112 replies to this topic

[tyker]

Once again I bring forward my qualifying averages for those of you that are interested in this kind of thing, my methodology is too use the fastest lap a driver achieves whether that be in Q1, Q2 or Q3, a driver may well out qualify his teammate but end up having achieved a slower lap so his teammate gets the benefit towards the average lap.

 

Laps are only used where drivers competed in the same qualifying sessions and only dry laps are used because wet laps are run in inconsistent conditions were much larger gaps in teammates are often seen and often an element of luck might be present as well.

 

It has to be seen that a driver has had a fair chance to set a competitive lap, free of mechanical issues, yellow flags etc, also a driver may simply not have set a competitive lap after running off the track or it could be a combination of all 3 things. Another thing I have to be sure of is that drivers are driving to their maximum ability and not just coasting through the qualifying sessions like we tend to see with the top teams until they reach Q3.

 

2018 (After 3 races)

 

01. Alonso 0.27s

02. Verstappen 0.212s

03. Magnussen 0.209s

04. Perez 0.159s

05. Hulkenberg 0.156s

06. Gasly 0.09s

07. Vettel 0.074s

08. Bottas 0.073s

09. Stroll 0.05s

10. Leclerc 0.01s

Edited by tyker, 14 April 2018 - 09:40.

[StanByk]

Thanks for this!

 

Most of these differences seem quite small to me. How does this compare to other years?

 

[Kev00]

It’s strange because the gaps between driver pairings have actually been quite big in a lot of sessions. Hartley should be ahead of Gasly though?

[tyker]

It’s strange because the gaps between driver pairings have actually been quite big in a lot of sessions. Hartley should be ahead of Gasly though?

I've taken Australia were Hartley was 7 tenths quicker as an outlier, on Gasly's last lap he ran completely off the track, the gap didn't seem to be representative of what we normally see between the two of them, I have to see if Hartley can repeat this sort of gap to Gasly.

 

Edit: Just checked which I should have done before really, on their first runs they both put in 2 timed laps were Gasly was just over a tenth quicker, they then went out later when the track had gripped up more, Hartley went 9 tenths quicker whilst Gasly ran off the track.

Edited by tyker, 14 April 2018 - 12:51.

[tyker]

Thanks for this!

 

Most of these differences seem quite small to me. How does this compare to other years?

Similar to last year apart from Hulk/Palmer and Massa/Stroll, Palmer got sacked for lack of performance which you can say was fair enough while Stroll was a rookie so should be given fair chance although I guess his staying in F1 doesn't rely on his performance as such?

[tyker]

After Baku (Baku Difference)

 

01. Alonso 0.32s (0.479s)

02. Magnussen 0.21s (-)*

03. Hulkenberg 0.19s (0.285s)

04. Verstappen 0.114s (-0.083s)

05. Perez 0.113s (-0.024s)

06. Stroll 0.112s (0.301s)

07. Gasly 0.09s (-)*

08. Vettel 0.07s (-)*

09. Leclerc 0.01s (-)*

10. Hamilton 0s (0.16s)

 

*Grosjean didn't set a time

*Hartley hit the wall before he could set a representative time

*Raikkonen made multiple mistakes in Q3, should perhaps have been on pole ended up about 1 second slower

*Ericcson balked in qualifying

Edited by tyker, 28 April 2018 - 14:43.

[tyker]

After Barcelona (Barcelona Difference)

 

01. Alonso 0.3s (0.223s)

02. Leclerc 0.21s (0.832s)

03. Hulkenberg 0.19s (-)*

04. Magnussen 0.18s (0.081s)

05. Vettel 0.13s (0.307s)

06. Gasly 0.09s (-)

07. Verstappen 0.086s (0.002s)

08. Perez 0.08s (-0.044s)

09. Sirotkin 0.02s (0.53s)

10. Hamilton 0.01s (0.04s)

 

*A fuel pressure problem left Hulkenberg without enough time to set a representative lap

Edited by tyker, 14 May 2018 - 12:26.

[Laster]

I doubt Hulk’s time was representative with those fuel pressure problems.

[hlz15]

Agree with Laster. Don't get why driver mistakes were discounted from Baku but a problem genuinely outwith the driver's control isn't discounted this time.

[apoka]

Agree to the above posts.

[tyker]

Yes I did want to review the situation with Hulkenberg given the warm issue with the tyres in particular for Renault, Sainz had a preparation lap before his fast lap whilst Hulkenberg didn't have time for a preparation lap which obviously disadvantaged him so I'm happy to discount this data.

 

I initially counted it wanting to post the results soon after qualifying.

[PistolPete]

After Barcelona (Barcelona Difference)

 

01. Alonso 0.3s (0.223s)

02. Leclerc 0.21s (0.832s)

03. Hulkenberg 0.19s (-)*

04. Magnussen 0.18s (0.081s)

05. Vettel 0.13s (0.307s)

06. Gasly 0.09s (-)

07. Verstappen 0.086s (0.002s)

08. Perez 0.08s (-0.044s)

09. Sirotkin 0.02s (0.53s)

10. Hamilton 0.01s (0.04s)

 

*A fuel pressure problem left Hulkenberg without enough time to set a representative lap

 

Just checked the numbers for Spain and found the following mistakes. Right number in the paranthesis should be:

Perez-Ocon: -0.40

Magnussen-Grosjean: 0.16

[tyker]

Just checked the numbers for Spain and found the following mistakes. Right number in the paranthesis should be:

Perez-Ocon: -0.40

Magnussen-Grosjean: 0.16

I use the fastest laps of any given session which for Grosjean and Magnussen were in Q2 and not Q3, whilst with Ocon and Perez are you rounding up to 100ths of a second and not using 1,000ths of a second?

[PistolPete]

I use the fastest laps of any given session which for Grosjean and Magnussen were in Q2 and not Q3, whilst with Ocon and Perez are you rounding up to 100ths of a second and not using 1,000ths of a second?

 

Makes sense with Mag-Gro. Still think the Perez-Ocon is wrong though even if I rounded up to 100. If you keep it with the 3rd decimal its:

 

1:19.098 - 1:18.696 = 0.402

[markelov74]

Makes sense with Mag-Gro. Still think the Perez-Ocon is wrong though even if I rounded up to 100. If you keep it with the 3rd decimal its:

 

1:19.098 - 1:18.696 = 0.402

 

Perez's fastest lap was in Q1.

[tyker]

Perez's fastest lap was in Q1.

Yes Perez did a 1-18.74 in Q1

[PistolPete]

Yes I thought you were comparing inly within sessions as track become faster as more rubber gets into the track and hence comparing times between sessions makes less sense. At least if the purpose is to compare teammates. 

[tyker]

After Monaco (Monaco Difference)

 

01. Alonso 0.28s (0.171s)

02. Leclerc 0.26s (0.436s)

03. Vettel 0.15s (0.227s)

04. Gasly 0.14s (0.238s)

05. Hulkenberg 0.13s (-0.125s)

06. Sirotkin 0.12s (0.617s)

07. Verstappen 0.09s (-)

08. Perez 0.0527s (-0.093s)

09. Hamilton 0.0526s (0.209s)

10. Magnussen 0.0488s (-0.463s)

Edited by tyker, 26 May 2018 - 14:55.

[tyker]

Yes I thought you were comparing inly within sessions as track become faster as more rubber gets into the track and hence comparing times between sessions makes less sense. At least if the purpose is to compare teammates. 

Yes the sessions do tend to get faster which is in part why both drivers have to compete in the sessions, both Perez and Ocon competed in Q1 and Q2.

[tyker]

After Canada (Canada Difference)

 

01. Leclerc 0.26s (-)*

02. Alonso 0.24s (0.009s)

03. Vettel 0.18s (0.331s)

04. Gasly 0.14s (-)*

05. Hulkenberg 0.13s (0.181s)

06. Verstappen 0.1s (0.179s)

07. Sirotkin 0.09s (-0.053s)

08. Magnussen 0.05s (-)*

09. Hamilton 0.02s (-0.139s)

10. Perez 0s (-0.311s)

 

*Ericsson crashed, Gasly did not have the Honda PU upgrade, Grosjean's PU failed.

Edited by tyker, 10 June 2018 - 16:50.

[OnceMoreChamp07]

Only 2 hundreds between Bot and Ham. Some people should eat some crow, i'm sayin..

[abc]

Alonso was ahead by 0,009 not 0,09

[tyker]

Alonso was ahead by 0,009 not 0,09

Yes just a typo

[tyker]

After France (France Difference)

 

01. Leclerc 0.34s (0.749s)

02. Gasly 0.25s (0.578s)

03. Alonso 0.23s (0.186s)

04. Vettel 0.21s (0.372s)

05. Verstappen 0.12s (0.19s)

06. Hulkenberg 0.1s (-0.099s)

07. Sirotkin 0.09s (0.073s)

08. Ocon 0.05s (0.379s)

09. Hamilton 0.035s (0.118s)

10. Magnuseen 0.034s (-0.038s)

[RECKLESS]

Leclerc is boss!

[tyker]

Leclerc is boss!

Ferrari bound it seems?

[tyker]

After Austria (Austria Difference)

 

01. Leclerc 0.36s (0.512s)

02. Gasly 0.27s (0.355s)

03. Alonso 0.24s (0.306s)

04. Vettel 0.21s (0.196s)

05. Verstappen 0.12s (0.156s)

06. Hulkenberg 0.0745s (-0.115s)

07. Sirotkin 0.0736s (-0.058s)

08. Ocon 0.06s (0.131s)

09. Hamilton 0.03s (-0.019s)

10. Magnussen 0.01s (-0.159s)

[Joseki]

Why don't you use % instead of time? 2 tenths over 64 seconds are way more than 2 tenths over 100 seconds.

[Seanspeed]

Why don't you use % instead of time? 2 tenths over 64 seconds are way more than 2 tenths over 100 seconds.

Percentages would make the differences seem pretty insignificant as close as things are in F1.  

 

It's an imperfect system and tyker has never claimed otherwise.  But over a season, it tends to show a reasonably accurate picture. 

[l2k2]

Percentages would make the differences seem pretty insignificant as close as things are in F1.

It's an imperfect system and tyker has never claimed otherwise. But over a season, it tends to show a reasonably accurate picture.

If only people couldn't mentally scale them back to laptimes...

For this reason, one could also give the numbers in terms of “normalized” laptimes of, for example, 1:40.000... (or just give them in per mille if it's jusr the leading zero thar is too confusing).

[Though, with which laptime to normalize the drivers to begin with... I would actually suggest the median of the field instead of the usual fastest lap of the session.]

Though, the current system also works reasonably. The difference in the lengths (read: durations) of different laps just manifests itself as slightly noisier data for the averaging. And, averaging is quite good with that kind of noise...

[apoka]

Why don't you use % instead of time? 2 tenths over 64 seconds are way more than 2 tenths over 100 seconds.

 

I think it's because people are used to it. If they'd show % also in Q classification on TV and websites, then it could also be appropriate here.

[tyker]

After Silverstone (Silverstone Difference)

 

01. Leclerc 0.38s (0.459s)

02. Alonso 0.31s (0.909s)

03. Gasly 0.27s (-)

04. Vettel 0.19s (0.054s)

05. Verstappen 0.17s (0.497s)

06. Hulkenberg 0.11s (0.439s)

07. Sirotkin 0.07s (-)

08. Hamilton 0.061s (0.325s)

09. Ocon 0.059s (0.085s)

10. Magnussen 0.03s (0.211s)

[tyker]

After Hockenheim (Hockenheim Difference)

 

01. Leclerc 0.4s (0.567s)

02. Alonso 0.35s (0.787s)

03. Gasly 0.27s (0.296s)

04. Vettel 0.2s (0.335s)

05. Verstappen 0.17s (-)

06. Hulkenberg 0.117s (0.132s)

07. Sirotkin 0.116s (0.498s)

08. Magnussen 0.07s (0.344s)

09. Hamilton 0.06s (-)

10. Ocon 0.03s (-0.293s)

[tyker]

After Spa (Spa Difference)

 

01. Leclerc 0.38s (0.192s)

02. Alonso 0.35s (0.39s)

03. Gasly 0.24s (0.021s)

04. Verstappen 0.22s (0.572s)

05. Vettel 0.2s (-)*

06. Hulkenberg 0.14s (0.344s)

07. Sirotkin 0.12s (0.136s)

08. Hamilton 0.06s (-)**

09. Magnussen 0.03s (-0.278s)

10. Ocon 0s (-0.288s)

 

*Q3 wet, neither Ferrari driver flat out in Q2, nominally I would consider this for Red Bull as well but Ricciardo was genuinely struggling to qualify to the next level, the gap to Verstappen looked representative.

**Bottas didn't really take part in qualifying.

Edited by tyker, 25 August 2018 - 17:29.

[tyker]

After Monza (Monza Difference)

 

01. Leclerc 0.36s (0.159s)

02. Alonso 0.35s (0.235s)

03. Gasly 0.221s (0.1s)

04. Verstappen 0.215s (-)*

05. Vettel 0.17s (-0.161s)

06. Hulkenberg 0.14s (-)*

07. Hamilton 0.091s (0.362s)

08. Sirotkin 0.088s (-0.238s)

09. Ocon 0.03s (0.318s)

10. Magnussen 0.02s (-0.102s)**

 

 

*Ricciardo and Hulkenberg didn't really take part in qualifying

**Magnussen had his final run in Q2 spoiled by Alonso, the times are taken after their first runs in Q2.

Edited by tyker, 01 September 2018 - 18:52.

[tyker]

After Singapore (Singapore Difference)

 

01. Alonso 0.381s (0.842s)

02. Leclerc 0.379s (0.619s)

03. Verstappen 0.26s (0.662s)

04. Gasly 0.22s (0.195s)

05. Vettel 0.17s (0.166s)

06. Hulkenberg 0.148s (0.266s)

07. Hamilton 0.145s (0.687s)

08. Sirotkin 0.09s (0.071s)

09. Grosjean 0.06s (0.959s)

10. Perez 0s (0.38s)

[SenorSjon]

Big gaps this time. But % based should be better I think, the lap here is 100ish seconds, while Monza was about 70-80 seconds.

[Laster]

The gap between Perez and Ocon is surprising - 0. Ocon has managed to outqualify him more often than not, but I guess when Perez outqualifies Ocon it's by a much more significant gap. 

[tyker]

The gap between Perez and Ocon is surprising - 0. Ocon has managed to outqualify him more often than not, but I guess when Perez outqualifies Ocon it's by a much more significant gap. 

Yes 4 times Ocon set a faster lap less than a tenth quicker than Perez, Perez tends to set a lap 3 tenths quicker than Ocon.

[engineblock1]

I must say despite being at number 3, the real winner is Verstappen. He is up against a much well-rated teammate. Both Ericsson and Vandoorne are hardly any reasonable benchmarks.

[Poz85]

Either Vettel had a mare of a season in 2014 or Verstappen is like lightning, he's wiping the floor with Ricciardo in qualifying this season.

[tyker]

Yes you may consider that Verstappen is the fastest driver in F1, even faster than Hamilton, the match up with Ricciardo and Hulkenberg will be quite telling, basically to validate Ricciardo's 2014 season against Vettel he needs to be beating Hulkenberg by 0.24s, then that would point to Verstappen being the fastest driver in F1.

[coppilcus]

Either Vettel had a mare of a season in 2014 or Verstappen is like lightning, he's wiping the floor with Ricciardo in qualifying this season.

Either Vettel had a mare of a season in 2014 or Verstappen is like lightning, he's wiping the floor with Ricciardo in qualifying this season.

Vettel couldn’t keep up with the turbo engines in their first year of appearance...

[coppilcus]

The differences in Ferrari and McLaren are monstruous...

[beachdrifter]

Yes you may consider that Verstappen is the fastest driver in F1, even faster than Hamilton

 

Ricciardo has stated a number of times that he hasn't had a normal weekend since Monaco (0.09 s behind at point) for whatever reasons. I don't think we're seeing his normal pace right now, and haven't for quite a while, and now he's on his way out. I don't think it's very representative of what Ricciardo is normally capable of. 

[tyker]

The differences in Ferrari and McLaren are monstruous...

I'm not sure what you mean?

[tyker]

Ricciardo has stated a number of times that he hasn't had a normal weekend since Monaco (0.09 s behind at point) for whatever reasons. I don't think we're seeing his normal pace right now, and haven't for quite a while, and now he's on his way out. I don't think it's very representative of what Ricciardo is normally capable of. 

I don't know how you would define a normal weekend and 9 in a row seems unlikely and I can only take things at face value, a Vettel supporter may say he had an off season in 2014 so it doesn't count?

 

I also had Verstappen 0.15s quicker than Ricciardo last year so there comes a point were you just have to say that Verstappen is quicker and it's been a year on progression that you might expect from a young driver after it being really close between the two of them in 2016 when Verstappen joined Red Bull mid season and was clearly a work in progress.

[RPM40]

I don't know how you would define a normal weekend and 9 in a row seems unlikely and I can only take things at face value, a Vettel supporter may say he had an off season in 2014 so it doesn't count?

 

 

 

They seem to have a similar parallel, I think denying Verstappen is a faster qualifier than Ric is much like denying Ricciardo is a faster driver than Vet. Based in avoiding actual results for looking for other answers. 

[beachdrifter]

I don't know how you would define a normal weekend and 9 in a row seems unlikely and I can only take things at face value, a Vettel supporter may say he had an off season in 2014 so it doesn't count?

 

I'm not saying it doesn't count. Just adding some additional info. Ricciardo hasn't looked like himself for a long time to me. And not just because of the 4 DNFs.

 

And nobody is saying that Ricciardo is the faster qualifier. Not even himself. Just that the gap you're seeing since Monaco is probably a reflection of something other than his normal abilities. I'm completely fine with you not seeing any of that, it's a subjective impression.

Edited by beachdrifter, 16 September 2018 - 00:05.

[tyker]

I'm not saying it doesn't count. Just adding some additional info. Ricciardo hasn't looked like himself for a long time to me. And not just because of the 4 DNFs.

 

And nobody is saying that Ricciardo is the faster qualifier. Not even himself. Just that the gap you're seeing since Monaco is probably a reflection of something other than his normal abilities. I'm completely fine with you not seeing any of that, it's a subjective impression.

I believe that's just a feeling you have, for me what Ricciardo is having to deal with is an exceptionally talented driver.