2018 final standings after Abu Dhabi:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) thegforcemaybewithyou1943 59 2) Makarias 1906 48 3) fisichella_2001 1901 59 4) KWSN-DSM 1894 34 5) RaikkonenFan96 1884 46 6) DutchQuicksilver 1875 47 7) wattoroos 1861 48 8) Bleu 1854 52 9) Kev00 1853 41 10) Apex 1851 32 11) scheivlak 1846 45 12) M2000-5 1832 66 13) GTA 1828 57 14) Marklar 1825 47 15) AcuraF1 1817 42 = Grayson 1817 41 17) mark f1 1807 49 18) Brawn BGP 001 1798 47 = f1paul 1798 40 20) sladealonso 1795 47 21) noikeee 1788 65 22) SpaceHorseParty 1780 47 23) markelov74 1776 47 24) Costaz 1761 26 25) Barty 1749 49Congratulations to 2018 champion thegforcemaybewithyou
with a landslide win!Congratulations also to runner-up Makarias
and third place finisher fisichella_2001
The winning margin for gforce of 37 points slots in neatly at second all time between Crazy Canuck's 2011 margin of 38 points and scheivlak's 2013 margin of 36 points.
All 25 players will score points in the 2018 Supercup.
The entries
PTPC Hall of Fame
Year WDC Game Pl Winner AD Points Win % # 2000 442 365 82.58 14 jack and gilles 2001 442 364 82.35 69 MrT, tacololo 2002 442 376 85.07 46 smarty 2003 624 537 86.06 41 arcsine 2004 702 554 78.98 48 Pioneer 2005 741 595 80.30 49 KWSN-DSM 2006 702 592 84.33 47 an1res 2007 663 563 84.92 40 turin 2008 702 597 85.04 39 AcuraF1 2009 731 518 70.86 29 D82 2010 1919 1674 87.23 34 Costaz 2011 1919 1664 86.71 25 Crazy Canuck 2012 2020 1706 84.46 28 Costaz 2013 1919 1656 86.29 27 scheivlak 2014 1919 1602 83.48 30 noikeee 2015 1919 1710 89.11* 25 mark f1 2016 2121 1751 82.56 25 Brawn BGP 001 2017 2020 1861 92.13 22 Kev00 2018 2121 1943 91.61 25 thegforcemaybewithyou*2020 points in the guesses
With the two most accurate winning guesses being the last two ones, one suspects that F1 perhaps is becoming too predictable for its own good.
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Lecl 855,1 243,8 25 Eric 642,8 81,8 24 Gasl 173,0 93,5 24 Magn 161,5 69,1 21 Räik 145,2 119,0 25 Pere 121,0 64,6 17 Vett 115,5 81,4 24 Hami 114,7 101,7 25 Gros 94,4 50,7 13 Vers 93,4 77,1 7 Bott 88,1 72,4 3 Hülk 86,9 62,2 5 Ocon 86,3 36,0 11 Sain 74,4 51,0 1 Ricc 73,3 59,9 0 Alon 57,9 37,6 2 Hart 38,2 15,4 4 Stro 32,7 7,4 4 Vand 23,3 12,0 0 Siro 7,1 2,4 1At the season finale Lewis Hamilton becomes the third 100% surprise of 2018! This is very impressive considering how expectations on him naturally were very high but he also had some serious challenge from other teams. Congratulations!
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2018 this is 25.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Hamilton Vettel Verstappen Ricciardo Bottas * Potential 408 M2000-5 392 GTA 322 f1paul 283 GTA 340 * Forecast 408 * Potential 320 Barty 315 markelov74 265 sladealonso 336 * Current 408 * Forecast 320 f1paul 315 wattoroos 265 noikeee 335 noikeee 400 * Current 320 Brawn BGP 001 313 Makarias 251 Barty 333 GTA 392 fisichella_2001 314 markelov74 300 SpaceHorseParty 250 SpaceHorseParty 304 M2000-5 386 AcuraF1 310 scheivlak 285 Grayson 245 Marklar 302 Makarias 384 thegforcemaybewi310 Marklar 280 Marklar 242 DutchQuicksilver301 sladealonso 383 Bleu 308 fisichella_2001 277 Apex 240 M2000-5 281 SpaceHorseParty 382 Kev00 307 SpaceHorseParty 277 mark f1 240 KWSN-DSM 280 Grayson 370 KWSN-DSM 300 Kev00 270 sladealonso 239 thegforcemaybewi280 thegforcemaybewi370 Costaz 288 M2000-5 270 M2000-5 237 scheivlak 279 scheivlak 368 Makarias 285 mark f1 270 DutchQuicksilver234 RaikkonenFan96 277 DutchQuicksilver367 RaikkonenFan96 283 thegforcemaybewi270 Brawn BGP 001 233 Bleu 272 RaikkonenFan96 366 Apex 280 wattoroos 268 noikeee 232 Makarias 272 Brawn BGP 001 364 DutchQuicksilver278 noikeee 265 scheivlak 232 wattoroos 271 Bleu 353 f1paul 276 RaikkonenFan96 261 thegforcemaybewi230 Apex 270 Marklar 351 Marklar 274 Makarias 259 Bleu 229 Grayson 270 Apex 350 Grayson 265 sladealonso 256 fisichella_2001 229 fisichella_2001 266 KWSN-DSM 350 scheivlak 265 * Potential 249 RaikkonenFan96 228 markelov74 265 mark f1 350 Brawn BGP 001 264 * Forecast 249 Kev00 215 AcuraF1 260 AcuraF1 343 wattoroos 256 * Current 249 AcuraF1 205 mark f1 255 Kev00 343 markelov74 255 Bleu 246 GTA 200 Brawn BGP 001 254 fisichella_2001 341 sladealonso 251 DutchQuicksilver246 KWSN-DSM 200 * Potential 247 markelov74 335 mark f1 245 Grayson 245 Costaz 195 * Forecast 247 f1paul 324 Barty 240 AcuraF1 224 Barty 180 * Current 247 wattoroos 317 SpaceHorseParty 231 Apex 220 * Potential 170 f1paul 241 Barty 310 GTA 225 KWSN-DSM 213 * Forecast 170 Costaz 237 Costaz 291 noikeee 225 Costaz 200 * Current 170 Kev00 228Vettel actually beat every guess bar a very optimistic outlier by M2000-5. Ricciardo's reliability woes turned his season into a dud.
Guesses on P6-P10:
Sainz Leclerc Perez Grosjean Magnussen SpaceHorseParty 103 * Potential 39 Bleu 95 GTA 72 KWSN-DSM 80 Barty 100 * Forecast 39 AcuraF1 81 Costaz 70 GTA 70 f1paul 89 * Current 39 Barty 70 noikeee 64 noikeee 61 sladealonso 81 Apex 15 KWSN-DSM 70 wattoroos 61 wattoroos 57 Grayson 80 RaikkonenFan96 14 DutchQuicksilver 68 Marklar 57 * Potential 56 Costaz 75 scheivlak 12 mark f1 66 KWSN-DSM 50 * Forecast 56 mark f1 75 f1paul 8 thegforcemaybewi 65 Makarias 46 * Current 56 markelov74 75 markelov74 8 Costaz 63 Brawn BGP 001 44 Costaz 48 noikeee 75 wattoroos 7 * Potential 62 SpaceHorseParty 41 Makarias 42 wattoroos 75 DutchQuicksilver 6 * Forecast 62 thegforcemaybewi 40 fisichella_2001 40 Kev00 74 Grayson 6 * Current 62 sladealonso 39 thegforcemaybewi 40 Bleu 71 mark f1 6 Apex 60 fisichella_2001 38 RaikkonenFan96 38 GTA 68 Barty 5 markelov74 60 * Potential 37 scheivlak 36 M2000-5 68 fisichella_2001 5 GTA 54 * Forecast 37 markelov74 35 fisichella_2001 66 sladealonso 5 Grayson 50 * Current 37 SpaceHorseParty 35 Marklar 66 thegforcemaybewi 3 Kev00 47 DutchQuicksilver 36 Kev00 34 scheivlak 65 AcuraF1 2 RaikkonenFan96 45 f1paul 36 Marklar 34 Makarias 64 Bleu 2 fisichella_2001 44 Kev00 36 sladealonso 29 RaikkonenFan96 63 Brawn BGP 001 2 wattoroos 43 RaikkonenFan96 36 Barty 26 AcuraF1 62 Kev00 2 Marklar 42 markelov74 35 Brawn BGP 001 26 Apex 61 KWSN-DSM 2 Makarias 41 scheivlak 34 Apex 25 DutchQuicksilver 61 M2000-5 1 scheivlak 40 Apex 30 mark f1 25 thegforcemaybewi 60 Makarias 1 M2000-5 36 mark f1 30 DutchQuicksilver 23 Brawn BGP 001 54 noikeee 1 SpaceHorseParty 33 AcuraF1 22 f1paul 23 * Potential 53 SpaceHorseParty 1 f1paul 32 Grayson 20 Grayson 20 * Forecast 53 Costaz 0 sladealonso 29 Bleu 17 M2000-5 8 * Current 53 GTA 0 Brawn BGP 001 24 M2000-5 14 AcuraF1 6 KWSN-DSM 50 Marklar 0 noikeee 23 Barty 12 Bleu 6With a strong performance in the season finale Sainz finally manages to beat a guess.
The PTPC forecast after Brazil
Name Forecast +/- thegforcemaybewithyou1936,5 0,6 Makarias 1898,1 5,4 fisichella_2001 1896,6 1,6 KWSN-DSM 1893,0 -4,4 RaikkonenFan96 1882,3 -1,9 DutchQuicksilver 1875,2 -3,7 wattoroos 1858,1 4,4 Bleu 1854,2 -5,7 Apex 1852,6 -9,3 Kev00 1849,2 0,4 scheivlak 1844,3 -3,6 GTA 1821,5 5,0 M2000-5 1820,9 -4,3 Marklar 1818,1 5,4 Grayson 1817,1 -1,6 AcuraF1 1815,0 -9,9 mark f1 1804,2 -5,7 Brawn BGP 001 1793,4 1,8 sladealonso 1790,3 1,9 f1paul 1788,5 6,7 noikeee 1785,0 5,4 SpaceHorseParty 1775,1 2,2 markelov74 1774,1 -2,6 Costaz 1756,9 -5,4 Barty 1746,6 -6,2The final forecast managed to predict the final standings rather well after already knowing how 95.2% of the season had unfolded.
The best guesses on each driver
X # ! Y Hami 408 400 noikeee Vett 320 314 fisichella_2001 Räik 251 210 thegforcemaybewithyou Vers 249 246 Bleu Bott 247 241 f1paul Ricc 170 180 Barty Hülk 69 69 Makarias Pere 62 63 Costaz Magn 56 57 wattoroos Sain 53 54 Brawn BGP 001 Alon 50 50 KWSN-DSM Ocon 49 50 Grayson Lecl 39 15 Apex Gros 37 36 or 38: five players Gasl 29 30 wattoroos Vand 12 20 GTA, M2000-5, thegforcemaybewithyou Eric 9 10 Barty Stro 6 6 GTA Hart 4 4 SpaceHorseParty Siro 1 0 or 2: f1paul, M2000-5 Kubi 0 0 everyone bar Costaz and KWSN-DSMFour spot on nonzero guesses this year, compared to twelve in 2017.
Reality check on some of our predictions
Popularity Poll WCC prediction:
Team Pred Off Merc 636 + 19 RBR 499 - 80 Ferr 450 +121 Rena 150 - 28 McLa 138 - 76 FoIn 108 + 3 Haas 74 + 19 Will 32 - 25 STR 28 + 5 Saub 6 + 42A + in the "off" column means the prediction was outscored.
Four years in a row now Williams has ended up disappointing us.
Teammate battles: Which driver is expected to outscore his teammate?
Owner Owned Comment <- = -> Alon 25 0 0 Vand Correct Vett 25 0 0 Räik Correct Hami 24 0 1 Bott Correct Vers 23 1 1 Ricc Correct Lecl 21 3 1 Eric Correct Gasl 20 5 0 Hart Correct Hülk 18 2 5 Sain Correct Gros 17 3 5 Magn Wrong Ocon 16 5 4 Pere Wrong Stro 12 4 9 Siro CorrectWe got two of the more uncertain matchups guessed wrong. Not too bad.
Thank you for participating! Have a nice offseason and welcome back in 2019!
