31 replies to this topic

[SpaceHorseParty]

As promised, the results of the 2019 Silly Season Trophy will be updated after each contract is confirmed. Although I'm sure the results were a nice surprise so long after the guesses were made, it should be a lot more interesting to follow the progress of the game throughout the year.
 
With more than a year to go, only two drivers at the moment are confirmed to be contracted for 2019: Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari) and Max Verstappen (Red Bull). These two drivers were among the few who were picked by all players. Since both of them were also universally predicted to stay in their current teams (sharing this distinction with Hülkenberg and Gasly, whose contract situations are less clear), this makes the results pretty boring at the moment. 

Place	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	SpaceHorseParty		25	+25	2	1
2	Marklar			25	+25	2	2
3	sladealonso		25	+25	2	3
4	Brawn BGP 001		25	+25	2	4
5	markelov74		25	+25	2	5
6	KWSN - DSM		25	+25	2	6
7	noikeee			25	+25	2	7
8	Makarias		25	+25	2	8
9	scheivlak		25	+25	2	9
10	TurnOffTheLights	25	+25	2	10
11	RaikkonenFan96		25	+25	2	11
12	Kev00			25	+25	2	12
13	turk157			25	+25	2	13
14	M2000-5			25	+25	2	14
15	Costaz			25	+25	2	15
16	DutchQuicksilver	25	+25	2	16
17	f1paul			25	+25	2	17
18	Grayson			25	+25	2	18
	AVERAGE PICK		25	+25	2		

All players are level with 25 points each. They receive 5 points for Vettel, 5 points for Verstappen, and 15 points for the three empty team spots on the 2019 grid. With 2 exact driver picks each, we have to turn to the final tiebreaker: the submission order. The order is listed on the rightmost column.
 
It might be more interesting to look at the potential points. This shows the maximum possible points haul for each of the players. While the difference column in the actual points table is unlikely to ever show negative numbers, this is all we should expect from it in the potential points table. It is listed below:

Place	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	scheivlak		144.24	+144.24	20	9
2	Brawn BGP 001		142.35	+142.35	20	4
3	M2000-5			139.53	+139.53	20	14
4	DutchQuicksilver	139.53	+139.53	20	16
5	noikeee			139.06	+139.06	20	7
6	f1paul			135.12	+135.12	20	17
7	Marklar			132.53	+132.53	20	2
8	sladealonso		132.18	+132.18	20	3
9	SpaceHorseParty		131.82	+131.82	20	1
10	markelov74		130.65	+130.65	20	5
11	KWSN - DSM		130.53	+130.53	20	6
12	TurnOffTheLights	130.53	+130.53	20	10
13	turk157			130.53	+130.53	20	13
14	Grayson			130.53	+130.53	20	18
15	Kev00			130.29	+130.29	20	12
16	RaikkonenFan96		130.06	+130.06	20	11
17	Costaz			129.35	+129.35	20	15
	AVERAGE PICK		129.35	+129.35	20	
18	Makarias		128.24	+128.24	19	8

With unique picks being so richly rewarded, it is no surprise that the five players who managed to pick unique drivers are the same ones who comprise the top five here. f1paul is the best of the rest, with two unique driver/team combinations (Norris to Williams, Kubica to Force India) and a few more rare ones. The average pick, being a combination of the most expected (and thus least rewarded) picks, is close to the bottom – but that is expected to change as more teams confirm their lineups.
 
There is probably a long wait ahead until we get a confirmation on another one of the 2019 seats – but as soon as that happens, expect updates here!

Edited by SpaceHorseParty, 16 August 2018 - 19:42.

[M2000-5]

Considering that in the Place the Points competition when I am up in the standings prediction wise I end up dead last, this prediction will probably end the other way around, this time next year. 

[SpaceHorseParty]

Update #1: Sirotkin confirmed at Williams
 
This week, Sergey Sirotkin was confirmed at Williams for 2018. I initially missed that Sirotkin has a multi-year deal, which means he is also confirmed for 2019. This means that the results have to be recalculated.
 
Despite rumors linking him to Williams, not a single user picked Sirotkin to drive for any team. This means that the only players to benefit from this are Costaz and Grayson, both of whom used the option to pick an unknown driver for the second Williams seat. They now open have a five point lead over all other players.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	+14	Costaz			30	+5	3	15
2	+16	Grayson			30	+5	3	18
3	-2	SpaceHorseParty		25	 0	2	1
4	-2	Marklar			25	 0	2	2
5	-2	sladealonso		25	 0	2	3
6	-2	Brawn BGP 001		25	 0	2	4
7	-2	markelov74		25	 0	2	5
8	-2	KWSN - DSM		25	 0	2	6
9	-2	noikeee			25	 0	2	7
10	-2	Makarias		25	 0	2	8
11	-2	scheivlak		25	 0	2	9
12	-2	TurnOffTheLights	25	 0	2	10
13	-2	RaikkonenFan96		25	 0	2	11
14	-2	Kev00			25	 0	2	12
15	-2	turk157			25	 0	2	13
16	-2	M2000-5			25	 0	2	14
17	-1	DutchQuicksilver	25	 0	2	16
18	-1	f1paul			25	 0	2	17
		AVERAGE PICK		25	 0	2	

As for the potential results – as expected, all players except Costaz and Grayson lose a few points because only one of the Williams seats is now available. Moreover, at least one of their picks will not be on the 2019 grid, unless there is a new team or a last minute need for a reserve driver.  

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	 0	scheivlak		139.24	-5.00	19	9
2	 0	Brawn BGP 001		137.35	-5.00	19	4
3	 0	M2000-5			134.53	-5.00	19	14
4	 0	DutchQuicksilver	134.53	-5.00	19	16
5	 0	noikeee			134.06	-5.00	19	7
6	+8	Grayson			130.53	 0.00	20	18
7	-1	f1paul			130.12	-5.00	19	17
8	+9	Costaz			129.35	 0.00	20	15
9	+9	Makarias		128.24	 0.00	19	8
10	-3	Marklar			127.53	-5.00	19	2
11	-3	sladealonso		127.18	-5.00	19	3
12	-3	SpaceHorseParty		126.82	-5.00	19	1
13	-3	markelov74		125.65	-5.00	19	5
14	-3	KWSN - DSM		125.53	-5.00	19	6
15	-3	TurnOffTheLights	125.53	-5.00	19	10
16	-3	turk157			125.53	-5.00	19	13
17	-2	Kev00			125.29	-5.00	19	12
18	-2	RaikkonenFan96		125.06	-5.00	19	11
		AVERAGE PICK		124.35	-5.00	19	

The top five of the potential standings is unchanged. Grayson and Costaz move up to 6th and 8th place, respectively. Since Makarias already had one driver wrong due to picking Ocon twice, he already, essentially, lost points for not picking Sirotkin the last time, so he moves up to 9th place. Most players lose 5 points for Gasly, the most boring available pick.

 
Note that Gasly is only temporarily dropped from the players' scores – the boring picks are the first ones to suffer due to being worth less points. When these drivers get confirmed for 2019, some of the less popular, but more rewarding picks will no longer count towards the players' potential score due to the seats being filled.

Edited by SpaceHorseParty, 16 August 2018 - 19:49.

[SpaceHorseParty]

Update #2: Hamilton confirmed at Mercedes
 
It's taken half a year for another driver to be confirmed for 2019 – but it's not the sort of announcement that gives silly season its name. Lewis Hamilton has, after a long period of talks, signed a deal that will see him drive for Mercedes in 2019 and 2020.
 
Two players, Brawn BGP 001 and M2000-5, thought Hamilton would not make the 2019 grid. Although it seemed likelier with each delay in the confirmation of this deal, it seems like they made the wrong decision and therefore lose points relative to others.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	0	Costaz			35.24	+5	4	15
2	0	Grayson			35.24	+5	4	18
3	0	SpaceHorseParty		30.24	+5	3	1
4	0	Marklar			30.24	+5	3	2
5	0	sladealonso		30.24	+5	3	3
6	+1	markelov74		30.24	+5	3	5
7	+1	KWSN - DSM		30.24	+5	3	6
8	+1	noikeee			30.24	+5	3	7
9	+1	Makarias		30.24	+5	3	8
10	+1	scheivlak		30.24	+5	3	9
11	+1	TurnOffTheLights	30.24	+5	3	10
12	+1	RaikkonenFan96		30.24	+5	3	11
13	+1	Kev00			30.24	+5	3	12
14	+1	turk157			30.24	+5	3	13
15	+2	DutchQuicksilver	30.24	+5	3	16
16	+2	f1paul			30.24	+5	3	17
		AVERAGE PICK		30.24	+5	3	
17	-11	Brawn BGP 001		25.00	0	2	4
18	-2	M2000-5			25.00	0	2	14

The potential picks don't change much either. With only a few deals confirmed at this moment, the leaders here are still the players with risky picks.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	 0	scheivlak		139.24	 0.00	19	9
2	+2	DutchQuicksilver	134.53	 0.00	19	16
3	+2	noikeee			134.06	 0.00	19	7
4	-2	Brawn BGP 001		132.35	-5.00	18	4
5	+1	Grayson			130.53	 0.00	20	18
6	+1	f1paul			130.12	 0.00	19	17
7	-4	M2000-5			129.53	-5.00	18	14
8	 0	Costaz			129.35	 0.00	20	15
9	 0	Makarias		128.24	 0.00	19	8
10	 0	Marklar			127.53	 0.00	19	2
11	 0	sladealonso		127.18	 0.00	19	3
12	 0	SpaceHorseParty		126.82	 0.00	19	1
13	 0	markelov74		125.65	 0.00	19	5
14	 0	KWSN - DSM		125.53	 0.00	19	6
15	 0	TurnOffTheLights	125.53	 0.00	19	10
16	 0	turk157			125.53	 0.00	19	13
17	 0	Kev00			125.29	 0.00	19	12
18	 0	RaikkonenFan96		125.06	 0.00	19	11
		AVERAGE PICK		124.35	 0.00	19	

Edited by SpaceHorseParty, 16 August 2018 - 19:58.

[SpaceHorseParty]

Update #3: Bottas confirmed at Mercedes
 
Somewhat more unexpectedly (both last November and now), Bottas's contract has been extended for 2019. Many players expected Mercedes would consider changing their line-up for 2019, but it seems like it won't be the case. Some gain, some lose. Grayson moves ahead in the standings, having correctly guessed four of next year's drivers, as well as an unknown driver at Williams (for which he gets points, as nobody guessed Sirotkin).

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	+1	Grayson			41.41	+6.18	5	18
2	-1	Costaz			37.24	+2.00	4	15
3	+5	noikeee			36.41	+6.18	4	7
4	+6	scheivlak		36.41	+6.18	4	9
5	+6	TurnOffTheLights	36.41	+6.18	4	10
6	+6	RaikkonenFan96		36.41	+6.18	4	11
7	+6	Kev00			36.41	+6.18	4	12
8	+7	DutchQuicksilver	36.41	+6.18	4	16
		AVERAGE PICK		36.41	+6.18	4	
9	-6	SpaceHorseParty		32.24	+2.00	3	1
10	-6	Marklar			32.24	+2.00	3	2
11	-6	sladealonso		32.24	+2.00	3	3
12	-6	markelov74		32.24	+2.00	3	5
13	-6	KWSN - DSM		32.24	+2.00	3	6
14	-5	Makarias		32.24	+2.00	3	8
15	-1	turk157			32.24	+2.00	3	13
16	 0	f1paul			32.24	+2.00	3	17
17	+1	M2000-5			31.18	+6.18	3	14
18	-1	Brawn BGP 001		27.00	+2.00	2	4

In the potential standings we also start seeing bigger changes, but the top three retain their spots.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	 0	scheivlak		139.24	 0.00	19	9
2	 0	DutchQuicksilver	134.53	 0.00	19	16
3	 0	noikeee			134.06	 0.00	19	7
4	+1	Grayson			130.53	 0.00	20	18
5	+2	M2000-5			128.35	-1.18	18	14
6	+9	TurnOffTheLights	125.53	 0.00	19	10
7	+10	Kev00			125.29	 0.00	19	12
8	-4	Brawn BGP 001		125.24	-7.12	17	4
9	+9	RaikkonenFan96		125.06	 0.00	19	11
		AVERAGE PICK		124.35	 0.00	19	
10	-4	f1paul			124.06	-6.06	18	17
11	-2	Makarias		123.71	-4.53	18	8
12	-4	Costaz			122.82	-6.53	19	15
13	-3	Marklar			121.59	-5.94	18	2
14	-2	SpaceHorseParty		121.35	-5.47	18	1
15	-4	sladealonso		120.53	-6.65	18	3
16	-3	markelov74		120.18	-5.47	18	5
17	-3	KWSN - DSM		120.06	-5.47	18	6
18	-2	turk157			120.06	-5.47	18	13

Edited by SpaceHorseParty, 16 August 2018 - 20:09.

[SpaceHorseParty]

Just a quick note – I have noticed that the silly season is in full swing, and I will post a few updates in the coming days. There have been several reasons for the delay, one of which was a slight error in the potential points calculation, due to which I have had to adjust the points tables in the previous updates (the changes were not that big and only influenced the potential points). Hopefully, with the adjustments to the calculation (it is no longer done manually in Excel), it will be possible to prepare the updates faster in the future.

[SpaceHorseParty]

Update #4: Ricciardo confirmed at Renault
 
In one of the more interesting moves so far this silly season, Daniel Ricciardo has signed a contract with Renault. Unfortunately, this is not so interesting in terms of our game: every single player picked him, but not at Renault. Therefore everyone gets 2 points.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	 0	Grayson			43.41	+2.00	5	18
2	 0	Costaz			39.24	+2.00	4	15
3	 0	noikeee			38.41	+2.00	4	7
4	 0	scheivlak		38.41	+2.00	4	9
5	 0	TurnOffTheLights	38.41	+2.00	4	10
6	 0	RaikkonenFan96		38.41	+2.00	4	11
7	 0	Kev00			38.41	+2.00	4	12
8	 0	DutchQuicksilver	38.41	+2.00	4	16
		AVERAGE PICK		38.41	+2.00	4	
9	 0	SpaceHorseParty		34.24	+2.00	3	1
10	 0	Marklar			34.24	+2.00	3	2
11	 0	sladealonso		34.24	+2.00	3	3
12	 0	markelov74		34.24	+2.00	3	5
13	 0	KWSN - DSM		34.24	+2.00	3	6
14	 0	Makarias		34.24	+2.00	3	8
15	 0	turk157			34.24	+2.00	3	13
16	 0	f1paul			34.24	+2.00	3	17
17	 0	M2000-5			33.18	+2.00	3	14
18	 0	Brawn BGP 001		29.00	+2.00	2	4

As expected, everyone loses out in terms of potential points. The biggest losers, scheivlak and f1paul, predicted Ricciardo would move to McLaren (and if Zak Brown is to be believed, it wasn't that far from coming true!). Instead of scoring 6.76 points on that wild bet, they will have to settle with just 2 points.

 
Brawn BGP 001, Costaz, Marklar, and sladealonso lose only 3 potential points, as they all put Ricciardo in Mercedes. This meant they could only score 2 points for Ricciardo, and thus the best potential scenario for these players involved Ricciardo not appearing on the grid at all (as one seat is filled by Sirotkin). Now the best scenario for these players involves Gasly not being on the grid, and he used to bring 5 points for each of these players, should he appear for Toro Rosso.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	 0	scheivlak		134.35	-4.88	18	9
2	+1	noikeee			130.00	-4.06	18	7
3	-1	DutchQuicksilver	129.76	-4.76	18	16
4	 0	Grayson			125.76	-4.76	19	18
5	 0	M2000-5			124.29	-4.06	17	14
6	+2	Brawn BGP 001		122.24	-3.00	16	4
7	-1	TurnOffTheLights	121.47	-4.06	18	10
8	-1	Kev00			121.24	-4.06	18	12
9	 0	RaikkonenFan96		121.00	-4.06	18	11
		AVERAGE PICK		120.29	-4.06	18	
10	+2	Costaz			119.82	-3.00	18	15
11	-1	f1paul			119.18	-4.88	17	17
12	-1	Makarias		118.94	-4.76	17	8
13	 0	Marklar			118.59	-3.00	17	2
14	+1	sladealonso		117.53	-3.00	17	3
15	-1	SpaceHorseParty		117.29	-4.06	17	1
16	 0	markelov74		116.12	-4.06	17	5
17	 0	KWSN - DSM		116.00	-4.06	17	6
18	 0	turk157			116.00	-4.06	17	13

[SpaceHorseParty]

Update #5: Hülkenberg confirmed at Renault
 
This was no surprise to any of our players: Hülkenberg was one of the few drivers to be universally thought to be staying where he is. Therefore everyone gets 5 points for correctly predicting he would continue to drive for Renault in 2019.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	 0	Grayson			48.41	+5.00	6	18
2	 0	Costaz			44.24	+5.00	5	15
3	 0	noikeee			43.41	+5.00	5	7
4	 0	scheivlak		43.41	+5.00	5	9
5	 0	TurnOffTheLights	43.41	+5.00	5	10
6	 0	RaikkonenFan96		43.41	+5.00	5	11
7	 0	Kev00			43.41	+5.00	5	12
8	 0	DutchQuicksilver	43.41	+5.00	5	16
		AVERAGE PICK		43.41	+5.00	5	
9	 0	SpaceHorseParty		39.24	+5.00	4	1
10	 0	Marklar			39.24	+5.00	4	2
11	 0	sladealonso		39.24	+5.00	4	3
12	 0	markelov74		39.24	+5.00	4	5
13	 0	KWSN - DSM		39.24	+5.00	4	6
14	 0	Makarias		39.24	+5.00	4	8
15	 0	turk157			39.24	+5.00	4	13
16	 0	f1paul			39.24	+5.00	4	17
17	 0	M2000-5			38.18	+5.00	4	14
18	 0	Brawn BGP 001		34.00	+5.00	3	4

Nevertheless, due to both Renault seats now being filled, all players except sladealonso lose some points. A few players, who are now at the bottom of the potential points standings, lost more than 4 points. This is as a result of Renault no longer having any seats available, thus wiping out some of their more exotic choices (including Sainz to Renault). At the same time, these players are running out of options where they get drivers at the correct teams.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	 0	scheivlak		132.35	-2.00	18	9
2	 0	noikeee			128.94	-1.06	18	7
3	 0	DutchQuicksilver	127.76	-2.00	18	16
4	 0	Grayson			123.76	-2.00	19	18
5	 0	M2000-5			123.24	-1.06	17	14
6	+1	TurnOffTheLights	120.41	-1.06	18	10
7	-1	Brawn BGP 001		120.35	-1.88	16	4
8	 0	Kev00			120.18	-1.06	18	12
9	 0	RaikkonenFan96		119.94	-1.06	18	11
		AVERAGE PICK		119.24	-1.06	18	
10	 0	Costaz			117.94	-1.88	18	15
11	+3	sladealonso		117.53	 0.00	17	3
12	+1	Marklar			116.71	-1.88	17	2
13	-1	Makarias		114.35	-4.59	16	8
14	-3	f1paul			114.35	-4.82	16	17
15	 0	SpaceHorseParty		113.24	-4.06	16	1
16	 0	markelov74		112.06	-4.06	16	5
17	 0	KWSN - DSM		111.94	-4.06	16	6
18	 0	turk157			111.94	-4.06	16	13

Edited by SpaceHorseParty, 17 August 2018 - 19:58.

[SpaceHorseParty]

Update #6: Alonso will not compete in 2019

 

And with this week's announcement that Fernando Alonso will not be participating in Formula One next season, we have our first update that is not a driver confirmation. This does not affect the actual standings, but it does decrease most players' potential scores.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	 0	scheivlak		132.35	 0.00	18	9
2	 0	noikeee			125.71	-3.24	17	7
3	 0	DutchQuicksilver	124.53	-3.24	17	16
4	 0	Grayson			121.18	-2.59	18	18
5	 0	M2000-5			120.00	-3.24	16	14
6	+4	Costaz			117.94	 0.00	18	15
7	+4	sladealonso		117.29	-0.24	17	3
8	-2	TurnOffTheLights	117.18	-3.24	17	10
9	-2	Brawn BGP 001		117.18	-3.18	15	4
10	-2	Kev00			116.94	-3.24	17	12
11	-2	RaikkonenFan96		116.71	-3.24	17	11
		AVERAGE PICK		116.00	-3.24	17	
12	 0	Marklar			113.71	-3.00	16	2
13	+1	f1paul			111.12	-3.24	15	17
14	+1	SpaceHorseParty		110.00	-3.24	15	1
15	-2	Makarias		109.12	-5.24	15	8
16	 0	markelov74		108.82	-3.24	15	5
17	 0	KWSN - DSM		108.71	-3.24	15	6
18	 0	turk157			108.71	-3.24	15	13

scheivlak, who has been leading the potential standings since the start of the game, extends his lead over noikeee, as he was one of the two players (along with Costaz) to correctly predict Alonso would not be on the grid in 2019.

Edited by SpaceHorseParty, 17 August 2018 - 21:13.

[SpaceHorseParty]

Update #7: Sainz confirmed at McLaren

 

Much like Ricciardo's move, this one involves a driver whom everyone expected to be on the grid, but the team where he went was a surprise. The players were split between him staying at Renault and moving to Red Bull. All players get two points for correctly predicting Sainz will stay in F1, but not anticipating the McLaren move.

 

Grayson is the first player to break the 50 point barrier.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	 0	Grayson			50.41	+2.00	6	18
2	 0	Costaz			46.24	+2.00	5	15
3	 0	noikeee			45.41	+2.00	5	7
4	 0	scheivlak		45.41	+2.00	5	9
5	 0	TurnOffTheLights	45.41	+2.00	5	10
6	 0	RaikkonenFan96		45.41	+2.00	5	11
7	 0	Kev00			45.41	+2.00	5	12
8	 0	DutchQuicksilver	45.41	+2.00	5	16
		AVERAGE PICK		45.41	+2.00	5	
9	 0	SpaceHorseParty		41.24	+2.00	4	1
10	 0	Marklar			41.24	+2.00	4	2
11	 0	sladealonso		41.24	+2.00	4	3
12	 0	markelov74		41.24	+2.00	4	5
13	 0	KWSN - DSM		41.24	+2.00	4	6
14	 0	Makarias		41.24	+2.00	4	8
15	 0	turk157			41.24	+2.00	4	13
16	 0	f1paul			41.24	+2.00	4	17
17	 0	M2000-5			40.18	+2.00	4	14
18	 0	Brawn BGP 001		36.00	+2.00	3	4

As mentioned before, all players placed Sainz either in Renault or in Red Bull. This can be clearly seen in the potential standings. The ones who placed him at Renault could score no more than two points, as both Renault seats are taken. Therefore their potential best result is unchanged. The ones who placed him at Red Bull could still score 6.06 points, as the second Red Bull seat is still up for grabs – but with this announcement, Sainz is no longer being considered for it.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	 0	scheivlak		128.29	-4.06	17	9
2	 0	noikeee			125.71	 0.00	17	7
3	 0	DutchQuicksilver	120.47	-4.06	16	16
4	+1	M2000-5			120.00	 0.00	16	14
5	+3	TurnOffTheLights	117.18	 0.00	17	10
6	-2	Grayson			117.12	-4.06	17	18
7	+3	Kev00			116.94	 0.00	17	12
8	+3	RaikkonenFan96		116.71	 0.00	17	11
		AVERAGE PICK		116.00	 0.00	17	
9	-3	Costaz			113.88	-4.06	17	15
10	-3	sladealonso		113.24	-4.06	16	3
11	-2	Brawn BGP 001		113.12	-4.06	14	4
12	+2	SpaceHorseParty		110.00	 0.00	15	1
13	-1	Marklar			109.65	-4.06	15	2
14	+2	markelov74		108.82	 0.00	15	5
15	+2	KWSN - DSM		108.71	 0.00	15	6
16	+2	turk157			108.71	 0.00	15	13
17	-4	f1paul			107.06	-4.06	14	17
18	-3	Makarias		105.06	-4.06	14	8

And with that, the results are up to date. However, with many rumors of potential driver changes and contract extensions, I'm sure there will be a new update soon.

[SpaceHorseParty]

Update #8: Gasly confirmed at Red Bull

 

The announcement that Pierre Gasly would join Red Bull was, perhaps, the least surprising announcement of this silly season (at least with Ricciardo and Sainz confirmed at other teams). Back in November, nobody expected him to rise so quickly – after all, he had only done five races. Every single player put him in Toro Rosso, which gives everyone two more points.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	 0	Grayson			52.41	+2.00	6	18
2	 0	Costaz			48.24	+2.00	5	15
3	 0	noikeee			47.41	+2.00	5	7
4	 0	scheivlak		47.41	+2.00	5	9
5	 0	TurnOffTheLights	47.41	+2.00	5	10
6	 0	RaikkonenFan96		47.41	+2.00	5	11
7	 0	Kev00			47.41	+2.00	5	12
8	 0	DutchQuicksilver	47.41	+2.00	5	16
		AVERAGE PICK		47.41	+2.00	5	
9	 0	SpaceHorseParty		43.24	+2.00	4	1
10	 0	Marklar			43.24	+2.00	4	2
11	 0	sladealonso		43.24	+2.00	4	3
12	 0	markelov74		43.24	+2.00	4	5
13	 0	KWSN - DSM		43.24	+2.00	4	6
14	 0	Makarias		43.24	+2.00	4	8
15	 0	turk157			43.24	+2.00	4	13
16	 0	f1paul			43.24	+2.00	4	17
17	 0	M2000-5			42.18	+2.00	4	14
18	 0	Brawn BGP 001		38.00	+2.00	3	4

But it also means everyone loses three points in the potential standings. It might turn out to be an exciting move in terms of on-track action, but it certainly is the most boring one so far in the game.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	 0	scheivlak		125.29	-3.00	16	9
2	 0	noikeee			122.71	-3.00	16	7
3	 0	DutchQuicksilver	117.47	-3.00	15	16
4	 0	M2000-5			117.00	-3.00	15	14
5	 0	TurnOffTheLights	114.18	-3.00	16	10
6	 0	Grayson			114.12	-3.00	16	18
7	 0	Kev00			113.94	-3.00	16	12
8	 0	RaikkonenFan96		113.71	-3.00	16	11
		AVERAGE PICK		113.00	-3.00	16	
9	 0	Costaz			110.88	-3.00	16	15
10	 0	sladealonso		110.24	-3.00	15	3
11	 0	Brawn BGP 001		110.12	-3.00	13	4
12	 0	SpaceHorseParty		107.00	-3.00	14	1
13	 0	Marklar			106.65	-3.00	14	2
14	 0	markelov74		105.82	-3.00	14	5
15	 0	KWSN - DSM		105.71	-3.00	14	6
16	 0	turk157			105.71	-3.00	14	13
17	 0	f1paul			104.06	-3.00	13	17
18	 0	Makarias		102.06	-3.00	13	8

[KWSN - DSM]

I am strangely close to bottom...

 

[Costaz]

Just to say thanks to SpaceHorseParty, it's really good fun following the silly season (and our inept - or not - guesses) this way . 

[f1paul]

I am strangely close to bottom...

 

Same...

 

[Grayson]

Just to say thanks to SpaceHorseParty, it's really good fun following the silly season (and our inept - or not - guesses) this way . 

 

I agree - it's quite fun to have a yardstick of how surprising all of the silly season moves have been based on how many of us guessed them at the end of last year!

[SpaceHorseParty]

Update #9: Vandoorne to leave McLaren

 

McLaren made two announcements today in short succession. I'll start with the first one, which only influences the potential results. After a disappointing season, it has been confirmed that Stoffel Vandoorne will not be driving for McLaren in 2019. With his stellar junior series record, many expected Vandoorne to stay in McLaren for many years to come – indeed, 12 out of 18 players guessed so. Their potential points tally has dropped with this announcement.

 

At this moment, it is uncertain whether Vandoorne will be on the grid next year. The only one to predict his absence was Grayson. The other five players put him in one of the Force India seats, in Haas, or in Renault – so it seems unlikely Vandoorne will be a high-scoring pick for any of the players (except, perhaps, Grayson, if you consider the opportunity cost).

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	 0	scheivlak		125.29	 0.00	16	9
2	 0	noikeee			122.71	 0.00	16	7
3	+2	TurnOffTheLights	114.18	 0.00	16	10
4	+2	Grayson			114.12	 0.00	16	18
5	-2	DutchQuicksilver	113.82	-3.65	14	16
6	-2	M2000-5			113.35	-3.65	14	14
7	 0	Kev00			110.29	-3.65	15	12
8	+3	Brawn BGP 001		110.12	 0.00	13	4
9	-1	RaikkonenFan96		110.06	-3.65	15	11
		AVERAGE PICK		109.35	-3.65	15	
10	-1	Costaz			107.41	-3.47	15	15
11	-1	sladealonso		106.59	-3.65	14	3
12	+5	f1paul			104.06	 0.00	13	17
13	-1	SpaceHorseParty		103.35	-3.65	13	1
14	-1	Marklar			103.00	-3.65	13	2
15	-1	markelov74		102.18	-3.65	13	5
16	-1	KWSN - DSM		102.06	-3.65	13	6
17	-1	turk157			102.06	-3.65	13	13
18	 0	Makarias		 98.41	-3.65	12	8

Makarias can no longer score 100 points, and it seems like a few others will soon follow him.

Edited by SpaceHorseParty, 03 September 2018 - 19:27.

[SpaceHorseParty]

Update #10: Norris confirmed at McLaren

 

...and where one story (potentially) ends, another begins. Lando Norris is the first confirmed rookie of 2019. Despite his young age, he was picked by 11 players (more than any other driver who is yet to make his debut – and closely followed by his F2 rival Russell with 8). His success in junior series, as well as McLaren ties, made him a popular pick.

 

Six players (Brawn BGP 001, Costaz, Grayson, noikeee, scheivlak, and TurnOffTheLights) correctly predicted Norris would drive for McLaren, they receive 6.41 points for that prediction. The other five players placed him in Force India, Renault, Sauber, or Williams, and receive 2.41 points.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	 0	Grayson			58.82	+6.41	7	18
2	 0	Costaz			54.65	+6.41	5	15
3	 0	noikeee			53.82	+6.41	5	7
4	 0	scheivlak		53.82	+6.41	5	9
5	 0	TurnOffTheLights	53.82	+6.41	5	10
6	 0	RaikkonenFan96		47.41	 0.00	5	11
7	 0	Kev00			47.41	 0.00	5	12
8	 0	DutchQuicksilver	47.41	 0.00	5	16
		AVERAGE PICK		47.41	 0.00	5	
9	 0	SpaceHorseParty		45.65	+2.41	4	1
10	 0	Marklar			45.65	+2.41	4	2
11	 0	sladealonso		45.65	+2.41	4	3
12	+2	Makarias		45.65	+2.41	4	8
13	+3	f1paul			45.65	+2.41	4	17
14	+4	Brawn BGP 001		44.41	+6.41	3	4
15	-3	markelov74		43.24	 0.00	4	5
16	-3	KWSN - DSM		43.24	 0.00	4	6
17	-2	turk157			43.24	 0.00	4	13
18	-1	M2000-5			42.18	 0.00	4	14

Meanwhile, the potential points keep eroding for most players. A few players, however, still have a sizeable stash of unfired powder.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	 0	scheivlak		125.29	 0.00	16	9
2	 0	noikeee			122.71	 0.00	16	7
3	 0	TurnOffTheLights	114.18	 0.00	16	10
4	 0	Grayson			114.12	 0.00	16	18
5	 0	DutchQuicksilver	111.82	-2.00	14	16
6	 0	M2000-5			111.29	-2.06	14	14
7	+1	Brawn BGP 001		110.12	 0.00	13	4
8	-1	Kev00			108.24	-2.06	15	12
9	 0	RaikkonenFan96		108.00	-2.06	15	11
10	 0	Costaz			107.41	 0.00	15	15
		AVERAGE PICK		107.29	-2.06	15	
11	 0	sladealonso		102.12	-4.47	13	3
12	+3	markelov74		100.18	-2.00	13	5
13	+3	KWSN - DSM		100.06	-2.00	13	6
14	+3	turk157			100.06	-2.00	13	13
15	-3	f1paul			 99.47	-4.59	12	17
16	-3	SpaceHorseParty		 98.88	-4.47	12	1
17	-3	Marklar			 98.41	-4.59	12	2
18	 0	Makarias		 98.41	 0.00	12	8

Edited by SpaceHorseParty, 12 September 2018 - 19:20.

[SpaceHorseParty]

Update #11: Räikkönen confirmed at Sauber

 

In recent years, Ferrari has been criticized by some for being too conservative with regards to their driver choices. Much like Massa years before, Räikkönen has long been thought by some to be too old, too slow, and a waste of a good seat that should have been filled by a younger, flashier driver. Despite that, Ferrari continued to extend his contract year after year, and the only seven players who thought Räikkönen would still be on the grid in 2019 expected him to remain in Ferrari. In a move worthy of silly season's name, Räikkönen will instead move to Sauber – and it's a two year deal.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	 0	Grayson			58.82	 0.00	7	18
2	+3	TurnOffTheLights	56.47	+2.65	6	10
3	-1	Costaz			54.65	 0.00	6	15
4	-1	noikeee			53.82	 0.00	6	7
5	-1	scheivlak		53.82	 0.00	6	9
6	 0	RaikkonenFan96		50.06	+2.65	5	11
7	 0	Kev00			50.06	+2.65	5	12
		AVERAGE PICK		50.06	+2.65	5	
8	+3	sladealonso		48.29	+2.65	4	3
9	-1	DutchQuicksilver	47.41	 0.00	5	16
10	+6	KWSN - DSM		45.88	+2.65	4	6
11	+6	turk157			45.88	+2.65	4	13
12	-3	SpaceHorseParty		45.65	 0.00	4	1
13	-3	Marklar			45.65	 0.00	4	2
14	-2	Makarias		45.65	 0.00	4	8
15	-2	f1paul			45.65	 0.00	4	17
16	+2	M2000-5			44.82	+2.65	4	14
17	-3	Brawn BGP 001		44.41	 0.00	4	4
18	-3	markelov74		43.24	 0.00	4	5

As expected, potential results suffer due to there being one less Sauber seat up for grabs. The two leaders of the potential points race – scheivlak and noikeee – lose out the most.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	 0	scheivlak		120.06	-5.24	15	9
2	 0	noikeee			117.47	-5.24	15	7
3	+1	Grayson			111.47	-2.65	16	18
4	-1	TurnOffTheLights	110.53	-3.65	15	10
5	 0	DutchQuicksilver	109.76	-2.06	14	16
6	+1	Brawn BGP 001		108.06	-2.06	13	4
7	-1	M2000-5			107.65	-3.65	13	14
8	+2	Costaz			105.18	-2.24	15	15
9	-1	Kev00			104.59	-3.65	14	12
10	-1	RaikkonenFan96		104.35	-3.65	14	11
		AVERAGE PICK		103.65	-3.65	14	
11	 0	sladealonso		 98.47	-3.65	12	3
12	+6	Makarias		 98.41	 0.00	12	8
13	-1	markelov74		 98.12	-2.06	13	5
14	+1	f1paul			 97.47	-2.00	12	17
15	+1	SpaceHorseParty		 96.88	-2.00	12	1
16	-3	KWSN - DSM		 96.41	-3.65	12	6
17	-3	turk157			 96.41	-3.65	12	13
18	-1	Marklar			 96.35	-2.06	12	2

[SpaceHorseParty]

Update #12: Leclerc confirmed at Ferrari

 

Of course, Räikkönen's departure from Ferrari would have been a whole lot less likely if it wasn't for Leclerc's impressive performance in his debut season. The Ferrari junior driver was rewarded with a senior team seat in 2019 – and there were six players who got it right. Most others expected him to continue at one of Ferrari's affiliates – either Haas or Sauber.

 

Only Grayson was bold enough not to include him at all in the prediction, and therefore loses the lead in the standings. With Ocon's 2019 prospects not looking that good due to Mercedes running out of seats for their drivers, one wonders if Grayson had the right idea, but picked the wrong team.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	+2	Costaz			61.06	+6.41	7	15
2	+2	noikeee			60.24	+6.41	7	7
3	+2	scheivlak		60.24	+6.41	7	9
4	-3	Grayson			58.82	 0.00	7	18
5	-3	TurnOffTheLights	58.53	+2.06	6	10
6	 0	RaikkonenFan96		52.12	+2.06	5	11
7	 0	Kev00			52.12	+2.06	5	12
8	+4	SpaceHorseParty		52.06	+6.41	5	1
9	+8	Brawn BGP 001		50.82	+6.41	5	4
10	-2	sladealonso		50.35	+2.06	4	3
		AVERAGE PICK		50.06	 0.00	5	
11	+7	markelov74		49.65	+6.41	5	5
12	-3	DutchQuicksilver	49.47	+2.06	5	16
13	-3	KWSN - DSM		47.94	+2.06	4	6
14	-3	turk157			47.94	+2.06	4	13
15	-2	Marklar			47.71	+2.06	4	2
16	-2	Makarias		47.71	+2.06	4	8
17	-2	f1paul			47.71	+2.06	4	17
18	-2	M2000-5			46.88	+2.06	4	14

Marklar and f1paul get severely punished for their Pérez to Ferrari guesses. scheivlak and noikeee renew their lead in the potential points standings. It seems like they could be the favorites to win the game this year – although Costaz has a slight lead in the actual standings for the moment.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	 0	scheivlak		120.06	 0.00	15	9
2	 0	noikeee			117.47	 0.00	15	7
3	+3	Brawn BGP 001		108.06	 0.00	13	4
4	-1	Grayson			106.47	-5.00	15	18
5	-1	TurnOffTheLights	106.06	-4.47	14	10
6	-1	DutchQuicksilver	105.29	-4.47	13	16
7	+1	Costaz			105.18	 0.00	15	15
8	-1	M2000-5			103.18	-4.47	12	14
9	 0	Kev00			100.12	-4.47	13	12
10	 0	RaikkonenFan96		 99.88	-4.47	13	11
		AVERAGE PICK		 98.41	-5.24	13	
11	+2	markelov74		 98.12	 0.00	13	5
12	+3	SpaceHorseParty		 96.88	 0.00	12	1
13	-2	sladealonso		 94.12	-4.35	11	3
14	-2	Makarias		 94.06	-4.35	11	8
15	+1	KWSN - DSM		 92.06	-4.35	11	6
16	+1	turk157			 92.06	-4.35	11	13
17	-3	f1paul			 88.24	-9.24	10	17
18	 0	Marklar			 87.18	-9.18	10	2

Edited by SpaceHorseParty, 12 September 2018 - 20:00.

[noikeee]

This is looking good, but I think Costaz has this. I need de Vries to somehow make it to F1 next year. 

[SpaceHorseParty]

Update #13: Giovinazzi confirmed at Sauber

 

This was somewhat of a surprise, as it means Marcus Ericsson will be pushed aside after four seasons at Sauber, a team that for most of that time has reportedly been owned by Ericsson's backers. Giovinazzi does not, however, replace Ericsson – he is actually replacing the Ferrari-bound Leclerc, as one of the team's seats is effectively controlled by Ferrari as a part of the Alfa Romeo cooperation agreement.

 

Nevertheless, Giovinazzi's promotion to Sauber was foreseen by many of the players, and there is no change at the top of the standings.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	 0	Costaz			66.88	+5.82	8	15
2	 0	noikeee			66.06	+5.82	8	7
3	 0	scheivlak		66.06	+5.82	8	9
4	 0	Grayson			64.65	+5.82	8	18
5	 0	TurnOffTheLights	64.35	+5.82	7	10
		AVERAGE PICK		55.88	+5.82	6	
6	+6	DutchQuicksilver	55.29	+5.82	6	16
7	+1	SpaceHorseParty		54.29	+2.24	5	1
8	+5	KWSN - DSM		53.76	+5.82	5	6
9	+5	turk157			53.76	+5.82	5	13
10	+5	Marklar			53.53	+5.82	5	2
11	+5	Makarias		53.53	+5.82	5	8
12	+5	f1paul			53.53	+5.82	5	17
13	-4	Brawn BGP 001		53.06	+2.24	5	4
14	-8	RaikkonenFan96		52.12	 0.00	5	11
15	-8	Kev00			52.12	 0.00	5	12
16	-6	sladealonso		50.35	 0.00	4	3
17	-6	markelov74		49.65	 0.00	5	5
18	 0	M2000-5			49.12	+2.24	4	14

We do see huge changes for some in the potential standings, as some risky picks for Sauber (e.g. J Eriksson/Armstrong by Brawn BGP 001 and M Ericsson/Kubica by markelov74) have lost any chance of coming true now. scheivlak and noikeee remain on top, despite a minor setback. Both of them predicted Giovinazzi would join Sauber, but their other pick would have scored them even more points (Rosenqvist for scheivlak, Ericsson for noikeee).

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	 0	scheivlak		118.41	- 1.65	15	9
2	 0	noikeee			116.41	- 1.06	15	7
3	+1	Grayson			106.47	  0.00	15	18
4	+1	TurnOffTheLights	106.06	  0.00	14	10
5	+1	DutchQuicksilver	105.29	  0.00	13	16
6	+1	Costaz			102.41	- 2.76	14	15
		AVERAGE PICK		 97.35	- 1.06	13	
7	+1	M2000-5			 95.71	- 7.47	10	14
8	+1	Kev00			 93.82	- 6.29	12	12
9	+1	RaikkonenFan96		 93.59	- 6.29	12	11
10	-7	Brawn BGP 001		 91.59	-16.47	10	4
11	+3	Makarias		 90.12	- 3.94	10	8
12	 0	SpaceHorseParty		 88.41	- 8.47	10	1
13	 0	sladealonso		 88.41	- 5.71	10	3
14	-3	markelov74		 87.47	-10.65	11	5
15	 0	KWSN - DSM		 87.41	- 4.65	10	6
16	 0	turk157			 87.41	- 4.65	10	13
17	 0	f1paul			 84.59	- 3.65	9	17
18	 0	Marklar			 83.53	- 3.65	9	2

[SpaceHorseParty]

Update #14: Grosjean and Magnussen confirmed at Haas

 

A double update here as Haas decided to announce both of their drivers at the same time. In a silly season truly living up to its name, Haas is only the second team to retain their 2018 lineup (the other being Mercedes). With Stroll likely to leave for The Team Formerly Known as Force India, it's likely no other team will join them.

 

With two confirmations at once (even if they're not exactly shocking), there are some major changes in both sets of standings. Only five drivers expected both Grosjean and Magnussen to stay at Haas – and they are rewarded with 11.65 points for that. One of them – TurnOffTheLights – jumps from fifth place to first! The average pick is also looking better every day, suggesting the crowd might be wise after all.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	+4	TurnOffTheLights	76.00	+11.65	9	10
2	-1	Costaz			74.71	+ 7.82	9	15
3	-1	noikeee			73.88	+ 7.82	9	7
4	 0	Grayson			70.71	+ 6.06	9	18
		AVERAGE PICK		67.53	+11.65	8
5	+1	DutchQuicksilver	66.94	+11.65	8	16
6	-3	scheivlak		66.06	  0.00	8	9
7	+7	RaikkonenFan96		63.76	+11.65	7	11
8	+7	Kev00			63.76	+11.65	7	12
9	-1	KWSN - DSM		61.59	+ 7.82	6	6
10	-1	turk157			61.59	+ 7.82	6	13
11	-1	Marklar			61.35	+ 7.82	6	2
12	+5	markelov74		61.29	+11.65	7	5
13	-6	SpaceHorseParty		59.88	+ 5.59	6	1
14	-3	Makarias		59.59	+ 6.06	6	8
15	-2	Brawn BGP 001		59.12	+ 6.06	6	4
16	-4	f1paul			59.12	+ 5.59	6	17
17	-1	sladealonso		55.94	+ 5.59	5	3
18	 0	M2000-5			55.18	+ 6.06	5	14

scheivlak takes an absolute beating in both sets of standings, having picked a Vandoorne/Pagenaud lineup and expecting Grosjean and Magnussen to leave F1. It's not over for him yet, but this might turn out to be the key choice that prevented his victory. Most players can no longer reach 100 points, and we are approaching the point where some players no longer have the chance to win this game (unless, of course, some reserve drivers appear on the grid in Australia – and it has happened multiple times in the last few years).

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	+1	noikeee			107.41	- 9.00	13	7
2	+2	TurnOffTheLights	106.06	  0.00	14	10
3	+2	DutchQuicksilver	105.29	  0.00	13	16
4	-1	Grayson			 99.47	- 7.00	14	18
5	+1	Costaz			 99.47	- 2.94	13	15
6	-5	scheivlak		 98.29	-20.12	12	9
		AVERAGE PICK		 97.35	  0.00	13	
7	+1	Kev00			 93.82	  0.00	12	12
8	-1	M2000-5			 93.65	- 2.06	10	14
9	 0	RaikkonenFan96		 93.59	  0.00	12	11
10	 0	Brawn BGP 001		 88.65	- 2.94	10	4
11	 0	Makarias		 88.06	- 2.06	10	8
12	+2	markelov74		 87.47	  0.00	11	5
13	+2	KWSN - DSM		 87.41	  0.00	10	6
14	+2	turk157			 87.41	  0.00	10	13
15	-3	SpaceHorseParty		 86.35	- 2.06	10	1
16	-3	sladealonso		 85.76	- 2.65	10	3
17	+1	Marklar			 83.53	  0.00	9	2
18	-1	f1paul			 82.59	- 2.00	9	17

[SpaceHorseParty]

Update #15: Kvyat confirmed at Toro Rosso

 

In perhaps the silliest move yet, Daniil Kvyat will return to Toro Rosso, having spent this year as Ferrari's simulator driver. His quick rise to Red Bull and an equally quick fall from grace led some to label him as a fast driver who needs to get his head in order. However, with so many drivers available, most of us didn't expect any of the teams to take a chance on him – especially not Toro Rosso, after he was unceremoniously dumped a few races before the end of 2017.

 

Dutchquicksilver was the only player to pick Kvyat at all, and he expected him to join Williams. He therefore gets 6 points for that – 2 points for putting him in the wrong team + 1 point since nobody else picked him, multiplied by 2 as this was a unique pick. TurnOffTheLights and Costaz will be pissed off, as they expected Toro Rosso to pick an unknown driver (but they may still cash in on that if someone like Albon gets the other seat).

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	 0	TurnOffTheLights	76.00	 0.00	9	10
2	 0	Costaz			74.71	 0.00	9	15
3	 0	noikeee			73.88	 0.00	9	7
4	+1	DutchQuicksilver	72.94	+6.00	8	16
5	-1	Grayson			70.71	 0.00	9	18
		AVERAGE PICK		67.53	 0.00	8	
6	 0	scheivlak		66.06	 0.00	8	9
7	 0	RaikkonenFan96		63.76	 0.00	7	11
8	 0	Kev00			63.76	 0.00	7	12
9	 0	KWSN - DSM		61.59	 0.00	6	6
10	 0	turk157			61.59	 0.00	6	13
11	 0	Marklar			61.35	 0.00	6	2
12	 0	markelov74		61.29	 0.00	7	5
13	 0	SpaceHorseParty		59.88	 0.00	6	1
14	 0	Makarias		59.59	 0.00	6	8
15	 0	Brawn BGP 001		59.12	 0.00	6	4
16	 0	f1paul			59.12	 0.00	6	17
17	 0	sladealonso		55.94	 0.00	5	3
18	 0	M2000-5			55.18	 0.00	5	14

Nevertheless, Dutchquicksilver loses out in the potential standings, as a Williams contract for Kvyat would have been worth 14 points for him. Others lose out as well, as one of the Toro Rosso seats becomes unavailable.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	 0	noikeee			104.76	-2.65	13	7
2	 0	TurnOffTheLights	101.06	-5.00	13	10
3	+2	Costaz			 97.41	-2.06	13	15
4	-1	DutchQuicksilver	 97.29	-8.00	12	16
5	-1	Grayson			 94.47	-5.00	13	18
6	 0	scheivlak		 92.35	-5.94	11	9
		AVERAGE PICK		 92.12	-5.24	12	
7	 0	Kev00			 88.59	-5.24	11	12
8	 0	M2000-5			 88.41	-5.24	9	14
9	 0	RaikkonenFan96		 88.35	-5.24	11	11
10	+3	KWSN - DSM		 85.35	-2.06	10	6
11	+3	turk157			 85.35	-2.06	10	13
12	-1	Makarias		 85.12	-2.94	10	8
13	-1	markelov74		 84.82	-2.65	11	5
14	-4	Brawn BGP 001		 83.41	-5.24	9	4
15	 0	SpaceHorseParty		 83.41	-2.94	10	1
16	+1	Marklar			 81.47	-2.06	9	2
17	-1	sladealonso		 80.53	-5.24	9	3
18	 0	f1paul			 80.53	-2.06	9	17

[SpaceHorseParty]

Update #16: Sirotkin not confirmed at Williams

 

This reverses update #1. Although it was reported Sirotkin had a multi-year deal, it is now clear that that is not the case and Williams are considering other options. Although there is still a chance Sirotkin might continue driving for the team next year, it is far from a certainty at this point. The only two players who benefitted from Sirotkin's deal were Costaz and Grayson – so they lose points now.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	 0	TurnOffTheLights	76.00	 0.00	9	10
2	+1	noikeee			73.88	 0.00	9	7
3	+1	DutchQuicksilver	72.94	 0.00	8	16
4	-2	Costaz			69.71	-5.00	8	15
		AVERAGE PICK		67.53	 0.00	8
5	+1	scheivlak		66.06	 0.00	8	9
6	-1	Grayson			65.71	-5.00	8	18
7	 0	RaikkonenFan96		63.76	 0.00	7	11
8	 0	Kev00			63.76	 0.00	7	12
9	 0	KWSN - DSM		61.59	 0.00	6	6
10	 0	turk157			61.59	 0.00	6	13
11	 0	Marklar			61.35	 0.00	6	2
12	 0	markelov74		61.29	 0.00	7	5
13	 0	SpaceHorseParty		59.88	 0.00	6	1
14	 0	Makarias		59.59	 0.00	6	8
15	 0	Brawn BGP 001		59.12	 0.00	6	4
16	 0	f1paul			59.12	 0.00	6	17
17	 0	sladealonso		55.94	 0.00	5	3
18	 0	M2000-5			55.18	 0.00	5	14

Most players, of course, benefit – there is one more seat at Williams available now, after all.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	 0	noikeee			107.41	+2.65	13	7
2	 0	TurnOffTheLights	106.06	+5.00	14	10
3	+1	DutchQuicksilver	 99.35	+2.06	12	16
4	+2	scheivlak		 98.29	+5.94	12	9
		AVERAGE PICK		 97.35	+5.24	13	
5	 0	Grayson			 94.47	 0.00	13	18
6	-3	Costaz			 94.47	-2.94	12	15
7	 0	Kev00			 93.82	+5.24	12	12
8	 0	M2000-5			 93.65	+5.24	10	14
9	 0	RaikkonenFan96		 93.59	+5.24	12	11
10	+4	Brawn BGP 001		 88.65	+5.24	10	4
11	+1	Makarias		 88.06	+2.94	10	8
12	+1	markelov74		 87.47	+2.65	11	5
13	-3	KWSN - DSM		 87.41	+2.06	10	6
14	-3	turk157			 87.41	+2.06	10	13
15	 0	SpaceHorseParty		 86.35	+2.94	10	1
16	+1	sladealonso		 85.76	+5.24	10	3
17	-1	Marklar			 83.53	+2.06	9	2
18	 0	f1paul			 82.59	+2.06	9	17

Edited by SpaceHorseParty, 21 October 2018 - 07:30.

[SpaceHorseParty]

Update #17: Russell confirmed at Williams

 

This seems to be a good year for Formula 2 drivers – Lando Norris was already confirmed at McLaren a few weeks ago, and now George Russell, who will almost certainly win the F2 title this year, has been confirmed at Williams. With Alex Albon seemingly in line for a Toro Rosso seat, we might be looking at the first time in many years when the top 3 from F1's main feeder series have graduated to F1.

 

Although a few drivers expected Russell to do well in F2 and graduate to F1, only Makarias predicted he would join Williams – and he receives a nice haul of seven points for that, which moves him up from 14th place to 6th.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	 0	TurnOffTheLights	 76.00	 0.00	9	10
2	+1	DutchQuicksilver	 75.53	+2.59	8	16
3	-1	noikeee			 73.88	 0.00	9	7
4	 0	Costaz			 69.71	 0.00	8	15
5	+1	Grayson			 68.29	+2.59	8	18
		AVERAGE PICK		 67.53	 0.00	8	
6	+8	Makarias		 66.59	+7.00	7	8
7	-2	scheivlak		 66.06	 0.00	8	9
8	+1	KWSN - DSM		 64.18	+2.59	6	6
9	+1	turk157			 64.18	+2.59	6	13
10	+2	markelov74		 63.88	+2.59	7	5
11	-4	RaikkonenFan96		 63.76	 0.00	7	11
12	-4	Kev00			 63.76	 0.00	7	12
13	 0	SpaceHorseParty		 62.47	+2.59	6	1
14	+1	Brawn BGP 001		 61.71	+2.59	6	4
15	-4	Marklar			 61.35	 0.00	6	2
16	 0	f1paul			 59.12	 0.00	6	17
17	 0	sladealonso		 55.94	 0.00	5	3
18	 0	M2000-5			 55.18	 0.00	5	14

Still plenty of points theoretically available.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	 0	noikeee			104.76	-2.65	13	7
2	 0	TurnOffTheLights	101.06	-5.00	13	10
3	 0	DutchQuicksilver	 95.65	-3.71	11	16
4	+2	Costaz			 92.41	-2.06	12	15
5	-1	scheivlak		 92.35	-5.94	11	9
		AVERAGE PICK		 92.12	-5.24	12	
6	-1	Grayson			 90.76	-3.71	12	18
7	 0	Kev00			 88.59	-5.24	11	12
8	 0	M2000-5			 88.41	-5.24	9	14
9	 0	RaikkonenFan96		 88.35	-5.24	11	11
10	+1	Makarias		 88.06	 0.00	10	8
11	-1	Brawn BGP 001		 84.94	-3.71	9	4
12	 0	markelov74		 83.76	-3.71	10	5
13	 0	KWSN - DSM		 83.71	-3.71	9	6
14	 0	turk157			 83.71	-3.71	9	13
15	 0	SpaceHorseParty		 82.65	-3.71	9	1
16	+1	Marklar			 81.47	-2.06	9	2
17	-1	sladealonso		 80.53	-5.24	9	3
18	 0	f1paul			 80.53	-2.06	9	17

[SpaceHorseParty]

Update #18: Pérez confirmed at Force India

 

Everyone expected Pérez to continue driving, but there was some disagreement over where he would end up. Most players expected him to remain in Force India. TurnOffTheLights and DutchQuicksilver – who before this were leading in the standings – expected him to move on (to Williams and Renault, respectively), thus forfeiting the lead to noikeee. noikeee has also become the first player to score 10 exact guesses. With noikeee also leading the potential standings, he seems to be in a very good position with just three open seats left.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	+2	noikeee			 79.59	+5.71	10	7
2	-1	TurnOffTheLights	 78.00	+2.00	 9	10
3	-1	DutchQuicksilver	 77.53	+2.00	 8	16
4	 0	Costaz			 75.41	+5.71	 9	15
		AVERAGE PICK		 73.24	+5.71	 9	
5	+1	Makarias		 72.29	+5.71	 8	8
6	-1	Grayson			 70.29	+2.00	 8	18
7	+1	KWSN - DSM		 69.88	+5.71	 7	6
8	+1	turk157			 69.88	+5.71	 7	13
9	+1	markelov74		 69.59	+5.71	 8	5
10	+1	RaikkonenFan96		 69.47	+5.71	 8	11
11	+1	Kev00			 69.47	+5.71	 8	12
12	+1	SpaceHorseParty		 68.18	+5.71	 7	1
13	-6	scheivlak		 68.06	+2.00	 8	9
14	 0	Brawn BGP 001		 67.41	+5.71	 7	4
15	 0	Marklar			 63.35	+2.00	 6	2
16	+1	sladealonso		 61.65	+5.71	 6	3
17	-1	f1paul			 61.12	+2.00	 6	17
18	 0	M2000-5			 60.88	+5.71	 6	14

Although noikeee's actual points haul has not yet beaten anyone's potential points, some of the players can no longer beat him (unless some contracts or broken or reserve drivers are needed in the first race), as noikeee would also score some points in what would be the best case scenario for those players.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	 0	noikeee			104.76	 0.00	13	7
2	 0	TurnOffTheLights	 96.18	-4.88	12	10
3	 0	DutchQuicksilver	 95.59	-0.06	11	16
4	 0	Costaz			 92.41	 0.00	12	15
		AVERAGE PICK		 92.12	 0.00	12	
5	+2	Kev00			 88.59	 0.00	11	12
6	+2	M2000-5			 88.41	 0.00	 9	14
7	+2	RaikkonenFan96		 88.35	 0.00	11	11
8	+2	Makarias		 88.06	 0.00	10	8
9	-3	Grayson			 87.76	-3.00	11	18
10	-5	scheivlak		 87.47	-4.88	10	9
11	 0	Brawn BGP 001		 84.94	 0.00	 9	4
12	 0	markelov74		 83.76	 0.00	10	5
13	 0	KWSN - DSM		 83.71	 0.00	 9	6
14	 0	turk157			 83.71	 0.00	 9	13
15	 0	SpaceHorseParty		 82.65	 0.00	 9	1
16	 0	Marklar			 80.82	-0.65	 9	2
17	 0	sladealonso		 80.53	 0.00	 9	3
18	 0	f1paul			 79.88	-0.65	 9	17

[SpaceHorseParty]

Regarding the three open seats: these are at Force India, Williams, and Toro Rosso.

• Nobody picked Stroll for Force India, but everyone (bar Costaz and Makarias) placed him at Williams.
• Nobody picked Albon at all. Costaz and TurnOffTheLights picked one unknown driver at Toro Rosso.
• Costaz was the only player to place Ocon at Williams (but everyone placed him somewhere).
• sladealonso, RaikkonenFan96, Kev00, and M2000-5 placed Kubica at Williams (markelov74, f1paul, and Grayson placed him somewhere else).
• Costaz and Grayson would, of course, benefit from Sirotkin getting the seat.

[SpaceHorseParty]

Update #19: Kubica confirmed at Williams

 

It was a long wait, but many fans are overjoyed at the return of Robert Kubica – he will drive for Williams in 2019. One year ago, he was in contention for the same seat for 2018, and seemed to be the frontrunner at the time of the submission deadline. Despite that, only seven players expected him to be in Formula One in 2019 (and nobody expected the other candidate, Sirotkin, to be on the grid next year). While it seemed like a lost cause at times, what seemed impossible became plausible and then became reality.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
		AVERAGE PICK		 79.88	+6.65	10	
1	 0	noikeee			 79.59	 0.00	10	7
2	 0	TurnOffTheLights	 78.00	 0.00	9	10
3	 0	DutchQuicksilver	 77.53	 0.00	8	16
4	+6	RaikkonenFan96		 76.12	+6.65	9	11
5	+6	Kev00			 76.12	+6.65	9	12
6	-2	Costaz			 75.41	 0.00	9	15
7	-1	Grayson			 72.94	+2.65	8	18
8	-3	Makarias		 72.29	 0.00	8	8
9	 0	markelov74		 72.24	+2.65	8	5
10	-3	KWSN - DSM		 69.88	 0.00	7	6
11	-3	turk157			 69.88	 0.00	7	13
12	+4	sladealonso		 68.29	+6.65	7	3
13	-1	SpaceHorseParty		 68.18	 0.00	7	1
14	-1	scheivlak		 68.06	 0.00	8	9
15	+3	M2000-5			 67.53	+6.65	7	14
16	-2	Brawn BGP 001		 67.41	 0.00	7	4
17	 0	f1paul			 63.76	+2.65	6	17
18	-3	Marklar			 63.35	 0.00	6	2

The average pick is better than any of our individual picks, suggesting that, as a group, we are pretty clever. With two seats to go, six players are within five points of the lead.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	 0	noikeee			 99.53	-5.24	12	7
		AVERAGE PICK		 92.12	 0.00	12	
2	 0	TurnOffTheLights	 90.94	-5.24	11	10
3	 0	DutchQuicksilver	 90.35	-5.24	10	16
4	+1	Kev00			 88.59	 0.00	11	12
5	+1	M2000-5			 88.41	 0.00	9	14
6	+1	RaikkonenFan96		 88.35	 0.00	11	11
7	+2	Grayson			 85.18	-2.59	10	18
8	 0	Makarias		 85.12	-2.94	10	8
9	-5	Costaz			 82.47	-9.94	10	15
10	 0	scheivlak		 81.47	-6.00	10	9
11	+1	markelov74		 81.18	-2.59	9	5
12	+5	sladealonso		 80.53	 0.00	9	3
13	-2	Brawn BGP 001		 79.71	-5.24	8	4
14	-1	KWSN - DSM		 78.53	-5.18	8	6
15	-1	turk157			 78.53	-5.18	8	13
16	-1	SpaceHorseParty		 77.41	-5.24	8	1
17	-1	Marklar			 75.59	-5.24	8	2
18	 0	f1paul			 72.94	-6.94	7	17

Potential standings get ever closer to the real ones, but with all seats (essentially) decided there's not much sense in looking at them anymore.

[SpaceHorseParty]

Update #20: Albon confirmed at Toro Rosso

 

For the second year in a row, Red Bull have decided to bring their prodigal son into the stable. Despite good results in GP3 (second only to Leclerc in his rookie season) and a decent, if unspectacular, first season in F2, Albon's success was unexpected, and nobody thought he would be the answer to Red Bull's young driver woes.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	+1	TurnOffTheLights	 83.00	+5.00	10	10
2	+4	Costaz			 80.41	+5.00	10	15
		AVERAGE PICK		 79.88	 0.00	10	
3	-2	noikeee			 79.59	 0.00	10	7
4	-1	DutchQuicksilver	 77.53	 0.00	8	16
5	-1	RaikkonenFan96		 76.12	 0.00	9	11
6	-1	Kev00			 76.12	 0.00	9	12
7	 0	Grayson			 72.94	 0.00	8	18
8	 0	Makarias		 72.29	 0.00	8	8
9	 0	markelov74		 72.24	 0.00	8	5
10	 0	KWSN - DSM		 69.88	 0.00	7	6
11	 0	turk157			 69.88	 0.00	7	13
12	 0	sladealonso		 68.29	 0.00	7	3
13	 0	SpaceHorseParty		 68.18	 0.00	7	1
14	 0	scheivlak		 68.06	 0.00	8	9
15	 0	M2000-5			 67.53	 0.00	7	14
16	 0	Brawn BGP 001		 67.41	 0.00	7	4
17	 0	f1paul			 63.76	 0.00	6	17
18	 0	Marklar			 63.35	 0.00	6	2

Despite that, Costaz and TurnOffTheLights were savvy enough to predict Toro Rosso would make an unorthodox choice – and they get five points for that call. They move into second and first place, respectively, with just Stroll one seat up for grabs.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	+1	TurnOffTheLights	 90.00	- 0.94	11	10
		AVERAGE PICK		 85.82	- 6.29	11	
2	-1	noikeee			 85.59	-13.94	10	7
3	 0	DutchQuicksilver	 83.47	- 6.88	9	16
4	+5	Costaz			 82.47	  0.00	10	15
5	+1	RaikkonenFan96		 82.06	- 6.29	10	11
6	-2	Kev00			 82.06	- 6.53	10	12
7	 0	Grayson			 78.88	- 6.29	9	18
8	 0	Makarias		 78.24	- 6.88	9	8
9	+1	scheivlak		 74.94	- 6.53	9	9
10	+1	markelov74		 74.88	- 6.29	8	5
11	-6	M2000-5			 74.41	-14.00	8	14
12	 0	sladealonso		 74.24	- 6.29	8	3
13	 0	Brawn BGP 001		 73.41	- 6.29	7	4
14	 0	KWSN - DSM		 72.65	- 5.88	7	6
15	 0	turk157			 72.65	- 5.88	7	13
16	 0	SpaceHorseParty		 71.12	- 6.29	7	1
17	 0	Marklar			 69.29	- 6.29	7	2
18	 0	f1paul			 66.53	- 6.41	6	17

noikeee and M2000-5's large losses stem from their unique picks of Nyck de Vries and Niko Kari.

[SpaceHorseParty]

I would like to add that even after Stroll is confirmed, the results will remain provisional until the first race of 2019 is held. Players can lose points due to drivers/teams permanently calling off their participation (e.g. Razia in 2013, USF1 in 2010, Nannini in 1991) or gain points because a driver replaces another one on what is called a temporary basis at that point (e.g. Magnussen in 2015, Heidfeld in 2011).

[noikeee]

Looks like Alex Albon cost me the trophy! Well played by TurnOff and Costaz!

[SpaceHorseParty]

Update #21: Stroll confirmed at Racing Point

 

It seems that we ran out of surprises this silly season, and the last announcement of the season could have just as easily been made three months ago. The final race seat is taken by Lance Stroll. Although his destination was unexpected this time last year, most agreed he would be on the grid.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	 0	TurnOffTheLights	85.12	+2.12	10	10
		AVERAGE PICK		82.00	+2.12	10	
2	+1	noikeee			81.71	+2.12	10	7
3	-1	Costaz			80.41	 0.00	10	15
4	 0	DutchQuicksilver	79.65	+2.12	8	16
5	 0	RaikkonenFan96		78.24	+2.12	9	11
6	 0	Kev00			78.24	+2.12	9	12
7	 0	Grayson			75.06	+2.12	8	18
8	+1	markelov74		74.35	+2.12	8	5
9	-1	Makarias		72.29	 0.00	8	8
10	 0	KWSN - DSM		72.00	+2.12	7	6
11	 0	turk157			72.00	+2.12	7	13
12	 0	sladealonso		70.41	+2.12	7	3
13	 0	SpaceHorseParty		70.29	+2.12	7	1
14	 0	scheivlak		70.18	+2.12	8	9
15	 0	M2000-5			69.65	+2.12	7	14
16	 0	Brawn BGP 001		69.53	+2.12	7	4
17	 0	f1paul			65.88	+2.12	6	17
18	 0	Marklar			65.47	+2.12	6	2

TurnOffTheLights has started the final lap of the season in the lead and in position to secure the title. He seems to have an excellent chance of holding on to it, but with more than three months to go until the first race of 2019, I wouldn't celebrate just yet.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
1	 0	TurnOffTheLights	85.12	-4.88	10	10
		AVERAGE PICK		82.00	-3.82	10	
2	 0	noikeee			81.71	-3.88	10	7
3	+1	Costaz			80.41	-2.06	10	15
4	-1	DutchQuicksilver	79.65	-3.82	8	16
5	 0	RaikkonenFan96		78.24	-3.82	9	11
6	 0	Kev00			78.24	-3.82	9	12
7	 0	Grayson			75.06	-3.82	8	18
8	+2	markelov74		74.35	-0.53	8	5
9	-1	Makarias		72.29	-5.94	8	8
10	+4	KWSN - DSM		72.00	-0.65	7	6
11	+4	turk157			72.00	-0.65	7	13
12	 0	sladealonso		70.41	-3.82	7	3
13	+3	SpaceHorseParty		70.29	-0.82	7	1
14	-5	scheivlak		70.18	-4.76	8	9
15	-4	M2000-5			69.65	-4.76	7	14
16	-3	Brawn BGP 001		69.53	-3.88	7	4
17	+1	f1paul			65.88	-0.65	6	17
18	-1	Marklar			65.47	-3.82	6	2

The potential standings, of course, show the same results as the actual ones. It might be interesting to see how the official reserve drivers (e.g. Ericsson and Ocon) would affect the results, should they replace someone in Australia – but that can wait a few weeks.