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Place The Points Competition 2014 final standings after Abu Dhabi


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#1 Makarias

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Posted 24 November 2014 - 18:11

2014 final standings after Abu Dhabi:

Pos Name             Tot Latest
1)  noikeee          1602  35
2)  Makarias         1592  49
3)  kismet           1561  41
4)  fisichella_2001  1542  30
5)  AcuraF1          1526  25
6)  mark f1          1523  41
7)  skylark68        1519  35
8)  LB               1518  35
9)  Brawn BGP 001    1515  29
10) scheivlak        1510  46
11) Anderis          1509  41
12) DutchQuicksilver 1498  41
13) Bleu             1490  16
14) d_view7          1487  22
15) Iranie           1486  37
16) aray             1485  43
17) Estwald          1484  45
18) Wlleiotl         1483  51
19) Kingshark        1482  27
=   wattoroos        1482  37
21) Grayson          1465  34
22) M2000-5          1459  56
23) Wander           1455  21
24) HeidfeldsBeard   1453  28
25) Apex             1450  13
26) Barty            1449  13
27) KWSN-DSM         1432  57
28) Fastcake         1421  34
29) Costaz           1379  45
30) an1res           1352  35

Congratulations to noikeee :clap: :clap: :clap: who STEALS the 2014 PTPC championship from
the just slightly devastated runner-up Makarias :clap: :clap:
with third place finisher kismet :clap: further behind.

The entries


PTPC Hall of Fame

Year  WDC   Game         Pl  Winner
 AD  Points  Win   %     #
2000   442   365  82.58  14  jack and gilles
2001   442   364  82.35  69  MrT, tacololo
2002   442   376  85.07  46  smarty
2003   624   537  86.06  41  arcsine
2004   702   554  78.98  48  Pioneer
2005   741   595  80.30  49  KWSN-DSM
2006   702   592  84.33  47  an1res
2007   663   563  84.92  40  turin
2008   702   597  85.04  39  AcuraF1
2009   731   518  70.86  29  D82
2010  1919  1674  87.23  34  Costaz
2011  1919  1664  86.71  25  Crazy Canuck
2012  2020  1706  84.46  28  Costaz
2013  1919  1656  86.29  27  scheivlak
2014  1919  1602  83.48  30  noikeee

The Drivers' list


Driver Expect  Surprise Beat
           %        %     #
Ricc    271,4    166,2   30
Verg    153,1     53,7   24
Bott    149,1    100,0   30
Hami    139,2     99,4   29
Rosb    128,5    106,7   30
Vett    110,0     79,5   18
Hülk    104,5     71,5   16
Mass     93,7     56,9   13
Pere     86,5     52,5   10
Alon     78,5     57,0    0
Butt     75,7     48,5    7
Kvya     71,6     22,2   13
Magn     46,3     31,6    0
Bian     45,1      7,7   11
Räik     31,4     20,1    0
Gros     17,6      8,8    1
Mald      6,8      2,7    2

Nico Hülkenberg is the seventh driver to beat his expectation mark and with the slightest of margins Valtteri Bottas becomes the third 100% surprise of 2014!

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2014 this is 30.


Guesses on P1-P5:

Hamilton               Massa                  Bottas                 Ricciardo              Button              
M2000-5         360    M2000-5         203    * Potential     171    * Potential     226    Costaz          238
* Potential     359    Wlleiotl        200    * Forecast      171    * Forecast      226    Barty           237
* Forecast      359    Estwald         180    * Current       171    * Current       226    Apex            230
* Current       359    KWSN-DSM        169    Wlleiotl        170    kismet          135    Brawn BGP 001   224
Apex            324    noikeee         169    KWSN-DSM        168    aray            132    Fastcake        221
LB              320    wattoroos       153    noikeee         160    Makarias        131    LB              200
noikeee         298    DutchQuicksilver142    Barty           145    mark f1         125    Estwald         177
Brawn BGP 001   284    Iranie          140    AcuraF1         144    d_view7         124    Wander          171
Bleu            280    kismet          140    Iranie          140    AcuraF1         111    scheivlak       162
AcuraF1         275    LB              140    Anderis         137    DutchQuicksilver102    KWSN-DSM        160
fisichella_2001 275    AcuraF1         133    Makarias        132    HeidfeldsBeard  102    noikeee         155
kismet          270    aray            130    d_view7         130    Barty            92    Kingshark       151
Anderis         268    Makarias        126    wattoroos       130    skylark68        89    Wlleiotl        150
skylark68       268    Fastcake        121    Estwald         121    Brawn BGP 001    88    skylark68       149
Wander          265    an1res          120    fisichella_2001 121    Bleu             87    DutchQuicksilver146
scheivlak       258    Anderis         119    an1res          120    noikeee          87    Makarias        146
wattoroos       255    Costaz          119    LB              120    Estwald          84    HeidfeldsBeard  145
Fastcake        252    * Potential     116    Brawn BGP 001   118    fisichella_2001  83    kismet          145
Wlleiotl        250    * Forecast      116    scheivlak       116    wattoroos        82    aray            140
DutchQuicksilver248    * Current       116    Grayson         110    Kingshark        81    M2000-5         140
Makarias        248    mark f1         115    Wander          107    Grayson          80    Grayson         125
Kingshark       247    scheivlak       113    M2000-5         106    Iranie           80    Iranie          125
Grayson         245    Grayson         105    Fastcake        101    Wander           78    wattoroos       119
Estwald         242    skylark68       102    Bleu            100    an1res           75    * Potential     116
HeidfeldsBeard  240    Brawn BGP 001   100    kismet          100    Anderis          67    * Forecast      116
Barty           239    fisichella_2001 100    DutchQuicksilver 96    Fastcake         66    * Current       116
aray            238    Kingshark        94    Kingshark        96    Apex             60    mark f1         115
KWSN-DSM        238    Apex             90    aray             95    Costaz           57    fisichella_2001 113
Costaz          237    d_view7          85    mark f1          90    LB               55    Anderis         112
Iranie          227    Wander           82    skylark68        89    Wlleiotl         50    Bleu            110
mark f1         225    Bleu             80    Apex             70    scheivlak        49    d_view7         110
d_view7         203    HeidfeldsBeard   76    HeidfeldsBeard   62    KWSN-DSM         40    an1res          100
an1res          160    Barty            70    Costaz           46    M2000-5           6    AcuraF1          79

Bottas did exactly what was needed to get to the 100% surprise, which Hamilton didn't quite manage to do. Massa showed good form late in the season after plenty of troubles earlier. If this turns out to have Button's last season in F1 he can still be proud of it; that car was a disappointment.

Guesses on P6-P10:

Hülkenberg             Perez                  Vettel                 Alonso                 Räikkönen           
skylark68       122    an1res          100    fisichella_2001 204    M2000-5         278    M2000-5         267
KWSN-DSM        110    skylark68        91    kismet          200    HeidfeldsBeard  256    d_view7         258
Makarias        110    KWSN-DSM         90    aray            194    aray            252    AcuraF1         215
Costaz          109    Costaz           87    skylark68       189    AcuraF1         235    Barty           204
Kingshark       102    Wlleiotl         80    AcuraF1         188    an1res          225    Costaz          203
an1res          100    Makarias         77    scheivlak       186    d_view7         222    Iranie          200
Estwald          98    Iranie           75    Makarias        184    fisichella_2001 217    Wander          192
scheivlak        96    Grayson          70    DutchQuicksilver181    LB              215    Fastcake        188
Anderis          94    Kingshark        70    Bleu            180    Costaz          210    DutchQuicksilver179
Brawn BGP 001    92    mark f1          70    HeidfeldsBeard  172    Fastcake        209    HeidfeldsBeard  178
fisichella_2001  92    Anderis          68    LB              170    Barty           204    Kingshark       177
Grayson          92    Brawn BGP 001    66    d_view7         168    Anderis         201    wattoroos       177
aray             90    DutchQuicksilver 66    * Potential     163    DutchQuicksilver201    an1res          175
* Potential      88    fisichella_2001  66    * Forecast      163    Iranie          200    Bleu            171
HeidfeldsBeard   88    scheivlak        64    * Current       163    kismet          200    LB              165
* Forecast       88    d_view7          63    mark f1         160    wattoroos       196    Anderis         164
* Current        88    Estwald          61    Kingshark       159    Wander          195    KWSN-DSM        163
d_view7          85    kismet           60    Wander          150    Bleu            194    Apex            160
mark f1          85    Wander           58    Costaz          148    Brawn BGP 001   194    aray            160
Fastcake         83    wattoroos        56    Grayson         145    skylark68       192    Grayson         155
Wander           82    * Potential      53    Iranie          145    Apex            190    Makarias        153
Wlleiotl         80    * Forecast       53    Barty           138    KWSN-DSM        190    scheivlak       152
Iranie           75    * Current        53    noikeee         136    Grayson         184    mark f1         150
kismet           75    Bleu             52    wattoroos       133    scheivlak       184    Wlleiotl        150
DutchQuicksilver 71    HeidfeldsBeard   50    Brawn BGP 001   131    Makarias        183    fisichella_2001 148
Apex             70    Apex             45    an1res          130    Kingshark       178    skylark68       148
wattoroos        68    AcuraF1          44    Apex            110    mark f1         175    kismet          145
M2000-5          67    Fastcake         44    Estwald         106    Wlleiotl        170    Estwald         135
noikeee          65    M2000-5          43    Anderis         104    Estwald         162    noikeee         121
Bleu             63    noikeee          43    Fastcake         98    noikeee         162    Brawn BGP 001   111
AcuraF1          61    aray             30    KWSN-DSM         80    * Potential     159    * Potential      54
LB               60    LB               25    Wlleiotl         80    * Forecast      159    * Forecast       54
Barty            42    Barty            24    M2000-5          76    * Current       159    * Current        54

Hülkenberg had 100% surprise pace in the first half of the season, but he dropped off quite a bit later on. Decent finale at least! Ferrari will want to forget about this season asap...


The PTPC forecast after Brazil

Name             Forecast  +/-
noikeee          1595,6   17,3
Makarias         1585,5   16,2
kismet           1558,5   16,2
fisichella_2001  1551,6   12,1
AcuraF1          1530,6   12,8
skylark68        1525,1   14,8
LB               1518,4   19,6
mark f1          1518,4   12,9
Brawn BGP 001    1516,7   11,0
scheivlak        1507,1   15,6
Bleu             1505,3    4,0
Anderis          1503,4   12,9
d_view7          1500,2    3,6
DutchQuicksilver 1495,2   16,6
Kingshark        1483,8    4,8
aray             1482,3   18,6
Iranie           1478,8   14,8
wattoroos        1476,0   13,4
Wlleiotl         1470,4    9,4
Estwald          1468,9   15,7
Grayson          1465,2   14,3
HeidfeldsBeard   1462,1    8,1
Wander           1459,8    4,7
Apex             1458,3    7,5
Barty            1457,1    7,8
M2000-5          1444,6   19,5
KWSN-DSM         1417,9   10,9
Fastcake         1417,1   17,8
Costaz           1367,7   14,9
an1res           1346,6    6,1

On average the final scores ended up a bit higher than the forecasts due to Rosberg's no-scorer...


The best guesses on each driver

 X    #   !  Y
Hami 359 360 M2000-5
Rosb 317 296 M2000-5
Ricc 226 135 kismet
Bott 171 170 Wlleiotl
Vett 163 160 mark f1
Alon 159 162 noikeee
Mass 116 115 mark f1
Butt 116 115 mark f1
Hülk  88  88 HeidfeldsBeard
Magn  55  62 AcuraF1
Räik  54 111 Brawn BGP 001
Pere  53  52 Bleu
Verg  22  22 Iranie
Gros   8  10 KWSN-DSM, LB
Kvya   8   9 Kingshark, kismet
Mald   2   0 Barty, M2000-5
Bian   2   2 5 players
Suti   0   8 noikeee
Eric   0   0 19 players
Guti   0   2 M2000-5
Chil   0   0 15 players
Koba   0   0 14 players
Stev   0   0 All 30 players
Lott   0   0 All 30 players

Gotta be impressed with how mark f1 nailed a Massa-Button draw that well!

Reality check on some of our predictions

Popularity Poll WCC prediction:

Team   Pred  Off
Merc   505  +171
Ferr   375  -162
McLa   272  -101
Will   239  + 48
RBR    231  +158
FoIn   145  -  4
Lotu    75  - 65
Saub    42  - 42
STR     25  +  5
Maru     7  -  5
Cate     3  -  3  

Some guesses were way off here, but we also predicted Williams' rise pretty well and the Force India rating was almost spot on.

Teammate battles: Which driver is expected to outscore his teammate?

Owner               Owned Comment  
     <-     =    ->       
Vett  30    0    0  Ricc  Utter bollocks
Gros  27    3    0  Mald  Correct
Hülk  27    3    0  Pere  Correct
Alon  27    2    1  Räik  Correct
Suti  27    2    1  Guti  Draw
Butt  26    3    1  Magn  Correct
Bian  21    8    1  Chil  Correct
Hami  20    1    9  Rosb  Correct
Verg  18    5    7  Kvya  Correct
Mass  16    2   12  Bott  Wrong
Koba  12   16    2  Eric  Correct (draw)

Not too bad guesses, with one glaring exception.

2014 is over although formally we'll have to suffer through December as well. Keep an eye out for this game to return on the radar a few weeks before the 2015 season opener. Happy new year! :)

 



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#2 noikeee

noikeee
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Posted 24 November 2014 - 19:03

After almost ten years of BB membership it was about time I won something. :p

Gg Makarias, that was close.

#3 KWSN - DSM

KWSN - DSM
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Posted 24 November 2014 - 20:34

Hearty congratulations to noikeee on winning this the most prestigious of all the games. :clap: :clap: :clap:   A thank you :up:  to Makarias for running the game. :clap: :clap:   In a year of tremendous underachievement I still managed a 'win' (shared with LB) in getting how poorly Grosjean would do almost correct. Next year is my year, see you all then.

 

:cool:



#4 M2000-5

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Posted 25 November 2014 - 08:49

Congratulations noikee, a well deserved win :clap:

 

A big thank you to Makarias who runs the game and provides all that number crunching to keep us well informed.

 

As for myself, at least I climbed a bit from the bottom of the well this time (my points on the Merc duo saved me, while my points on the two Red Bulls, well, no comment :p )

 

Not that it matters, I got KMag's points correct at 55.

 

See you all in 3 months or so!

 

Mat