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2018 Silly Season Trophy results

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#1 SpaceHorseParty

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Posted 25 March 2018 - 07:05

One year and four months ago, fourteen members of this forum gave their best shot at predicting the drivers who would line up on the grid today, the first race of the 2018 Formula One season. 
Of these 14 participants, Marklar was the best. He matched 16 of this season's 20 drivers to their current teams, and also included Valtteri Bottas in his 2018 lineup (albeit at the wrong team – the deadline for entries at this game ended shortly before Rosberg's retirement announcement).
2003: Brian O Flaherty
2004: Flying Panda
2005: lukywill, Viceroy, Makarias
2017: ANF
2018: Marklar
Below is the list of full results, including the average pick as mentioned in the original thread. Just like a year ago, the average pick was better than all except two players. This can be explained by some of the moves being strongly rumored (such as Sainz to Renault), many unchanged lineups (such as Ferrari, Red Bull and Force India), and players tending to predict a few unlikely moves in the hopes of a big points payout.

Rank	Player			Points	Exact
1	Marklar			100.77	16
2	Kev00			 99.31	15
	AVERAGE PICK		 96.54	15
3	scheivlak		 91.69	13
4	DutchQuicksilver	 90.77	14
5	TurnOffTheLights	 88.38	11
6	Anderis			 86.69	10
7	SpaceHorseParty		 86.54	13
8	Starchild		 85.00	12
9	AJFIN			 84.62	12
10	markelov74		 84.54	12
11	Makarias		 80.92	11
12	noikeee			 78.31	11
13	Costaz			 73.54	10
14	HeidfeldsBeard		 71.54	9

Marklar was the only player to score over 100 points, with Kev00 losing out by slighly more than a point. Their guesses were similar in many respects, but there were two key differences:

  1. Marklar placed Grosjean in Haas, scoring 6.69 points for that choice. Kev00 picked Leclerc for that seat, thus scoring 2.46 points (as he still lines up for Sauber). Marklar did not place Leclerc in any team, ditto Kev00 with Grosjean.
  2. Kev00 scored 2.77 points for being one of the few players placing Sirotkin at Manor. Marklar did not place Sirotkin in any team.

When the entries were submitted for this game in November of 2016, Manor was still participating in races. The fact that they did not make it to 2017 was somewhat of a surprise, as shown by the fact most players expected them to make the grid in 2018. Only two players – TurnOffTheLights and Anderis – predicted that, and were rewarded with five extra points for that guess, which helped them into 5th and 6th place in the standings, ahead of players who had more exact picks.
19 of the 20 drivers racing today were picked by at least a few of the players (Sirotkin and Räikkönen were the most unpopular of those drivers, with 4 and 6 players picking them, respectively). The only driver who was a complete surprise was, of course, Brendon Hartley. The drying talent pool of the Red Bull Junior Team was noticed by most players. Few expected Sainz or Kvyat to continue at the team. Many of them expected Lando Norris to be given a seat at Toro Rosso, although that became much more unlikely once he became affiliated with McLaren.
Two players – TurnOffTheLights and Anderis (once again!) – made a bold choice in picking two unknown drivers for the team. They were the only two players not to pick Pierre Gasly for one of the seats, which translates into a loss of roughly five more points for each of them, but they did get five points each as Hartley was not explicitly named by any of the players. It seems like their strategy was to bet on Toro Rosso being sold, but it didn't work out that badly for either of them.
Here are some statistics on each driver on the 2018 grid:

Name			Team		Total	In team	Most popular team
Valtteri Bottas		Mercedes	14	 0	Williams (12)
Marcus Ericsson		Sauber		14	14	Sauber (14)
Lewis Hamilton		Mercedes	14	 9	Mercedes (9)
Nico Hülkenberg		Renault		14	14	Renault (14)
Esteban Ocon		Force India	14	11	Force India (11)
Sergio Pérez		Force India	14	 9	Force India (9)
Daniel Ricciardo	Red Bull	14	12	Red Bull (12)
Lance Stroll		Williams	14	13	Williams (13)
Stoffel Vandoorne	McLaren		14	14	McLaren (14)
Max Verstappen		Red Bull	14	13	Red Bull (13)
Sebastian Vettel	Ferrari		14	 8	Ferrari (8)
Kevin Magnussen		Haas		13	13	Haas (13)
Carlos Sainz		Renault		13	 5	Renault (5)
Fernando Alonso		McLaren		12	11	McLaren (11)
Pierre Gasly		Toro Rosso	12	12	Toro Rosso (12)
Romain Grosjean		Haas		10	 3	Renault (4)
Charles Leclerc		Sauber		 8	 2	Haas (6)
Kimi Räikkönen		Ferrari		 6	 6	Ferrari (6)
Sergey Sirotkin		Williams	 4	 0	Manor (2)
Brendon Hartley		Toro Rosso	 0	 0	N/A

As for the most popular driver who does not appear on this year's grid?

Nico Rosberg's non-appearance on the 2018 grid was correctly predicted only by scheivlak. It helped him to a 3rd place in the standings – it might not have won him the trophy, but it was definitely very memorable.
Besides Rosberg, two more drivers were expected to be on the grid by more than half of the contestants: Lando Norris (who will surely drive in Formula One, but not yet in 2018) and Pascal Wehrlein (who has driven in Formula One, but no longer in 2018).
That is it for the 2018 Silly Season Trophy. Stay tuned for the interim results of the 2019 Silly Season Trophy – these get updated every time a 2019 deal gets announced, so it might heat up sometime in late summer. If this seems like an interesting game and you would like to participate, you will have to wait a few months until the 2020 Silly Season Trophy – I hope to see you then! And, once again, congratulations to Marklar!

Edited by SpaceHorseParty, 25 March 2018 - 14:08.


#2 Kev00

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Posted 25 March 2018 - 10:14

Bummer! I really fancied my chances in this. Congrats Marklar!


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Posted 25 March 2018 - 14:58

Congrats Marklar... primed to usurp in the 2019 game.



#4 Marklar

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Posted 03 April 2018 - 07:49

I'm shooked that scheivlak didnt won with his Rosberg move : o

Thanks for hosting the game SpaceHorseParty! :D

Edited by Marklar, 03 April 2018 - 07:49.

#5 scheivlak

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Posted 03 April 2018 - 07:53

Congrats Marklar!