Jump to content


Photo
- - - - -

Mercedes W08 and Ferrari SF70H: comparing the title contenders [edited]


  • Please log in to reply
251 replies to this topic

#1 RPM40

RPM40
  • Member

  • 15,176 posts
  • Joined: October 15

Posted 18 April 2017 - 04:50

On the surface, a season with 3 races and the supposed 'underdog' team having won 2 of them you would assume the season is very competitive on the face of it.

 

But I'm not 100% sure the truth in that. We've kind of seen in past that when Mercedes have lost track position, they haven't always won. Races like say, Hungary 2015. And I'm not really sure if they're genuinely getting beaten on pace, or if circumstances have manipulated the results.

 

For instance, it seems to be that had Hamilton gone 0.010 faster in qualifying and got pole, converted that into the race lead, it would have been a very boring race for us as his pace was faster than the trailing cars. The problem for him was he lost track position to Vettel and then further got unlucky with the safety car removing the capacity for the undercut.

 

So overall, I'm not really sure the field right now is as competitive as it looks. I actually think come a 'normal' race, Merc could just cruise off into the distance.



Advertisement

#2 RacingGreen

RacingGreen
  • Member

  • 3,527 posts
  • Joined: March 17

Posted 18 April 2017 - 05:29

ask me again in November.



#3 Wuzak

Wuzak
  • Member

  • 9,092 posts
  • Joined: September 00

Posted 18 April 2017 - 05:30

On the surface, a season with 3 races and the supposed 'underdog' team having won 2 of them you would assume the season is very competitive on the face of it.

 

But I'm not 100% sure the truth in that. We've kind of seen in past that when Mercedes have lost track position, they haven't always won. Races like say, Hungary 2015. And I'm not really sure if they're genuinely getting beaten on pace, or if circumstances have manipulated the results.

 

For instance, it seems to be that had Hamilton gone 0.010 faster in qualifying and got pole, converted that into the race lead, it would have been a very boring race for us as his pace was faster than the trailing cars. The problem for him was he lost track position to Vettel and then further got unlucky with the safety car removing the capacity for the undercut.

 

So overall, I'm not really sure the field right now is as competitive as it looks. I actually think come a 'normal' race, Merc could just cruise off into the distance.

 

I think Ferrari are at least competitive enough that mistakes Mercedes make actually matter, such that it may be the difference between them winning and losing.

 

Regarding the races so far this year, Hamilton pitted earlier than he needed to to prevent the undercut in Australia. But by doing so he trapped himself behind Verstappen. The reason he did this was because he felt the tyres going off and was unable to run away from Vettel. The gap was never more than 2s before he stopped, and had reduced dramatically by the time he went into the pits. 

 

In the Chinese GP Hamilton was cruising. This is largely because the safety car negated Vettel's early stop for slicks. That and the fact the the Ferraris were bottled up behind the Red Bulls (OK Daniel) for several laps. So no clear picture could be seen there.

 

In Bahrain it was Vettel who pitted early to get the undercut. And it worked, despite the safety car. And because of some errors from Mercedes. Because of the situation of the race I think Vettel wasn't pushing very hard in the second half of the race, certainly not as hard as Hamilton.

 

You are right that in Bahrain if Hamilton qualified on pole he may have run away with the race. But that would also have depended on whether Bottas maintained 2nd place ahead of Vettel.



#4 ferkan

ferkan
  • Member

  • 2,298 posts
  • Joined: February 16

Posted 18 April 2017 - 05:30

Hamilton didnt have the pace to run away from Vettel. If you are basing that on last stint where Vettel had almost 20s margin in 13-14 laps then you are mistaken. He literally got told ti "watch his tires" until the end of the race, where Hamilton was "STRAT 6" entire time.

#5 ArrowsLivery

ArrowsLivery
  • Member

  • 3,717 posts
  • Joined: March 17

Posted 18 April 2017 - 05:34

There is probably a tenth or two in it at most depending on the track.

#6 LuckyStrike1

LuckyStrike1
  • Member

  • 8,681 posts
  • Joined: March 01

Posted 18 April 2017 - 05:34

Ferrari has enough race pace to put Mercedes under pressure and start making things happen for them. 

It now comes down to make the most of opportunities, get the strategies 100 %, maintain and develop the cars, bog down and focus. 



#7 Marklar

Marklar
  • Member

  • 44,842 posts
  • Joined: May 15

Posted 18 April 2017 - 06:02

From what I understand Mercedes has stil an advantage if they are absolutely nailing everything. As they dont Ferrari is at least in the races on par, if not better. And over one lap just in Bahrain Mercedes had a real advantage, which might have costed for the race.

Hamilton didnt have the pace to run away from Vettel. If you are basing that on last stint where Vettel had almost 20s margin in 13-14 laps then you are mistaken. He literally got told ti "watch his tires" until the end of the race, where Hamilton was "STRAT 6" entire time.

This is impossible as Merc isnt able to use Strat6 so much. He used this engine mode in the middle of the race though based on the team radio. At the end I assume that he simply stressed out his fresher tyres, while Vettel was saving them. It's possible that he used it very shortly at the end at best.

Edited by Marklar, 18 April 2017 - 06:05.


#8 Szoelloe

Szoelloe
  • Member

  • 7,054 posts
  • Joined: December 06

Posted 18 April 2017 - 06:05

If you mean by the word "field" the 2 cars of Merc and Ferrari, than the answer to your question is pretty fxxxxxg competitive. Why would you even ask that I have no clue. The two designs are pretty close in terms of pace. Mercedes, for whatever reason, has some extra umpff in qualy for the last run, but it seems to be a worthless "umpff" since Ferrari so far stole the eggs from the basket from 2nd-3rd on the grid, at the least matching Mercedes in race pace, and there is a gap behind them guaranteeing them the second best position. It seems to me that ferrari has etra room to play with in terms of setup, or a bigger setup window if you wish. I do hope it stays that way, because if it does, these two will be trading blows for another 17 races.



#9 Nonesuch

Nonesuch
  • Member

  • 15,870 posts
  • Joined: October 08

Posted 18 April 2017 - 07:59

It seems to me that Mercedes still has an advantage in both qualifying and race, but their room for mistakes has become smaller.

 

They did plenty of silly things in the last three years that disappeared into nothingness because their car was so much better than anything else out there.

 

Now though, those mistakes can get them in trouble - and already have.

 

At this point Mercedes' trump card might be qualifying, and although I hope they don't - they should probably watch the 1998 European Grand Prix and study Ferrari's tactics.

 

Under normal circumstances Bottas can't win the championship this year, but he can be the key to winning it for Mercedes.


Edited by Nonesuch, 18 April 2017 - 07:59.


#10 Kelateboy

Kelateboy
  • Member

  • 7,032 posts
  • Joined: October 07

Posted 18 April 2017 - 08:06

Mercedes still have the advantage in qualifying, and if they do not make any mistakes during race day, should be able to carry through their advantage for a race win.

 

Occasionally, Mercedes would fumble the ball and Ferrari especially Vettel would be there to pick up the pieces.

 

IMO the results in the 1st 3 races flattered Ferrari. But Mercedes do seem to have issues with the 3 softest compounds. Hopefully Pirelli would bring ultrasofts into play more often this season.



#11 EthanM

EthanM
  • Member

  • 4,819 posts
  • Joined: April 09

Posted 18 April 2017 - 08:10

IMO Merces have a pretty small advantage. Bahrain, IMO again, they put Bottas on more of a quali setup (his car was visibly more neutral than Hamilton/Vettel/Kimi who all had understeer in qualy) and that meant he had no race pace (oversteer -> dead tyres)

 

That to me suggests they don't have a huge buffer to fall back on and Bottas, at least on quali trim isn't guaranteed to beat Vettel. In race pace the gap is tiny, if it exists at all. Problem is, harder tyres, and Vettel is happy as a clam running in people's wake and grinding them down. Which backs Mercedes into a corner they are not comfortable in.

 

IMO the deciding factor in all this will be the #2 drivers (sorry Fins). If Ferrari can bring Kimi in to back Vettel up, then it will be a fun season. Conversely, if Mercedes manage to give Bottas enough speed to box Vettel in they probably have enough speed to give Hamilton a buffer that Ferrari probably can't close.



#12 josepatches

josepatches
  • Member

  • 1,109 posts
  • Joined: April 11

Posted 18 April 2017 - 08:39

I think everybody agree Mercedes is a bit ahead but Ferrari had been nearly perfect ( vettel and the pit wall).
Its gonna be a tough battle only if Lewis has a couple of DNF more than Vettel.

To me its like last year with Seb being Rosberg. You can win races but if everything goes 'normal' Lewis should be the winner at the end. I mean Mercedes is ahead by a small margin like the one between Lewis and Rosberg

#13 sopa

sopa
  • Member

  • 12,230 posts
  • Joined: April 07

Posted 18 April 2017 - 08:44

I think everybody agree Mercedes is a bit ahead but Ferrari had been nearly perfect ( vettel and the pit wall).
Its gonna be a tough battle only if Lewis has a couple of DNF more than Vettel.

To me its like last year with Seb being Rosberg. You can win races but if everything goes 'normal' Lewis should be the winner at the end. I mean Mercedes is ahead by a small margin like the one between Lewis and Rosberg

 

In qualifying pace Mercedes is ahead, but in race pace I think Ferrari is genuinely in contention with Mercedes.

 

In Australia Vettel was right up with Hamilton and after pitstop drove away from him. Ominous.

 

In China Vettel got stuck in traffic. Obviously it was hard to compare, but anyway they must have been at least in similar ballpark.

 

In Bahrain Ferrari admitted they setup the car "more for the race than qualifying". Yeah, Q was lost by 0.5s, but from the start Vettel was all over Bottas and it was ominous. He didn't become under threat by anybody till late in the race, when Hamilton was on fresher tyres.

 

The main problem I see for Ferrari is that they would lose races due to qualifying. I think Vettel won't get many pole positions this year.



#14 josepatches

josepatches
  • Member

  • 1,109 posts
  • Joined: April 11

Posted 18 April 2017 - 08:48

Problem is, harder tyres, and Vettel is happy as a clam running in people's wake and grinding them down. Which backs Mercedes into a corner they are not comfortable in.

IMO the deciding factor in all this will be the #2 drivers (sorry Fins). If Ferrari can bring Kimi in to back Vettel up, then it will be a fun season. Conversely, if Mercedes manage to give Bottas enough speed to box Vettel in they probably have enough speed to give Hamilton a buffer that Ferrari probably can't close.


And this is funny because in the past we could hear how Vettel was good only if he starts on pole.
In Ferrari we can see how he is a very complete driver and he is great at overtaking too. I guess there was no point to show it when your Red Bull was faster than your rivals

#15 Kulturen

Kulturen
  • Member

  • 1,142 posts
  • Joined: October 14

Posted 18 April 2017 - 09:59

And this is funny because in the past we could hear how Vettel was good only if he starts on pole.
In Ferrari we can see how he is a very complete driver and he is great at overtaking too. I guess there was no point to show it when your Red Bull was faster than your rivals

 

Only by those too busy staring at the poster of their favourite driver on the wall to actually pay attention to the races of course. 



#16 Ferrari2183

Ferrari2183
  • Member

  • 11,907 posts
  • Joined: May 09

Posted 18 April 2017 - 10:30

Only by those too busy staring at the poster of their favourite driver on the wall to actually pay attention to the races of course.

In all fairness, Vettel's speed was never in question but early on, like in 2010, he was a bit clumsy when racing with other cars.

He was still very young then though and he has definitely improved his race craft. He is now very decisive when overtaking and is a lot calmer when racing in close proximity.

#17 LuckyStrike1

LuckyStrike1
  • Member

  • 8,681 posts
  • Joined: March 01

Posted 18 April 2017 - 10:37

And this is funny because in the past we could hear how Vettel was good only if he starts on pole.
In Ferrari we can see how he is a very complete driver and he is great at overtaking too. I guess there was no point to show it when your Red Bull was faster than your rivals

 

From people being blind when watching races. 

Everyone could see how complete he is a driver - no one is faultless, all have faults - early in the Red Bull years. 

 

And as racing is constructed - if you are the fastest in the fastest car you usually takes pole. That means you start first with the fastest driver/car package. So what is there to overtake then .... 

Vettel is a great driver, in the category of Hamilton and Alonso. Likely we could put Ricciardo and Verstappen there soon as well, and Kimi used to be there. Vettel is an all time great in the history of Formula One. So hopefully we get to enjoy a fantastic battle this year between two greats in two different but competitive cars. 


Edited by LuckyStrike1, 18 April 2017 - 10:37.


#18 SCUDmissile

SCUDmissile
  • Member

  • 9,579 posts
  • Joined: May 11

Posted 18 April 2017 - 10:50

Vettel's pace when he has to pound in quick times tells me a lot.

 

His undercut laps after he pitted in Bahrain were scorching. Not far off what Mercedes could do.

 

So yeah, there may be a gap, ut it is close enough for either car to win, at least in the race.

 

Qualifying though, Mercedes have the edge.



#19 Mandzipop

Mandzipop
  • RC Forum Host

  • 5,146 posts
  • Joined: May 09

Posted 18 April 2017 - 10:53

Mercedes have quali pace advantage and I think both are on par with race pace. However Ferrari do have a race advantage and that is being able to run in the wake of another car without destroying it's tyres and better tyre usage. Seb is just pushing the driver in front into destroying their tyres and then he is in a position to dictate strategy. The window of opportunity for strategy for Seb is much larger than Mercedes due to tyre usage. And if Sky is to be believed, he is still having a significant input into making his own strategy calls.

 

Qualifying = Mercedes

Race Pace = Mercedes/Ferrari

Race Package = Ferrari (in Seb's hands)



Advertisement

#20 anyeis

anyeis
  • Member

  • 2,192 posts
  • Joined: June 15

Posted 18 April 2017 - 10:55

Hamilton seems to think Merc has a problem with high fuel. Softer tires too

#21 OO7

OO7
  • Member

  • 23,612 posts
  • Joined: November 04

Posted 18 April 2017 - 10:57

Mercedes have quali pace advantage and I think both are on par with race pace. However Ferrari do have a race advantage and that is being able to run in the wake of another car without destroying it's tyres and better tyre usage. Seb is just pushing the driver in front into destroying their tyres and then he is in a position to dictate strategy. The window of opportunity for strategy for Seb is much larger than Mercedes due to tyre usage. And if Sky is to be believed, he is still having a significant input into making his own strategy calls.

 

Qualifying = Mercedes

Race Pace = Mercedes/Ferrari

Race Package = Ferrari (in Seb's hands)

So you actually mean:

 

Qualifying = Mercedes
Race Pace = Mercedes/Ferrari
Race Package = Ferrari (in Seb's hands)

Edited by OO7, 18 April 2017 - 11:04.


#22 robefc

robefc
  • Member

  • 13,534 posts
  • Joined: July 08

Posted 18 April 2017 - 11:00

Mercedes have quali pace advantage and I think both are on par with race pace. However Ferrari do have a race advantage and that is being able to run in the wake of another car without destroying it's tyres and better tyre usage. Seb is just pushing the driver in front into destroying their tyres and then he is in a position to dictate strategy. The window of opportunity for strategy for Seb is much larger than Mercedes due to tyre usage. And if Sky is to be believed, he is still having a significant input into making his own strategy calls.
 
Qualifying = Mercedes
Race Pace = Mercedes/Ferrari
Race Package = Ferrari (in Seb's hands)


I'm not sure it's that simple. In Oz Lewis wasn't in dirty air but struggled because the ultras were over heating. Bahrain is difficult due to the tyre pressure issue for Bottas but Lewis's softs seemed fine behind Bottas.

It appears to be more a combination of softer tyres and high fuel that isn't great for Merc at the moment, as per Lewis's comments today. What is encouraging is Seb couldn't pass Bottas despite his issues so maybe the 'merc is rubbish in dirty air' thing isn't so clear either.

#23 TheManAlive

TheManAlive
  • Member

  • 2,800 posts
  • Joined: October 07

Posted 18 April 2017 - 11:11

The season is close. If a few small things had been slightly different we could have easily seen 3 Lewis wins and lots if meaning here about another dull year if merc domination. Just as equally but for a few small differences we could have had 3 Seb wins. Races are being won and lost through strategy.

One thing that is already clear is that it will be between Lewis and Seb and I very much doubt kimi and bottas will be contenders for the championship. They will inevitably take points from the other two but they won't be the lead challengers. There may well be a massive change in performance and I could be wrong, but we so rarely see that so I think we have the basic story of the championship in place. I can imagine red bull will come into play later in the season. Would be awesome to see them become the fastest for the last quarter if the championship, too late to be contenders, but forcing the battle for wdc into the pack and away from the front,

#24 fed up

fed up
  • Member

  • 3,692 posts
  • Joined: May 08

Posted 18 April 2017 - 11:16

The the LH/Merc package is the fastest out there. SEB is close enough, but it'll take Merc some mental adjustment to get back on top of things. There is no longer room for complacency and Bottas needs to up his game so as to act as buffer between LH/SV.

 

LH/Merc will lose the WDC rather than SV/Ferrari winning it.



#25 Mandzipop

Mandzipop
  • RC Forum Host

  • 5,146 posts
  • Joined: May 09

Posted 18 April 2017 - 11:18

 

So you mean actually mean:

 

Qualifying = Mercedes
Race Pace = Mercedes/Ferrari
Race Package = Ferrari (in Seb's hands)

 

 

No, I think race pace it is equal. However, due to the wider strategy options Ferrari have the upper hand on Sunday. If they both put on a set of softs and ran for 20 laps, I'd expect Mercedes to start off quicker and Ferrari to be quicker at the end. That puts Ferrari in a position to be able to undercut Mercedes and overcut them if that is the better option.

 

Mercedes have had these tyre issues for years. The domination masked it.

 

If Seb gets pole and runs off into the distance, then I'll concede that Ferrari have a faster race car. But right now it is too close to call and I think Ferrari have a strategy advantage over Merc.



#26 baddog

baddog
  • Member

  • 30,547 posts
  • Joined: June 99

Posted 18 April 2017 - 11:22

ermm. very?

 

Watch the race again.. Lewis was not really faster overall at all. I mean he was competitive but not actually better.

 

It could go either way from here. 



#27 robefc

robefc
  • Member

  • 13,534 posts
  • Joined: July 08

Posted 18 April 2017 - 11:26

No, I think race pace it is equal. However, due to the wider strategy options Ferrari have the upper hand on Sunday. If they both put on a set of softs and ran for 20 laps, I'd expect Mercedes to start off quicker and Ferrari to be quicker at the end. That puts Ferrari in a position to be able to undercut Mercedes and overcut them if that is the better option.

Mercedes have had these tyre issues for years. The domination masked it.

If Seb gets pole and runs off into the distance, then I'll concede that Ferrari have a faster race car. But right now it is too close to call and I think Ferrari have a strategy advantage over Merc.


Disagree, different tyres and a different issue.

Not to mention Lewis often ran longest on the first stints over the last couple of years

Edited by robefc, 18 April 2017 - 11:27.


#28 P123

P123
  • Member

  • 25,534 posts
  • Joined: February 09

Posted 18 April 2017 - 11:39

They are both long way out ahead of the field.

 

I suspect we need a lot more than just 3 races, but so far between them Merc have a small advantage in quali, but close enough that any errors plus a stonking lap from a red car can pip them.  In the races their pace seems similar, but crucially Ferrari seems to work across a broader range or softer tyres/ temps/ heavy fuel, which has pretty much allowed them to hang with the Mercs and take advantage on strategy early in the races.  Of course, some of that is aided by the strategy failings of Mercedes.



#29 haryantofan666

haryantofan666
  • Member

  • 378 posts
  • Joined: May 16

Posted 18 April 2017 - 11:45

Mercedes to walk away with both titles I think

 

Shanghai and Bahrain were the best tracks for overtaking on the calender. The majority of races will be decided by qualifying where Mercedes already has an significant edge. I think this gap will only get bigger. Apperently the Merc is overweight, so they have some 'easy gains'. Also the Merc has a better front end and seems better through slow corners with superior traction. Most circuits have way more slow corners than really fast ones where Ferrari could have an edge.

Strategy wise teams will learn quickly and with most races being a one stop there's not much you can do.



#30 Mandzipop

Mandzipop
  • RC Forum Host

  • 5,146 posts
  • Joined: May 09

Posted 18 April 2017 - 11:54

Disagree, different tyres and a different issue.

Not to mention Lewis often ran longest on the first stints over the last couple of years

 

When the car is that dominant you can get away with it. But now we are in a different set of rules and Mercedes are tyre munching when it comes to having another car close to them on pace.

 

All I'm trying to say is that I see it that Merc have a quali advantage, albeit small. They are on par race pace wise. However, Ferrari are kinder on their tyres which means they have a strategic advantage which is potentially negating them not being on pole.

 

I'm not entirely sure what is controversial about that assessment.



#31 Blackoutjulian

Blackoutjulian
  • Member

  • 2,387 posts
  • Joined: April 16

Posted 18 April 2017 - 11:55

Mercedes to walk away with both titles I think

Shanghai and Bahrain were the best tracks for overtaking on the calender. The majority of races will be decided by qualifying where Mercedes already has an significant edge. I think this gap will only get bigger. Apperently the Merc is overweight, so they have some 'easy gains'. Also the Merc has a better front end and seems better through slow corners with superior traction. Most circuits have way more slow corners than really fast ones where Ferrari could have an edge.
Strategy wise teams will learn quickly and with most races being a one stop there's not much you can do.

Your username says it all ;)

#32 noikeee

noikeee
  • Member

  • 24,337 posts
  • Joined: February 06

Posted 18 April 2017 - 12:02

I'm not sure who's ahead on race pace. Vettel looked quicker than Hamilton in Melbourne, but in Bahrain Hamilton definitely looked quicker in the final stint... but Vettel also definitely was quicker than Bottas. I don't know whether Ferrari or Mercedes is ahead on Sundays overall, what I do know is that it's very different from last year. I don't agree at all with the OP they'd just cruise into the distance. I think we're in a completely different scenario here.

 

HOWEVER - Mercedes do seem much better in qualifying, and this will hurt Ferrari on other tracks where it's harder to pass. Even if Ferrari are quicker they won't just be able to jump them with strategy every single race, and it'll be doubly hard whenever Hamilton and Bottas manage to survive the first corner in a 1-2 sequence. So I do think the results so far flatter Ferrari slightly, and they don't have it that easy in theory for the remainder of the season (disregarding whatever happens when teams start bolting on upgrades to cars and engines). But they're right there on race pace.



#33 Timstr11

Timstr11
  • Member

  • 11,162 posts
  • Joined: May 02

Posted 18 April 2017 - 12:10

It could come down to which of the two car concepts has more development potential.

Which of the two concepts is better suited to the 2017 tyres!? 



#34 AlexS

AlexS
  • Member

  • 6,851 posts
  • Joined: September 03

Posted 18 April 2017 - 12:19

Mercedes is faster, if they manage 1-2 at start they have the race in bag in every track that is not easy to pass on condition they don't have troubles with tires. Also for now Ferrari is more unreliable so in theory Mercedes appear to have more development margin.

 

But Mercedes car have a nemesis: following other cars, if they get stuck behind others due to need to prevent undercut it might be a problem.



#35 robefc

robefc
  • Member

  • 13,534 posts
  • Joined: July 08

Posted 18 April 2017 - 12:46

When the car is that dominant you can get away with it. But now we are in a different set of rules and Mercedes are tyre munching when it comes to having another car close to them on pace.
 
All I'm trying to say is that I see it that Merc have a quali advantage, albeit small. They are on par race pace wise. However, Ferrari are kinder on their tyres which means they have a strategic advantage which is potentially negating them not being on pole.
 
I'm not entirely sure what is controversial about that assessment.


Well with all due respect that wasn't all you said.

And I'm still not convinced about the being kinder on tyres thing anyway (although it is a popular opinion). Firstly because there is a difference between making tyres last and not being able to get them to work - it seems it's the latter where Ferrari may have an advantage - and secondly because we have very little data and it's mainly the first stint of the races these conclusions are being based on.

#36 HoldenRT

HoldenRT
  • Member

  • 6,773 posts
  • Joined: May 05

Posted 18 April 2017 - 13:40

Ferrari seem to have an ever so slight advantage in race pace, but it depends on the context of track temps, the tyre of circuit and the tyres being allocated.  Averaged out, Ferrari have a small advantage IMO.  But it's close enough so that either team can beat each other, considering qualifying (which Merc will dominate for the next races) or the race start, or safety cars and strategy calls.  Both teams can't really afford to make mistakes and if they execute a good race can win.  So it sets up a great championship fight between Lewis and Seb. All of this is assuming the cars stay relatively equal.  If one team dominates the development race, their margin for error will grow.  The other thing not mentioned so far is reliability.  It's a huge factor.  For example.. if Seb wins 3 races in a row and Lewis finishes 2nd every time, and then Seb DNF's the next race and Lewis wins......

 

If it's two mechanical failures vs one for the other driver, that could play a huge part.. because after 3 races, the race pace seems very close.  With Ferrari having the edge on the softer compound tyres and Merc on the harder compound.



#37 Mandzipop

Mandzipop
  • RC Forum Host

  • 5,146 posts
  • Joined: May 09

Posted 18 April 2017 - 17:41

Well with all due respect that wasn't all you said.

And I'm still not convinced about the being kinder on tyres thing anyway (although it is a popular opinion). Firstly because there is a difference between making tyres last and not being able to get them to work - it seems it's the latter where Ferrari may have an advantage - and secondly because we have very little data and it's mainly the first stint of the races these conclusions are being based on.

 

For the past 3 years Mercedes have had the luxury of a car that is so dominant that even when the tyres drop off, it is still faster than the opposition. The fights were only between Lewis and Nico. Had they have been with another team the story might have been very different. Prior to their domination they were very susceptible to high tyre wear. I hope that makes more sense.



#38 Ferrari2183

Ferrari2183
  • Member

  • 11,907 posts
  • Joined: May 09

Posted 18 April 2017 - 17:55

For the past 3 years Mercedes have had the luxury of a car that is so dominant that even when the tyres drop off, it is still faster than the opposition. The fights were only between Lewis and Nico. Had they have been with another team the story might have been very different. Prior to their domination they were very susceptible to high tyre wear. I hope that makes more sense.

You're not the only one who thinks their dominance has masked their tyre woes. Pat Symonds also seems to think so.

I'm also inclined to believe it because they never really had to go full beans. They could trundle around at 3/4 pace like Vettel in the final stint and save the tyres if ever they needed it.

#39 Kulturen

Kulturen
  • Member

  • 1,142 posts
  • Joined: October 14

Posted 18 April 2017 - 18:11

They were also favoured by Pirelli both by making the tyres harder and by the choice of what tyres they brought to the GPs. Not that it would have changed the final outcome but in 2015 if Pirelli didn't keep bringing bizzarly and unecessarily harder than required compounds to each GP I bet that Ferrari would have been in with a chance to win a few more times on top of what they did.

 

This has now changed and coupled with the fact that 3 choices are available each GP I am VERY curious to see what happens when teams start nominating. Choices in the past have been obvious and similar across teams but who knows, we may see interesting stuff this year. If Ferrari consistently gets better use out of the tyres, especially the softer compounds and Merc has issues, they may get pressured into bringing harder tyres which then prove to be too slow.


Edited by Kulturen, 19 April 2017 - 07:38.


Advertisement

#40 ferkan

ferkan
  • Member

  • 2,298 posts
  • Joined: February 16

Posted 18 April 2017 - 18:12

Yea Hamilton has said again today that they dont really understan tires completely. Hopefully Seb continues to look like hound dog pressuring them to run their tires until they go bald.

#41 xtremeclock

xtremeclock
  • Member

  • 1,687 posts
  • Joined: May 15

Posted 18 April 2017 - 18:16

- W08 is quicker over a single lap thanks to the magic button.

 

- Race pace, they are pretty equal assuming we are only comparing Hamilton and Vettel BUT the SF70H seems to have better control on the tyre-deg aspect and they can follow other cars without any problems.

 

- In Bahrain i saw Vettel pretty much glued to VB's diffuser, Hamilton couldn't do the same with Vettel (or Verstappen @ Australia)

 

 

 

Come race day i would definitely pick the SF70H but if Mercedes keep starting in the front row it will be very hard for Ferrari.



#42 f1paul

f1paul
  • Member

  • 8,276 posts
  • Joined: April 16

Posted 18 April 2017 - 18:20

I think Mercedes have got a quarter of a second on Ferrari in qualy

In the race, I think Mercedes and Ferrari are very close but Mercedes probably still edge it by less than a tenth, if that to be honest.

 

Both teams have got a lot to come and I think they can be up to 2 seconds quicker than they are now by the time we get to Abu Dhabi.



#43 FNG

FNG
  • Member

  • 5,972 posts
  • Joined: June 01

Posted 18 April 2017 - 18:36

Mercedes seems to make some interesting, or maybe bad strategy calls during the race. They haven't had to deal with close competition for some time. This could be a factor going forward too.



#44 TomNokoe

TomNokoe
  • Member

  • 35,642 posts
  • Joined: July 11

Posted 18 April 2017 - 18:37

Mercedes is the faster car overall but this advantage comes down in the races and with marginal tyre compounds.

#45 Ricardo F1

Ricardo F1
  • Member

  • 61,849 posts
  • Joined: August 99

Posted 19 April 2017 - 01:28

Merc in qualifying trim, even in race trim with Ferrari benefitting from tyre wear advantage. Going to be fascinating.

#46 Vettelari

Vettelari
  • Member

  • 1,564 posts
  • Joined: July 15

Posted 19 April 2017 - 01:41

With Seb's way of getting so much more out of his tires during the race, I'd actually give the race pace advantage to Ferrari. He has almost no wash while following cars and passes at will. I don't think HAM is capable of running away in the first stint due to Ferraris advantage in race pace.

Some of these future tracks will help determine who is where. The first 3 races could've been wins for either HAM or VET due to strategical decisions made, and I think VET is capable of pulling those strategies off due to his superior race pace by a tenth it two in race trim.

Ferrari still have got to figure out qualifying. On a track where passing is extremely difficult and it is only a one stop, he can't afford to qualify 3rd and have much chance at taking the win.

It's so much fun seeing 2 drivers at their peak in different cars battling it out so closely. Almost like a classic Schumacher vs. Hakkinen battle from yesterday year. The best on the grid finishing 1-2 in nearly every race.

#47 jjcale

jjcale
  • Member

  • 16,192 posts
  • Joined: October 09

Posted 19 April 2017 - 03:53

You're not the only one who thinks their dominance has masked their tyre woes. Pat Symonds also seems to think so.

I'm also inclined to believe it because they never really had to go full beans. They could trundle around at 3/4 pace like Vettel in the final stint and save the tyres if ever they needed it.

James Allison will solve their tyre issues... he is the king of getting a chassis to conserve the tyres (or maybe that's the guy(s) at Force India :p ) .... question is: can he do it in 2017 ...or will that have to wait till 2018??


Edited by jjcale, 19 April 2017 - 03:55.


#48 jjcale

jjcale
  • Member

  • 16,192 posts
  • Joined: October 09

Posted 19 April 2017 - 04:02

They were also favoured by Pirelli both by making the tyres harder and by the choice of what tyres they brought to the GPs. Not that it would have changed the final outcome but in 2015 if Pirelli didn't keep bringing bizzarly and unecessarily harder than required compounds to each GP I bet that Ferrari would have been in with a chance to win a few more times on top of what they did.

 

This has now changed and coupled with the fact that 3 choices are available each GP I am VERY curious to see what happens when teams start nominating. Choices in the past have been obvious and similar across teams but who knows, we may see interesting stuff this year. If Ferrari consistently gets better use out of the tyres, especially the softer compounds and Merc has issues, they may get pressures into bringing harder tyres which then prove to be too slow.

 

- W08 is quicker over a single lap thanks to the magic button.

 

- Race pace, they are pretty equal assuming we are only comparing Hamilton and Vettel BUT the SF70H seems to have better control on the tyre-deg aspect and they can follow other cars without any problems.

 

- In Bahrain i saw Vettel pretty much glued to VB's diffuser, Hamilton couldn't do the same with Vettel (or Verstappen @ Australia)

 

 

 

Come race day i would definitely pick the SF70H but if Mercedes keep starting in the front row it will be very hard for Ferrari.

 

So ... for now Sundays will turn into that new reality show:  Merc has the lead - but can they keep it? ... Tune in next time to see how SV will pick their pockets! 



#49 Lights

Lights
  • Member

  • 17,887 posts
  • Joined: February 10

Posted 13 May 2017 - 18:50

If you look at sections like chicanes, low speed corners, high speed corners etc., how do they generally compare?



#50 Marklar

Marklar
  • Member

  • 44,842 posts
  • Joined: May 15

Posted 13 May 2017 - 18:53

IMO

Low speed: Mercedes
Medium speed: Ferrari
High speed: Ferrari
Direction changes: Mercedes