178 replies to this topic

[JordanIreland]

Will Valtteri Bottas ever win the F1 Drivers Championship?

[f1paul]

Random question really.

 

My answer - No. 

[f1paul]

As long as Hamilton is his teammate, definitely not anyway. 

[Nonesuch]

He hasn't yet made 2nd in the years his team has (or will) win the WCC.

 

One step at a time.

[Fatgadget]

Stupid question...Gilles Villeneuve didn't win one neither. Nor Rene Arnoux. Nor did Sir Stirling Moss.Nor many other brilliant racing drivers...What is your point?

[GrumpyYoungMan]

Not unless Hamilton has to retire.

[Lights]

Most likely not.

 

In theory everything is possible though. Being in the right team with the right teammate at the right time, a lot of drivers could potentially win the championship.

[Marklar]

In the near future I'd say definitely no, unless Mercedes has a dominant car and Hamilton a good chunk of reliability issues (similar to how Rosberg won it) or a sudden drop. Beyond that it depends on how he develops and how the cars he'll get will perform as well on who his team mate would be..

[JordanIreland]

Most likely not.

 

In theory everything is possible though. Being in the right team with the right teammate at the right time, a lot of drivers could potentially win the championship.

 

Very good point.

 

If we look at his results across 2017 and 2018 against LH, it is clear that VB is a very strong driver, but just on wins alone LH is miles ahead.

 

LH vs VB 2018

https://www.gp-hub.c...valtteri-bottas

 

LH vs VB 2017

http://grandprixrank...-versus-bottas/

 

Lewis Hamilton’s previous team mates Rosberg, Button, Alonso all pushed him quite hard apart from Kovalainen.  Would VB fall into the Kovalainen group or Rosberg group?

 

Im a Valtteri fan (he really drove some strong races for Willaims and at times was a match if not more so for LH at times), but I suspect he may never win a championship. 

[SonGoku]

Next year is his last chance, he has to perform to keep Ocon out of his seat.

[GoldenColt]

Short answer: No.

 

Long answer: Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.

 

I just don't see any circumstances under which he could. As long as he is paired with Lewis, I don't see it happening. I doubt any other top team will be bending over backwards to sign him once he's out of Mercedes (which could be as soon as 2020 with Ocon waiting in the wings). He might stay at Merc for longer, but that will be down to the team wanting to keep the peace, which is partly based on the fact that he's not close enough to Lewis.

Edited by GoldenColt, 19 October 2018 - 21:52.

[Jordan199]

He'd have to be in a Jenson Button at Brawn situation to win a championship,unfortunately. 

[Atreiu]

Button is a WDC, so is Nigel... who knows?

[Spillage]

It's possible that he's a late bloomer like Rosberg, Button and Mansell. Doesn't look like it right now though. He's already 29 and his peak performance just isn't good enough.

[beachdrifter]

A better question is perhaps "Will Bottas improve his race pace?".

[rockdude101]

He just doesn't have 'it' 

 

Not every driver is destined for titles. 

[messy]

He's been really, really disappointing for me over the last two seasons. When he was the guy pushing the Mercedes' in qualifying sessions in 2014 I thought he was special. I didn't think he was far behind Dan Ricciardo that season, and unlucky not to win at least one of of those three non-Merc winning races that went to Dan. If anything, he was the guy pushing them the hardest I thought.

Then season after season he was excellent in the Williams, staying high quality week in week out even as Williams slipped slowly backwards.

But all he's done at Mercedes is prove a solid, unspectacular number two driver without any sort of spark of brilliance. Yeah, he started 2017 strongly, but just never made the step beyond that. He's been considerably further behind Hamilton than Rosberg was, so that tells me he's not nearly as good as Nico. He's a Barrichello, a Räikkonen, firmly in the number two zone, never going to be a top teams cutting edge.

Probably why drivers, namely Ocon at the moment, are so keen to be out of contract next winter I reckon.

[sopa]

The question sounds like somebody asking back in the day whether Coulthard or Barrichello would ever win a championship.

 

Very unlikely, unless he has a set of circumstances that almost let Irvine to win it in 1999. Or, even, why not Webber in 2010. But nowadays there is more 'status quo' in the pecking order, so sudden unexpected developments seem less likely.

 

Then again if Hamilton "does a Rosberg" and retires now, Merc 2019 line-up is Bottas & Ocon and they have the best car, while Ferrari self-destructs, he would be with a good chance. 

[motorhead]

I don´t understand this hype for Ocon. He isn´t actually dominating Perez, is he? On what grounds he would do better than Bottas? What would Ocon bring, more sponsors or more French fans?

[TheFish]

He’s fast enough in qualifying to win a title, but not in the races. Falls away too often.

To me, the potential future champions on the grid are:

Verstappen
Leclerc
Ricciardo
Ocon

Ocon only if he gets the best car when Lewis retires. Too early to say on the new guys joining next year.

[Trust]

I hope not.

[rockdude101]

I don´t understand this hype for Ocon. He isn´t actually dominating Perez, is he? On what grounds he would do better than Bottas? What would Ocon bring, more sponsors or more French fans?

 

Whilst Perez isn't at Lewis/Vettel level, he would certainly give Ricciardo or Bottas a challenge. Perez is really underrated. Bottas is 29. Ocon is 22. Ocon can improve, Bottas peaked at Williams.

 

 

To me, the potential future champions on the grid are:

Verstappen
Leclerc
Ricciardo
Ocon

 

Ricciardo has taken a huge leap into the unknown going to Renualt from Red Bull. If the car isn't good enough where will he go? Only tier 1 option for 2020 will be that Merc no.2 seat and every man and his dog will be throwing their hat in for that one. If he stayed at Red Bull he would still have a chance IMO. 

 

I think Ocon is a leap as well. We know he's talented but does he have 'it' uncertain, and he doesn't have the hype and contacts to push him into a seat. Gasly should be on that list, though.

[Ickx]

It's possible that he's a late bloomer like Rosberg, Button and Mansell. Doesn't look like it right now though. He's already 29 and his peak performance just isn't good enough.

Was Rosberg really a late bloomer? He showed that he deserved a F1 seat from the beginning and once he got a proper car he was right up there, having already beaten Schumacher (an old one but nevertheless). For most of their time together he managed to keep close to Hamilton, not quite on the same level but it is easy to argue few former champions could. Bottas has not managed to challenge Lewis nearly as much as Rosberg could.

Regarding future championships, who knows. If I had do bet I'd say no but if he finds himself in the right car at the right time it is certainly not impossible.

[f1paul]

I hope not.

I hope so because then that means it's been a mad season.

 

 

[igoru]

No. He is good pay Hamilton slave and clear nbr 2.

So thumb down F1.

No sport anymore just politics.

Toto Wolf most boring person ever seen.

Bring Flavio back and make  F1 spicy againg.

[boillot]

If his teammate has been Webber or similar (with all due respect), he would have likely won the 2017-2018 titles. But it’s good to have Hamilton in the other car, to put the things into perspective.
So the answer to topic title is no.

[RPM40]

If his teammate has been Webber or similar (with all due respect), he would have likely won the 2017-2018 titles. But it’s good to have Hamilton in the other car, to put the things into perspective.
So the answer to topic title is no.

I doubt Bottas would have won either of the last two titles regardless of his team mates

[boillot]

I doubt Bottas would have won either of the last two titles regardless of his team mates

I think he is of the sort that performs better given the no. 1 status.

[RPM40]

I think he is of the sort that performs better given the no. 1 status.

His margin over Massa was quite slim a lot of the time. It’s not surprising he’s off Hamilton’s pace

[noriaki]

The reasom I like VB is that his demeanour reminds me of Hakkinen. Mika, too, was always a rapid qualifier, merely a notch off Senna's pace - but struggled heavily with race pace until he found his happy place the late nineties...

So, yes, call me blinded by being a fan, but to me it looks entirely possible (even if not likely since beating Lewis would require lots of good fortune). Bottas strikes to me as a driver who is better on low fuel than a full load. What if Lewis retires soon and re-fueling is re-introduced?

[noriaki]

His margin over Massa was quite slim a lot of the time. It’s not surprising he’s off Hamilton’s pace

Iirc he outqualified Massa with a higher average gap than Alonso

[RPM40]

Iirc he outqualified Massa with a higher average gap than Alonso

Nope, that’s not true at all. The head to head results were similar but Alonso’s margin was significantly greater

[Jay101]

No. He is good pay Hamilton slave and clear nbr 2.

So thumb down F1.

No sport anymore just politics.

Toto Wolf most boring person ever seen.

Bring Flavio back and make  F1 spicy againg.

 

You think cheating is more sporting, interesting pov I suppose

[BuddyHolly]

No, never.

[SCUDmissile]

Did barrichello ever win one?

[sopa]

Barrichello, interestingly, got the chance of his lifetime in 2009, but he was too old to deliver any more.

[noriaki]

Nope, that’s not true at all. The head to head results were similar but Alonso’s margin was significantly greater

You are wrong.

Courtesy of Keith Collantine, avg gap to team mate:

2010 Massa +0.3 to Alonso (with refueling so not entirely representative)
2011 Massa +0.294 to Alonso
2012 Massa +0.329 to Alonso
2013 Massa +0.224 to Alonso

2014 Massa +0.401 to Bottas
2015 Massa +0.436 to Bottas
2016 Massa +0.285 to Bottas

(2017 Massa -0.702 to Stroll)

[RPM40]

You are wrong.

Courtesy of Keith Collantine, avg gap to team mate:

2010 Massa +0.3 to Alonso (with refueling so not entirely representative)
2011 Massa +0.294 to Alonso
2012 Massa +0.329 to Alonso
2013 Massa +0.224 to Alonso

2014 Massa +0.401 to Bottas
2015 Massa +0.436 to Bottas
2016 Massa +0.285 to Bottas

(2017 Massa -0.702 to Stroll)

How do those numbers work with excluding outliers? Without that it makes them borderline useless

[MortenF1]

What made you say Alonsos margin was significantly greater?

[RPM40]

You are wrong.

Courtesy of Keith Collantine, avg gap to team mate:

2010 Massa +0.3 to Alonso (with refueling so not entirely representative)
2011 Massa +0.294 to Alonso
2012 Massa +0.329 to Alonso
2013 Massa +0.224 to Alonso

2014 Massa +0.401 to Bottas
2015 Massa +0.436 to Bottas
2016 Massa +0.285 to Bottas

(2017 Massa -0.702 to Stroll)

 

 

https://www.reddit.c...g_gaps_between/

 

Here is a good comparison. 

 

Alonso had a 0.360% median advantage over Massa. Bottas just a 0.182% advantage over him. 

 

Which would correlate highly with the expected gap a driver like Hamilton and Alonso would have over Bottas of 0.200%.

 

The basis of the data seems reliable. 

Edited by RPM40, 20 October 2018 - 11:12.

[RPM40]

What made you say Alonsos margin was significantly greater?

As above. I’ve seen the figures quoted numerous times. It’s possible the averages are correct, but misleading. Averages are often incorrect due to outliers, median is the better data set.

[LuckyStrike1]

Who is Bottas? 

[Christbiscuit]

I don´t understand this hype for Ocon. He isn´t actually dominating Perez, is he? On what grounds he would do better than Bottas? What would Ocon bring, more sponsors or more French fans?

I’m with you. He’s not much better than Perez, if at all. If he really was the next big thing Merc would have had no trouble dropping Bottas for him, in the same way McLaren made space for Magnussen by dropping Perez, or RB dropping Kvyat to get Cerstappen in the car. That they didn’t tells me they think he’s good but not a great.

On topic, no, Bottas will never be WDC. Next season will be his last at Merc.

[Christbiscuit]

I think he is of the sort that performs better given the no. 1 status.

You din’t get given No. 1 status, you earn it by continually beating whoever they put you up against to the extent that the team feel confident putting all their eggs in your basket.

[F1matt]

Stupid question...Gilles Villeneuve didn't win one neither. Nor Rene Arnoux. Nor did Sir Stirling Moss.Nor many other brilliant racing drivers...What is your point?

Do you put Bottas up there with Moss and Villeneuve?

[Atreiu]

No. He is good pay Hamilton slave and clear nbr 2.
So thumb down F1.
No sport anymore just politics.
Toto Wolf most boring person ever seen.
Bring Flavio back and make  F1 spicy againg.

Flavio never used 2nd drivers or team orders, right?

[HermannH]

If he gets a dominant car and a weak teammate, then yes. As life has shown, you can even take 4 titles that way.

[EndlessMotion]

He's been pretty damn unlucky in a handful of races earlier on in the year when he was getting a little more out of the car than Lewis was when Mercedes were struggling with the tyres and still getting to grips with the new car. He could definitely have been in with more of a shot at the title this year than he ended up having but even with better luck you'd have to be mental to think he has the ability to perform to the kind of standards Lewis traditionally puts in week in, week out from the middle part of the season onwards.

 

I don't think there's a driver on the grid right now apart from Alonso that could live with Hamilton's second half season form though in fairness. Throw in the wet qualifying and races we've seen this year and whilst he's paried with Lewis he really stands no chance of being a WDC. He'd have to raise his game to the level Rosberg reached and hope Hamilton suffered similar reliability woes as he did in 2016. Not impossible I guess but he still has some way to go to reach Rosberg's 2016 level.

[Ivanhoe]

Stupid question...Gilles Villeneuve didn't win one neither. Nor Rene Arnoux. Nor did Sir Stirling Moss.Nor many other brilliant racing drivers...What is your point?

The question is what is your point exactly? Would your response be the same if the question was if Ericson or Stroll would ever win WDC? It’s not a stupid question at all, can a top (not elite) driver win a WDC in a dominating team. It happened before. Dragging Gilles and Sir Stirling Moss into this thread as a comparison, now that is kind of stupid.

Edited by Ivanhoe, 20 October 2018 - 15:16.

[AnR]

If he gets a dominant car and a weak teammate, then yes. As life has shown, you can even take 4 titles that way.

The ******** Red Bull caused is priceless 😂

Edited by AnR, 20 October 2018 - 13:55.