In psychology there’s an interesting bias called "overconfidence effect", wherein people subjective confidence in their judgements is reliably greater than the objective accuracy of those judgements, especially when confidence is high. The data show that confidence systematically exceeds accuracy, meaning people are more sure that they are correct than they deserve to be. For instance when people provide a 90 percent confidence interval around their estimate of some number, the truth often falls inside their confidence intervals less than 50 percent of the time.
So I would like to apply this concept to our WCC predictions, seeing if we can overcome the confidence effect and gauge correctly our accuracy.
Can we correctly predict the WCC standings with a 90% confidence level? The goal would be to provide for each constructor a range with a 90% probability to be correct, that is to get 9 predictions right out of 10. If we get all 10 predictions right, it will mean the ranges we chose were too large; if we get less than 9 right, they are too narrow.
Here is my take:
Mercedes: 1-2
Ferrari: 1-3
Red Bull: 1-3
Renault: 3-5
Racing Point: 3-7
Alfa Romeo: 5-8
Haas: 5-8
Toro Rosso: 6-10
McLaren: 6-10
Williams: 7-10