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2020 Silly Season Trophy – interim results


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#1 SpaceHorseParty

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Posted 18 March 2019 - 20:31

It's been a while, but we can finally start following the results of the 2020 Silly Season Trophy as teams confirm their lineups for next season. Though there are already a few confirmed deals, none of them have been announced since December, when the deadline for submitting entries ended.
 
Of course, contracts in Formula One are not always iron-clad, and that is particularly true for the slower teams. Sometimes, the press releases are pretty vague (e.g. mentioning a "multi-year deal"). While I'm sure things might change during the next 12 months, at this moment I consider the following drivers to be under contract:A few other drivers are likely to be under contract as well, but I would like to wait for an official confirmation. Those are likely to happen during the summer. All three are newcomers to their respective teams (and Formula One in general), so I'm sure the vagueness of their deals is by design – the teams probably have the option to extend the deal, but will decide whether to use it when they have a better idea of how well the drivers have adapted to their new situation.Let's count the points for the seven confirmed drivers. All players will probably get 15 points for correctly predicting that there will be no more than 10 teams on the grid; I've already added those points.
Place	Name			Points	Exact	Subm
 1	SpaceHorseParty		 50.67	 7	 1
 2	rodlamas		 50.67	 7	 2
 3	Marklar			 50.67	 7	 3
 4	KWSN - DSM		 50.67	 7	 4
 5	sladealonso		 50.67	 7	 5
 6	thequadge		 50.67	 7	 6
 7	thegforcemaybewithyou	 50.67	 7	 8
 8	noikeee			 50.67	 7	10
 9	Makarias		 50.67	 7	11
10	DutchQuicksilver	 50.67	 7	12
11	scheivlak		 50.67	 7	13
12	M2000-5			 50.67	 7	15
13	Grayson			 50.67	 7	16
	AVERAGE PICK		 50.67	 7	
14	f1paul			 45.40	 6	 9
15	TurnOffTheLights	 42.40	 5	 7
16	Costaz			 40.27	 5	14
Just like before, the players are first ordered by their number of points, then by their number of exact picks, and then by submission order. As more drivers get confirmed, the number of points should diverge. As we can see, some players think some of the confirmed contracts might get broken: f1paul predicts Magnussen will leave F1, TurnOffTheLights expects Ricciardo to take Vettel's seat at Ferrari, and Costaz thinks both Magnussen and Räikkönen will not feature in 2020.
 
We will also track the amount of potential points. This shows the maximum possible points haul for each of the players. It is listed below:
Place	Name			Points	Exact	Subm
 1	Makarias		137.47	20	11
 2	rodlamas		133.87	20	 2
 3	M2000-5			133.60	19	15
 4	KWSN - DSM		132.93	20	 4
 5	thegforcemaybewithyou	132.80	20	 8
 6	sladealonso		132.67	20	 5
 7	scheivlak		128.47	20	13
 8	noikeee			127.00	20	10
 9	thequadge		125.53	20	 6
10	SpaceHorseParty		124.73	20	 1
11	Marklar			124.73	20	 3
12	DutchQuicksilver	124.73	20	12
	AVERAGE PICK		124.20	20	
13	Grayson			123.53	20	16
14	f1paul			122.93	19	 9
15	TurnOffTheLights	118.47	18	 7
16	Costaz			110.47	18	14
Remember, the most rewarded picks are unique. Rare picks also offer a lot of potential points. The average pick, being a combination of the most expected (and thus least rewarded) picks, is close to the bottom – but, just like in the years, that is almost certain to change as more teams confirm their lineups.
 
As soon as you hear any updates regarding the 2020 lineups, check out this thread!

Edited by SpaceHorseParty, 18 March 2019 - 23:19.


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#2 thegforcemaybewithyou

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Posted 24 March 2019 - 19:14

This isn't an update to the 2020 lineups, but might be interesting for the players who picked Schumacher to make it to the grid. It looks like he'll be driving for Sauber at the test after the Bahrain GP. https://www.gpfans.c...n-bahrain-test/



#3 DutchQuicksilver

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Posted 24 March 2019 - 19:20

Doubt Alfa Romeo will drop Giovinazzi after one season, unless he really screws up compared to Kimi.

#4 thegforcemaybewithyou

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Posted 24 March 2019 - 19:52

Agree, he definitely needs a first or second place in the final standings and Gio a bad season compared to Kimi for the switch to happen.



#5 SpaceHorseParty

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Posted 21 July 2019 - 11:14

Update #1: Norris confirmed at McLaren
 
The first update has been long overdue. On July 9th, nearly two weeks ago, McLaren confirmed their 2020 line-up would be the same as this year: Carlos Sainz and Lando Norris.
 
While it was already known Sainz had a contract until the end of 2020, Norris's status was a bit more vague, so I waited until an announcement to count his points as well.
 
Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
 1	  0	SpaceHorseParty		 55.80	+5.13	8	1
 2	  0	rodlamas		 55.80	+5.13	8	2
 3	  0	Marklar			 55.80	+5.13	8	3
 4	  0	KWSN - DSM		 55.80	+5.13	8	4
 5	  0	sladealonso		 55.80	+5.13	8	5
 6	  0	thequadge		 55.80	+5.13	8	6
 7	  0	thegforcemaybewithyou	 55.80	+5.13	8	8
 8	  0	noikeee			 55.80	+5.13	8	10
 9	  0	Makarias		 55.80	+5.13	8	11
10	  0	DutchQuicksilver	 55.80	+5.13	8	12
11	  0	scheivlak		 55.80	+5.13	8	13
12	+ 1	Grayson			 55.80	+5.13	8	16
		AVERAGE PICK		 55.80	+5.13	8	
13	- 1	M2000-5			 50.67	 0.00	7	15
14	  0	f1paul			 50.53	+5.13	7	9
15	  0	TurnOffTheLights	 47.53	+5.13	6	7
16	  0	Costaz			 45.40	+5.13	6	14
M2000-5 was the only player not to use Norris in his 2020 grid. All others expected him to continue at McLaren. This allows Grayson, who was the last to submit his picks, to move one place up. 12 players currently have the same amount of points (55.8), as they all picked the eight currently confirmed drivers in their line-ups.
 
Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
 1	  0	Makarias		137.47	  0.00	20	11
 2	  0	rodlamas		133.87	  0.00	20	2
 3	+ 1	KWSN - DSM		132.93	  0.00	20	4
 4	+ 1	thegforcemaybewithyou	132.80	  0.00	20	8
 5	+ 1	sladealonso		132.67	  0.00	20	5
 6	+ 1	scheivlak		128.47	  0.00	20	13
 7	+ 1	noikeee			127.00	  0.00	20	10
 8	+ 1	thequadge		125.53	  0.00	20	6
 9	+ 1	SpaceHorseParty		124.73	  0.00	20	1
10	+ 1	Marklar			124.73	  0.00	20	3
11	+ 1	DutchQuicksilver	124.73	  0.00	20	12
		AVERAGE PICK		124.20	  0.00	20	
12	+ 1	Grayson			123.53	  0.00	20	16
13	+ 1	f1paul			122.93	  0.00	19	9
14	-11	M2000-5			120.60	-13.00	18	15
15	  0	TurnOffTheLights	118.47	  0.00	18	7
16	  0	Costaz			110.47	  0.00	18	14
M2000-5 suffers a more dramatic drop in the potential standings, with his unique Alonso/McLaren pick now proving worthless. He moves from third best points potential to third worst.

#6 M2000-5

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Posted 21 July 2019 - 12:48

It was worth a shot...

#7 SpaceHorseParty

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Posted 29 August 2019 - 16:07

Update #2: Bottas confirmed at Mercedes

The Mercedes F1 team is affiliated with four drivers, two of them in the main team (Hamilton and Bottas), and the other two either doing simulator work (Ocon) or driving for Williams (Russell). With so many drivers to choose from, it was no surprise that no players expected Mercedes to hire from outside.

 

Toto Wolff confirmed that Hamilton's teammate would either be Bottas or Ocon, and today he announced Bottas would continue in 2020.
 

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
 1	+ 1	rodlamas		 62.00	+ 6.20	 9	 2
 2	+ 1	Marklar			 62.00	+ 6.20	 9	 3
 3	+ 9	Grayson			 62.00	+ 6.20	 9	16
 4	- 3	SpaceHorseParty		 57.93	+ 2.13	 8	 1
 5	+ 1	thequadge		 57.93	+ 2.13	 8	 6
 6	+ 1	thegforcemaybewithyou	 57.93	+ 2.13	 8	 8
 7	+ 1	noikeee			 57.93	+ 2.13	 8	10
 8	+ 1	Makarias		 57.93	+ 2.13	 8	11
 9	+ 1	DutchQuicksilver	 57.93	+ 2.13	 8	12
10	+ 1	scheivlak		 57.93	+ 2.13	 8	13
		AVERAGE PICK		 57.93	+ 2.13	 8	
11	+ 2	M2000-5			 56.87	+ 6.20	 8	15
12	+ 2	f1paul			 56.73	+ 6.20	 8	 9
13	- 9	KWSN - DSM		 55.80	  0.00	 8	 4
14	- 9	sladealonso		 55.80	  0.00	 8	 5
15	  0	TurnOffTheLights	 53.73	+ 6.20	 7	 7
16	  0	Costaz			 51.60	+ 6.20	 7	14

This is good news for seven players, including rodlamas, the new leader. Marklar and Grayson have the same amount of points, but are placed lower due to submitting their guesses later. KWSN - DSM and sladealonso thought Bottas wouldn't find a place in the 2020 grid, and it seems that they were wrong.
 

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
 1	+ 1	rodlamas		133.87	  0.00	20	 2
 2	- 1	Makarias		128.20	- 9.27	18	11
 3	  0	KWSN - DSM		126.73	- 6.20	19	 4
 4	+ 1	sladealonso		126.47	- 6.20	19	 5
 5	+ 5	Marklar			124.73	  0.00	20	 3
 6	- 2	thegforcemaybewithyou	123.73	- 9.07	18	 8
 7	+ 5	Grayson			123.53	  0.00	20	16
 8	+ 5	f1paul			122.93	  0.00	19	 9
 9	+ 5	M2000-5			120.60	  0.00	18	15
10	- 4	scheivlak		118.80	- 9.67	18	13
11	+ 4	TurnOffTheLights	118.47	  0.00	18	 7
12	- 5	noikeee			118.33	- 8.67	18	10
13	- 5	thequadge		116.47	- 9.07	18	 6
14	- 5	SpaceHorseParty		116.07	- 8.67	18	 1
15	- 4	DutchQuicksilver	116.07	- 8.67	18	12
		AVERAGE PICK		115.53	- 8.67	18	
16	  0	Costaz			110.47	  0.00	18	14

rodlamas also takes the lead in the potential points standings. Together with Marklar and Grayson, he still has a chance to go 20 for 20. Many players suffer large points losses, as their pick for the second Mercedes seat (in most cases, Ocon), now no longer has the chance to score full points.



#8 SpaceHorseParty

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Posted 29 August 2019 - 16:24

Update #3: Ocon confirmed at Renault
 
With Ocon's Mercedes chances over, Renault has picked him up for 2020, and they did not hesitate to announce it.
 
Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
 1	  0	rodlamas		 64.00	+ 2.00	 9	 2
 2	  0	Marklar			 64.00	+ 2.00	 9	 3
 3	  0	Grayson			 64.00	+ 2.00	 9	16
 4	+11	TurnOffTheLights	 60.73	+ 7.00	 8	 7
 5	- 1	SpaceHorseParty		 59.93	+ 2.00	 8	 1
 6	- 1	thequadge		 59.93	+ 2.00	 8	 6
 7	- 1	thegforcemaybewithyou	 59.93	+ 2.00	 8	 8
 8	- 1	noikeee			 59.93	+ 2.00	 8	10
 9	- 1	Makarias		 59.93	+ 2.00	 8	11
10	- 1	DutchQuicksilver	 59.93	+ 2.00	 8	12
11	- 1	scheivlak		 59.93	+ 2.00	 8	13
		AVERAGE PICK		 59.93	+ 2.00	 8	
12	- 1	M2000-5			 58.87	+ 2.00	 8	15
13	- 1	f1paul			 58.73	+ 2.00	 8	 9
14	- 1	KWSN - DSM		 57.80	+ 2.00	 8	 4
15	- 1	sladealonso		 57.80	+ 2.00	 8	 5
16	  0	Costaz			 53.60	+ 2.00	 7	14
Everyone expected Ocon to appear on the grid, but most players guessed he would either drive for Mercedes or for a customer team of theirs (i.e. Racing Point or Williams). TurnOffTheLights was the only one to guess he would join Renault, a team he used to be affiliated with. For that he is awarded 7 points and he moves up to 4th place in the standings.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
 1	  0	rodlamas		125.80	- 8.07	18	 2
 2	+ 1	KWSN - DSM		123.47	- 3.27	18	 4
 3	+ 1	sladealonso		123.20	- 3.27	18	 5
 4	- 2	Makarias		120.67	- 7.53	16	11
 5	+ 1	thegforcemaybewithyou	120.53	- 3.20	17	 8
 6	+ 5	TurnOffTheLights	118.20	- 0.27	18	 7
 7	+ 1	f1paul			117.80	- 5.13	18	 9
 8	- 3	Marklar			117.20	- 7.53	18	 3
 9	- 2	Grayson			116.00	- 7.53	18	16
10	- 1	M2000-5			116.00	- 4.60	17	15
11	+ 1	noikeee			115.13	- 3.20	17	10
12	- 2	scheivlak		114.47	- 4.33	17	13
13	  0	thequadge		113.27	- 3.20	17	 6
14	  0	SpaceHorseParty		112.87	- 3.20	17	 1
15	  0	DutchQuicksilver	112.87	- 3.20	17	12
		AVERAGE PICK		112.33	- 3.20	17	
16	  0	Costaz			106.13	- 4.33	17	14
Did I say there are three players with a chance to go 20 for 20? Not anymore, as the best possible number of correct guesses is now 18. rodlamas keeps 1st place in the potential standings, but his advantage is reduced.

#9 SpaceHorseParty

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Posted 24 September 2019 - 19:45

Update #4: Pérez and Stroll confirmed at Racing Point

 

Nearly a month ago, Racing Point confirmed the expected: Sergio Pérez and Lance Stroll would continue driving for the team in 2020. Pérez signed a three-year deal that will keep him at the team until the end of 2022 (perhaps the longest deal in Formula One now). The details of Stroll's contract are more vague, but his seat was presumably never in any risk.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
 1	+ 1	Marklar			 74.80	+10.80	11	 3
 2	- 1	rodlamas		 71.07	+ 7.07	10	 2
 3	  0	Grayson			 71.07	+ 7.07	10	16
 4	+ 1	SpaceHorseParty		 70.73	+10.80	10	 1
 5	+ 2	thegforcemaybewithyou	 70.73	+10.80	10	 8
 6	+ 3	Makarias		 70.73	+10.80	10	11
 7	+ 3	DutchQuicksilver	 70.73	+10.80	10	12
 8	+ 3	scheivlak		 70.73	+10.80	10	13
		AVERAGE PICK		 70.73	+10.80	10	
 9	+ 3	M2000-5			 69.67	+10.80	10	15
10	+ 4	KWSN - DSM		 68.60	+10.80	10	 4
11	+ 4	sladealonso		 68.60	+10.80	10	 5
12	- 8	TurnOffTheLights	 67.80	+ 7.07	 9	 7
13	- 5	noikeee			 67.00	+ 7.07	 9	10
14	- 1	f1paul			 65.80	+ 7.07	 9	 9
15	- 9	thequadge		 64.93	+ 5.00	 9	 6
16	  0	Costaz			 64.40	+10.80	 9	14

Marklar takes the lead, having correctly predicted Racing Point's line-up. Every player expected Stroll to drive for Racing Point, so everyone gets 5 points for that. The remaining points are either for placing Pérez there as well (5.8 points), placing him somewhere else (2.07 points), or expecting him to leave F1 (0 points – only thequadge made this prediction). Pérez's alternate destinations were Haas (4 players) and Williams (1 player), while Stroll's alternate teammates were Ocon, Russell (2 players each), Bottas, and Kubica (1 player each).

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
 1	+ 1	KWSN - DSM		123.47	  0.00	18	 4
 2	+ 1	sladealonso		123.20	  0.00	18	 5
 3	- 2	rodlamas		121.27	- 4.53	17	 2
 4	  0	Makarias		120.67	  0.00	16	11
 5	  0	thegforcemaybewithyou	120.53	  0.00	17	 8
 6	+ 2	Marklar			117.20	  0.00	18	 3
 7	+ 3	M2000-5			116.00	  0.00	17	15
 8	+ 4	scheivlak		114.47	  0.00	17	13
 9	- 2	f1paul			113.27	- 4.53	17	 9
10	+ 4	SpaceHorseParty		112.87	  0.00	17	 1
11	+ 4	DutchQuicksilver	112.87	  0.00	17	12
		AVERAGE PICK		112.33	  0.00	17	
12	+ 1	thequadge		111.20	- 2.07	17	 6
13	- 7	TurnOffTheLights	108.87	- 9.33	16	 7
14	- 5	Grayson			106.67	- 9.33	16	16
15	+ 1	Costaz			106.13	  0.00	17	14
16	- 5	noikeee			105.80	- 9.33	15	10

The players worst affected by the Pérez situation drop to the bottom of the potential standings. But all is not over yet.



#10 SpaceHorseParty

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Posted 30 September 2019 - 16:54

Update #5: Grosjean confirmed at Haas

 

After some speculation (including comments that indicated they were considering hiring Nico Hülkenberg), Haas confirmed they would retain Romain Grosjean, who has been driving for them since the team was founded in 2016.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
 1	+10	sladealonso		 75.33	+ 6.73	11	5
 2	- 1	Marklar			 74.80	  0.00	11	3
 3	+11	f1paul			 72.53	+ 6.73	10	9
 4	+11	thequadge		 71.67	+ 6.73	10	6
 5	- 3	rodlamas		 71.07	  0.00	10	2
 6	- 3	Grayson			 71.07	  0.00	10	16
 7	- 3	SpaceHorseParty		 70.73	  0.00	10	1
 8	- 3	thegforcemaybewithyou	 70.73	  0.00	10	8
 9	- 3	Makarias		 70.73	  0.00	10	11
10	- 3	DutchQuicksilver	 70.73	  0.00	10	12
11	- 3	scheivlak		 70.73	  0.00	10	13
		AVERAGE PICK		 70.73	  0.00	10	
12	- 3	M2000-5			 69.67	  0.00	10	15
13	- 3	KWSN - DSM		 68.60	  0.00	10	4
14	- 2	TurnOffTheLights	 67.80	  0.00	9	7
15	- 2	noikeee			 67.00	  0.00	9	10
16	  0	Costaz			 64.40	  0.00	9	14

Only three players predicted that, and they shoot up to the top of the rankings, taking up three out of the top four spots. sladealonso becomes the fourth player to lead the standings so far. Interestingly, nobody expected Grosjean would switch teams.

 

As Magnussen's contract was already confirmed when this game was launched last November, most players included him in their guesses (though there were two exceptions). Other popular guesses were Bottas, Giovinazzi, and Pérez (4 each), Schumacher, Shwartzman, and an unknown driver (1 each).

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
 1	+ 1	sladealonso		123.20	  0.00	18	5
 2	+ 1	rodlamas		119.20	- 2.07	17	2
 3	+ 1	Makarias		118.60	- 2.07	16	11
 4	- 3	KWSN - DSM		116.47	- 7.00	17	4
 5	+ 4	f1paul			113.27	  0.00	17	9
 6	+ 6	thequadge		111.20	  0.00	17	6
 7	+ 3	SpaceHorseParty		110.80	- 2.07	17	1
 8	+ 3	DutchQuicksilver	110.80	- 2.07	17	12
 9	- 3	Marklar			110.73	- 6.47	17	3
10	- 5	thegforcemaybewithyou	110.47	-10.07	16	8
		AVERAGE PICK		110.27	- 2.07	17	
11	- 4	M2000-5			109.40	- 6.60	16	15
12	- 4	scheivlak		108.00	- 6.47	16	13
13	  0	TurnOffTheLights	106.80	- 2.07	16	7
14	  0	Grayson			104.60	- 2.07	16	16
15	+ 1	noikeee			103.73	- 2.07	15	10
16	- 1	Costaz			 99.53	- 6.60	16	14

sladealonso now also leads the potential standings. Most others lose points because one of their picks whose primary choice is already taken (e.g. McLaren) no longer have a seat available in a best case scenario. thegforcemaybewithyou is the biggest loser in this update, as his unique pick of Robert Shwartzman can no longer score the big points.



#11 SpaceHorseParty

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Posted 06 October 2019 - 10:17

Update #6: Kubica will leave Williams

 

Robert Kubica announced a few weeks ago that he would leave Williams at the end of the 2019 season. While he hasn't ruled out staying in F1, it seems unlikely at the moment.

Place	Diff	Name			Points	Diff	Exact	Subm
 1	  0	sladealonso		119.33	- 3.87	17	 5
 2	  0	rodlamas		119.20	  0.00	17	 2
 3	  0	Makarias		118.60	  0.00	16	11
 4	  0	KWSN - DSM		112.60	- 3.87	16	 4
 5	+ 2	SpaceHorseParty		110.80	  0.00	17	 1
 6	+ 2	DutchQuicksilver	110.80	  0.00	17	12
 7	+ 2	Marklar			110.73	  0.00	17	 3
 8	+ 2	thegforcemaybewithyou	110.47	  0.00	16	 8
 9	- 4	f1paul			109.40	- 3.87	16	 9
10	+ 1	M2000-5			109.40	  0.00	16	15
11	+ 1	scheivlak		108.00	  0.00	16	13
12	- 6	thequadge		107.33	- 3.87	16	 6
		AVERAGE PICK		106.40	- 3.87	16	
13	+ 1	Grayson			104.60	  0.00	16	16
14	+ 1	noikeee			103.73	  0.00	15	10
15	- 2	TurnOffTheLights	102.93	- 3.87	15	 7
16	  0	Costaz			 99.53	  0.00	16	14

In any case, this announcement only affects the potential standings. The five players who picked Kubica lose 3.87 points each, as nobody predicted he would switch teams. All five can still score a few points if he manages to find a different seat, and are bound to lose a few more potential points if he announces a DTM move (as rumored) or if all seats are taken.



#12 SpaceHorseParty

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Posted 06 October 2019 - 10:20

Also, in addition to the implied status of Leclerc and Russell (as mentioned in the original post), Daniil Kvyat was said to be internally confirmed for Toro Rosso by Helmut Marko. Like with the other two drivers, I'll wait for an unambiguous confirmation before counting any points for them.

 

This means the open seats are:

  • 1 seat at Ferrari (presumably taken by Leclerc)
  • 1 seat at Red Bull
  • 1 seat at Alfa Romeo
  • 2 seats at Toro Rosso (one presumably taken by Kvyat)
  • 2 seats at Williams (one presumably taken by Russell)


#13 f1paul

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Posted 06 October 2019 - 10:53

Leclerc has a contract until 2022, no?



#14 SpaceHorseParty

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Posted 07 October 2019 - 04:35

Leclerc has a contract until 2022, no?

Good question. The link in the original post has a quote by Arrivabene: "Thank God, it's a guy that he grew up with us and I hope that he is going to continue his career with us, at least until 2022 for sure." It probably means he has a contract until 2022, but the "I hope", as well as the fact that it was said in an interview, not a press release, made me pause when I calculated the initial results. I think there was also some speculation around the time of that comment that the contract ends in 2022, but it doesn't necessarily mean Ferrari are obligated to give a race seat to Leclerc (i.e. they can use him as a test driver or place him at Alfa Romeo).

 

At some point during this year many sources started treating him as confirmed for 2020 without a new release from Ferrari. Given there's no speculation about the second Ferrari seat (in fact, the only speculation is about Vettel's future), Leclerc should probably be counted as confirmed. But I'll wait a short bit more before counting him. I wonder when FIA will release the first 2020 entry list.