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What if Hamilton had not signed for Mercedes?


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#1 dierome87

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 14:12

Let's try to play alternate history in this off-season.

 

After Hamilton's displays of dominance over the past 4 years (yeah, he should have won 2016 too), I wonder how different things would look had he chosen to stay at McLaren in 2013. 

 

Back then, there was little indication that McLaren would not win a race again, or that Mercedes would become such a dominant team. Who would Mercedes have picked instead? How long would Hamilton have stayed at McLaren? Would Nico Rosberg be a multiple WDC instead?



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#2 Marklar

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 14:16

Schumacher would have extended for another year.

If Hamilton had signed a new McLaren contract with a opt-out clause then he would have probably join Mercedes a year later, thus changing little in the timeline.

If not, then Rosberg would probably be multiple WDC.

#3 Lennat

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 14:20

Rosberg would be an "All time great". :rotfl:



#4 SenorSjon

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 14:21

Schumacher doubted for a long time to extend his contract. When he didn't decide, Mercedes did and they lured Hamilton in. Otherwise the 2013 line-up would have been Schumacher - Rosberg.

 

Remember, that in 2012, Schumacher had trouble in the first seven races, most of it not his own doing. After that, the team was a distant 3rd-4th and they drove a bit like Red Bull this year.


Edited by SenorSjon, 05 December 2017 - 14:37.


#5 RECKLESS

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 14:21

Häkkinen would have taken that Merc seat and come back to beat Rosberg in 2014-2016 to make it 5 x WDC.

#6 sopa

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 14:29

 

Back then, there was little indication that McLaren would not win a race again, or that Mercedes would become such a dominant team. Who would Mercedes have picked instead? How long would Hamilton have stayed at McLaren? Would Nico Rosberg be a multiple WDC instead?

 

2013 would have already been a game-changer though. Mercedes much stronger and it was already widely speculated that 2014 would be an engine formula and works teams would have an edge. So Schumacher's Merc drive would have been a hotly contested silly season seat for 2014.

 

However, if for some reason Hamilton would not have gone to Mercedes, i.e a long-term solid McLaren contract? Who knows, maybe it would have been Raikkonen instead, looking for a change after Lotus going almost bankrupt? Or Hulkenberg on the back of his impressive Sauber season?  :eek:  :p Unlikely Vettel or Alonso would have jumped ship in case of an available seat at that time.



#7 SenorSjon

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 14:38

Schumacher was getting the upper hand in the 2012. I wonder what would have happened in '13 and '14.



#8 noikeee

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 14:40

Either Alonso or Vettel would find their way there, or Hamilton would move there anyway, only later.

 

Lots have been written about how shocking this move was, how big a gamble it was, etc. It's true that nobody could've predicted the sudden fall of McLaren, but Mercedes coming good, specially with large regulation changes to come, wasn't THAT surprising. They were the only true remaining manufacturer team apart from Ferrari and were banking everything on the '14 reg changes. This made them a logical gamble for any top driver to take, and even if nobody did, pretty sure once 2014 happened everyone would line up to partner Rosberg.
 
We could've had Rosberg winning the 14 title then being paired with Vettel the next year as he runs away from Red Bull (and Ricciardo). And Alonso and Hamilton swapping Ferrari/McLaren seats.  :D


#9 steferrari

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 14:40

2013 would have already been a game-changer though. Mercedes much stronger and it was already widely speculated that 2014 would be an engine formula and works teams would have an edge. So Schumacher's Merc drive would have been a hotly contested silly season seat for 2014.

 

Maybe Michael himself (especially if his 2013 performance had been good) would have pushed to stay for 2014, knowing that they was going to be so strong.



#10 7MGTEsup

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 14:46

Schumacher 11x WDC?



#11 Ramon69

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 14:48

Schumacher was getting the upper hand in the 2012. I wonder what would have happened in '13 and '14.

Rosberg would have been a triple champion by now. 



#12 Afterburner

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 14:51

Schumacher might not have had his skiing accident...

#13 Pimpwerx

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 15:25

Nico would be an all-time great...and it honestly wouldn't feel undeserved. He's really fast, so he would probably have dominated his teammate and stormed off to 4 straight titles, Vettel style. It's really funny how fate works.



#14 sopa

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 15:30

Nico would be an all-time great...and it honestly wouldn't feel undeserved. He's really fast, so he would probably have dominated his teammate and stormed off to 4 straight titles, Vettel style. It's really funny how fate works.

 

Nico would have probably lost one title (due to reliability) though, like Lewis lost one title to Nico.

 

And then the forum would have been full of complaints.

 

"Driver X (pick your choice) most undeserving champion ever, Rosberg deserved to win!"



#15 SenorSjon

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 15:31

Rosberg would have been a triple champion by now. 

 

Don't think so. Rosberg had the points advantage all in the first half of the season, when the car scored good points when it was mighty around China (loose wheel) and Rosberg could roadblock Monaco (where Schumacher had pole, but a 5 place penalty...)..

 

Compare Verstappen vs. Ricciardo. It is hard to make up any points defiicit if you are not finishing top 4.


Edited by SenorSjon, 05 December 2017 - 15:32.


#16 LuckyStrike1

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 15:46

Alonso would have been a 4-time champion 



#17 Fatgadget

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 15:57

Alonso would have been a 4-time champion 

Anyone could have been  4X world champion in that Merc! :wave:



#18 PayasYouRace

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 16:10

Schumacher was getting the upper hand in the 2012. I wonder what would have happened in '13 and '14.


Depends if he still went skiing in December 2013.

#19 Atreiu

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 16:13

Rosberg would be an "All time great". :rotfl:

 

The horror.



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#20 ConsiderAndGo

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 16:15

Rosberg would have been a triple champion by now. 

Tbf, Alex Yoong would have been at least a 3x champ in the Merc.


Edited by ConsiderAndGo, 05 December 2017 - 16:15.


#21 sopa

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 16:26

Tbf, Alex Yoong would have been at least a 3x champ in the Merc.

 

Only if Yuji Ide was his team-mate.  :p

 

But even then I think neither would have made it. Mercedes wasn't that dominant. 



#22 as65p

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 16:42

Anyone could have been  4X world champion in that Merc! :wave:

 

Ts... the Hamilton haters at it again. Show some respect for his 3 Mercedes titles, FFS.

 

:smoking:

 



#23 Ramon69

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 16:48

Stop kidding yourselves, Schumacher wouldn't have been able to drive at Hamilton's level at that age and after 3 years spent outside F1...

 

As for Rosberg, let's not forget that he challenged one of the best F1 drivers of this current era, yet some of you consider to be him below average, which I find hilarious. Where does this leave Button, as he didn't even challenge Lewis that hard as Nico did?



#24 Marklar

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 17:07

Where does this leave Button, as he didn't even challenge Lewis that hard as Nico did?

He challenged him more than Nico did imo, though at different stages of his career.

#25 Atreiu

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 17:21

Nico winning more wouldn't have changed who he was. Fast, consistent and perfectly capable of picking it up whenever his teammate dropped the ball. But not brilliant neither an all time great. Definitely above average.

 

I don't think he would have beat Vettel this season. He barely beat Vettel in 2015. After the US, they were only 4 points apart in the standings. Despite finishing the season with 3 wins in a row, he finished closer to Vettel (44 points) than to Hamilton (59).

 

Even with Hamilton out of the picture, he would have been troubled by several other potential teammates and there is no guarantee he'd have become a multiple WDC.

 

In certain aspects he's like Mansell. There are clear parellels. Unremarkable first years, suddenly gets a rocket, wins races and loses titles, suddenly wins a wide open season and imediately steps away.

 

---

 

There's a reason he retired immediately after winning instead of keeping the foot on the trottle to pile up his achivements.


Edited by Atreiu, 05 December 2017 - 17:33.


#26 SilverArrow31

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 17:24

Alot of people forget that if Rosberg had been the lead driver at Mercedes in 2015, Ferrari would have had a very similar year to 2017 and would have had a chance. Vettel was Hamilton's closest challenger at the end of the US grand prix when the title was decided.


Edited by SilverArrow31, 05 December 2017 - 17:25.


#27 sopa

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 17:27

He challenged him more than Nico did imo, though at different stages of his career.

 

Apart from 2011, when Hamilton himself performed at a lesser level, I find Rosberg and Button versus Hamilton very similar, with different strengths and weaknesses.



#28 BuddyHolly

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 18:13

Possibly Schumacher 10x WDC



#29 Piif

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 18:18

Schumacher might not have had his skiing accident...

 

So in the end it was Hamiltons fault.



#30 NewMrMe

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 19:25

For a while in 2012 Hamilton was considering whether or not to move to Mercedes and Schumacher was considering retirement. There is a possible combination where Hamilton decided to stay at McLaren and Schumacher retired. If I remember correctly from the silly season rumours, if that had of happened Merc would then have considered the Force India drivers. It is therefore possible that Hulkenberg or di Resta could have found themself in the car alongside Rosberg.



#31 F1Champion

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 19:42

Schumacher might not have had his skiing accident...

 

Sadly possibly true :cry: . Would like to think Michael could have had another crack at a WDC  :eek: . Two Germans winning everything would have meant Mercedes keep everything the same, although Toto and Niki would have got rid of Michael eventually I think, plus I don't think Michael would have gelled with Niki much especially after Ross was booted. But if Michael was still in the team, I'd like to think that he could have politically put enough pressure to keep Ross in his job.


Edited by F1Champion, 05 December 2017 - 19:44.


#32 DutchQuicksilver

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 19:51

Nothing would have changed. Hamilton would have moved to Mercedes for 2014 anyway after a dismal 2013 in that McLaren. Schumacher didn’t have the pace anymore, though in that 2014 Mercedes even at an age of 45 he could have scored podiums for sure.

#33 SCUDmissile

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 20:04

Michael would have added to his titles. Rosberg would have more.

#34 Afterburner

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 20:43

So in the end it was Hamiltons fault.

Yeah. We might have avoided the HALO too if only he’d stayed at McLaren. Bastard.

#35 chunder27

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 22:59

What if the earth was 1000 miles closer to the sun!

 

Jeez you can tell its the off season



#36 Bloggsworth

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 23:06

What if fish kettles made lobster tea? What if ifs and ands were pots and pans? Is this forum turning into a site for posting short fiction?



#37 jjcale

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 23:33

You have to understand something ..... Merc (particularly in the form of Dr Z) LOVES LH - and I would say the feeling is mutual ..... once they started their own team it was inevitable that LH would drive for them .... and particularly once it became clear Merc was going to be strong with the new engine formula. 

 

I will also make this prediction ... Merc will significantly scale down their presence in F1 once LH retires or moves on to Ferrari in say 2020/21 (as this will mean that Merc is no longer strong - and their biggest asset, LH no longer with them). 



#38 Fatgadget

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 23:52

What if the earth was 1000 miles closer to the sun!

 

Jeez you can tell its the off season

Thought you no longer followed F1! :D



#39 Celloman

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 00:22

Possibly Schumacher 10x WDC

Michael would have added to his titles. Rosberg would have more.

If we consider that a 41-43 year old Schumacher did not manage to beat Rosberg in points in a single season, what makes you think that a 45+ year old Schumacher (which he would be from 2014 onwards) would suddenly manage to improve rather than decline?


Edited by Celloman, 06 December 2017 - 00:23.


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#40 Celloman

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 00:33

Tbf, Alex Yoong would have been at least a 3x champ in the Merc.

Nope, unless you paired him with Yuji Ide. People always forget that you have to beat your team-mate as well.



#41 RacingGreen

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 00:53

How many weeks are there until the 2018 car launches and testing starts again ?



#42 Tsarwash

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 03:58

Nico winning more wouldn't have changed who he was. Fast, consistent and perfectly capable of picking it up whenever his teammate dropped the ball. But not brilliant neither an all time great. Definitely above average.

 

I don't think he would have beat Vettel this season. He barely beat Vettel in 2015. After the US, they were only 4 points apart in the standings. Despite finishing the season with 3 wins in a row, he finished closer to Vettel (44 points) than to Hamilton (59).

 

Even with Hamilton out of the picture, he would have been troubled by several other potential teammates and there is no guarantee he'd have become a multiple WDC.

 

In certain aspects he's like Mansell. There are clear parellels. Unremarkable first years, suddenly gets a rocket, wins races and loses titles, suddenly wins a wide open season and imediately steps away.

 

---

 

There's a reason he retired immediately after winning instead of keeping the foot on the trottle to pile up his achivements.

 Utter Rubbish. In 2015 Rosberg has retirements that cost him 15 points in Italy, and 25 points in Russia plus an extra seven points that Lewis additionally took by inheriting the lead. Lewis lost 12 plus two to Nico at Singapore. That would put them at Lewis 395, Nico 367 and Seb 278 (Or 293 for Belgium). Please stop this biased revisionist crap. 



#43 kernel

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 08:59

 Utter Rubbish. In 2015 Rosberg has retirements that cost him 15 points in Italy, and 25 points in Russia plus an extra seven points that Lewis additionally took by inheriting the lead. Lewis lost 12 plus two to Nico at Singapore. That would put them at Lewis 395, Nico 367 and Seb 278 (Or 293 for Belgium). Please stop this biased revisionist crap. 

 

You can't look at the final point gap as Lewis took the foot off the gas in the last 3-4 races of the year after clinching the title. 

 

Also, it's debatable as to whether Nico would have actually won Russia. Lewis had much better race pace all year long.



#44 SenorSjon

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 09:20

If we consider that a 41-43 year old Schumacher did not manage to beat Rosberg in points in a single season, what makes you think that a 45+ year old Schumacher (which he would be from 2014 onwards) would suddenly manage to improve rather than decline?

 

Like I stated before, Rosberg's gap to Schumacher came the first half of the season. In the latter part of 2012, Mercedes faded. Combined with his unreliability streak and the endless managing of the squishy tires, he had enough. There is a topic here somewhere with quotes from teammembers Schumacher lost quite some weight from 2010-2012 and gained performance.



#45 Coral

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 14:29

Well, from what I could see, Lewis was always going to join Mercedes...his relationship with McLaren had broken down, and Ferrari and Red Bull didn't want him, so the only option for him in F1 was Mercedes. The only other option was either retirement or a move to NASCAR possibly. if the latter had happened then I reckon Rosberg would have won at least one WDC, possibly more..maybe Vettel or Alonso as well.

 

But I as said, Lewis was always going to join Mercedes. How did it all go so right! :clap:


Edited by Coral, 06 December 2017 - 14:31.


#46 JG

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 14:42

What if Alesi gone to Williams-Renault, instead of Ferrari? Etc.



#47 KrlBrmmn

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 14:48

He wouldn't have won a race for last 5 years and probably have quit F1.



#48 Atreiu

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 14:49

What if Alesi gone to Williams-Renault, instead of Ferrari? Etc.

 

He would have remained fast and erratic.



#49 SonGoku

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 19:16

I think a Hamilton move to Mercedes was always on the cards, he would have given the McLaren project probably another year, but would then leave. 

 

Hamilton has driven with a Mercedes engine in F3, and all his ten years in F1. He IS Mercedes through and through.



#50 sopa

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 19:54

He would have remained fast and erratic.

 

A shoe-in for the 1992 championship though, because... didn't Williams hunt Alesi after Mansell had announced his retirement from F1 during 1990? So the initial plan was an Alesi-Patrese line-up for 1991, but Alesi went for Ferrari and Williams needed a new #1 driver and wooed Mansell to continue in F1.