3940 replies to this topic

[SR388]

Who will tonk whom this season? Who holds the keys to victory? Who wants it more? Who has that look in his eye? Who has the EDGE?

I think Lewis will take the title in a very convincing fashion.

Current stats:

Edited by SR388, 12 April 2015 - 13:48.

[Turbo1]

I don't think Hamilton can perform as worse in qualifying as he did last year, which is what flattered Rosberg greatly. If he drives to his potential in qualifying and nails his laps, then he can shut Rosberg out in 2015, which is my prediction. I also think a big reason for this is having the monkey off his back and finally winning the title again has taken massive pressure off him, which will result in a more care free Lewis like in 2007.

Edited by Turbo1, 12 March 2015 - 02:08.

[SR388]

I don't Hamilton can perform as worse in qualifying as he did last year, which is what flattered Rosberg greatly. If he drives to his potential in qualifying and nails his laps, then he can shut Rosberg out in 2015, which is my prediction. I also think a big reason for this having the monkey off his back and finally winning the title again has taken massive pressure off him, which will result in a more care free Lewis like in 2007.

If you listen to Lewis before Abu dhabi, he was remarkably calm and cool on race day. If he can bring that sort of peace to every race weekend, then we can expect many happy Sunday's.

[HoldenRT]

Hard to choose against Lewis, hard to find any reason to but it'll be interesting to see how close it is and if Nico can raise his level.

[aramos]

Last season was generally very strong by Lewis. Rosberg is no pushover and he had a tenth or two on him in race pace all season long.

[teejay]

Rosberg to get beaten like a Top Gear producer

[DrF]

Nico in quali, Lewis in races but too many DNFs for Lewis will hand Nico the title.

[Ev0d3vil]

We can make driver threads already?;p

[GoldenColt]

I'm expecting Lewis to be in great shape but once again, it also depends on how the racing gods will interfere.

 

Another WDC and most probably more wins than Senna would be a great thing to witness for me at the end of the season, so there's a lot to be looking forward to.

[TomNokoe]

WE HAVE ARRIVED

[TF110]

Without reliability woes, I think it'll be hard to go against Lewis this year (or any year for that matter). He has the car and the team, and for the first time, a legitimate shot at a title defense. Something he couldn't do jn '09.

Nico will be strong but Lewis's race pace in the early races last year showed his edge when things are down to the drivers. I dont wanna open a can of worms, but I think the data sharing helped Rosberg in that area. Wonder if the same will be in place this year? Another thing to watch for is the team strategy. If they favor the 'lead driver' again or not might have some say in who finishes ahead.

Edited by TF110, 12 March 2015 - 08:10.

[redreni]

I certainly think Rosberg has plenty of room for improvement and I'm sure he will improve. But he hasn't shown enough race pace over the last two seasons to suggest he's going to have the edge, it's as simple as that.

[OO7]

IT'S STARTING!!!

 

To the 1st, 2nd and 3rd battalion of moderators, be ready to earn your metaphorical corn!

[Newbrray]

I love the smell of Motor oil in the morning - smells like victory.

 

May the best man (hint Lewis ) win

[Roscoe]

No logic/reasoning for it at all but for somehow I think Nico might sneak it this year.

[RubalSher]

The wait is over! This thread is gonna roll over what 8-9 parts, so is this the calm before the storm

[sopa]

I am actually very interested to find out, how will their qualifying battle evolve this year.

[hamilton10000]

Lewis should get it done comfortably bar reliability issues

[Vesuvius]

Will be closer fight than last year, Nico has looked really fast during testing and has rained hard to be faster on race pace (some knew breathing technic even). Lewis has had some problems in his private life, and that could affect on his performances on track.

[Vesuvius]

I am actually very interested to find out, how will their qualifying battle evolve this year.

 

me too, it will be close. I think Nico will be ahead, but it could very well be other way around

[pusko]

It's like asking "who will be wdc in 2002? Rubens or Michael"

Edited by pusko, 12 March 2015 - 09:24.

[TheFish]

It's hard to see how Nico can beat Lewis this year after being so comprehensively beaten last year. Maybe Austria was the only race where Nico was genuinely faster than Lewis on race day, but I'm not convinced about that one. Lewis to dominate the year and it be easier than last year due to improved reliability.

[GoldenColt]

I am actually very interested to find out, how will their qualifying battle evolve this year.

 

All we know is that if Nico will be ahead, qualifying-performance will be discussed intensely in here.

[Newbrray]

I just hope the everyone plays fair and are respectful.

[Cyanide]

I just hope the everyone plays fair and are respectful.

 

[MastaKink]

I think it will be close again in Qualy where they are evenly matched and a clear win for Hamilton on race days where they are not.

[Mat13]

I think Hamilton will win, but it'll be a hell of a season if he doesn't.  

[bonjon1979a]

Whenever a team is this dominant there isn't going to be much between them. If one wins the other will be second. Last year we were lucky in that the reliability at the end of the season was about equal so the end result was a reflection of where they were.

[SR388]

It gives me goosebumps to think what might have happened. It was unfair what happened to Nico in the last race. It would have been tragic if that fate befell Lewis. Reliability is key. Also, who gets along with their team best. We know nico is allegedly a kind man, but does he connect with his crew? What about Lewis?

[sennafan24]

Well, here we are chaps. Here is my take

 

With the swift changes in regulations last year, we saw a significant change with how these two performed against each other. A slight edge for Lewis in qualifying and race performance, turned into a modest advantage for Lewis on race day, and a slight edge for Nico in qualifying. This year, the regulations have not changed much. Which is why I tend to think the relative performance between the two will remain similar to last year.

 

Testing told us very little. Lewis might have had fewer laps, but he is also the driver who is generally quicker on the uptake. Peter Windsor was saying that Lewis just has a "better feel" for the car. This reminded me of how Senna did a practice lap at Mexico 1989, and changed his tyres accordingly. The result was that he blasted Prost in the race, despite the latter being seen as the "thinking man's driver".

 

I am going to ignore the whole "will Lewis lose his head" argument, as there is little evidence that will happen. Overall, F1 can be very diverse. I am going to avoid any strong observations until the mid-stage of the season. I want a good chuck of data and observations to work with. 

 

But based on what we know. I think Lewis holds the edge. 

 

Hoping for a nice clean Championship, and a nice clean thread 

[Exb]

I can't see past Lewis to be honest - unless something shocking happens to the reliability with his car or backmarkers keep randomly taking him out whilst he tries to lap them.

I think he has the measure of Nico - although Nico did 'win' the qualifying battle last year (I hate using those terms ) I think it is more to do with Lewis either not being able to set his best lap (car problems x2, wrong decision (Silverstone) or not getting a lap - Monaco) or Lewis just making a mistake on his hot lap (which is rare - I don't remember him ever having as many issues in previous seasons but it may just have been highlighted so much as it was only ever him against Nico for pole, and I guess this also adds its own pressures that Lewis will not have been used to). Nico did a very good solid job in qualifying however so I don't want to take anything away from him, I just think, at his best, Lewis is the quicker over 1 lap.

The race was a different story however and Lewis was at a different level - I don't think there was 1 race where Nico looked generally faster.

 

I kind of hope Nico proves me wrong and can at least challenge Lewis as I can't help feeling that without the early issues for Lewis last year the championship would have seemed a whole lot duller than it actually appeared, and with it looking like a Merc lockout again this year it would be nice if Nico was challenging Lewis so we end up having more races like Bahrain 2014, which even (most) non-Merc fans can enjoy the great battling between them.

[pizzalover]

Rosberg kept tightening up at crucial points last year. Doesn't lack the speed, but the huge ego and killer instinct needed for the pinnacle of professional sports. He needs to get angry, or Hamilton will  have an easy task. Just too nice I fear.

[TomNokoe]

To be honest, I think it's going to be like last year. I think Rosberg will still hold an edge in quali, because he is just so good at it. I think Hamilton will have to work harder on race day because the competition won't be as far behind as last year.

[Kvothe]

Rosberg kept tightening up at crucial points last year. Doesn't lack the speed, but the huge ego and killer instinct needed for the pinnacle of professional sports. He needs to get angry, or Hamilton will  have an easy task. Just too nice I fear.

He got angry last year, tell me how that worked out for him? I seem to recall his season imploding around him, team support fading, and a tsunami of social media outrage that clearly affected his visible demeanor during press conferences and interviews.

 

He needs to remain calm, and keep the on track advantage his apparent qualifying pace gave him last year, Lewis was the faster driver but it shouldn't be forgotten, that he locked up twice in Monza, letting Lewis through, that his car retired in Singapore, that he messed up the first corner of Sochi and that he was caught napping at Austin, when if he had gone defensive earlier, and displayed the defending prowess Lewis did in Korea 2011, or he himself did in China 2010, he might have won the race. They were all major cornerstones, and it might have only taken victory at two of them, and a lack of mistakes to ensure him the tiltle.. The fact is there isn't a lot Rosberg needs to improve except for staying calm, something that might be a lot more easily achievable now that he's already gone through the psychological trauma of losing the WDC to Lewis, and accepting he's the better driver.

Edited by Kvothe, 12 March 2015 - 12:30.

[P123]

No logic/reasoning for it at all but for somehow I think Nico might sneak it this year.

 

To the pound with you!

[P123]

Reliability will be key.  With both trading 1st and 2nd it will be very difficult to pull ahead or close a gap without car gremlins intervening.  Based on that, I hope others will have closed the gap to the Mercs.

[sopa]

I think the matter is that "anger" needs to be canalized in the right way. That you are really determined to fight and fight till the end. Nico and Lewis may have had a contact in Belgium, but I don't think this is the kind of "anger" we are talking about.

 

I think Nico lacked experience of a title fight last year and may have (subconsciously?) counted on Lewis retiring with a car problem or having an off-weekend late in the season. But I guess he may have learnt you can't bank on waiting and playing a long game.

 

Especially if Nico still has a qualifying edge, he needs to be absolutely ruthless in defending his race leads this year. I know, this will be a game on the edge, possibly more contacts, possibly more arguing on the forum and more complaints that Rosberg is a cheater, a *****, whoever. BUT this is the only way he can fight against Hamilton. Put the car on pole and defend like hell during the race.

[OO7]

No logic/reasoning for it at all but for somehow I think Nico might sneak it this year.

Traitor!!!  Look at you, sitting there as if butter wouldn't melt in your mouth!  Remember who bought you that lovely feeding bowl and the assortment of treats that very often occupy it.

[GoldenColt]

I think the matter is that "anger" needs to be canalized in the right way. That you are really determined to fight and fight till the end. Nico and Lewis may have had a contact in Belgium, but I don't think this is the kind of "anger" we are talking about.

 

I think Nico lacked experience of a title fight last year and may have (subconsciously?) counted on Lewis retiring with a car problem or having an off-weekend late in the season. But I guess he may have learnt you can't bank on waiting and playing a long game.

 

Especially if Nico still has a qualifying edge, he needs to be absolutely ruthless in defending his race leads this year. I know, this will be a game on the edge, possibly more contacts, possibly more arguing on the forum and more complaints that Rosberg is a cheater, a *****, whoever. BUT this is the only way he can fight against Hamilton. Put the car on pole and defend like hell during the race.

 

Then Lewis will just stay within 2 or 3 seconds, save fuel, save tyres, pit 1 or 2 laps after Nico and pass him in the pitlane.

[Kvothe]

I think the matter is that "anger" needs to be canalized in the right way. That you are really determined to fight and fight till the end. Nico and Lewis may have had a contact in Belgium, but I don't think this is the kind of "anger" we are talking about.

 

I think Nico lacked experience of a title fight last year and may have (subconsciously?) counted on Lewis retiring with a car problem or having an off-weekend late in the season. But I guess he may have learnt you can't bank on waiting and playing a long game.

 

Especially if Nico still has a qualifying edge, he needs to be absolutely ruthless in defending his race leads this year. I know, this will be a game on the edge, possibly more contacts, possibly more arguing on the forum and more complaints that Rosberg is a cheater, a *****, whoever. BUT this is the only way he can fight against Hamilton. Put the car on pole and defend like hell during the race.

[OO7]

I think Nico lacked experience of a title fight last year and may have (subconsciously?) counted on Lewis retiring with a car problem or having an off-weekend late in the season. But I guess he may have learnt you can't bank on waiting and playing a long game.

That is not what he said nor does it explain his performance in Monza and COTA.

[redreni]

It gives me goosebumps to think what might have happened. It was unfair what happened to Nico in the last race. It would have been tragic if that fate befell Lewis. Reliability is key. Also, who gets along with their team best. We know nico is allegedly a kind man, but does he connect with his crew? What about Lewis?

 

I think Lewis likes to be perceived as connecting with his crew. I don't think his crew really cares that much how personable or otherwise he is as long as he goes fast and doesn't crash. But I've heard more than one story to the effect that the individual handshaking and hugging routine is just that; a routine that is only performed if the cameras are looking. I've no idea what the mechanics think about Nico, which is as it should be, and it doesn't strike me that Nico concerns himself for one moment with what we might think about that particular topic, which is also quite right.

[Newbrray]

I think Lewis likes to be perceived as connecting with his crew. I don't think his crew really cares that much how personable or otherwise he is as long as he goes fast and doesn't crash. But I've heard more than one story to the effect that the individual handshaking and hugging routine is just that; a routine that is only performed if the cameras are looking. I've no idea what the mechanics think about Nico, which is as it should be, and it doesn't strike me that Nico concerns himself for one moment with what we might think about that particular topic, which is also quite right.

 

Am pretty sure you are referring to the "Mark priestly " article about the situation in 2007. where he mentioned something relating to this. This was an isolated incidence as to how each side of the garage was behaving due to the animosity at the time and not necessarily a true reflection of them as a person.

 

http://www.grandprix...s/display/06511

 

here is an extract from the article 

 

 

As the drivers began to publicly fall out, and particularly after the well documented Hungary qualifying incident, there was no secret that the two didn't like each other and the last thing they would be prepared to do would be to work together.

The unavoidable tension didn't take long to spread throughout the team. Fernando tried desperately to rally his own side of the garage with 'perks' for people associated with his car and Lewis played his best media games, notably a display of shaking hands with the entire team whenever the TV cameras came in pre-race. 

The car crews, as ever got behind their men, but interestingly developed a quite intense distain for the driver on the other side of the invisible divide. A rivalry like I hadn't really seen before emerged between mechanics and engineers on either side and even they began to distance themselves from each other more and more.

 

 

Edited by Newbrray, 12 March 2015 - 14:03.

[sennafan24]

BUT this is the only way he can fight against Hamilton. Put the car on pole and defend like hell during the race.

Agreed

 

However, the issue that goes against this strategy, is that Lewis has too many advantages. As G.C said, Lewis can get past during pitstops. There is also the issue with starts. Lewis improved his starts last year (this had previously been a weakness of his). Lewis has also displayed he is better in wheel to wheel combat. Lewis has a lot to go on.

 

I don't buy the notion that goes about that Nico needs to "toughen up". At the very least, I don't think a more aggressive approach would change much. I just think Nico struggles when racing wheel to wheel. Which is why I put SPA down to incompetence, rather than cheating or deviancy.

 

There is a justification that goes around, that Nico is easily influenced by what others think, and that is what beat him last year. I think it is a bit of a smokescreen to excuse that Lewis is the more gifted driver, and there is only a so much Nico can do about it. 

[femi]

Lewis better tyre management was another advantage over Nico last season. The new tyres promised to be more durable may help Nico a bit or Lewis advantage in that area may even grow bigger ! Lewis long run during testing was mega but notably, Nico wasn't too happy in that department.

Nico's pole advantage last year was skewed, I am not expecting Nico to top Lewis this year, I don't think he has anything new to bring up against Lewis; he has been trying since when they were kids and always falling short ... It is a recurring story.

I am pretty confident that whatever he can possibly come up with will have an answer from Lewis but I will still like to see him have a go anyway - he is paid to do just that!

If however he losses again to Lewis this year by quite a margin, Nico will have no more cover stories, reasons or excuses and if there is any pride left in him, seek another drive elsewhere and if not, humbly accept a very visible No2 role

Edited by femi, 12 March 2015 - 13:33.

[Kvothe]

Agreed

 

However, the issue that goes against this strategy, is that Lewis has too many advantages. As G.C said, Lewis can get past during pitstops. There is also the issue with starts. Lewis improved his starts last year (this had previously been a weakness of his). Lewis has also displayed he is better in wheel to wheel combat. Lewis has a lot to go on.

 

I don't buy the notion that goes about that Nico needs to "toughen up". At the very least, I don't think a more aggressive approach would change much. I just think Nico struggles when racing wheel to wheel. Which is why I put SPA down to incompetence, rather than cheating or deviancy.

 

There is a justification that goes around, that Nico is easily influenced by what others think, and that is what beat him last year. I think it is a bit of a smokescreen to excuse that Lewis is the more gifted driver, and there is only a so much Nico can do about it. 

How many times did Lewis get past Nico due to strategy last year?
Canada....Where Nico for once had the slow pitstop. Other times he was either stuck behind (Austria) had to overtake on track, or spun trying to (Brazil) Lewis is faster but that doesn't automatically mean  he'll be able to jump past after the first round or even second round of stops, as last season showed. 

As we saw last year pit stop strategy is heavily weighted towards the car in front due to tyre wear, and pit stop preference except at certain tracks (Monaco, Canada, Sochi, Nurburgring) where the tyre preserving, characteristic of the tracks make the overcut a possibility. 

 

I think Nico struggled with wheel to wheel racing, but there is a good argument that was only when it came to overtaking, when he lacked the killer instinct (Bahrain, Vergne- Hungary) or made sloppy/intentional mistakes. His biggest issue was remaining composed while in the lead, had he done so Lewis would never have racked up 5 wins in a row. I think the lack of mental composure was down to being in his first title fight with Lewis, letting his frustrations with coming second best to Lewis affect his judgement, and his personal rivalry and feelings towards Lewis. I think he was talked up a lot last season, and a lot was made of how equal he and Lewis appeared to be in 2013, and he subconsciously elevated himself in his own mind to Lewis' level, hence why he took losing so bad. I think this season he has accepted however marginally that he isn't as naturally gifted as Lewis, that for the moment he has a natural qualifying advantage that affords him opportunities, and that he needs to capitalise on those opportunities. There will be races when Lewis will start behind and blow past him in to the distance I have no doubt, however there will be races where Lewis despite a speed advantage won't be able to get past, it will be his composure in those moments which will make the difference, that and as P123 said reliability. 

Edited by Kvothe, 12 March 2015 - 13:35.

[sennafan24]

How many times did Lewis get past Nico due to strategy last year?

Depends on what you mean by strategy.

 

Lewis did get passed Nico quite often by using his head. Take Japan, where he waited behind Nico for laps, until he got the perfect opportunity to pass. Same with Austin. Lewis has this ability to manage races, he knows the opportune time to push, and when to back off. 

 

 

 His biggest issue was remaining composed while in the lead, had he done so Lewis would never have racked up 5 wins in a row. 

Times when Nico lost the lead.

 

Italy - Yes he lost his composure. But he was only ahead due to Lewis having mechanical issues off the line. Lewis was quicker throughout the race.

 

Japan - Lewis was quicker throughout the race, and as said above, picked his opportune time to overtake.

 

Austin - Same as above. When they got onto the harder compound, Lewis pushed and passed. Nico did not really break mentally.

 

It was more that Lewis was simply quicker, rather than Nico losing his composure.

Edited by sennafan24, 12 March 2015 - 13:44.

[tigerbalm]

Can't predict who will come out on top between these two. I really want it to be Lewis, but Nico will always try something, whether it's in the spirit of racing or not....

 

I just hope Lewis is ready for whatever Nico will throw at him, and, beats him comprehensively

[Jimisgod]

Has anyone ever been champion and then lost the championship to the same teammate, other than Lauda and Prost in 1985?

[scheivlak]

Has anyone ever been champion and then lost the championship to the same teammate, other than Lauda and Prost in 1985?

1967: Jack Brabham lost to Denny Hulme.