111 replies to this topic

[w1Y]

QUALY

Ferrari
Merc

Red Bull

Haas
Alfa
Renault
Mclaren
torro Rosso
Racing Point

Williams



RACE

Ferrari

Merc/Red Bull

Haas
Renault
Mclaren/Alfa
Torro Rosso
Racing Point




Williams

Edited by w1Y, 03 March 2019 - 22:08.

[DILLIGAF]

For Melbourne

 

1. Ferrari

2. Mercedes 

3. Red Bull

4. Renault

5. Haas

6. Alfa Romeo

7. Torro Rosso

8. McLaren  

9. Racing Point

10. Williams

[Wuzak]

Ferrari - I am not sure why everybody is so happy about this, Vettel has already had enough dominant cars to last him a lifetime.

 

Maybe because they are sick of Lewis having a dominant car and would like to see a change?

 

Or that it should mean real competition over the season as Mercedes strive to catch up and Ferrari try to stay ahead.

[Nemo1965]

I think the race-order is going to be Ferrari-Red Bull-Mercedes... and that the most interesting fight is going to between LeClerc and Verstappen. Not that I think that LeClerc is going to be straight out of the box faster than Vettel. But in straight fights, on the track. Psychologically, Max has Vettel already in his pocket. 

[AlexPrime]

I Psychologically, Max has Vettel already in his pocket. 

I wouldn't say so, it's a bit like Alonso was cautious of Montoya, as he was a risky driver.

[Rinehart]

Ferrari

Mercedes

Red Bull

Renault

 

McLaren

Alfa

Hass

TR

 

RP

Williams 

 

*Based on resource based competition theory, not testing times! 

[Nonesuch]

Psychologically, Max has Vettel already in his pocket. 

 

 

Based on what?

 

Verstappen has drawn the ire of this fellow drivers because he, being in a position to win a handful of races but not compete for the championship, could afford to be completely reckless and adopt a Senna-esque 'crash or give up' stance. If Red Bull-Honda can challenge for the title, that attitude will have to go. Fast. Another shambolic performance like the first half of last year will wreck any chance of a title campaign.

[Cliff]

Based on what?

Verstappen has drawn the ire of this fellow drivers because he, being in a position to win a handful of races but not compete for the championship, could afford to be completely reckless and adopt a Senna-esque 'crash or give up' stance. If Red Bull-Honda can challenge for the title, that attitude will have to go. Fast. Another shambolic performance like the first half of last year will wreck any chance of a title campaign.

Based on whenever they both had cars to fight with each other, Max came out on top. It’s no surprise Vettel gets red mist whenever he’s sharing a piece of tarmac with Max.

[statman]

To start off the season at least

1) Ferrari
2) Merc + 0.2
3) Redbull + 0.4

4) Hass + 0.9
5) Renault + 1

6) Alfa + 1.2
7) Torro + 1.3
8) McLaren + 1.3
9) Racing Point +.1.5

10) Williams + 3 days

In terms of winners

Drivers Champion: Lewis
Constructors Champion: Merc

 

This would be my list.

[Marklar]

Based on whenever they both had cars to fight with each other, Max came out on top. It’s no surprise Vettel gets red mist whenever he’s sharing a piece of tarmac with Max.

Vettel got last year red mist regardless whether Verstappen was involved or not.

Besides, Max came always "on top" when fighting against other top drivers simply because he wasnt driving for championship results while others did it to a bigger extent (although you can argue that Vettel did a terrible job in this regard, but that''s besides the point).

You are not coming "out on top" when you crash and get penalized for this, otherwise it would be a quite easy claim.

That being said, no clue if Verstappen has "psychologically Vettel in his pocket". Maybe he has, but I see no evidence.

[Arundo]

1. Ferrari

2. Mercedes 

3. Red Bull

4. Alfa Romeo

5. Mclaren

6. Renault

7. Haas

8. Toro Rosso  

9. Racing Point

10. Williams

[Rinehart]

I think in a title fight that had Hamilton, Vettel and Max involved, Max and Vettel would crash into each other a lot and Hamilton would benefit. 

[Mosrite]

Well, for Melbourne, it is just the first race and even Red Bull could pull off a win.
As for the general order, nothing has changed at the top in regards to winning

It will be general knowledge with the media and Toto repeating every race weekend that the Ferrari is the fastest car and the one to beat, but Lewis will
 

Most race victories: Hamilton & Mercedes
runner up: Vettel & Ferrari

3rd: Verstappen & Red Bull

[DutchQuicksilver]

Based on whenever they both had cars to fight with each other, Max came out on top. It’s no surprise Vettel gets red mist whenever he’s sharing a piece of tarmac with Max.

Verstappen also hasn’t shown to perform under pressure. So far, he’s had loads of incidents in the beginning of a season (when there’s a mathematical chance for all top drivers at a shot for the title) and has only really performed when the pressure was off (knocked out of a championship fight).

Let’s wait and see how he handles the pressure when he’s actually in a championship fight before comparing him to Vettel.

[Nonesuch]

Based on whenever they both had cars to fight with each other, Max came out on top. It’s no surprise Vettel gets red mist whenever he’s sharing a piece of tarmac with Max.

 

That's not the case, and in some of the situations where Verstappen did 'come out on top', like in PR China last year, it was only because he torpedoed the Ferrari and damaged it significantly.

 

Verstappen and Vettel have both been in way too many incidents, that their meetings end badly is very predictable. Both also have a tendency to lose their composure in dealing with many other drivers, that is not unique to this combination.

 

If Verstappen wants to be more than a winner of a handful of races, he's going to need to play the championship game. That involves a lot fewer crashes, and a lot more patience on track. We'll see if he's up to it.

[F1Lurker]

1) Ferrari/Mercedes [but Lewis will win]
3) Reb Bull [weaker and less reliable PU]
4) Renault/McLaren/Alfa Romeo/Haas [Strength of the teams about equal, advantage will fluctuate]
8) Racing Point [might join third group later in season]
9) Torro Rosso
10) Williams

[w1Y]

If it is close then having clean reliable races is going to be fundamental.

Also expect more safety cars this year with those massive front wings

[alframsey]

I wouldn't say so, it's a bit like Alonso was cautious of Montoya, as he was a risky driver.

I agree and think this whole "Max is already in everyone's head and they won't challenge him" narrative is BS, they will race wheel to wheel with him but will have a different approach to Max as they do with each driver as he does seem to be a bit unpredictable. I say this a fan and admirer of the way Max drives and he is probably my second driver behind Hamilton now, I love how he races, but the idea he has Lewis and Seb in his pocket is a nonsense.

[V8 Fireworks]

Ferrari - I am not sure why everybody is so happy about this, Vettel has already had enough dominant cars to last him a lifetime.

 

 

Don't worry about that, LeClerc will beat Vettel easily.    

 

LeClerc for WDC? 

Edited by V8 Fireworks, 04 March 2019 - 12:31.

[Requiem84]

I agree and think this whole "Max is already in everyone's head and they won't challenge him" narrative is BS, they will race wheel to wheel with him but will have a different approach to Max as they do with each driver as he does seem to be a bit unpredictable. I say this a fan and admirer of the way Max drives and he is probably my second driver behind Hamilton now, I love how he races, but the idea he has Lewis and Seb in his pocket is a nonsense.

 

Rosberg displayed the same behavior with Max on track (Canada '16, Hockenheim '16 to name too situations). Sure there was no hard evidence that Max got in Rosberg's head, but when Rosberg retired we found out Max was deeply in his head and that he was ******* his pants when he had to overtake Max at Abu Dhabi 2016 to win the title... 

 

There never is evidence that a certain driver is in someone's head, after all we can't look into heads can we . But Vettel is somehow extra erratic when it comes to Verstappen and tends to lose out when they have a fight. With Hamilton there only is 1 circumstance where it was clear Hamilton was treating Verstappen cautiously (Austin, 2018). 

 

Back to the running order expecations...

 

Ferrari

 

0.4 Merc 

0.5 RB

 

0.8 Renault

0.9 Haas / Alfa / Toro Rosso

1.0 Mclaren

1.1 Racing Point

 

1.5 Williams

[Nemo1965]

 

Based on what?

 

Verstappen has drawn the ire of this fellow drivers because he, being in a position to win a handful of races but not compete for the championship, could afford to be completely reckless and adopt a Senna-esque 'crash or give up' stance. If Red Bull-Honda can challenge for the title, that attitude will have to go. Fast. Another shambolic performance like the first half of last year will wreck any chance of a title campaign.

 

Based on the many, many instances where Vettel was moaning about Verstappen even if the latter did not do anything wrong, just passed him or kept him of passing. Kimi has the same problem. So many times they seemed to forget all basic defending skils when Verstappen showed up in their mirror, even IF Verstappen just does conventional moves.

 

Rosberg respected Verstappen, was weary of him, but took the fight to him in Abu Dhabi. Hamilton will have no problem in that regard, neither had or will Ricciardo. I am curious about LeClerc, but I think - because they know each other of old - that LeClerc wont be bothered so much by (if I may phrase it grandiosely)  'The Verstappen-effect'.

 

I made this post because I am of the impression that many think the running order of the cars is just based on the strength of the cars. If that were true, were was Bottas last year? Verstappen is a scoundrel, that is why he is amusing and disruptive next to being fast. The running order in Melbourne could be Ferrari, Ferrari, Red Bull, Red Bull, Mercedes. Or Mercedes, Red Bull, Ferrari - DEPENDING who is driving that specific Mercedes, Red Bull or Ferrari. 

 

(And who met whom on the track, he-he-he)

Edited by Nemo1965, 04 March 2019 - 12:57.

[Requiem84]

Based on the many, many instances where Vettel was moaning about Verstappen even if the latter did not do anything wrong, just passed him or kept him of passing. Kimi has the same problem. So many times they seemed to forget all basic defending skils when Verstappen showed up in their mirror, even IF Verstappen just does conventional moves.

 

Rosberg respected Verstappen, was weary of him, but took the fight to him in Abu Dhabi. Hamilton will have no problem in that regard, neither had or will Ricciardo. I am curious about LeClerc, but I think - because they know each other of old - that LeClerc wont be bothered so much by (if I may phrase it grandiosely)  'The Verstappen-effect'.

 

I made this post because I am of the impression that many think the running order of the cars is just based on the strength of the cars. If that were true, were was Bottas last year? Verstappen is a scoundrel, that is why he is amusing and disruptive next to being fast. The running order in Melbourne could be Ferrari, Ferrari, Red Bull, Red Bull, Mercedes. Or Mercedes, Red Bull, Ferrari - DEPENDING who is driving that specific Mercedes, Red Bull or Ferrari. 

 

(And who met whom on the track, he-he-he)

 

Well, this thread is about the strength of the cars...

[pup]

Mercedes

Ferrari

Red Bull

McLaren

Renault

Alfa

Haas

Torro Rosso

Racing Point

Williams

 

Like last year, I suspect Mercedes has been hiding their pace in testing.  I think the battle will be closer this year, but Vettel will lose more points to Leclerc than he did to Kimi, and so I suspect the pressure will get the better of him again.

 

Red Bull will be weaker than last year, but still above the mid pack.  However, unreliability and their second driver will lead to DNFs and penalties that will allow the midfield to almost catch them by the end.  But they'll get a lucky win at some race and good lord we'll never hear the end of it.  

 

McLaren will start off solidly midfield, but they've got a better team, better engine and better car to work with this year; and so I think they'll out develop those around them and possibly as early as Spain we'll see them clearly in charge of that group.  I think they may even see a podium if they have a lucky race.  

 

I think Renault will be ahead of McLaren at first, but then drop behind later in the season.  I expect some excitement from Ricciardo in a few races and, like McLaren, perhaps even a lucky podium finish.

 

I suspect the second test showed Alfa's true form, but they'll probably qualify well.  And we'll get some good radio from Kimi regardless and that's all anyone really cares about.

 

Haas will be Hass.  A decently quick car but they'll be known mostly for their drivers punting others off the track and then whining about it.

 

STR will have a fairly quick qually pace but not race pace and I don't think their drivers are up to the task.

 

Racing Point's ace was their leadership and organization, which I think is gone.  Also Perez is too hot headed to graciously take a back seat to daddy's boy.  I expect clashes on track and off.

 

Williams 

Edited by pup, 04 March 2019 - 14:18.

[Nemo1965]

Variance, because the OP writes about running order, not cars necessarily:

 

1. Mercedes with Hamilton

2. Red Bull with Verstappen

3. Vettel with Mercedes

4. LeClerc with Ferrari

5. Ghasli with Red Bull

6. Ricciardo with Renault

7.Hulkenberg with Renault

8. Grosjean with Haas

9. Perez with Racing Point

10. Sainz with McLaren

[alframsey]

Mercedes

Ferrari

Red Bull

McLaren

Renault

Alfa

Haas

Torro Rosso

Racing Point

Williams

 

Like last year, I suspect Mercedes has been hiding their pace in testing.  I think the battle will be closer this year, but Vettel will lose more points to Leclerc than he did to Kimi, and so I suspect the pressure will get the better of him again.

 

Red Bull will be weaker than last year, but still above the mid pack.  However, unreliability and their second driver will lead to DNFs and penalties that will allow the midfield to almost catch them by the end.  But they'll get a lucky win at some race and good lord we'll never hear the end of it.  

 

McLaren will start off solidly midfield, but they've got a better team, better engine and better car to work with this year; and so I think they'll out develop those around them and possibly as early as Spain we'll see them clearly in charge of that group.  I think they may even see a podium if they have a lucky race.  

 

I think Renault will be ahead of McLaren at first, but then drop behind later in the season.  I expect some excitement from Ricciardo in a few races and, like McLaren, perhaps even a lucky podium finish.

 

I suspect the second test showed Alfa's true form, but they'll probably qualify well.  And we'll get some good radio from Kimi regardless and that's all anyone really cares about.

 

Haas will be Hass.  A decently quick car but they'll be known mostly for their drivers punting others off the track and then whining about it.

 

STR will have a fairly quick qually pace but not race pace and I don't think their drivers are up to the task.

 

Racing Point's ace was their leadership and organization, which I think is gone.  Also Perez is too hot headed to graciously take a back seat to daddy's boy.  I expect clashes on track and off.

 

Williams 

And why should he? Perez is a proven entity and a very solid racing driver who can snatch some amazing results, while Stroll has no business being in the seat imo. It should be Ocon driving that car and Stroll is only where he is because of his old man. Also, I think RP will be in much better shape than some are suggesting, maybe not right away but after the first three or four races.

[Nonesuch]

Rosberg displayed the same behavior with Max on track (Canada '16, Hockenheim '16 to name too situations). Sure there was no hard evidence that Max got in Rosberg's head, but when Rosberg retired we found out Max was deeply in his head and that he was ******* his pants when he had to overtake Max at Abu Dhabi 2016 to win the title...

 

Rosberg was told he had to overtake the driver singled out for criticism by his fellow drivers over his reckless and erratic behaviour; a driver who furthermore had nothing to lose.

 

When Rosberg described his reaction, that's not Verstappen being 'deeply in his head', that's just Rosberg being smart enough to recognize not all drivers are equally responsible.

 

In preparing his overtake, he had to account for Verstappen's antics. Which he did, in a perfectly executed manner.

 

Edited by Nonesuch, 04 March 2019 - 16:48.

[Booky36]

1. Mercedes

2. Ferrari

3. Renault 

4. RedBull

5. Haas

6. Mclaren

7. Alfa Romeo

8. Toro Rosso  

9. Racing Point

10. Williams

[Marklar]

3. Vettel with Mercedes

Uhhh?

[alframsey]

Uhhh?

Think he meant Vettel with Ferrari tbf, makes most sense. Although to expect RBR to be ahead of the number 1 Ferrari is a push, even expecting Lewis to be ahead in the Merc is questionable even though my gut says they will be at least equal. Cannot see RBR being in the top two on outright pace tbh, they'd be doing amazing to have kept up pace. Especially over the course of a season unless they have a massive upturn in reliability where they can run the PU at full whack and make them last a full season, RBR have no chance at either crown imo and anyone suggesting otherwise is deluded. Yes that definitely includes Marko and his Helmet.

[Marklar]

Think he meant Vettel with Ferrari tbf, makes most sense. 

Poor Bottas not even finishing in the top 10 while his team mate wins the championship? 

[alframsey]

Poor Bottas not even finishing in the top 10 while his team mate wins the championship? 

I know... I guess that says as much about the top ten in this post as needs to be said.

[Nemo1965]

I know... I guess that says as much about the top ten in this post as needs to be said.

 

Touché. Bottas is just not in my head. Silly mistake.

[FullOppositeLock]

 

Rosberg was told he had to overtake the driver singled out for criticism by his fellow drivers over his reckless and erratic behaviour; a driver who furthermore had nothing to lose.

 

When Rosberg described his reaction, that's not Verstappen being 'deeply in his head', that's just Rosberg being smart enough to recognize not all drivers are equally responsible.

 

In preparing his overtake, he had to account for Verstappen's antics. Which he did, in a perfectly executed manner.

 

 

 

Regardless of the reason and whether that was justified or whether you personally like such erratic driving, doesn't your reaction pretty much confirm Max was in Rosberg's head at that stage?

[alframsey]

Touché. Bottas is just not in my head. Silly mistake.

Tbf it was a pretty reasonable top ten I just disagree with your predictions for the sharp end.

[meck01]

1. Ferrari

2. Mercedes 

3. Red Bull

4. Renault

5. Haas

6. Alfa Romeo

7. Mclaren

8. Toro Rosso  

9. Racing Point

10. Williams

 

Hopefully the mid field is closer to the top 3 - or rbr at least.

 

A renault podium or win would be great....and hopefully another team bar mercedes wins the wdc/wcc.

[Nobody]

with my reputation firmly on the line

 

Ferrari
Merc

 

Alfa

Torro Rosso

RB

McLaren

Haas

Renault

 

RP

Williams

Edited by Nobody, 05 March 2019 - 02:29.

[FullOppositeLock]

with my reputation firmly on the line

Ferrari
Merc

Alfa
Torro Rosso
RB
McLaren
Haas
Renault

RP
Williams

Might as well start kissing it goodbye now ;)

[djparky]

Despite the annual BS from Wolff and Hamilton they'll be out front. So in groups

Div 1- Mercedes, Ferrari

RBR- sort of by themselves in 3rd place

Div 2- Haas, Alfa/ Sauber and Renault leading the pack with Racing Force Stroll ( whatever its called) occasionally looking good, McLaren and then Williams adrift at the back

[DutchQuicksilver]

http://gptoday.com/f..._for_Australia/

Perhaps the best prediction about the pecking order so far, from Karun Chandhok. Chandhok is in my regard one of the better pundits who doesn’t let personal affection for a driver or team get the better of him.

[milestone 11]

Biting the bullet here.
Ferrari
Mercedes
Renault
Haas
Red Bull
Alfa
McLaren
Toro Rosso
Racing Point (awful name)
Williams
Subject to amendment after practice.

[Nemo1965]

http://gptoday.com/f..._for_Australia/

Perhaps the best prediction about the pecking order so far, from Karun Chandhok. Chandhok is in my regard one of the better pundits who doesn’t let personal affection for a driver or team get the better of him.

 

Seconded. I would prefer Red Bull to be ahead of Mercedes (just for the fun of it), but I bow before Karuns superior knowledge and info. This part about the Red Bull car and Verstappens driving style I found very interesting:

 

This characteristic of a sharp front end is something that suits Max's style. Right from his first season with Toro Rosso, I remember watching him at pre-season testing and marvelling at his ability to steer the car on the brakes on the way into the corner before opening the steering wheel up at the apex earlier than other people. This helps his rear tyre wear during the acceleration phase of the corner and is something that has been a real bonus for him when it comes to races where he needs to manage the tyres for long stints.

[PayasYouRace]

http://gptoday.com/f..._for_Australia/

Perhaps the best prediction about the pecking order so far, from Karun Chandhok. Chandhok is in my regard one of the better pundits who doesn’t let personal affection for a driver or team get the better of him.

 

Surely we can't know if that's the best prediction until after the season starts.

[Francesc]

1. Mercedes

2. Ferrari

3. Red Bull

4. Haas

5. Renault

6. Force India

7. Mclaren

8. Williams 

9. Alfa Romeo

10. Toro Rosso

[SCUDmissile]

Let's be real here. If you said a car from the rope teams was struggling as much as Mercedes without mentioning their name, people would be concerned and have down as 3rd place etc

But because of the name, folks have to hype them up based on zero evidence.

[Nemo1965]

Surely we can't know if that's the best prediction until after the season starts.

 

Well, if an ex-F1-driver sets himself up at the same corner in Barcelona every year, has sub-rosa contacts with people inside the teams and connects what he saw with what he was told... it probably is a trustworthy prediction.

 

 

Which is not one and the same thing, you are right...

[JG]

World Champions:
Ferrari or Mercedes

Then:
Red Bull and Renault
———————-
Rest fighting for points:
Alfa Romeo
Racing Point
HAAS
McLaren
Toro Rosso
Williams

[ConsiderAndGo]

Let's be real here. If you said a car from the rope teams was struggling as much as Mercedes without mentioning their name, people would be concerned and have down as 3rd place etc

But because of the name, folks have to hype them up based on zero evidence.

Zero evidence ? How about the past 5 seasons where they have shown to be the most ruthless, professional, astute, successful, rigorous, development-heavy team. To write them off, based on testing, is nothing short of moronic.

[UPRC]

1. Ferrari - Big year for Ferrari. They'll look great, and I expect Leclerc to help in the championship by beating Bottas.
2. Mercedes - They're finally going to drop the ball and find themselves playing catch-up a lot.
3. Renault - A big step forward. Their strong driver pairing will help lots.
4. Red Bull - They'll look good, but there will be Honda woes.
5. Alfa Romeo - Giovinazzi + Raikkonen is better than the rest of the midfield by far, plus Ferrari engines.
6. McLaren - I think that they'll move ahead a little bit again. It's honestly overdue.
7. Haas - They'll have great weekends, but lots of stinkers as well. Really inconsistent form.
8. Racing Point - I don't expect them to be bad, but not great either.
9. Williams - Kubica will singlehandedly save them from being on the bottom. They'll still struggle a lot.
10. Toro Rosso - They'll objectively be better than Racing Point and Williams, but be beaten (only slightly) because of Kubica and Perez.

Edited by UPRC, 06 March 2019 - 18:38.

[SCUDmissile]

Zero evidence ? How about the past 5 seasons where they have shown to be the most ruthless, professional, astute, successful, rigorous, development-heavy team. To write them off, based on testing, is nothing short of moronic.

 

That may be used when discussing their title chances in the future. That has no bearing on whether their current car looks good in testing or not.

 

In 2005, Ferrari were the 'most ruthless, professional, astute, successful, rigorous, development-heavy team.' Still didn't mean their car was that good.

[Francesc]

Their car was good. Tyres weren't.