74 replies to this topic

[Quickshifter]

2019 will have new aero regulations, higher fuel allowance, new driver weight rules and more conservative tyre selections from pirelli.

 

Mercedes are not standing still. Ferrari made a good step in performance in 2018 and they look to do the same in 2019.

 

Redbull has a new engine partner and will be interesting to see how their season pans out in 2019. 

 

Mclaren have a new technical structure in place. They switched to 2019 probably the earliest of all teams. They had a fundamental issue where no matter what they did they could not control the front tyre wake effectively. They claim to have solved the issue for 2019. With a new technical structure and an all new car which will be a departure from MCL33, how will they do in 2019?

 

Renault are developing a new ICE for 2019 and have made noises about making good gains both on chassis and engine. Will be interesting to see what sort of performance step they will make.

 

Force India (Racing point) have improved funding but one cannot overlook the tumultuous period where they were on the verge of extinction. So how will that affect their 2019 car?

 

Haas and Toro Rosso have the maximum allowed parts from Ferrari and  Redbull. How will their challengers turn out?

 

Sauber made a huge step up, probably the biggest relative jump from 2017 to 2018. What sort of a performance gain will they manage to achieve with their 2019 car?

 

Williams are a big unknown and have had funding issues. They are circumspect about their chances in 2019. 

 

[goldenboy]

I think the biggest potential for an improvement on 2018 gap to leaders is probably Renault. That's not saying much though as red bull were so far ahead, that even if RB don't improve much they can still beat Renault.

Biggest chance for upsetting merc or ferrari could only be red bull though. But I don't find that likely. More likely they have around the same gap but Renault team close in on them.

Edited by goldenboy, 19 January 2019 - 07:05.

[PayasYouRace]

I voted for Renault as I just think they have the ingredients to make the next step.

 

But I'd hope for Williams. Their run during the hybrid era has generally been strong and last year was such a disappointment.

[Maxioos]

It should be Williams, it's easiest when coming from far back, look at Sauber this year. But if Honda delivers, it could be STR. I don't expect one will join top 3, that difference is too big i think, but, i would like to see teams join the top, who i don't care, just more teams fighting for podium would be great.

[TheGoldenStoffel]

I think (and hope) it'll be McLaren. They've had an undeveloped and flawed car for much of the season and have switched their focus to their 2019 car very early on. 

[Peter Perfect]

Voted TR as they'll have the RB backend and as much else as can be legally transferred.

 

But I'm hoping for Williams... 

[FordFiesta]

Is Newey still "only" quite engaged (70-80%) or is he again full throttle at it (like he was between 2009-13)? If the latter, then yes, why not to expect a big step?

I don't know why but McLaren could jump to fifth place? An ex-Porsche man (will Porsche eventually buy McLaren in a few years?), maybe a new giant sponsor on board (Coca-Cola (?)). Hopeful ingredients?

[Yamamoto]

Now that Alonso's left it will probably be Mclaren, just to spite him.

[DutchQuicksilver]

In terms of pace probably Renault, but it wil still leave them with fourth in the championship. So, in terms of championship position, probably McLaren. Surely they won’t produce a dog of a car for a fifth year in a row?

And indeed. Alonso’s gone, so probably McLaren’s car will be great

[jonpollak]

Now that Blanka has stopped competing I’ve kinda lost track but I’d guess Mariya LASITSKENE. ???

Jp

[krapmeister]

Dunno JP - reckon Ivana Španović is probably in with a good shout...

[Quickshifter]

Relatively speaking Williams and Mclaren have the biggest room for improvement. However Mclaren have much better resources. Mclaren can only go in one direction in terms of car performance so do Williams but Williams have funding issues despite aid from Mercedes and Kubica sponsorship.

Renault in terms of car performance was 5th in 2018 but they did less mistakes and put their weekends together effectively. They too will look to make a jump.

Mercedes and Ferrari will still improve significantly as they always do with the might of their resources.

Redbull will be hard to predict with a new engine partner. In terms of Performance as a package they still be well ahead of midfield imho but will they close up to the top two, stand still or fall back? That is very hard to know.

[noikeee]

In theory, on paper, it's Renault due to the incremental investment in recent years with stability, but these changes in pecking order often are more unexpected than predictable or planned.

Also even if Renault gain like 7 tenths per lap over everyone else, they still will be largely in the same position not having caught up the top 3 teams, so it's very possible they might make the most gains of all yet not really "feel" like it.

[pdac]

It should be Williams, it's easiest when coming from far back, look at Sauber this year. But if Honda delivers, it could be STR. I don't expect one will join top 3, that difference is too big i think, but, i would like to see teams join the top, who i don't care, just more teams fighting for podium would be great.

 

It should most definitely be Williams or McLaren. Both are performing well below the standard that many think they should be at. For Williams, there really isn't anywhere to go but up.

 

The big unknown, of course, is the PU situation. Personally, I think Mercedes and Ferrari will be a cut above the rest, but who will win out between Renault and Honda .. and following on, who will win out between the Renault-powered teams and the Honda-powered teams.

[HP]

Torn between Renault and McLaren. Voted McLaren, because of the leadership issues at Renault.

[noikeee]

Torn between Renault and McLaren. Voted McLaren, because of the leadership issues at Renault.

Leadership issues?

As far as I know, there's no leadership issues, the only "problem" is the leader is Cyril who is unpopular here (perhaps rightly so, but still...)

[noikeee]

Erm, nevermind, I missed the news, just read it in the Ricciardo to Renault thread.

[NixxxoN]

Should be McLaren:

1) The renault engine should be quite a lot better

2) The car design should be optimized for the Renault engine unlike the 2018 season car that was a frankenstein.

[Nonesuch]

If it's not Renault, something is wrong there. McLaren has run out of the last tiny excuses they had left, so if they continue to fail it's DEFCON 2 at Woking.

 

I'm hoping it's Sauber. Regular best of the rest? Why not! Make it so.

 

Ferrari made a good step in performance in 2018 and they look to do the same in 2019

 

Based on what? There are many unknowns for next year, and if anything Ferrari trailed off towards the end of 2018.

[johnwilliamdavies]

Don't understand why there isn't more love for Toro Rosso. Last year they were on a small budget running a new engine for the first time. This year they'll basically be running a Red Bull (haven't even bothered to replace their lead designer who left), engine will be better than the start of last year, and the drivers are decent: Kyvat is on the level of a Grosjean/Magnussen/Sainz and Albon was  impressive last year.

 

See no reason why they can't do a Haas.

[BRG]

Don't understand why there isn't more love for Toro Rosso.

Perhaps because people recognise that TR will be sacrificed on the altar of the great god Verstappen.  They are his test team and will probably use far more than 6 engines over the year. It is hard to make an impact with a 50 grid place penalty.

[Bleu]

I would say McLaren, but that's because they were so awful last year. More space to improve.

[Bloggsworth]

Should be McLaren:

1) The renault engine should be quite a lot better

2) The car design should be optimized for the Renault engine unlike the 2018 season car that was a frankenstein.

 

McLaren's mistake last year was not to leave well enough alone. In '17 the Mclaren was arguably one of the best handling cars on the grid. They should have kept as much of the aero alone as possible and concentrated on adapting the engine to a good chassis but, no, they tried to change too many things at once and ended up in a cul-de-sac.

Edited by Bloggsworth, 19 January 2019 - 17:36.

[PayasYouRace]

It's odd that while Williams and McLaren both last won a Grand Prix in 2012, their perceptions as teams seem opposite to their actual performances since then. McLaren are often still considered the "big team" that is struggling while Williams are seen as the small backmarker. Yet, Williams have had more podium finishes (15-2), higher WCC constructor's (3rd twice - 5th twice) and higher average WCC placing (5.83 - 6.67).

[sopa]

Well, the worse any team has recently been, the more it's possible to improve, right? Unlikely Ferrari or Mercedes is going to be the most improved team in 2019, unless one of them utterly dominates.

 

Another question would be, which team would be most improved in terms of WCC position. From that point of view Renault is not going to move upwards and I find it unlikely McLaren can improve on their 6th either, they are actually in danger of losing ground there.

 

Looking at last year's WCC order, obviously Sauber and Williams stand a pretty decent chance of moving upwards, but only because last year their WCC position wasn't particularly good.

[InSearchOfThe]

I believe the most pressure is on Renault and Abiteboul. Especially if Haas is battling a factory team for 4th place again.

 

I'd like to see Honda make major strides. Although Max's ego would be unbearable if he wins the WDC.

 

 

[NixxxoN]

McLaren's mistake last year was not to leave well enough alone. In '17 the Mclaren was arguably one of the best handling cars on the grid. They should have kept as much of the aero alone as possible and concentrated on adapting the engine to a good chassis but, no, they tried to change too many things at once and ended up in a cul-de-sac.

 

Because the honda was smaller than Renault, the power was very lacking but the chasis design was fine, but in 2017 changing to the Renault altered completely the balance of the car, and they thought it would be fine, but no, it was a design disaster with a huge flaw that could not be solved.

[Nonesuch]

McLaren are often still considered the "big team" that is struggling

 

McLaren is, or was, a big team based on its spending. Most teams that spend a lot of money do at least reasonably well.

 

McLaren instead has been one of the the rarely seen Big Backmarker teams.

[FLB]

I voted Renault as well. I just hope The Carlos Ghosn Affair won't upset the team structure or what was planned. Thierry Koskas, who was supposed to be the President of Renault Sport, has left the Group for unknown reasons. Jérôme Stoll, who was supposed to leave, will thus remain in place:

 

https://www.autohebd...ing-200404.html (en francais)

[noikeee]

McLaren is, or was, a big team based on its spending. Most teams that spend a lot of money do at least reasonably well.

McLaren instead has been one of the the rarely seen Big Backmarker teams.

That, and the works status they had with Honda up until pretty recently (it's been an absolute lifetime since Williams last were a works team); and the fact that even in that season 2012 when they both last won, McLaren was fighting for the title, as they did regularly in previous years, whilst Williams simply won a random weird outlier one-off race. The last time Williams actually fought for the championship was 16 years ago...

[Dolph]

I believe Renault, McLaren and Williams all have the potential to move up the order. However, Renault cleary has the strongest drivers, whilst McLaren have lost their lead driver. I can see Renault as the clear 4th best team on speed and possibly 3rd best in terms of points as Honda reliability is still smth of a big question mark, especially with Red Bull packaging being a question mark as well.

[RacingGreen]

New rules are not so different from the old rules so I don't see a team coming up with something like Brawn GP did and upsetting the order. That means that the best resourced teams (Mercedes, Ferrari & Red Bull) are likely to pull further away from the pack. Given Mercedes are the most stable in terms of management, PU supply and driver line up my vote went to Brackley/Brixworth.

 

Of the others Renault / Nissan group have major boardroom problems at the moment and will have to see if F1 resourcing is a priority, but I suspect it won't be.....and haven't they just lost their head of F1 only a few days after him starting the job?

 

The other sleeping giant, McLaren, just lost their star driver and have now statistically the teams worst ever driver line up in a rookie and a Red Bull/Renault wash out, so I can't see them making giant strides up the grid.  

 

Similarly Racing Point have swapped Ocon for Stroll - not the best driver swap I can think of, so can't see how that will improve things, although hopefully more stable finances may make a big difference.

 

Williams - well they are a basket case. I have a lot of respect for Paddy Lowe but not convinced he has the right back of the field/ limited resources mentality.

 

Sauber and Haas are Ferrari B-teams, and that limits their progress. While Kimi may reinvigorate moral at Sauber post LeClerc's move, Haas sound like they are fed up with the sport .

 

and I think that only leave Toro-Rosso - another B-team. Not sure what Kvyat is doing back there other than selling soft drink to the Russians. Still the team having the same PU as Red Bull again has to be good for their chances. 

Edited by RacingGreen, 20 January 2019 - 04:58.

[restless]

pace vs end of 2018 - McLaren

place in constructorship - Zauber/TR

Absolute pace Renault (closer to top 3)

[Beamer]

McLaren, as the massively under performed last year. (And they finally got rid of the burden of the always positive alonso energy )

[Maxioos]

I believe the most pressure is on Renault and Abiteboul. Especially if Haas is battling a factory team for 4th place again.
 
I'd like to see Honda make major strides. Although Max's ego would be unbearable if he wins the WDC.

I don't think his ego will change. I'm quite sure he already believes he's the best on the grid. It's possible more visible because more in press conference etc. But think can't increase above current level.

It's your interpretation and value/truthiness of his words and action that categorizes it as "ego" and you have a negative feeling or thinking about "ego". While for him and people who agree with him (like Alonso with the Spa/Kimi defending, for some Max had ego, while Max and Alonso say, he didn't do anything wrong) it's just telling the truth as they see it and self confidence about own look at it.

[BuddyHolly]

Voted Renault as I learned my lesson voting for McLaren last season.

Knowing my luck, it'll be damn Mercedes though.

[BalanceUT]

98 votes thus far and zero for Haas. 

 

Haas exceeded expectations every season thus far. 

 

This season, it seems, just showing up on the grid will exceed expectations... 

 

I admit I didn't vote for Haas because I think it likely they will stay in their position, maybe improve a little, which is what I guess others are thinking, too. 

 

I considered voting for Williams simply because of regression to the mean. Last year being an outlier means they are likely to improve. 

 

I voted for Sauber because of their end of year form last year and their new drivers. 

 

The poll has a flaw because 'jump' suggests improvement. Since constructor ranking is a zero sum situation, who moves down? Maybe it should have been 'biggest change in position', because if that were the poll, I'd vote for Red Bull to drop a good bit, like 3 spaces. 

Edited by BalanceUT, 20 January 2019 - 15:03.

[Donkey]

Mclaren purely because they have been building massively hyped flops since 2009, surely they must get it right sooner or later?

Last season was pretty pathetic really without being able to blame their performance on not having a race-winning engine. A bit embarrassing after all the claims that they had one of the best chassis during theHonda years.

Edited by Donkey, 20 January 2019 - 14:46.

[MustangSally]

98 votes thus far and zero for Haas. 

 

Haas exceeded expectations every season thus far. 

 

This season, it seems, just showing up on the grid will exceed expectations... 

 

 

Certainly Haas should have finished best of the rest last year, which is pretty remarkable for a new team. The biggest points dropper appeared to be the driver pairing, which they declined to change.  Odd, since a leg up in that area could see them front of midfield again.

 

Given a fair wind, Force India should also have finished higher. The points reset hid the fact that the team was just seven points shy of Renault at the end of a cash starved, life-threatening year. 

 

The above suggests that Renault really  isn't making the progress it should. Many were sceptical that the corporate management triumvirate would be nimble enough for F1 and maybe that is the problem. Certainly Mr Vasseur, who 'just couldn't work like that' , has really turned things around at Sauber. 

 

Of the rest, I think Sauber will continue to climb. It has Alfa money, the momentum and the morale, while Kimi and Giovinazzi will be wonderful entertainment value. I wondered last year whether the team would struggle after parting company with Zander, but in fact development was ace. So, they get my vote.  

 

McLaren and Williams both appear to have more weaknesses than strengths at this time so may well be simply treading water while on the road back to respectability.  And STR is a great team but doesn't get the support it deserves. 

[jstrains]

Red Bull... unfortunately backwards but I hope I am wrong

[lustigson]

Red Bull... unfortunately backwards but I hope I am wrong

 

My thought. Except for the last part.  

[Nonesuch]

98 votes thus far and zero for Haas. 

 

Haas exceeded expectations every season thus far. 

 

This season, it seems, just showing up on the grid will exceed expectations... 

 

Where do we expect Haas to jump to, though? They finished 2018 in 5th place, and if they had run a smoother operation 4th would have been on the cards.

 

I can't see Haas doing better than that in 2019. Not with all these big spending, manufacturer-backed teams ahead of them.

[masa90]

Hopefully Sauber, Renault and WIlliams

[Spillage]

I've gone for Renault, more in hope than expectation. In reality I think it's likely to be another season disputes between Mercedes and Ferrari, with Red Bull picking up a win here and there and the rest fighting for scraps.

[TF110]

I voted Williams. I think they'll make the biggest step forward in terms of finishing positions. Then probably Toro Rosso because of the fact that it's probably 50% red bull and I feel like Honda will get it together.

[Loosenut]

With STR and Redbull running the same engines now, shouldn't we expect STR to benefit a fair bit from some of RBs hand-me-downs?

[GiorgioF1]

Williams. They got so many things wrong last year that I wont be surprised they will be in the midfield there or therabout from the start of the season. McLaren will recover too but they are without a Merc donkey at the back and the Fernando magic.

Edited by GiorgioF1, 21 January 2019 - 21:38.

[MikeV1987]

Really hoping McLaren and Renault can make a leap and get reasonably close to the top teams.

[Heyli]

With STR and Redbull running the same engines now, shouldn't we expect STR to benefit a fair bit from some of RBs hand-me-downs?

That was my thinking as well. They have quite some potential for improvement. 

[messy]

Williams. In recent history they tend to come out strongly when the regulations change (2009, 2014) and I think what Charles Leclerc showed this year with Sauber holds true there as well - having a proper driver makes a difference. God, they had a rubbish pairing last season. Now they've got George Russell, a guy in a lot of ways similar to Leclerc, in a hurry having blazed a trail through the junior ranks.

To be honest, if they're not instantly pushed back into the midfield pack on that alone something's wrong.