47 replies to this topic

[sopa]

Now that the 2018 F1 season is done, let's make our first predictions about 2019. So later everyone can see, how right or wrong did they get things.

 

So where will each team stand in 2019 in terms of performance? 

 

Add your explanations to each team if you want to.

[NixxxoN]

I'm afraid things wont change much. Merc best car yet again and Ferrari will try to challenge but finish 2nd.

The big question is, how worse Red Bull will be with the Honda in the back, and how many more DNFs will they have compared to this year? Red Bull have always had average reliability for trying to build very tight packages, and if you add the Honda factor to the combo, it could be a nightmare unless they improve a lot.

 

Other than that, In theory (and I hope so) Renault and McLaren should improve a lot, and so should the Renault engine, they said they will rebuild it completely.

Edited by NixxxoN, 26 November 2018 - 11:08.

[Balnazzard]

Tier 1

1) Mercedes. I think they are going to be much stronger again next season after learning much of their weaknesses this season. So for everyone wishing different champions, I think atleast on WCC side, you are going to be disappointed.
2) Ferrari. I dont think they are going to necessarily dive in terms of performance, but I have feeling that its going to be more of 2017 kind of season for them than 2018.

Tier 2
 

3) Red Bull. This is assuming that Honda is going to get lot more out of their PU...I have feeling that even in best case scenario they are going to be bit further back from Mercedes and Ferrari that they were this season, because while Honda clearly did managed to make some steps forward this season, they seem to still lack performance compared to other manufacturers. Red Bull's (Newey design) chassis is so strong however that just like this year it can compensate some of that lack of power from PU to certain degree, especially on tracks that dont demand most power from PU. If Honda fails however and Renault manages to really up their game, they might even fall behind Renault next season.
4) Renault. I expect them to make more progress next season, even able to challenge Red Bull quite often for podiums, but not quite be there in fight to challenge for wins.

Tier 3

 

5) Sauber. Considering how good car they were already able to build for this season and start development of 2019 very early and having Simon Resta from Ferrari joining them as well as enjoying the power of Ferrari's PU and with the consistent points scoring Räikkönen, I think they have very good chance at scoring points in 7-10th positions every race of the season, sometimes even getting higher up to 4th-7th positions, but getting podiums might require quite bit of luck.
6) Haas. Could be also Force India here, but since I have little faith in Stroll's capabilities compared to Haas lineup, I think they will come on top, especially if Grosjean is able to perform better.

7) Force India (yet to be renamed). Again in terms of performance I would except these 3 teams to be very closely matched, so the former Force India might even finish 5th and Sauber 7th.  However I very much think Stroll is going to be the weak link here and thus the team has to rely mainly for Perez to collect points

Tier 4

8) Mclaren I hope they are able to be quite close to tier 3 teams, and perform hopefully bit better than they did this year....however the team's lackluster performance during 2nd part of 2018 gives little hope that Mclaren would be able to vastly improve in 2019, but I hope Im proven wrong
9) Toro Rosso. Again if Honda is significantly able to improve their performance and Toro Rosso's chassis would be as good as Red Bull's then they might end up lot higher than this, but because I dont have much fate in Kvyat and their 2nd driver is stil unknown, Im just going to put them here for now
10) Williams With Stroll family money and Martini sponsorship gone and Kubica returning after being away 8 years and having rookie in the other car, I just cant see very bright future for Williams in 2019. Like with Mclaren I hope Im proven wrong, but I fear there isnt going to be much improvement made in 2019 and their season ends up being similar to 2018.

So in short its not going to look that much different compared to 2018, except that Sauber is going to improve the most, and Renault is slowly getting closer to the front. Red Bull really is the biggest question mark imho, so much depends obviously on how good and reliable that Honda PU will be. If they are able to make really big steps for 2019, then who knows, might even be able to really be in championship fight, they certain have the chassis and the driver capable of delivering wins. But somehow I have the feeling that Honda is not quite there yet and actually in 2019 we are going to see Renault closer to podiums than Red Bull closer to Ferrari and Mercedes.
 

Edited by Balnazzard, 26 November 2018 - 11:38.

[cravenciak]

Mercedes

Red Bull

Ferrari

Sauber

Force Stroll

Renault

Haas

Williams

Toro Rosso

McLaren

[KWSN - DSM]

1. Ferrari
2. Mercedes
3. Renault
4. Red Bull
5. Haas
6. Williams
7. Sauber
8. McLaren
9. Racing Point Force India under which ever name they will use
10. Toro Rosso

Ferrari through Vettel and Leclerc being a stronger lineup than Hamilton and Bottas, coupled with Ferrari car and engine being better than final result showed in 2018.

 

Renault better than Red Bull through them being a manufacturer team with a stronger than 2018 lineup, and Red Bull competing with a much improved Honda engine I do not expect to be equal to or better than the Renault. Gasly is obviously not a bad driver, however he will like most not be able to be anywhere close to Verstappen, seems from last couple of races there can be an edge of excitement to him, which I am not sure will play well as a clear number 2 driver.

 

Haas because they retain their lineup, because they have the Ferrari engine, and because someone have to finish 5, 6, 7 and 8. It will be very close between Haas, Williams, McLaren and Sauber, there are strengths and weaknesses for all 4, the basic soundness of the their car will mean a lot, a McLaren or Williams like car for either team will doom them, rookies in 3 of the teams, I would live Kubica to come good, but unfortunately have a mental question mark about him. 

 

Racing Point Force India or what ever name they will race under, for their driver pairing being about Perez scoring points on a regular, and Stroll scoring on an irregular basis.

 

Toro Rosso because of me not being convinced about Honda, and having a very low opinion over their presumed driver choices.

 

With 10 teams, and to spots to fill in it is pure guess work, in 2018 Williams made a poor car with a weak lineup all teams from 5th and down on my list are capable of making a poor car.

 

[Balnazzard]

Anyhow here are 2018 predictions for those who want to see how well their predictions went:

https://forums.autos...018 predictions

Well atleast I managed to get first 4 teams right as well as Sauber  and Toro Rosso, so 6 out of 10 wasnt that bad However overestimated Mclaren a bit and especially Williams and severly underestimated Haas (I dont even know/remember why )

[Thatfastguy]

I'm gonna be a pessimist here and say Mercedes are gonna walk it home. The team are doing great and the Hamilton/Bottas lineup has proved to be an effective and winning combination. I see no reason whatsoever why they would lack performance next year. They seem to be confident and on top of everything. 

 

Ferrari are gonna make a great car (again) but are taking on Leclerc who will either dissapoint in terms of speed and/or mistakes, or will greatly impress which would lead to great intra-team tensions between him and Vettel. Either scenario will lead to Ferrari throwing away important points for the WCC.

 

Red Bull: also too much uncertainty. They too will build a great car again, but Honda I think are still gonna lack in terms of speed and reliability compared to Ferrari & Mercedes. Besides that, they have taken on Gasly who is definitly fast, but still somewhat of an unknown quantity and has no plans at all of accepting a supporting role to Max. Max too has some cleaning up to do in terms of his racecraft. If he will remains to be seen. If Honda does deliver (small chance) they might beat Ferrari. 

 

Renault I think will close a bit off the gap to Red Bull and will easily secure 4th in the constructors but they won't be near on par with RB yet. Most of this will be due to an improved chassis and taking on Ricciardo. They won't be able to keep up with in-season development however, so the gap to the top 3 will likely grow over the season.

 

McLaren will get on top of some of their problems after building an absolute dog of a car this year. They will be top half of the midfield fighting with Sauber and occasionally taking the fight to Renault. 

 

Sauber will build another great car and will have a great Ferrari engine at their disposal. Kimi will have very decent performances but will dissapoint overall as he lacks motivation. Giovinazzi is overrated and will match a far over his prime Kimi at best. 

 

Toro Rosso I'm expecting to build a very decent car after announcing a closer partnership with RBR regarding chassis building and will have an improved Honda engine at their disposal. Also, they will be a bit less of a testbed now that RB also uses Honda engines. Biggest uncertainty of course is driver performance. Kvyat can be fast if he gets on top of his mental game and the second driver isn't even announced yet. Albon would be a good choice and would probably outperform Kvyat. Overall, the drivers will likely be their weakness.

 

Force India I'm expecting to drop down a bit. As much as I dislike Ocon, he's miles ahead of Stroll who shouldn't even be on the grid. Stroll is slow and lacks racecraft. The team have shown a bit of a downwards spiral over the season and I don't see that changing. They will be back end of the midfield, fighting with Haas and Williams. 

 

Haas: Will start off decent but will soon drop back. Grosjean is over his prime and will be outperformed by Magnussen. Will have a great Ferrari engine at their disposal but will lack severly in the chassis department. 

 

Williams: the gap is simply to big. Will build a better car but will still mostly be fighting at the back scrapping up the occasional point. Kubica will dissapoint, Russell will impress. Structural problems are still not solved.

 

In short: 

 

Top 3

 

1. Mercedes

2. Ferrari

3. Red Bull

 

Top-end midfield

 

4. Renault

5. Mclaren

 

Mid to Back-end midfield

 

6. Sauber

7. Toro Rosso

8. Force India

 

Back

 

9. Haas 

10. Williams

[Balnazzard]

 

 

Sauber will build another great car and will have a great Ferrari engine at their disposal. Kimi will have very decent performances but will dissapoint overall as he lacks motivation. Giovinazzi is overrated and will match a far over his prime Kimi at best. 

 

I really would like to know on what thing you are again basing the claim of "lack of motivation", considering that Kimi would have not signed deal with Sauber in the first place had he not had motivation to continue and also he seems genuinely excited about being there and having new challenge....

[kumo7]

1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari
3. Racing Point
4. Renault
5. Red Bull
6. Sauber
7. Haas
8. McLaren
9. Williams
10. Toro Rosso

Hard to say, I think Honda teams will have speed but no results for 50% of the races. 

Ferrari and Sauber will be upping their game and that will be in contention with RP.

Renault perhaps higher but not sure if they will be in front of Mercedes PU.

I say Williams to struggle just because they have been doing that, and McLaren sad enough there about. 

Toro Rosso will be doing lots and lots of DNF's for Red Bull therefore they will be the dead last.

[alframsey]

I expect the top two to remain the same with Merc and Ferrari being very closely matched, I hope RBR are in and around the fight at the front but I just can't see it. Renault to be closer and I hope McLaren sort the **** out and can move to the front of the midfield.

 

Lewis for Champion again and Ferrari for WCC if Bottas doesn't get his act together.

[JG]

Ferrari (fingers crossed)

Mercedes

--- 

Renault, I think they will make a big step 2019, Hulkenberg is a stable driver, and Riccardo will shine.

Red Bull-Honda, I predict that they will struggle, but take some podiums.

---

Sauber, things look good right now and with Kimi back, they will be best of the midfield.

HAAS, strong points collecting team.

Racing Point FI, Perez will continue grabbing good results, Stroll not so much.

----

Toro Rosso, Kyvat may grab some points, but who will be his teammate?

McLaren, Sainz is not Alonso.. And poor Norris, not the dream rookie seat.

Williams, my old favorite team is the new Tyrrell.. Kubica? I am not sure about his comeback, and Russell have a similar task as Norris. 

[absinthedude]

1. Mercedes (can't see anyone beating them)

2. Ferrari (Can't see anyone other than Merc beating them)

3. Racing Point/Force India (I think Honda will hit trouble)

4. Renault (I see them making progress and they have Ricciardo)

5. Hass (I see both drivers scoring consitently)

6. Red Bull (I see Honda still progressing and Gasly/Verstappen taking points off each other)

7. Sauber (Kimi will help develop their car)

8. Williams (Steady progress)

9. McLaren (Slipping back)

10. Toro Rosso (I just don't see the point)

[Thatfastguy]

I really would like to know on what thing you are again basing the claim of "lack of motivation", considering that Kimi would have not signed deal with Sauber in the first place had he not had motivation to continue and also he seems genuinely excited about being there and having new challenge....

 

Just a gut feeling honestly. All this 'exitement' over this romantic return to the team where it all started will soon fade when you're used to fighting for podiums and are now fighting for some odd points.

 

But I could be wrong of course. In fact I hope so. I have a lot of sympathy for Kimi and his move to Sauber. 

[HistoryFan]

1. Mercedes

2. Red Bull

3. Ferrari

4. Renault

5. Sauber

6. Haas

7. McLaren

8. Force India

8. Toro Rosso

9. Williams

10. Williams

[sopa]

My first thoughts:

 

1.-2. Mercedes/Ferrari. It's probably going to be these two teams again, who take a lion's share of victories. While I think Hamilton is favourite for WDC, the new driver dynamic in Ferrari throws an extra spanner in the works in terms of constructors, even if drivers end up costing the WDC by battling with each other. However, if pushed... I'm gonna say Mercedes again, because... they always win, right? And they seem like the more complete team and operationally better. It is also unknown, how will the death of Marchionne influence Ferrari long-term.

3. Red Bull Honda. Might win race(s) on twisty circuits.

4. Renault.

 

While the front is quite stable nowadays, midfield is the hardest to predict. However, I guess Haas is going to have a decent car again - they seem to have stability in the team. And Sauber could be quick too, as they have been boosted by some proper Ferrari funding these days. So they could be 5th and 6th. McLaren, Williams, Toro Rosso and Force Stroll are all big questionmarks as in what they could deliver next year, but not impossible someone could impress in midfield among them.

[ANF]

1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari

3. Red Bull
4. Renault

5. Sauber
6. Haas
7. Racing Point Whatever

8. Williams
9. McLaren
10. Toro Rosso

[Laster]

Since the top three feel fairly predictable, I’ll try to guess the average qualifying gap between the teams too.
1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari 0.2
3. Red Bull 0.6
4. Renault 0.9
5. Force Stroll 1.3
6. Mclaren 1.5
7. Haas 1.6
8. Sauber 1.7
9. Williams 1.8
10. Toro Rosso 1.9

[cheekybru]

Ferrari have put performed Merc in the off season the last few years, don't see a reason for this to change, and if you look at the last few races I wouldn't be surprised if Merc were third fastest car next year

1 - Ferrari
2 - Merc
3 - RB

[AlexPrime]

1 Ferrari
2 Merc
3-4 RBR Honda and Renault
5 Haas
6 Sauber
7 STR
8 McLaren
9 Racing Point
10 Williams

I hope that Ferrari is even stronger next year and finally wins. IMO Renault will also become significantly stronger. RBR fast, but with many retirements. Merc always dangerous, with Lewis favorite for the WDC.

[Mat13]

My 2018 predictions:

 

Mercedes
Ferrari
Red Bull
McLaren
Williams
Force India
Renault
Haas
Sauber
The Safety Car
Marshall’s scooter
David Crofts uptake
Alonso's Deckchair
Toro Rosso          

 

Not playing this year

[ConsiderAndGo]

I got it hopelessly wrong last year, so here goes!

1 Merc
2 Ferrari
3 Redbull
4 Renault
5 Haas
6 Racing Point
7 Sauber
8 Mclaren
9 STR
10 Williams

[RainyAfterlifeDaylight]

Redbull

Ferrari

Mercedes

 

Renault

McLaren

RacingPoint - Williams - HAAS - Sauber

 

ToroRosso

[Afterburner]

So if I were the scriptwriter for F1:

Red Bull will emerge as Mercedes’ primary contender. Hamilton and Verstappen will have one of the ugliest, most intense battles we’ve seen in decades with at least one race-ending collision for the pair of them at some point. Each will make uncharacteristic mistakes throughout the season as the mind games go up to 11,000, Hamilton with the off-track edge and Verstappen with the on-track edge. The deciding moment in the championship will occur in the final three races as a reliability issue takes one of them out of a race at a critical moment. Bottas and Gasly will only feature when one of them has an extra sh!t race and gets overtaken by both Ferraris in the last few laps; neither will finish in front of the other title contender often.

Charles Leclerc will win the first race of the year after an on-point safety car strategy (or at least take Ferrari’s first win of the year), and the hype train will kick into overdrive. This marks the first of many perfect calls which sees Ferrari invert their comically awful driver performances and race operations–except now the car is clearly a distant third. Vettel and Leclerc are able to function as a harmonious pairing without the pressure of a title fight dogging either of them. Both drivers will win at least one race, as the engine remains the best on the grid. Vettel will either be defeated by Leclerc or narrowly outscore him, and begin signing pre-contracts elsewhere as the team starts to gravitate towards Leclerc for when the car is ready, though the pair will continue on to 2020.

Ricciardo beats the crap out of Hulkenberg and mixes it with the Ferraris every once in a while, prompting at least one comically rage-filled tirade about pinball from one of the red cars. He won’t score a win but will end up best of the midfield, probably with one or two podiums to Hulkenberg’s zero.

Kubica will start strong but fade rapidly, probably with a random historically symmetrical best finish of seventh or something at Canada.

Lando Norris will continue Alonso’s reputation in the midfield by virtue of the fact that he will only ever appear on camera after one of several DRS + tyre assisted passes on a random midfielder. He’ll break the record for most 11th place finishes, triggering one meme about him always ending up 11th which will quickly be replaced by another one the first time he says, “It’s not my fault!” towards the end of the season.

Daniil Kvyat will remain composed and fast all year, randomly getting fifth or something at Baku, Singapore, or a track with lots of safety cars. Albon will be like Gasly was last year.

Raikkonen will say something entertaining over the radio about some dumbass move Carlos Sainz tries in Malaysia, and then realises he’s racing in China and it was in fact Hulkenberg who he crashed with.

Grosjean will cause at least one accident that royally screws over either Hamilton or Verstappen’s strategy by virtue of inducing a full safety car when one of them counts on it remaining a virtual safety car and waits too long to pit.

Stroll turns out to be much better than we all thought, but still crap.

I continue to catch races days after they’re broadcast in favor of Indycar.

Edited by Afterburner, 06 December 2018 - 18:17.

[DutchQuicksilver]

1. Mercedes - Hamilton is just too strong and surely Bottas will have a better year than this year.
2. Ferrari - Similar to this year. I can see Leclerc getting close to Kimi’s amount of points.
3. Red Bull - Still third best team. Better engine, but still the odd unreliability of the car itself.
4. Renault - Ricciardo is a solid improvement over Sainz, so more points than 2018 should be a no brainer.
5. Haas - Only if the car is as capable as this year with less mistakes from the team and its drivers.
6. Racing Point - Perez will score most of the points, but in a good car even Stroll can get some 40+ points.
7. Sauber - Raikkonen to score solid points, Giovinazzi is an improvement over Ericsson for sure.
8. McLaren - Alonso’s gone, Sainz is a solid midfielder without Alonso’s edge. Less points than 2018 I think.
9. Toro Rosso - Poor line up. Kvyat has the lead role, should score about the same as Gasly did. Albon, not too sure.
10. Williams - Better car for sure, but a handicapped driver and a rookie who will make the odd mistakes. More points than 2018 though.

[Joseki]

Surely wrong but

 

1.Mercedes

2.Ferrari

3.Red Bull

4.Renault

5.McLaren

6.Force India

7.Sauber

8.Haas

9.Williams

10.Toro Rosso

Edited by Joseki, 06 December 2018 - 19:30.

[BalanceUT]

1. Mercedes

2. Ferrari

3. Renault

4. Red Bull

5. Haas

6. Sauber

7. Force India

8. McLaren

9. Toro Rosso

10.Williams

[Nonesuch]

Here goes!

 

1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari
3. Renault
4. Red Bull
5. Sauber
6. Haas
7. McLaren
8. The Stroll Team
9. Toro Rosso
10. Williams

[messy]

I'm not sure things will change that much, in all honesty. Maybe the big hope is that Ferrari will manage to come out with a car that's got a clear advantage over Mercedes, so Vettel can then win races before he implodes and spends the rest of the year crashing into Bottas.

1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari

For Red Bull I think staying still will be a good result. I'm still not totally confident in Honda, this season was a good one for kicking McLaren when they were down and ridiculing their claims that it was all Honda's fault, but let's not forget that Honda absolutely sucked too 2015-17 and Toro Rosso did regress a bit in terms of their position in the midfield this year. I reckon Red Bull will be about where they were, with Renault absolutely right up their arses at the start of the year but a depressing gap to the top two.

3. Red Bull
4. Renault

Then it's anyone's guess. Haas are probably a good bet for P5.

[turssi]

Couldn't find the thread on 2019 calendar or pre-season testing, so I'll just use this one.

I hope for Merc and Ferrari to find some nice loopholes in the regulations and the maturing technologies so that they can get some surprises in during the season, fingers crossed for a rollercoaster run in 2019. From Red Bull and Renault I expect a nice fight for third. For the rest I hope they all manage to get into Q3 and score points evenly between them.

Had some trouble with the link, but here's the F1 dot com schedule for 2019: https://www.formula1...k2qqemiYue.html

I predict boring and cheap February first half car launches as the sponsors are worried by the global economy and don't want to encourage spending.

Stroll and Williams to skip first pre-season test, Honda powered teams to run last year's cars. Rest putting in decent lap amounts. Second pre-season test to have pr-laps from all middle field teams desperate for more sponsor visibility.

For the first four fly-aways I predict great weather and medium hot temps. Merc and Ferrari to be in a class of their own while others get up to speed with mixed results.

For Euro-season I predict hot hot hot weather with Renault and Red Bull breaking away from the middle field. Merc and Ferrari to clash on and off track. FIA and commercial rights holder to interfere for maximum social media attention.

For the final 9 races I predict stormy weather and temperature variations. Constructor duels for 1st, 3rd, 5th and one in the back as well.

1. Merc 601 points
2. Ferrari 599
3. Red Bull 251
4. Renault 249
5. Sauber 101
6. Toro Rosso 99
7. Haas 61
8. McLaren 59
9. Racing Point 51
10. Williams 50

Edited by turssi, 26 January 2019 - 17:26.

[FordFiesta]

Raikkonen will say something entertaining over the radio about some dumbass move Carlos Sainz tries in Malaysia, and then realises he’s racing in China and it was in fact Hulkenberg who he crashed with.

😆 👍

[Aaaarrgghh]

Well, here we go:

1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari
3. Red Bull
4. Renault
5. Racing Point
6. Haas
7. Sauber
8. Williams
9. McLaren

10. Toro Rosso

I would wager Ferrari and Mercedes will probably be a bit ahead of the others, while Red Bull might get a podium or two and Renault will probably be similar to last year (at the most, a podium here and there). I think Racing Point will benefit from their increased budget and Sauber will keep the momentum from the end of last season. An interesting thing to see this season is how well McLaren goes when Alonso will not be there to drag them up in the standings, Sainz did not exactly set the world on fire in his stint with Renault, so we will see.

[Alburaq]

Raikkonen will say something entertaining over the radio about some dumbass move Carlos Sainz tries in Malaysia, and then realises he’s racing in China and it was in fact Hulkenberg who he crashed with.

Grosjean will cause at least one accident that royally screws over either Hamilton or Verstappen’s strategy by virtue of inducing a full safety car when one of them counts on it remaining a virtual safety car and waits too long to pit.
Stroll turns out to be much better than we all thought, but still crap.

 

Edited by Alburaq, 26 January 2019 - 18:43.

[FordFiesta]

Stroll turns out to be much better than we all thought, but still crap.

😆👍

Even better.

[KWSN - DSM]

Changing my entry

 

1. Ferrari
2. Mercedes
3. Renault
4. Haas
5. Red Bull
6. Sauber
7. Williams
8. Racing Point
9. McLaren
10. Toro Rosso

Mercedes and Ferrari way in front of everyone else, Ferrari a much better team of drivers this year. Reneaulr because they have a much better team this year, as well them being a manufacturer and reaping the benefits from that.

 

Haas, Red Bull and Sauber will be close... one or two races during the season will determine standings between them. All three have flawed team of drivers, and I do not have the confidence that the Honda engine have actually come really good.

 

Williams, Racing Point and McLaren will be close as well, Williams have the better team of drivers, McLaren is one the worse engine and I question their team of driver strength in a trying season. Racing Point will surprise, and could end as high as 5, bearing Stroll actually being so much better than what he is being credited for on this forum, which I however think he is.

 

Toro Rosso a suspect team of drivers, an engine I do not have full confidence in, and the team have for all intents and purposes declared they will be a racing testbed for Red Bull and Honda.

 

[Ali623]

Being optimistic here.

 

Mercedes    

 

Ferrari            +0.1

 

Red Bull         +0.3

 

Renault          +0.5

 

McLaren        +0.8

 

Haas              +0.8

 

Racing Point  +1.0

 

Sauber           +1.2

 

Williams         +1.4

 

Toro Rosso    +1.5

[Lights]

Don't understand the consensus through all these predictions of Mercedes being on top. Ferrari already caught up last year and every winter since 14/15 they have been creeping forward.

So I'd say:

 

1. Ferrari. I expect they'll have the strongest PU and great driveability.

2. Mercedes. They'll be solid but have the usual diva issues.

3. Red Bull. Don't see them falling behind anyone else. I believe Honda will bring more peak power but also cause problems.

4. Renault

5. Racing Point

6. Haas

7. Sauber

8. Toro Rosso

9. McLaren

10. Williams 

[DutchQuicksilver]

Don't understand the consensus through all these predictions of Mercedes being on top. Ferrari already caught up last year and every winter since 14/15 they have been creeping forward.

Because Ferrari have an unreliable driver in Vettel and a rookie in a top team as their second one.

Also, they went backwards from ‘15 to ‘16 ;)

[Forghieri]

1. Mercedes

2. Ferrari

3. Red Bull

4. Renault

5. Racing Point/Haas/Sauber

8. Toro Rosso/Mc Laren

10. Williams

[BuddyHolly]

Mercedes (again.   zzzzZZZ)

Ferrari

Renault

Force whatever they call themselves now

Sauber

Red Bull

Haas

Toro Rosso

Williams

McLaren

[Nonesuch]

Don't understand the consensus through all these predictions of Mercedes being on top. Ferrari already caught up last year

 

If this was August, yes - but Ferrari didn't finish 2018 particularly strong.

[Beri]

1. Mercedes
2. Red Bull
3. Ferrari
4. Renault
5. Sauber
6. McLaren
7. Williams
8. Force Canada
9. Toro Rosso
10. Haas

[DrF]

Sauber were third last in 2018 with less than 50 points. Expecting them to be 5th with double the points is possibly a bit optimistic.

Would be great if they can manage it, but they'll have to hope Renault deliver another crappy PU and the Ferrari PU is a cracker.

[Beri]

I reckon Raikkonen and Ferrari/Alfa their involvement to be a thing of beauty.

[Afterburner]

Testing is almost here, so since 2020 prediction threads will be popping up soon, what better time to look back and see how wildly off the mark we all are as part-time soothsayers? What sayeth you?
 

So if I were the scriptwriter for F1:

Red Bull will emerge as Mercedes’ primary contender. Hamilton and Verstappen will have one of the ugliest, most intense battles we’ve seen in decades with at least one race-ending collision for the pair of them at some point. Each will make uncharacteristic mistakes throughout the season as the mind games go up to 11,000, Hamilton with the off-track edge and Verstappen with the on-track edge. The deciding moment in the championship will occur in the final three races as a reliability issue takes one of them out of a race at a critical moment. Bottas and Gasly will only feature when one of them has an extra sh!t race and gets overtaken by both Ferraris in the last few laps; neither will finish in front of the other title contender often.

Not even close on Hamilton and Verstappen! Both made mistakes in Germany, but were nowhere near one another in the championship. Bottas and Gasly were definitely MIA, but neither one was ever quick enough to end up in front of both Ferraris when the Ferraris were quicker. The only collision between Hamilton and Verstappen this year may have involved their egos. 2/5
 

Charles Leclerc will win the first race of the year after an on-point safety car strategy (or at least take Ferrari’s first win of the year), and the hype train will kick into overdrive. This marks the first of many perfect calls which sees Ferrari invert their comically awful driver performances and race operations–except now the car is clearly a distant third. Vettel and Leclerc are able to function as a harmonious pairing without the pressure of a title fight dogging either of them. Both drivers will win at least one race, as the engine remains the best on the grid. Vettel will either be defeated by Leclerc or narrowly outscore him, and begin signing pre-contracts elsewhere as the team starts to gravitate towards Leclerc for when the car is ready, though the pair will continue on to 2020.

2/5. Leclerc did outscore Vettel and the intrateam dynamic unfolded as predicted, but the car was good and race strategy remained as advanced as a game of 52 pickup. Leclerc definitely didn't win Australia.
 

Ricciardo beats the crap out of Hulkenberg and mixes it with the Ferraris every once in a while, prompting at least one comically rage-filled tirade about pinball from one of the red cars. He won’t score a win but will end up best of the midfield, probably with one or two podiums to Hulkenberg’s zero.

 54 points to 37 was definitely a beatdown. Ricciardo scored no podiums but neither did Hulkenberg. While neither Ferrari driver had anything to say about Ricciardo, he never really raced them enough to give them a chance. Ricciardo wasn't best of the midfield, either–that was Carlos Sainz, Jr. 2/6
 

Kubica will start strong but fade rapidly, probably with a random historically symmetrical best finish of seventh or something at Canada.

Lando Norris will continue Alonso’s reputation in the midfield by virtue of the fact that he will only ever appear on camera after one of several DRS + tyre assisted passes on a random midfielder. He’ll break the record for most 11th place finishes, triggering one meme about him always ending up 11th which will quickly be replaced by another one the first time he says, “It’s not my fault!” towards the end of the season.

Daniil Kvyat will remain composed and fast all year, randomly getting fifth or something at Baku, Singapore, or a track with lots of safety cars. Albon will be like Gasly was last year.

The less I can say about Kubica, the better. He did get points, though. 1/2
 
Norris did well but was outshone by Sainz. I eagerly await the day he proudly exclaims, "It's not my fault!" He was classified 11th four times; while I can't verify this statistically I don't think anyone will disagree if I say it's not a record! 0/3
 
Kvyat did well by all accounts this year, and actually did record his best result of the season in a race with lots of safety cars, though it was a podium (would you like earplugs to drown out the screeching from the goalposts I'm dragging?). 1/1
 
Albon was technically like Gasly last year in that a decision was made to promote him to Red Bull, but he was much better than I think many of us expected. 1/1 (SCREECH)
 

Raikkonen will say something entertaining over the radio about some dumbass move Carlos Sainz tries in Malaysia, and then realises he’s racing in China and it was in fact Hulkenberg who he crashed with.

Grosjean will cause at least one accident that royally screws over either Hamilton or Verstappen’s strategy by virtue of inducing a full safety car when one of them counts on it remaining a virtual safety car and waits too long to pit.

I don't recall anything noteworthy from Raikkonen over the radio this year, Carlos Sainz barely put a foot wrong, and as far as I can remember Hulkenberg and Raikkonen never encountered one another on track–and certainly not in China. 0/3
 
While involved in many accidents this year, not one of Grosjean's incidents had any meaningful bearing on a battle between Hamilton and Verstappen. (!) 0/1
 

Stroll turns out to be much better than we all thought, but still crap.

I continue to catch races days after they’re broadcast in favor of Indycar.

Well, this wasn't really fair. 2/2
 
SOOTHSAYER SCORE: 11/29

 

Maybe 'F1' is 'if' spelled backwards...

[Beri]

1. Mercedes
2. Red Bull
3. Ferrari
4. Renault
5. Sauber
6. McLaren
7. Williams
8. Force Canada
9. Toro Rosso
10. Haas

Oh dear me. I'd better skip the lotto this weekend.

[CPR]

I'm pretty sure I never posted any full grid predictions though I seem to remember saying that generally the safest assumption is "more of the same" (ie things don't generally change that much from year to year). I did expect McLaren to improve in 2019 for specific reasons but how accurate was my general assumption?

 

 

Team     2018 2019 Diff Percent

Mercedes  655  739   84      13

Ferrari   571  504  -67     -12

Red Bull  419  417   -2       0

Renault   122   91  -31     -25

Haas       93   28  -65     -70

McLaren    62  145   83     134

FI/RP      52   73   21      40

Sauber     48   57    9      19

Toro Rosso 33   85   52     158

Williams    7    1   -6     -86

 

 

If we look at constructors points, some didn't change much while some changed quite a bit. In absolute terms, Mercedes gained the most, just beating McLaren, but in percentage terms the gain was modest. Ferrari went backwards overall the most in absolute terms but not in relative terms (Williams). Red Bull were clearly the most consistent on this measure.

 

It doesn't feel like "more of the same" was a big winner overall. It's not like things were completely different but say we were comparing normal companies in the same sector in business - I'd expect things to be a lot more similar from one year to another.

Edited by CPR, 28 January 2020 - 11:13.

[Kalmake]

*FI/RP      111   73   38      -34

[Ali623]

 

I'm pretty sure I never posted any full grid predictions though I seem to remember saying that generally the safest assumption is "more of the same" (ie things don't generally change that much from year to year). I did expect McLaren to improve in 2019 for specific reasons but how accurate was my general assumption?

 

 

Team     2018 2019 Diff Percent

Mercedes  655  739   84      13

Ferrari   571  504  -67     -12

Red Bull  419  417   -2       0

Renault   122   91  -31     -25

Haas       93   28  -65     -70

McLaren    62  145   83     134

FI/RP      52   73   21      40

Sauber     48   57    9      19

Toro Rosso 33   85   52     158

Williams    7    1   -6     -86

 

 

If we look at constructors points, some didn't change much while some changed quite a bit. In absolute terms, Mercedes gained the most, just beating McLaren, but in percentage terms the gain was modest. Ferrari went backwards overall the most in absolute terms but not in relative terms (Williams). Red Bull were clearly the most consistent on this measure.

 

It doesn't feel like "more of the same" was a big winner overall. It's not like things were completely different but say we were comparing normal companies in the same sector in business - I'd expect things to be a lot more similar from one year to another.

 

 

Interesting that Red Bull were the most consistent despite their issues with the second driver - I guess factoring that in, they theoretically had a decent improvement.