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Who will be 106th F1 race winner?


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#1 RekF1

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Posted 25 November 2014 - 20:55

Who will be the next driver to become a winner of an f1 grand Prix?

A total of 744 people have started an f1 grand Prix, with only 105 people to have ever won.

Giuseppe Farina was the first gp winner in 1950. Kovalainen was the 100th, with only 5 more drivers over the next 6 seasons joining that list. Obviously Danny Ric was the latest.

I'll guess Bottas or Perez will join the club next, but I don't see it happening next year.



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#2 Boxerevo

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Posted 25 November 2014 - 20:57

Chances:

 

1-  Kvyat

2- Bottas



#3 Risil

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Posted 25 November 2014 - 20:57

Kvyat's gotta be a good bet.



#4 RedBaron

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Posted 25 November 2014 - 21:00

Vandoorne



#5 DILLIGAF

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Posted 25 November 2014 - 21:02

Bottas

#6 GoldenColt

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Posted 25 November 2014 - 21:06

Hugo Hakkinen.



#7 alframsey

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Posted 25 November 2014 - 21:10

Bottas or Kvyat are the obvious two, Hulkenburg as some point will win. Possibly Magnussen should the McLaren be there abouts next season and he is kept on?



#8 ollebompa

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Posted 25 November 2014 - 21:12

I think the top talet is set for the future and taking a win from these will be hard. I rekon it will be someone who's not in F1 yet.

 

I have a hard time seeing anybody else but Danny Ric, Seb , LH, Fred, Keke Jr., JB or Kimi taking a win in the next few years.


Edited by ollebompa, 25 November 2014 - 21:16.


#9 RekF1

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Posted 25 November 2014 - 21:17

Bottas or Kvyat are the obvious two, Hulkenburg as some point will win. Possibly Magnussen should the McLaren be there abouts next season and he is kept on?


I'm not do sure about Hulk myself. He's still never been on the podium, and opportunity has knocked a couple of times. I hope you're right because I used to rate him, but now he seems like a bottler.

#10 bourbon

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Posted 25 November 2014 - 21:21

Kvyat

Bottas

Hulkenberg/Perez (with a good car)



#11 Buccaneer

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Posted 25 November 2014 - 21:24

Most likely it will be Bottas to be first of the current field to get their maiden win.



#12 Zoetrope

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Posted 25 November 2014 - 21:55

Even if Red Bull deliver next year, Kvyat will have it hard with Ricciardo as team mate. If Williams keep up, Bottas has a chance. Other than that, I can't see any other team winning in 2015. And beyond that the grid can get shaken up badly once again.



#13 redraven9

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Posted 25 November 2014 - 21:58

Bottas is my bet

But it all depends on future cars



#14 sniper80

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Posted 25 November 2014 - 22:01

Max Verstappen, obviously....  ;)



#15 alframsey

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Posted 25 November 2014 - 22:22

I'm not do sure about Hulk myself. He's still never been on the podium, and opportunity has knocked a couple of times. I hope you're right because I used to rate him, but now he seems like a bottler.

I still think the talent is there tbh and I don't think he has bottled it, Perez might be the one on the podium but Hulk is the better racing driver. Give him a fast enough car and he will definitely win a race, I still rate him as one for the future as well. He is a massively talented driver as has been proven many time, and you don't just lose that.



#16 Kristian

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Posted 25 November 2014 - 22:24

Its interesting actually how few new winners we get these days....

 

2000 - 1

2001 - 2

2002 - 0

2003 - 3

2004 - 1

 

2005 - 0

2006 - 2

2007 - 1

2008 - 3

2009 - 1

 

2010 - 0

2011 - 0

2012 - 2

2013 - 0

2014 - 1

 

Basically, in the last 5 years we have had 3 new winners. In the 5 years before that it was 7, and in the 5 years before that it was also 7 (which is impressive considering much of that sample was the Ferrari domination years!). 

 

I'm guessing the lack of in-season testing since 2009 is the big factor in this. 



#17 Murl

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Posted 25 November 2014 - 22:44

Its interesting actually how few new winners we get these days....

 

2000 - 1

2001 - 2

2002 - 0

2003 - 3

2004 - 1

 

2005 - 0

2006 - 2

2007 - 1

2008 - 3

2009 - 1

 

2010 - 0

2011 - 0

2012 - 2

2013 - 0

2014 - 1

 

Basically, in the last 5 years we have had 3 new winners. In the 5 years before that it was 7, and in the 5 years before that it was also 7 (which is impressive considering much of that sample was the Ferrari domination years!). 

 

I'm guessing the lack of in-season testing since 2009 is the big factor in this. 

 

 

I also think the excessive reliability of modern cars plays a part.

In the olden days there would usually be a couple of newbie winners each season.
 



#18 Kristian

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Posted 25 November 2014 - 22:48

I also think the excessive reliability of modern cars plays a part.

In the olden days there would usually be a couple of newbie winners each season.
 

 

True. And also wet races used to produce lotteries, but not so anymore really as they are so neutralised. 



#19 keiichi

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Posted 25 November 2014 - 22:54

For me it has to be Bottas. I believe this season was a crucial experience for him to mature in a competitive car, and surely if Williams can get that little bit closer to Mercedes next year, he'll be in a position to take the next step.

 

Hulkenberg and Perez are surely two other guys that I have no doubt in my mind that if they have the car that can give them such oportunity, they'll be race winners.

 

Kvyat could possibly be another one, but Ricciardo will surely make it very difficult for him. Time will tell...



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#20 crbassassin

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Posted 25 November 2014 - 23:02

Me



#21 Blanchimont2002

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Posted 25 November 2014 - 23:14

Kyvat or Bottas...tough to call, but I'd say Kyvat

#22 RubalSher

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Posted 25 November 2014 - 23:25

Bottas.

 

I think Kvyat will be easily shown up by RIC and Kvyat did not even impress much in race pace this year. For those who forget, he was outscored 22-8 by Vergne this year and Kvyat's best race finish this year was 9th.



#23 noikeee

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Posted 25 November 2014 - 23:55

Don't completely rule out Grosjean, it's hard to imagine it now but he was a popular bet this time last year.

 

Realistically Kvyat would have the best odds by the seat he has.



#24 ANF

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Posted 26 November 2014 - 01:12

Its interesting actually how few new winners we get these days....

 

2000 - 1

2001 - 2

2002 - 0

2003 - 3

2004 - 1

 

2005 - 0

2006 - 2

2007 - 1

2008 - 3

2009 - 1

 

2010 - 0

2011 - 0

2012 - 2

2013 - 0

2014 - 1

 

Basically, in the last 5 years we have had 3 new winners. In the 5 years before that it was 7, and in the 5 years before that it was also 7 (which is impressive considering much of that sample was the Ferrari domination years!). 

 

I'm guessing the lack of in-season testing since 2009 is the big factor in this. 

I think the main reason is that almost every race-winning car in 2010–2014 was driven by someone who had already won a grand prix.



#25 George Costanza

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Posted 26 November 2014 - 04:49

I think the main reason is that almost every race-winning car in 2010–2014 was driven by someone who had already won a grand prix.

 

Pretty much this...



#26 emmanuelrubi

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Posted 26 November 2014 - 04:56

If this guy could the chances are that anyone on a decent car scoring a win are high. Maldonado.jpg



#27 Rob

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Posted 26 November 2014 - 10:40

Kvyat has the car advantage but if Williams are at a similar level to this year in 2015 then I think Bottas might sneak a win first.



#28 Kristian

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Posted 26 November 2014 - 11:03

Williams this year were like BAR in 2004 - any other season they would have won a few races, but they just weren't in the right place when the dominant team slipped up despite being the closest challengers most of the time. Otherwise we would have had a couple of Bottas victories IMO. 



#29 ApexOversteer

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Posted 26 November 2014 - 11:45

Hülkenberg / Bottas

#30 TomNokoe

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Posted 26 November 2014 - 12:08

Williams missed a few big opportunities this year, namely Austria, Canada and Spa. I wonder if they'll live to regret these.

#31 kwikmike

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Posted 26 November 2014 - 12:13

I think Bottas & Kvyat will both be GP winners at the end of next year. However Bottas probably has the advantage of the Merc engine early next year. So my bet will be: Bottas nr.106 and Kvyat nr.107



#32 GoGro

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Posted 26 November 2014 - 12:23

My heart says Grosjean, my brain tells me Kvyat. But I really hope Romain is going to make it, Panis 1996 is way to far.



#33 Tsarwash

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Posted 26 November 2014 - 13:03

Williams missed a few big opportunities this year, namely Austria, Canada and Spa. I wonder if they'll live to regret these.

Just to be picky, I don't see how Bottas missed an opportunity to win at Canada this year, 



#34 Gyan

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Posted 26 November 2014 - 14:19

Bottas or Kvyat. Both should be in with a good chance to grab a win next season tbh.



#35 HeadFirst

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Posted 26 November 2014 - 14:28

Grosjean, Bottas.



#36 RekF1

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Posted 26 November 2014 - 14:59

For me, Grosjean has had even better opportunities than Hulk to win a race. I can't see it happening. I think Jules was the best Frenchman on the grid for a long time. Such a shame.

#37 BRG

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Posted 26 November 2014 - 16:30

For me, Grosjean has had even better opportunities than Hulk to win a race. I can't see it happening. I think Jules was the best Frenchman on the grid for a long time. Such a shame.

Leaving aside Bianchi's tragic crash, he was never going to be as good as Grosjean who is the real deal IMO, although Lotus have done their best to cover up his potential.  With a Mercedes motor next year, he could be the one. Or Bottas.  Hulkenberg and Perez will manage to trip themselves up as usual, even if they have a car capable of winning which is doubtful. Kvyat may win but not yet.  



#38 rammsteinfan

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Posted 26 November 2014 - 16:44

I expect Botas, Kvyat or Grosjean will be the 106th GP winner with outsiders Hulkenberg and Verstappen.



#39 TomNokoe

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Posted 26 November 2014 - 17:02

Just to be picky, I don't see how Bottas missed an opportunity to win at Canada this year,

Sorry, of course this is about new winners, and it was Massa in Canada.

I think it'll be a while nonetheless.

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#40 DutchQuicksilver

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Posted 26 November 2014 - 17:17

Kvyat looks most likely, but only a possible fluke win. I just don't see him being strong enough (yet) to win a race on his own strength.



#41 Jimisgod

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Posted 26 November 2014 - 17:24

Bottas then Kvyat.

#42 Atreiu

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Posted 26 November 2014 - 18:08

Magnussen, hopefully.


Edited by Atreiu, 26 November 2014 - 18:09.


#43 SpartanChas

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Posted 26 November 2014 - 20:04

I'm still waiting for Grosjean to get that first win I thought he was going to get in 2012. Ah well.

 

If I was going to put money on someone it would be Bottas.



#44 Kac

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Posted 27 November 2014 - 03:06

Don't completely rule out Grosjean, it's hard to imagine it now but he was a popular bet this time last year.

 

Realistically Kvyat would have the best odds by the seat he has.

That's what I thought too...

My money is on GRO and BOT..Can't decide between the two.



#45 DainBramaged

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Posted 27 November 2014 - 03:34

Off topic, but I fancied a go at figuring out who the new winners were for each year. My memory's not the best, but I think I have a few. Feel free to correct me or add in missing drivers.

 

2000 - 1  Barrichello

2001 - 2  Ralf, Montoya

2002 - 0

2003 - 3  Alonso, Raikkonen, Pass (although Trulli or Fisi would have been my guess)

2004 - 1  Pass

 

2005 - 0

2006 - 2  Button, Massa

2007 - 1  Hamilton

2008 - 3  Kubica, Vettel, Kovalinen (not sure of spelling)

2009 - 1  Webber

 

2010 - 0

2011 - 0

2012 - 2  Maldonado, Rosberg 

2013 - 0

2014 - 1  Ricciardo 

 

Think I have most of them although I haven't checked. It's funny, I remembered the earlier ones than I did the 2012 answers. Some help on 2003/4 would be good.



#46 secessionman

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Posted 27 November 2014 - 05:21

Off topic, but I fancied a go at figuring out who the new winners were for each year. My memory's not the best, but I think I have a few. Feel free to correct me or add in missing drivers.

 

2000 - 1  Barrichello

2001 - 2  Ralf, Montoya

2002 - 0

2003 - 3  Alonso, Raikkonen, Pass (although Trulli or Fisi would have been my guess)

2004 - 1  Pass

 

2005 - 0

2006 - 2  Button, Massa

2007 - 1  Hamilton

2008 - 3  Kubica, Vettel, Kovalinen (not sure of spelling)

2009 - 1  Webber

 

2010 - 0

2011 - 0

2012 - 2  Maldonado, Rosberg 

2013 - 0

2014 - 1  Ricciardo 

 

Think I have most of them although I haven't checked. It's funny, I remembered the earlier ones than I did the 2012 answers. Some help on 2003/4 would be good.

 

2003 - Fisi Brazil

 

2004 - Trulli Monaco



#47 Jimisgod

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Posted 27 November 2014 - 07:16

Grosjean? The guy who lost to Kimi over two years before Kimi was trounced by Alonso?

I rate him Perez level. Maybe a fluke win one day but surely Bottas and Hulkenberg are way ahead.

#48 garoidb

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Posted 27 November 2014 - 08:29

Felipe Massa 2.0



#49 fifi

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Posted 27 November 2014 - 08:53

another one who would say kyvat or bottas



#50 Jackmancer

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Posted 27 November 2014 - 09:10

One of the Merc drivers catches a fever, Wehrlein to win a maiden GP in 2015.