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Place The Points Competition 2018 final standings after Abu Dhabi


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#1 Makarias

Makarias
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Posted 26 November 2018 - 14:12

2018 final standings after Abu Dhabi:

Pos Name                  Tot Latest
1)  thegforcemaybewithyou1943  59
2)  Makarias             1906  48
3)  fisichella_2001      1901  59
4)  KWSN-DSM             1894  34
5)  RaikkonenFan96       1884  46
6)  DutchQuicksilver     1875  47
7)  wattoroos            1861  48
8)  Bleu                 1854  52
9)  Kev00                1853  41
10) Apex                 1851  32
11) scheivlak            1846  45
12) M2000-5              1832  66
13) GTA                  1828  57
14) Marklar              1825  47
15) AcuraF1              1817  42
=   Grayson              1817  41
17) mark f1              1807  49
18) Brawn BGP 001        1798  47
=   f1paul               1798  40
20) sladealonso          1795  47
21) noikeee              1788  65
22) SpaceHorseParty      1780  47
23) markelov74           1776  47
24) Costaz               1761  26
25) Barty                1749  49
Congratulations to 2018 champion thegforcemaybewithyou :clap: :clap: :clap: with a landslide win!
Congratulations also to runner-up Makarias :clap: :clap:
and third place finisher fisichella_2001 :clap:

The winning margin for gforce of 37 points slots in neatly at second all time between Crazy Canuck's 2011 margin of 38 points and scheivlak's 2013 margin of 36 points.

All 25 players will score points in the 2018 Supercup.

The entries

PTPC Hall of Fame
Year  WDC   Game         Pl  Winner
 AD  Points  Win   %     #
2000   442   365  82.58  14  jack and gilles
2001   442   364  82.35  69  MrT, tacololo
2002   442   376  85.07  46  smarty
2003   624   537  86.06  41  arcsine
2004   702   554  78.98  48  Pioneer
2005   741   595  80.30  49  KWSN-DSM
2006   702   592  84.33  47  an1res
2007   663   563  84.92  40  turin
2008   702   597  85.04  39  AcuraF1
2009   731   518  70.86  29  D82
2010  1919  1674  87.23  34  Costaz
2011  1919  1664  86.71  25  Crazy Canuck
2012  2020  1706  84.46  28  Costaz
2013  1919  1656  86.29  27  scheivlak
2014  1919  1602  83.48  30  noikeee
2015  1919  1710  89.11* 25  mark f1
2016  2121  1751  82.56  25  Brawn BGP 001
2017  2020  1861  92.13  22  Kev00
2018  2121  1943  91.61  25  thegforcemaybewithyou
*2020 points in the guesses
With the two most accurate winning guesses being the last two ones, one suspects that F1 perhaps is becoming too predictable for its own good.

The Drivers' list
Driver Expect  Surprise Beat
           %        %     #
Lecl    855,1    243,8   25
Eric    642,8     81,8   24
Gasl    173,0     93,5   24
Magn    161,5     69,1   21
Räik    145,2    119,0   25
Pere    121,0     64,6   17
Vett    115,5     81,4   24
Hami    114,7    101,7   25
Gros     94,4     50,7   13
Vers     93,4     77,1    7
Bott     88,1     72,4    3
Hülk     86,9     62,2    5
Ocon     86,3     36,0   11
Sain     74,4     51,0    1
Ricc     73,3     59,9    0
Alon     57,9     37,6    2
Hart     38,2     15,4    4
Stro     32,7      7,4    4
Vand     23,3     12,0    0
Siro      7,1      2,4    1
At the season finale Lewis Hamilton becomes the third 100% surprise of 2018! This is very impressive considering how expectations on him naturally were very high but he also had some serious challenge from other teams. Congratulations!

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2018 this is 25.


Guesses on P1-P5:
Hamilton               Vettel                 Verstappen             Ricciardo              Bottas              
* Potential     408    M2000-5         392    GTA             322    f1paul          283    GTA             340
* Forecast      408    * Potential     320    Barty           315    markelov74      265    sladealonso     336
* Current       408    * Forecast      320    f1paul          315    wattoroos       265    noikeee         335
noikeee         400    * Current       320    Brawn BGP 001   313    Makarias        251    Barty           333
GTA             392    fisichella_2001 314    markelov74      300    SpaceHorseParty 250    SpaceHorseParty 304
M2000-5         386    AcuraF1         310    scheivlak       285    Grayson         245    Marklar         302
Makarias        384    thegforcemaybewi310    Marklar         280    Marklar         242    DutchQuicksilver301
sladealonso     383    Bleu            308    fisichella_2001 277    Apex            240    M2000-5         281
SpaceHorseParty 382    Kev00           307    SpaceHorseParty 277    mark f1         240    KWSN-DSM        280
Grayson         370    KWSN-DSM        300    Kev00           270    sladealonso     239    thegforcemaybewi280
thegforcemaybewi370    Costaz          288    M2000-5         270    M2000-5         237    scheivlak       279
scheivlak       368    Makarias        285    mark f1         270    DutchQuicksilver234    RaikkonenFan96  277
DutchQuicksilver367    RaikkonenFan96  283    thegforcemaybewi270    Brawn BGP 001   233    Bleu            272
RaikkonenFan96  366    Apex            280    wattoroos       268    noikeee         232    Makarias        272
Brawn BGP 001   364    DutchQuicksilver278    noikeee         265    scheivlak       232    wattoroos       271
Bleu            353    f1paul          276    RaikkonenFan96  261    thegforcemaybewi230    Apex            270
Marklar         351    Marklar         274    Makarias        259    Bleu            229    Grayson         270
Apex            350    Grayson         265    sladealonso     256    fisichella_2001 229    fisichella_2001 266
KWSN-DSM        350    scheivlak       265    * Potential     249    RaikkonenFan96  228    markelov74      265
mark f1         350    Brawn BGP 001   264    * Forecast      249    Kev00           215    AcuraF1         260
AcuraF1         343    wattoroos       256    * Current       249    AcuraF1         205    mark f1         255
Kev00           343    markelov74      255    Bleu            246    GTA             200    Brawn BGP 001   254
fisichella_2001 341    sladealonso     251    DutchQuicksilver246    KWSN-DSM        200    * Potential     247
markelov74      335    mark f1         245    Grayson         245    Costaz          195    * Forecast      247
f1paul          324    Barty           240    AcuraF1         224    Barty           180    * Current       247
wattoroos       317    SpaceHorseParty 231    Apex            220    * Potential     170    f1paul          241
Barty           310    GTA             225    KWSN-DSM        213    * Forecast      170    Costaz          237
Costaz          291    noikeee         225    Costaz          200    * Current       170    Kev00           228
Vettel actually beat every guess bar a very optimistic outlier by M2000-5. Ricciardo's reliability woes turned his season into a dud.

Guesses on P6-P10:
Sainz                  Leclerc                Perez                  Grosjean               Magnussen           
SpaceHorseParty 103    * Potential      39    Bleu             95    GTA              72    KWSN-DSM         80
Barty           100    * Forecast       39    AcuraF1          81    Costaz           70    GTA              70
f1paul           89    * Current        39    Barty            70    noikeee          64    noikeee          61
sladealonso      81    Apex             15    KWSN-DSM         70    wattoroos        61    wattoroos        57
Grayson          80    RaikkonenFan96   14    DutchQuicksilver 68    Marklar          57    * Potential      56
Costaz           75    scheivlak        12    mark f1          66    KWSN-DSM         50    * Forecast       56
mark f1          75    f1paul            8    thegforcemaybewi 65    Makarias         46    * Current        56
markelov74       75    markelov74        8    Costaz           63    Brawn BGP 001    44    Costaz           48
noikeee          75    wattoroos         7    * Potential      62    SpaceHorseParty  41    Makarias         42
wattoroos        75    DutchQuicksilver  6    * Forecast       62    thegforcemaybewi 40    fisichella_2001  40
Kev00            74    Grayson           6    * Current        62    sladealonso      39    thegforcemaybewi 40
Bleu             71    mark f1           6    Apex             60    fisichella_2001  38    RaikkonenFan96   38
GTA              68    Barty             5    markelov74       60    * Potential      37    scheivlak        36
M2000-5          68    fisichella_2001   5    GTA              54    * Forecast       37    markelov74       35
fisichella_2001  66    sladealonso       5    Grayson          50    * Current        37    SpaceHorseParty  35
Marklar          66    thegforcemaybewi  3    Kev00            47    DutchQuicksilver 36    Kev00            34
scheivlak        65    AcuraF1           2    RaikkonenFan96   45    f1paul           36    Marklar          34
Makarias         64    Bleu              2    fisichella_2001  44    Kev00            36    sladealonso      29
RaikkonenFan96   63    Brawn BGP 001     2    wattoroos        43    RaikkonenFan96   36    Barty            26
AcuraF1          62    Kev00             2    Marklar          42    markelov74       35    Brawn BGP 001    26
Apex             61    KWSN-DSM          2    Makarias         41    scheivlak        34    Apex             25
DutchQuicksilver 61    M2000-5           1    scheivlak        40    Apex             30    mark f1          25
thegforcemaybewi 60    Makarias          1    M2000-5          36    mark f1          30    DutchQuicksilver 23
Brawn BGP 001    54    noikeee           1    SpaceHorseParty  33    AcuraF1          22    f1paul           23
* Potential      53    SpaceHorseParty   1    f1paul           32    Grayson          20    Grayson          20
* Forecast       53    Costaz            0    sladealonso      29    Bleu             17    M2000-5           8
* Current        53    GTA               0    Brawn BGP 001    24    M2000-5          14    AcuraF1           6
KWSN-DSM         50    Marklar           0    noikeee          23    Barty            12    Bleu              6
With a strong performance in the season finale Sainz finally manages to beat a guess.

The PTPC forecast after Brazil
Name              Forecast  +/-
thegforcemaybewithyou1936,5   0,6
Makarias             1898,1   5,4
fisichella_2001      1896,6   1,6
KWSN-DSM             1893,0  -4,4
RaikkonenFan96       1882,3  -1,9
DutchQuicksilver     1875,2  -3,7
wattoroos            1858,1   4,4
Bleu                 1854,2  -5,7
Apex                 1852,6  -9,3
Kev00                1849,2   0,4
scheivlak            1844,3  -3,6
GTA                  1821,5   5,0
M2000-5              1820,9  -4,3
Marklar              1818,1   5,4
Grayson              1817,1  -1,6
AcuraF1              1815,0  -9,9
mark f1              1804,2  -5,7
Brawn BGP 001        1793,4   1,8
sladealonso          1790,3   1,9
f1paul               1788,5   6,7
noikeee              1785,0   5,4
SpaceHorseParty      1775,1   2,2
markelov74           1774,1  -2,6
Costaz               1756,9  -5,4
Barty                1746,6  -6,2
The final forecast managed to predict the final standings rather well after already knowing how 95.2% of the season had unfolded.

The best guesses on each driver
 X    #   !  Y
Hami 408 400 noikeee
Vett 320 314 fisichella_2001
Räik 251 210 thegforcemaybewithyou
Vers 249 246 Bleu
Bott 247 241 f1paul
Ricc 170 180 Barty
Hülk  69  69 Makarias
Pere  62  63 Costaz
Magn  56  57 wattoroos
Sain  53  54 Brawn BGP 001
Alon  50  50 KWSN-DSM
Ocon  49  50 Grayson
Lecl  39  15 Apex
Gros  37  36 or 38: five players
Gasl  29  30 wattoroos
Vand  12  20 GTA, M2000-5, thegforcemaybewithyou
Eric   9  10 Barty
Stro   6   6 GTA
Hart   4   4 SpaceHorseParty
Siro   1   0 or 2: f1paul, M2000-5
Kubi   0   0 everyone bar Costaz and KWSN-DSM
Four spot on nonzero guesses this year, compared to twelve in 2017.

Reality check on some of our predictions

Popularity Poll WCC prediction:
Team   Pred  Off
Merc   636  + 19
RBR    499  - 80
Ferr   450  +121
Rena   150  - 28
McLa   138  - 76
FoIn   108  +  3
Haas    74  + 19
Will    32  - 25
STR     28  +  5
Saub     6  + 42
A + in the "off" column means the prediction was outscored.
Four years in a row now Williams has ended up disappointing us.

Teammate battles: Which driver is expected to outscore his teammate?
Owner               Owned Comment
     <-     =    ->
Alon  25    0    0  Vand  Correct
Vett  25    0    0  Räik  Correct
Hami  24    0    1  Bott  Correct
Vers  23    1    1  Ricc  Correct
Lecl  21    3    1  Eric  Correct
Gasl  20    5    0  Hart  Correct
Hülk  18    2    5  Sain  Correct
Gros  17    3    5  Magn  Wrong
Ocon  16    5    4  Pere  Wrong
Stro  12    4    9  Siro  Correct
We got two of the more uncertain matchups guessed wrong. Not too bad.

Thank you for participating! Have a nice offseason and welcome back in 2019!