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Place The Points Competition 2019 after Australia


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#1 Makarias

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Posted 17 March 2019 - 10:33

The standings after Australia:

Pos Name                  Tot Latest
1)  Almost everyone       101 101
23) thequadge              99  99
One entry didn't add up to 2121 points: thequadge had 2118 points. At least a couple of those could have been placed on Stroll, but alas...

The entries

The following list shows the maximum, average ("popularity poll") and minimum bets on each driver. Column "Diff" is Popularity Poll difference to 2018.
Name  Max  Pop  Min  Diff
Vett  381  338  289  + 61
Hami  377  324  238  - 32
Lecl  345  283  180  +278
Vers  299  250  170  - 17
Bott  270  215  164  - 65
Gasl  214  155  112  +138
Ricc  149   93   64  -139
Hülk  118   79   50  +- 0
Gros   97   61   37  + 22
Räik   93   57   33  -116
Magn   95   56   27  + 21
Sain  178   45    7  - 26
Pere   80   39   12  - 12
Giov   82   34    8  + 34
Norr  122   30    0  + 30
Kvya   51   21    5  + 21
Stro   40   20    0  +  2
Albo   45   18    3  + 18
Russ    6    2    0  +  2
Kubi    6    1    0  +  1

Popularity Poll WCC prediction:
Team   Pts  Diff
Ferr   621  +171
Merc   539  - 97
RBR    405  - 94
Rena   172  + 22
Haas   117  + 43
Alfa    91  + 85
McLa    75  - 63
RPoi    59  - 49
STR     39  + 11
Will     3  - 29
Preseason testing results get old fast.

If the Popularity Poll turns out to be a 100% correct prediction, the final standings would look like this:
Pos Name              Tot
1)  thegforcemaybewithyou2049
2)  fisichella_2001      2038
3)  scheivlak            2022
4)  wattoroos            2014
5)  DutchQuicksilver     2013
6)  Grayson              2006
7)  sladealonso          2004
8)  noikeee              2001
9)  Barty                1993
10) M2000-5              1992
=   Marklar              1992
12) Bleu                 1991
=   Kev00                1991
14) mark f1              1989
15) Makarias             1974
16) GTA                  1964
17) f1paul               1959
=   KWSN-DSM             1959
19) Brawn BGP 001        1930
20) thequadge            1922
21) Anderis              1877
22) SpaceHorseParty      1829
23) Costaz               1764
Last year gforce and fisichella finished first and third overall. Is average the way to go for success?

How many players have guessed each driver for WDC?
Driver  Players
Vett     15
Hami      6
Lecl      3
Vettel and Leclerc finished equal first in Anderis' entry.

Teammate battles: Which driver is expected to outscore his teammate?
Owner               Owned
     <-     =    ->
Hami  23    0    0  Bott
Vers  23    0    0  Gasl
Pere  22    1    0  stro
Räik  22    0    1  Giov
Ricc  21    0    2  Hülk
Sain  20    1    2  Norr
Vett  20    1    2  Lecl
Kvya  13    1    9  Albo
Gros  12    3    8  Magn
Russ   9    9    5  Kubi
Three teams have interesting teammate battles to look forward to. Only Mercedes has continuity in their driver lineup.
 
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect  Surprise Beat
           %        %     #
Magn     14,3      8,3    0
Bott     11,6      9,2    0
Stro      9,8      4,9    1
Hülk      7,6      5,0    0
Räik      7,0      4,3    0
Vers      6,0      5,0    0
Hami      5,6      4,8    0
Kvya      4,8      1,9    0
Vett      3,5      3,1    0
Lecl      3,5      2,9    0
The excitement is only just beginning.

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2019 this is 23.


Guesses on P1-P5:
Bottas                 Hamilton               Verstappen             Vettel                 Leclerc             
* Forecast      525    * Potential     518    * Potential     515    * Potential     512    * Potential     510
* Potential     525    * Forecast      378    * Forecast      315    M2000-5         381    sladealonso     345
Grayson         270    mark f1         377    Marklar         299    Bleu            378    Anderis         340
GTA             264    M2000-5         358    Makarias        292    Brawn BGP 001   374    thequadge       331
Kev00           255    Bleu            356    Anderis         290    noikeee         365    Brawn BGP 001   322
Barty           250    Makarias        356    scheivlak       288    thequadge       353    f1paul          315
KWSN-DSM        248    Kev00           353    f1paul          286    DutchQuicksilver351    SpaceHorseParty 312
M2000-5         241    Grayson         350    sladealonso     275    GTA             351    noikeee         310
mark f1         240    thequadge       345    Kev00           270    Marklar         349    thegforcemaybewi299
DutchQuicksilver238    GTA             340    wattoroos       268    fisichella_2001 348    Marklar         298
thequadge       228    sladealonso     336    GTA             267    Makarias        345    fisichella_2001 297
Bleu            224    DutchQuicksilver334    thegforcemaybewi266    Barty           342    GTA             290
fisichella_2001 208    fisichella_2001 329    noikeee         265    Anderis         340    Barty           276
thegforcemaybewi208    Barty           326    mark f1         260    Grayson         340    scheivlak       276
Makarias        207    wattoroos       326    DutchQuicksilver253    mark f1         340    mark f1         270
scheivlak       207    thegforcemaybewi317    KWSN-DSM        249    f1paul          329    Grayson         266
sladealonso     205    noikeee         316    M2000-5         248    thegforcemaybewi325    Bleu            263
Costaz          202    scheivlak       315    thequadge       243    sladealonso     322    wattoroos       259
wattoroos       201    KWSN-DSM        309    Brawn BGP 001   234    Kev00           321    Makarias        257
Marklar         200    f1paul          301    fisichella_2001 230    wattoroos       313    DutchQuicksilver256
Brawn BGP 001   189    Marklar         300    Bleu            226    scheivlak       311    M2000-5         251
noikeee         173    Brawn BGP 001   299    Grayson         200    KWSN-DSM        310    KWSN-DSM        250
SpaceHorseParty 167    Costaz          296    SpaceHorseParty 189    Costaz          299    Kev00           242
Anderis         165    SpaceHorseParty 267    Barty           180    SpaceHorseParty 289    * Forecast      210
f1paul          164    Anderis         238    Costaz          170    * Forecast      252    Costaz          180
* Current        25    * Current        18    * Current        15    * Current        12    * Current        10
It'll take a good while before these drivers start nibbling at the lowest of the guesses on them.

Guesses on P6-P10:
Magnussen              Hülkenberg             Räikkönen              Stroll                 Kvyat               
* Potential     508    * Potential     506    * Potential     504    * Potential     502    * Potential     501
* Forecast      168    * Forecast      126    Anderis          93    * Forecast       42    Costaz           51
SpaceHorseParty  95    thequadge       118    * Forecast       84    wattoroos        40    M2000-5          32
KWSN-DSM         84    Anderis         107    GTA              81    DutchQuicksilver 36    noikeee          32
Costaz           80    SpaceHorseParty 104    KWSN-DSM         81    mark f1          35    Barty            30
Barty            70    fisichella_2001  87    Marklar          74    Makarias         31    scheivlak        28
noikeee          69    Brawn BGP 001    85    wattoroos        71    Costaz           30    Kev00            27
f1paul           68    KWSN-DSM         83    Barty            70    GTA              30    Grayson          25
wattoroos        67    Makarias         83    Kev00            70    thegforcemaybewi 30    mark f1          25
Grayson          60    scheivlak        82    scheivlak        69    fisichella_2001  29    SpaceHorseParty  25
thegforcemaybewi 60    thegforcemaybewi 82    SpaceHorseParty  57    Grayson          28    Bleu             23
DutchQuicksilver 58    Barty            80    fisichella_2001  55    Bleu             25    DutchQuicksilver 23
Kev00            58    Grayson          80    noikeee          55    Anderis          20    * Forecast       21
M2000-5          56    mark f1          80    DutchQuicksilver 54    KWSN-DSM         19    Anderis          20
scheivlak        56    M2000-5          78    f1paul           54    Marklar          18    KWSN-DSM         20
fisichella_2001  51    GTA              77    Grayson          52    Barty            15    Marklar          20
Marklar          49    Bleu             74    Bleu             46    noikeee          15    thegforcemaybewi 20
sladealonso      49    wattoroos        71    sladealonso      45    scheivlak        14    f1paul           14
GTA              41    sladealonso      70    Brawn BGP 001    43    sladealonso      13    fisichella_2001  14
mark f1          40    DutchQuicksilver 68    Costaz           43    Kev00            12    sladealonso      14
thequadge        40    noikeee          68    thequadge        41    M2000-5          12    wattoroos        13
Anderis          37    f1paul           62    mark f1          40    f1paul           10    Makarias         10
Bleu             37    Costaz           61    thegforcemaybewi 40    SpaceHorseParty   6    GTA               6
Makarias         37    Kev00            57    M2000-5          39    Brawn BGP 001     3    Brawn BGP 001     5
Brawn BGP 001    27    Marklar          50    Makarias         33    * Current         2    thequadge         5
* Current         8    * Current         6    * Current         4    thequadge         0    * Current         1
Eight teams in the WCC points already is quite fun.

The PTPC forecast
Will appear after the Spanish GP.

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#2 Anderis

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Posted 17 March 2019 - 11:17

Why did I have to underestimate Mercedes SO MUCH? :confused:

 

It's pretty much certain I'll end up with one of the lowest scores.



#3 M2000-5

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Posted 17 March 2019 - 11:55

Anderis, last place is mine and you have to fight for it!!!!

#4 SpaceHorseParty

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Posted 17 March 2019 - 15:21

Anderis, last place is mine and you have to fight for it!!!!

You and what army?



#5 thequadge

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Posted 17 March 2019 - 15:35

You and what army?

No Fighting gents and also did you see: You're all first and I'm last  :confused: :(  :D

 

 

The standings after Australia:

Pos Name                  Tot Latest
1)  Almost everyone       101 101
23) thequadge              99  99
One entry didn't add up to 2121 points: thequadge had 2118 points. At least a couple of those could have been placed on Stroll, but alas...