47 replies to this topic

[FullThrottleF1]

What do we all think?   

Edited by FullThrottleF1, 22 April 2016 - 14:52.

[Marklar]

No. Next question.

[Anja]

I would be really surprised if we did.

[Marklar]

I reckon that question 2 & 3 could be multiple choice. Just in case someone is crazy enough to believe that two or more mfr might join within the next three years.

[FullThrottleF1]

I reckon that question 2 & 3 could be multiple choice. Just in case someone is crazy enough to believe that two or more mfr might join within the next three years.

Changed

[MikeV1987]

Voted yes (as an engine supplier) I have a suspicion of something big going on behind the scenes at Red Bull.

Edited by MikeV1987, 22 April 2016 - 14:56.

[noikeee]

I think we're more likely to see some rebadged "new manufacturers", like it was rumoured for Aston Martin to take over Force India and run "Aston Martin" Mercedes engines; and now it's being rumoured for Alfa Romeo.

 

But it's not impossible. 1 or 2 years ago I certainly didn't see Renault coming in to take over a whole team. Seems like we're slowly going back to the manufacturers era, but a mix of uncertainty over the rules and the complexity of the PUs with the current manufacturers having a large headstart, is a major hindrance.

 

It's also hard to imagine which manufacturer could really get into F1. Surely Toyota and BMW aren't in a rush to come back, VW brands are in deep **** after the VW emissions scandal, not sure if Ford brands have any interest, maybe Kia/Hyundai?

[ConsiderAndGo]

No chance. 

 

Move along now.

[RainyAfterlifeDaylight]

If 2017 regulation changes were stable, efficient and suitable enough for long term future, then I think we could have a new team in 3 years.

[johnmhinds]

3 years? Well 2017 is a no, and I don't see anyone entering in 2018-2019 at what should be the tail end of the current engine regulations.

[Vibe]

I wasn't into much other than track racing before 2014, can someone explain to me how did the cost cutting policy lead into rewriting the rules so that manufacturers had to produce these ridiculously expensive power units and spend shitloads of money to develop them further?

[superden]

Good grief no, F1 is a total state.

[Pete_f1]

No

[noikeee]

I wasn't into much other than track racing before 2014, can someone explain to me how did the cost cutting policy lead into rewriting the rules so that manufacturers had to produce these ridiculously expensive power units and spend shitloads of money to develop them further?

The reasoning was that the previous engines (the V8s) were outdated and to "attract new manufacturers" (hopefully VW) we needed new technology they could market as cutting edge. Mercedes and Renault both specifically lobbied hard for these regulations, Ferrari didn't like it as much, I believe they wanted a different formula.

 

Yes, the cost was a large elephant in the room - but I'm not sure it would've been right for F1 to still remain stuck with V8s by 2016.

 

However it didn't really work in attracting new manufacturers. We only got Honda and for now Honda have been unsuccessful enough to scare off everyone else.

[Kristian]

I don't think so. The only plausible one would be VW, but they have so much on their plate at the moment I doubt F1 is a high priority. 

 

Maybe we might see Aston or Alfa, but I don't count those as full blown manufacturers. 

 

There's just too much uncertainty in F1 for one of the big companies to want to jump in. 

Edited by Kristian, 22 April 2016 - 16:00.

[FullThrottleF1]

We must remember though that Marchionne has been very forward about encouraging other manufacturers.

[Izzyeviel]

Looking at the recent MotoGP Ducati, I wouldn't be surprised to see them in F1 soon. Wingtastic.

[Donkey]

Doubt it, if anything we should be more worried about Sauber/Force India/Manor going bust and leaving F1.

[New Britain]

I'm not trying to be pedantic, but Formula One is not "The Sport" as alluded in the thread title.

 

Bernie and CVC would like it to be "the sport", and indeed they, in league with Mosley when he was still running the FIA, have tried their best to eclipse the numerous other, wonderful forms of motor sport. This was what caused the European Commission to sanction the FIA about 15 years ago.

 

Ironic, therefore, that so many of the other forms of motor sport are thriving, whilst Formula One continues to lose itself deeper and deeper into its own backside. It's not easy to make oneself irrelevant, especially when one is spending billions of dollars a year doing so, but the sub-sport of Formula One is managing to achieve that.

[messy]

Nope. Who? VW have the WEC, WRC.....they've got it covered without even needing to think about F1.

Ford, Toyota, BMW ain't about to mount a comeback. Not after last time. Other manufacturers who have been active and successful in Motorsport like Citroen, Peugeot, nah. Really don't see any candidates. The Red Bull - LADA RB17 maybe. Kvyat huh.

[MikeV1987]

Ford to return as a engine supplier for Haas, calling it now 

[DampMongoose]

Cillit Bang as an engine branding name change.

[Treads]

Haas doing so well is a huge boost to the likelihood of someone new coming in.

[GrumpyYoungMan]

No, not a new manufacture as in like Ferrari or Mercedes, but maybe some kind of labelling deal or the Haas way basically a customer car!

[sopa]

I think we can discuss the potential entrance of any new manufacturer (I mean as a REAL manufacturer, who builds their own engines and stuff, not re-brands...) in the context of next engine/power unit regulations. Whenever they might appear. Beyond 2020? Clearly V6T Hybrid is not only too expensive, but also very questionable in terms of delivering results. Other manufacturers are looking at the prices, the struggles of Honda and Renault (both clearly big companies) and think - "nah, not worth it".

 

Time for the FIA and Strategy Group to draw up new plans with a blank sheet of paper...

[Razoola]

Given the current structure and the costs I don't see another manufacturer team joining until at least 2020.

Edited by Razoola, 23 April 2016 - 07:29.

[Nemo1965]

I really don't know, but I think that bringing a new manufacturer won't solve the problem F1 is having: rising costs and shrinking audience. I just don't believe that if, say, VW, comes in, the cost will be influenced positively or that new viewers will flock to F1.

 

What would help? If, somehow, somewhere, F1 would be able to combine both new engine-technology (like the hybrid turbo's), with customer-market engines. What F1 needs is an influx of affordable and competitive engines.

[senna da silva]

why would a manufacturer invest a great sum into developing old technology?

 

FI needs to open the regs to electric power for 2017!

[superden]

why would a manufacturer invest a great sum into developing old technology?

FI needs to open the regs to electric power for 2017!

Or hydrogen, a genuinely useful technology for the future, rather than the false idol of electric power.

[statman]

Given these ridiculous engines, the politics and costs involved: no

[Nemo1965]

Or hydrogen, a genuinely useful technology for the future, rather than the false idol of electric power.

 

I agree that the engine-rules should be broken open and allow both old and new technology - as long as, say, 100 litres of fuel or something like that, is used and no more. Or something like that. I don't care.

 

I agree that electric power is a false idol, but at least it is a technology that a broad slice of the public believes in, hence the willingness of city's like Paris to close off their streets for an event and to buy electric cars like the Tesla (who's chairman is almost deified at the moment). Hydrogen, electric cars, hybrids, any kind of engine where the factory's can blurt out large numbers of, or will have little trouble sprouting 100 or 150 extra engines for motor-racing. Adapted Chevy-blocks made American racing possible for years, like the Ford-Cosworth did the same for F1. 

 

So if the FIA would encourage that, great, then new suppliers and new manufacturers would be welcome and possible.

[Joseki]

Honda did so well with their small budget and low quality facilities, so why not. 

[LongTooth]

Stability is what manufacturers want and F1 is in a state of confusion, now. The panic decision to change rules just 3 years after introducing a new set will set alarm bells ringing in any potential new entrants. It's costly enough chasing a stationary performance target, let alone one that changes so easily. I don't see any new manufacturer coming in until Bernie has gone and the sport is in the hands of more stable future owner.

[F1matt]

Declining TV audiences, a move to behind paywall and an ageing fan base should be enough to put most manufacturers off, formula E and WEC are more relevant technology for a manufacturer looking to enter the upper echelons of Motorsport, and is the sport relevant in terms of sales and prestige? Do people think more of Merecedes for their involvement in F1 as opposed to BMW who do not? Highly unlikely.

[FullThrottleF1]

Declining TV audiences, a move to behind paywall and an ageing fan base should be enough to put most manufacturers off, formula E and WEC are more relevant technology for a manufacturer looking to enter the upper echelons of Motorsport, and is the sport relevant in terms of sales and prestige? Do people think more of Merecedes for their involvement in F1 as opposed to BMW who do not? Highly unlikely.

I do.

[GrumpyYoungMan]

I think we can discuss the potential entrance of any new manufacturer (I mean as a REAL manufacturer, who builds their own engines and stuff, not re-brands...) in the context of next engine/power unit regulations. Whenever they might appear. Beyond 2020? Clearly V6T Hybrid is not only too expensive, but also very questionable in terms of delivering results. Other manufacturers are looking at the prices, the struggles of Honda and Renault (both clearly big companies) and think - "nah, not worth it".

Time for the FIA and Strategy Group to draw up new plans with a blank sheet of paper...

They have spent to much money on the V6Ts to scrap them in 2020. The cost of them will also quickly decrease in the coming years...

[Clatter]

They have spent to much money on the V6Ts to scrap them in 2020. The cost of them will also quickly decrease in the coming years...

IF, I doubt it will, but even if it does it will be too late. The damage has, and still is, being done.

[senna da silva]

Or hydrogen, a genuinely useful technology for the future, rather than the false idol of electric power.

 

It takes electricity to produce hydrogen.

[RA2]

Wonder why no one has mentioned GM

[superden]

It takes electricity to produce hydrogen.

Yes, though you have to produce that electricity too. In addition, hydrogen would allow me to continue to use a car as I do now. By that I mean usefully, utilising similar infrastructure to that which already exists and that would allow me to simply refuel and be on my way for another 400 miles. No stopping, no plugs and no need to fundamentally change the entire concept of private transportation around the massive limitations of a dated technology. Electricity has its place, and its not powering privately owned cars. Electricity is just an example of the drip feed of an outdated technology, on the road to something genuinely useful, like hydrogen. However, manufacturers are more than willing to pay lip service to the 'green' agenda when it means they can sell another showroom full of cars. To be honest, the whole electric/hydrogen car saga is rather like Betamax/VHS. The VHS of electricity might be winning, but everyone knew the Betamax hydrogen system was better.

Give it x number of years and they will be telling us how awful batteries are for the planet, and how being green means selling up and buying a new 'insert buzzword technology here' anyway.

Edited by superden, 23 April 2016 - 18:52.

[Mat13]

It takes electricity to produce hydrogen.

It takes coal to produce electricity...

[Mat13]

I can't see another manufacturer in six years, never mind three. VW has repeatedly said F1 is too unstable to consider, and I can't imagine any other manufacturers thinking differently.

[TyreSmokeDownshift]

Probably not. Especially since certain manufacturers are, at the moment, being more drawn to Formula E (Jaguar coming next season and interest from BMW and Nissan). 

[pdac]

It takes coal to produce electricity...

 

A bit of Uranium can do the job well too.

[LORDBYRON]

I think we can discuss the potential entrance of any new manufacturer (I mean as a REAL manufacturer, who builds their own engines and stuff, not re-brands...) in the context of next engine/power unit regulations. Whenever they might appear. Beyond 2020? Clearly V6T Hybrid is not only too expensive, but also very questionable in terms of delivering results. Other manufacturers are looking at the prices, the struggles of Honda and Renault (both clearly big companies) and think - "nah, not worth it".

 

Time for the FIA and Strategy Group to draw up new plans with a blank sheet of paper...

There is only cosworth anything else is just hearsay 

[Vettelari]

My hope is that Ford sees a large return on their Le Mans investment and decide to give F1 a go again. I could see that as a plausible scenario, but still not very likely. With HAAS switching to Ford in NASCAR, a tie up and lines of communication already exist between the 2. Plus, Lord knows that Ford has the money to blow and than some.

That is our best bet in seeing a new manufacturer the next 3 years. In the form of a HAAS/Ford merger, IMO.

I think BMW and VW will come around sometime in the next 10-15 years, but I don't expect that to happen during the current engine Formula.

Edited by Vettelari, 23 April 2016 - 19:39.

[Quickshifter]

Surprisingly formula 1 is far more relevant and image building exercise than it was a few years ago.  No matter what anyone says F1 is still the pinnacle of motorsport.  The hybrid engines especially the exhaust harvesting ones that we currently have and the insane levels of efficiency the manufacturers are achieving definitely will have manufacturers at least taking a look in to the sport. The technology in f1 is nothing new but the execution and finesse is something at another level altogether. Mercedes, Ferrari, Honda and Renault are not small fish. They wouldn't be in here if F1 was not giving them the returns they were looking for. On the flip side however it takes a lot of commitment, resources, time and know how to succeed. Yes there are other categories which are far more cheaper in terms of resources but they are well below in profile as well especially outside Europe.

 

The automotive market is expanding at a huge rate outside of Europe and F1 is head and shoulders above any other form of 4 wheeled  competition especially outside Europe which is where the automotive market is growing rapidly especially in Asia. F1 is still the most widely watched motorsport category all over the world. F1 has expanded to 21 races all over the globe. The biggest problem is the investment needed in F1 to be successful is quite high but that does not mean manufacturers won't be able to recoup the costs over a period of time. People talk about Formula E and what not but without disrespect to the category how many people even take it seriously? Yes the energy saving philosophy of the category is a great thing but the car's look like they have come from an antique era despite the modern tech.

Edited by Quickshifter, 23 April 2016 - 21:28.

[senna da silva]

Yes, though you have to produce that electricity too. In addition, hydrogen would allow me to continue to use a car as I do now. By that I mean usefully, utilising similar infrastructure to that which already exists and that would allow me to simply refuel and be on my way for another 400 miles. No stopping, no plugs and no need to fundamentally change the entire concept of private transportation around the massive limitations of a dated technology. Electricity has its place, and its not powering privately owned cars. Electricity is just an example of the drip feed of an outdated technology, on the road to something genuinely useful, like hydrogen. However, manufacturers are more than willing to pay lip service to the 'green' agenda when it means they can sell another showroom full of cars. To be honest, the whole electric/hydrogen car saga is rather like Betamax/VHS. The VHS of electricity might be winning, but everyone knew the Betamax hydrogen system was better.

Give it x number of years and they will be telling us how awful batteries are for the planet, and how being green means selling up and buying a new 'insert buzzword technology here' anyway.

 

Compounding inefficiencies doesn't make sense.

Edited by senna da silva, 23 April 2016 - 22:21.