not win another WDC.

Well you're entitled to your opinion but I think your post displays a poor understanding of Hamilton. For a start your beginners luck argument doesn't stack up. Hamitlon had been driving at a high level of international competition for many years before taking the big step up to F1. The level of pressure he drove under in his first year in 2007 against the current world champion was immense. He was not perfect under that pressure but he didn't crumble either. In fact in some ways it was Alonso that struggled more that year (spinning out of races etc.). He was having to think and plan and deal with all that was going on around him at a young age and in the midst of spygate.
He hasn't shown much mental weakness in my view. He has had to learn his lessons but if you look at 2012 he drove a more faultless campaign arguably than any of the other top drivers. He retained his innate speed but learned to display the calmness and strategic thinking of an experienced team leader. It was McLaren and the car that let him down. He has grown from his start in the sport. Not been exposed as mentally weak. What do you think is the issue with his upbringing and feeling of entitlement? He comes from a fairly ordinary background and had to struggle at times. The only sense of entitlement that he has is the same one as Alonso and Vettel also has. He has been a winner throughout his career and thinks he should have the car to make the most of his talents. Most would agree that we want the best drivers fighting it out in the best cars. It might be good if you admit that you just don't like him!

Edited by Alcibiades, 05 August 2013 - 12:44.

[bub]

This post doesn't really deserve a reply but I'm curious...

Hamilton has fundamental mental flaws that will not be fixed and because of that the chances he will win another WDC is small.

What are you basing this on?

After mid 2008 when he started getting conscious about his driving, his mental weaknesses took hold. His mental weakness is the inability to be focused over the entire season and above all to choke under pressure of the WDC

Any examples of this? It seems you are basing your opinion of Hamilton entirely on 2011 and ignoring every other year.

Edited by bub, 05 August 2013 - 13:49.

[velgajski1]

I can safely say that if you bet consistently against him not winning the WDC in the next 10-15 years until he retires you will be very rich.

So, what kind of odds would you give me for €1000 if I claim he will win at least one WDC before his retirement?

[Juggles]

I see. I misunderstood. 'Sorry bout that.

No problem. I do agree with your point that 2010 - 2013 was much more complex than "Alonso taking the fight to Vettel;" it's a massive simplification which I made partly because it led nicely into the thread title. I should clarify that when I say Vettel vs Hamilton it's not as if I expect them to win all 20 races between them; rather, I expect that at least a couple of times they will be the last two drivers in contention for the championship.

Why do you count out the rest of the younger field? Perez, Hulk, Bottas, ...? Do you feel that they won't come up to speed?

Perhaps one or more of those guys has the ability but where is the opportunity going to come from over the next few years (which is basically the timeframe I'm talking about)?

My original post is founded on the belief that Red Bull and Mercedes will get it right from 2014 (more right than their competitors). I've seen the Brawn example cited a few times but I think a recurrence is less likely given the top teams have been focusing on their 2014 cars for so long (unlike McLaren and Ferrari in 2008); I also don't see a team with massive financial clout and a genius designer floating around the midfield a la Red Bull in 08. There was a report recently that all the teams bar Red Bull, Mercedes, McLaren and Ferrari are in financial difficulty and I've given a few reasons why I don't think the latter two will be on the same level as the first two.

So even if a Hulkenberg or a Bottas gets into a more competitive car than they are currently in I believe they will have to beat at least one of Hamilton or Vettel in a better car, which I don't think they are good enough to do. Of course they could be paired with one of Vettel or Hamilton as a teammate, in which case they would have to beat one of those drivers in equal machinery. Ricciardo beating Vettel or Hulkenberg beating Hamilton when Hamilton is now in his prime and Vettel arguably just entering his? I just don't see it. People talk very highly of drivers like Frijns, Sainz Jr and Antonio Felix da Costa but they won't make it to the front of the grid in time to clash with my prediction.