AMuS published a long run analysis. Here a summary, most of it is known by now I assume
-the margin of error is at around 7 tenths depending on which engine mode and fuel load was used, as mentioned race sims are less represantive this year than in the past
-teams can usually assume the fuel load based on best/worst case scenarios on the GPS (a quick final sector for example indicates less fuel), something journalists cant.
-Leclerc had the quickest race sim, 12 seconds ahead of Ricciardo, 19 ahead of Bottas, but he used 3 C2 tyres (using a different tyre in the first stint costed Bottas alone 9 seconds) and the last stint was approached in a way he wouldnt have approached it in reality. Keep in mind that Bottas/Leclerc did real race sims, Ricciardo went into the garage every time. While in theory this could mean that the stint is not representative (refuelling, setup changes etc) Mercedes was very impressed by Renault.
-Vettel and Hamilton are four tenths apart, but very hard to compare (Hamilton did a 4 stop race on three different compounds, something Vettel did in the first week as well)
-Red Bull is not appearing impressive which is weird considering that Verstappen looks confident (and he is usually a bad actor). His first stint was between Ferrari and Merc, his 2nd stint 0.2 s behind Bottas and 0.7 s behind Leclerc.
-Magnussen's race sim was great on the C2 tyres. 2nd stint was 0.2s off Leclerc and the final stint was fantastic. Car struggles with softer tyres though (see 1st stint) and team admits this as well. Steiner promises to improve and they have to since Melbourne will mostly be on C3/4.
-The soft tyres could generally be a issue this year, the C3 tyre is already having a lot deg in Barcelona. As always Red Bull seems the best on the tyres, while it appears like Mercedes has better tyre management than Ferrari this year. It seems like Ferrari prefered to have a quick car with which you can build a gap at the beginning and then just defend your lead.
-On long runs Alfa cant keep up with Renault and Haas. Toro Rosso is hard to judge. The first race sim was slower than McLaren, the second was the 2nd best but it was stopped after 36 laps. The truth is most likely somewhere between those two.
-Force India is better over the race distance than over one lap, but still 6 seconds shy of Alfa. McLaren improved in Week 2 but is in the race sim 20 seconds behind Alfa.
-Williams is disastrous. Over 4 minutes behind Leclerc, would have been lapped twice.https://www.auto-mot...rennsimulation/
Edited by Marklar, 05 March 2019 - 23:47.