85 replies to this topic

[Risil]

"Where is the light I thought to see in your eye?", asked Mr Gruffydd of Roddy McDowell's Huw in the 1941 movie How Green Was My Valley. Sebastian Vettel, Charles Leclerc and assorted tifosi are no doubt asking the same question of Mattia Binotto, the Ferrari SF90 and other inanimate objects. The car we were all assured had dominated spring testing didn't show up, instead skulking around just off the podium places as Mercedes took the top steps.

 

What's going on? Mysterious balance issues? A fundamental problem with the car? The Melbourne circuit throwing up a surprise? Or somebody, somewhere sneakily sandbagging?

 

Please help to solve my maze in the comments below.

[Marklar]

 

 

Didn't want to win anyway 

Based on the last years this seems to be a reasonable option!

[PedroDiCasttro]

I'd wager the sole reason lies on Ferrari having developed an overall inferior car than Mercedes'. Nothing to do with fundamental flaws or whatever.

[EthanM]

People who expected "ferrari to be half a second quicker than the next car" were mostly delusional newbies. The easiest way for the press to generate column inches (or whatever the digital equivalent of that is) is to build Ferrari up then dissect the 'problems' that are 'stopping' them from delivering the "pace" the press promised.

 

IMO Aus doesn't suit the car, plus I suspect they have some gremlin in the engine which forced them to run it very conservatively. If that persists through Bahrain and China I 'll worry. If the engine problem persists through to Europe, then it's probably season over for them.

[AlexPrime]

I'd wager the sole reason lies on Ferrari having developed an overall inferior car than Mercedes'. Nothing to do with fundamental flaws or whatever.

That is what I suspect and fear.

[Nonesuch]

This topic is for those of us who've time-travelled here from 2012?

 

Ferrari and Red Bull squabble behind Mercedes.

 

F1 fans:

 

[SenorSjon]

F1Today has an article online that both their simulator drivers were at Sebring, so two relative inexperienced guys (Hartley and Wehrlein) had to do setup work in the sim. They couldn't work out a proper setup, so Ferrari went into damage limitation. Gasly prevented a 5th/6th for them.

 

https://www.gptoday....et-kon-oplossen (Dutch)

[Jovanotti]

People who expected "ferrari to be half a second quicker than the next car" were mostly delusional newbies.

Probably not half a second in front, but each and everyone who followed and reported from winter testing said Ferrari had the best car, from timing as well as trackside impressions. It's been only logical to expect them out in front, something setup or engine related must have happened in Australia.

Edited by Jovanotti, 19 March 2019 - 14:03.

[BuddyHolly]

I didn't believe Ferrari was in front for a second.     but then I didn't think they would be so far behind either. 

No matter how you spin it "one off track and other nonsense" it was a disaster for Ferrari and Merc are plainly miles ahead.

 

I want to see battles for the lead, Merc again being miles ahead makes me think the season is going to be another borefest, I only hope Max can put up some kind of fight but I doubt it, as again the Merc is in a different league or so it seems right now.

[Rinehart]

Same, I didn’t think Ferrari were ahead, check the testing thread! It wasn’t that I didn’t think the Ferrari weren’t quick, it was the crazy dismissal of Mercedes who have 1000 employees, spend £2bn and have won 74% of all races in the Hybrid era. They were never going to plummet just because of a slight change to the wings. I felt all the journalists were predicting their hopes rather than reality.

[AnR]

Same, I didn’t think Ferrari were ahead, check the testing thread! It wasn’t that I didn’t think the Ferrari weren’t quick, it was the crazy dismissal of Mercedes who have 1000 employees, spend £2bn and have won 74% of all races in the Hybrid era. They were never going to plummet just because of a slight change to the wings. I felt all the journalists were predicting their hopes rather than reality.

 

This 

 

Journalists in F1 and Merc have an agenda to make it look interesting while it really isn't..

[ANF]

F1Today has an article online that both their simulator drivers were at Sebring, so two relative inexperienced guys (Hartley and Wehrlein) had to do setup work in the sim. They couldn't work out a proper setup, so Ferrari went into damage limitation. Gasly prevented a 5th/6th for them.
 
https://www.gptoday....et-kon-oplossen (Dutch)

Wehrlein and Antonio Fuoco rather, because Davide Rigon and Brendon Hartley were at Sebring. (I had no idea that Davide Rigon is a simulator driver for Ferrari.)

[Nonesuch]

... each and everyone who followed and reported from winter testing said Ferrari had the best car, from timing as well as trackside impressions.

 

Not quite; Ferrari was certainly stronger than in Melbourne, but some of the more elaborate write-ups, even here in the testing thread, indicated how impressive Mercedes was in the second test.

 

With Mercedes itself noting the first test was compromised, that should have been cause for much more nuance. But too many people were all too happy to believe either what they themselves wanted to believe, or to pretend to believe what they knew readers wanted to believe.

 

[A3]

Regarding Ferrari's struggle with balance, this is an interesting read: https://www.bbc.com/...rmula1/47527705

[AvranaKern]

Never read Toto Wolff's quotes. Ever again.

[Rinehart]

This 

 

Journalists in F1 and Merc have an agenda to make it look interesting while it really isn't..

People always say budget doesn't guarantee anything in F1, just look at Toyota. But there is a big difference between investing billions to get to the front (extremely difficult) and investing billions to stay there. Once you've got all the people, IP and momentum it's somewhat easier to sustain. Toyota never had a Lewis Hamilton, a Ross Brawn or an Andy Cowell or 2 year head start to design a new PU for a new era. Mercedes have all that and now they just need to keep the process going. I have a long held theory that Mercedes are holding back, they've never been challenged enough to have to risk design or fast track development. I can't see Ferrari or anyone trumping that scenario in this era. The best Ferrari or anyone can hope for is to be able to fight, as Ferrari did (and should have done a better job of) last year. But to turn up with a significant advantage under these established and restrictive regs is nigh on impossible. And as you say, that's what everyone (including me) wants to happen... But the previous Red Bull, Renault and Ferrari and Williams eras were all started and ended by major regulation changes, not fiddling around the edges. 

[P123]

Oh, it's another one of those paranoia topics where folks moan about Mercedes, ignoring how bullish Ferrari themselves were pre-season, or how Ferrari have been saying they achieved nowhere near the potential of the car in Melbourne. Perhaps they are in 'it' with Merc and the F1 media, as the increasingly mournful tin foil hat spammers would have us believe. They're playing with your minds, duuuude.

Williams era was ended by losing Newey and Renault. And there were major regulation changes in 2017.

Edited by P123, 19 March 2019 - 15:10.

[w1Y]

People who expected "ferrari to be half a second quicker than the next car" were mostly delusional newbies. The easiest way for the press to generate column inches (or whatever the digital equivalent of that is) is to build Ferrari up then dissect the 'problems' that are 'stopping' them from delivering the "pace" the press promised.

IMO Aus doesn't suit the car, plus I suspect they have some gremlin in the engine which forced them to run it very conservatively. If that persists through Bahrain and China I 'll worry. If the engine problem persists through to Europe, then it's probably season over for them.

Hindsight trading at its best right here.

People have become so fickle. At least give the team a couple of races. This could be Ferrari's version of Mercs 2018 mexico and not really that unexpected a team has issues at the first race.

Your kind of also forgetting that max's red bull beat you. Cant remember many ferrari fans saying red bull would be ahead. As i said, hindsight trading at its best.

Edited by w1Y, 19 March 2019 - 15:35.

[Nonesuch]

... ignoring how bullish Ferrari themselves were pre-season

 
Ferrari statements as pertaining to the car, via their own website.

 

Test 1
 
18 February. Vettel: "It is too early to sum it up, as it’s just the first day, but I would like to send my compliments to everyone back at the factory in Maranello for how they tackled all the new rules and what they put on track today and also how the team is handling the car in a well prepared way."
19 February. Leclerc: "I am very happy with the way today went. Despite some red flag interruptions, we were able to get through all our programme and to do 157 laps, which has produced a lot of useful data."
20 February. Vettel: "We tried a few things around also focusing on set-up and I can only confirm the positive impression I had on day one. Having now put 303 laps in the bag I feel comfortable to say we are satisfied with how the car is progressing.”
21 February. Leclerc: "I don’t want to say too much, because this is just testing. But the feeling from the car is very good. We did many laps, the reliability was good and every day we managed to complete our programme. (...) this is quite an easy car to drive. As Seb said, this doesn’t feel like a new car, but more like one that is quite well developed. Driveability is very good, which shows that the team has done an amazing job over the winter to bring a very solid car here.”
 

Test 2

26 February. Vettel: "We are still trying to understand the car, trying various set-ups. This afternoon, we also had a first go with the supersoft compound, just to get some more information. The next couple of days will be important for us”.
27 February. Vettel: "Clearly, we have not done as much running as we would have liked. But I’d still say I’m getting a positive feeling from the car."
28 February. Leclerc: "The SF90 is solid and the balance is good and consistent."
1 March. Binotto: "I am pleased with how the car behaves and it was well balanced at this track. However, we cannot be completely satisfied at the moment as we would like to be faster and more reliable. So there’s still a lot to do. Our programme didn’t always run as smoothly as we would have liked (...). There are still many issues to be addressed and we must push forward on the performance front. The fact that our car is running properly is a good starting point, but we are still not ready for Melbourne and I’d say it’s a case of a work in progress.”

 

Vettel calm, positive. Binotto reserved, not particularly feisty. Leclerc is a bit excited. But hey, he's a 21-year-old driving for Ferrari.

 

They're playing with your minds, duuuude.

Meanwhile at Mercedes:
 
"Realistically, it looks like Ferrari is half a second ahead."

 

[Marklar]

So did Red Bull though, what about them? Are they in it too?

Also Vettel was ultra excited, he called it even the best test day ever. Leclerc even admitted that he'd bet on himself. The quotes from the website are not painting everything what was said from Ferrari in the pre-season.

Edited by Marklar, 19 March 2019 - 15:55.

[TheJammin]

A bit worried if I was them. Blame it on massive changes throughout the team, from presidency to principal to drivers, and trust/hope that the Barcelona hype will come to fruition.

 

As a fan, just kind of assume Ferrari have some kind of allergy to winning or living up to hype these days.

[EthanM]

Hindsight trading at its best right here.

People have become so fickle. At least give the team a couple of races. This could be Ferrari's version of Mercs 2018 mexico and not really that unexpected a team has issues at the first race.

Your kind of also forgetting that max's red bull beat you. Cant remember many ferrari fans saying red bull would be ahead. As i said, hindsight trading at its best.

 

That was my opinion when you guys predicted Ferrari domination, my post history is available (and for this season) relatively short. You won't have to search through much. 1 second relative gains/losses between seasons between two teams that spend hundreds of millions WITHOUT huge regulation changes just don't happen. Especially in modern, simulation driven, F1. Those that expected Ferrari to be suddenly miles ahead were (I believed and still believe) delusional.

Edited by EthanM, 19 March 2019 - 16:01.

[Mosrite]

I'd wager the sole reason lies on Ferrari having developed an overall inferior car than Mercedes'. Nothing to do with fundamental flaws or whatever.

agreed, it's the 5th year they've done this and everyone is still surprised.Mercedes will always superior where and when it counts. 
I never believed last year's Ferrari car was going to beat the Mercedes even when everyone was saying it's faster and it's a ferrari track, I didn't believe it in winter testing and am not surprised at all about Melbourne. I think we will see more howlers from Ferrari than impressive drives this season. 

[CountDooku]

Ferrari were lulled into a false sense of security. It’s like a champion triathlete who thinks because he dominates running in his category he’s going to win the London marathon. He shows up next to the Kenyans, very cocky, and predictably gets blown out of the water. Yardsticks matter.

[Nonesuch]

So did Red Bull though, what about them? Are they in it too?

 

Red Bull never misses a chance to needle others. Now that Alonso is no longer around in F1, Red Bull is easily the biggest troll around. That's okay, that attitude is part of their PR.

 

Where it goes wrong is when you start to take them serious. Vettel knows that better than anyone. He is, after all, the winner of dozens of races Red Bull could scarcely believe they even finished!

 

I'm sure there are great GIFs of Christian Horner nail-biting and Adrian Newey burying his head in his hands as Red Bull cruised to another win. These guys are great show boaters.

 

Also Vettel was ultra excited, he called it even the best test day ever.

 

Vettel's oft cited remark was with a huge qualifier that many have left out. After the first day he said “how [the factory team] tackled the new rules and regulations and what they put on track today is very close to perfection on the first day of driving.”

 

To which he added: "Days like this and a start like this are quite rewarding, with a lot of laps on the clock and a general good feeling for the car." Vettel of course also knew that: “Obviously it’s very early, the first day and it’s meaningless in a couple of weeks."

 

Edited by Nonesuch, 19 March 2019 - 16:12.

[Nonesuch]

Ferrari were lulled into a false sense of security.

 

Not at all, as all the statements by the team demonstrate: they know perfectly well there is room for improvement.

 

They're simply not as good as Mercedes at this current F1 game. Which, at this stage, can't be a shocking revelation to anyone.

[Marklar]

That was my opinion when you guys predicted Ferrari domination, my post history is available (and for this season) relatively short. You won't have to search through much. 1 second relative gains/losses between seasons between two teams that spend hundreds of millions WITHOUT huge regulation changes just don't happen. Especially in modern, simulation driven, F1. Those that expected Ferrari to be suddenly miles ahead were (I believed and still believe) delusional.

The rule changes were relatively huge, and the potential swings are bigger because both teams opted for vastly different concepts. and it wouldnt have been a gain of one second, but more around 5 tenths (give or take), unless you think that Mercedes was 0.5 s ahead last year, which makes you even more delusional than anyone else.

Ferrari was gaining over the last couple of years from season-to-season basis, the teams which are using their concept were doing well in testing too, and all teams (not only journalists) agreed that they look great. It's anything but delusional to consider that they've firmly turned it around with that information available. What was delusional was the thinking of some that it's certain or that a huge operation like Mercedes got it *entirely* wrong (some oulets put them in the midfield even).

What's even more delusional is to be so certain that Melbourne is the nail on the coffin. People are exagerating into all kind of directions, one will evemtually be right, but nearly no one actually has a certain foundation to predict things.

[RECKLESS]

We all just have to wait for a couple more races.




But I know the wait is painful, it always is.

Edited by RECKLESS, 19 March 2019 - 16:18.

[FirstWatt]

I'd say a combination of 2011 pre season test satisfaction (we know how that turned out), the circuit being rather different than Barcelona (and more power-sensitive, but Haas did well, so...), a bad setup, maybe a correlation issue because the base setup is done with the simulator, etc. etc.

 

I'm pretty sure they will be much closer to the top in the next three races. So therefore, they are not too worried.

[AlexPrime]

The rule changes were relatively huge, and the potential swings are bigger because both teams opted for vastly different concepts. and it wouldnt have been a gain of one second, but more around 5 tenths (give or take), unless you think that Mercedes was 0.5 s ahead last year, which makes you even more delusional than anyone else.

Ferrari was gaining over the last couple of years from season-to-season basis, the teams which are using their concept were doing well in testing too, and all teams (not only journalists) agreed that they look great. It's anything but delusional to consider that they've firmly turned it around with that information available. What was delusional was the thinking of some that it's certain or that a huge operation like Mercedes got it *entirely* wrong (some oulets put them in the midfield even).

What's even more delusional is to be so certain that Melbourne is the nail on the coffin. People are exagerating into all kind of directions, one will evemtually be right, but nearly no one actually has a certain foundation to predict things.

I think that these power unit rules give very big advantage to Merc and until they're changed, they will always win WDC and WCC. I am also in the minority which favors competition rules like BoP for F1 simply because the sport is no more fun. I think that it is a shame, because F1 is very big as a brand, has excellent media coverage, great names as drivers and teams participating and in the end produces a very dull show, with few exceptions. F1 is also helped that other global motorsports ain't in much better situation, like WEC and WRC. 
But personally I don't buy the narrative that Oz isn't the end. Right after FP2 for me it was clear where we're heading. I'd be happy to be proven wrong, but I doubt it.

[P123]

Ferrari statements as pertaining to the car, via their own website.
 
Test 1
 
18 February. Vettel: "It is too early to sum it up, as it’s just the first day, but I would like to send my compliments to everyone back at the factory in Maranello for how they tackled all the new rules and what they put on track today and also how the team is handling the car in a well prepared way."
19 February. Leclerc: "I am very happy with the way today went. Despite some red flag interruptions, we were able to get through all our programme and to do 157 laps, which has produced a lot of useful data."
20 February. Vettel: "We tried a few things around also focusing on set-up and I can only confirm the positive impression I had on day one. Having now put 303 laps in the bag I feel comfortable to say we are satisfied with how the car is progressing.”
21 February. Leclerc: "I don’t want to say too much, because this is just testing. But the feeling from the car is very good. We did many laps, the reliability was good and every day we managed to complete our programme. (...) this is quite an easy car to drive. As Seb said, this doesn’t feel like a new car, but more like one that is quite well developed. Driveability is very good, which shows that the team has done an amazing job over the winter to bring a very solid car here.”
 
Test 2
26 February. Vettel: "We are still trying to understand the car, trying various set-ups. This afternoon, we also had a first go with the supersoft compound, just to get some more information. The next couple of days will be important for us”.
27 February. Vettel: "Clearly, we have not done as much running as we would have liked. But I’d still say I’m getting a positive feeling from the car."
28 February. Leclerc: "The SF90 is solid and the balance is good and consistent."
1 March. Binotto: "I am pleased with how the car behaves and it was well balanced at this track. However, we cannot be completely satisfied at the moment as we would like to be faster and more reliable. So there’s still a lot to do. Our programme didn’t always run as smoothly as we would have liked (...). There are still many issues to be addressed and we must push forward on the performance front. The fact that our car is running properly is a good starting point, but we are still not ready for Melbourne and I’d say it’s a case of a work in progress.”
 
Vettel calm, positive. Binotto reserved, not particularly feisty. Leclerc is a bit excited. But hey, he's a 21-year-old driving for Ferrari.
 
Meanwhile at Mercedes:
 
"Realistically, it looks like Ferrari is half a second ahead."
 

Vettel reserved... the first day was the best ever day of testing for him apparently, and the forum and media experts were all jolly at his own jolliness. Naturally the paranoid reds will only focus on Mercedes stating where they were relative to Ferrari (Wolff put it a 0.3s, which seemed entirely reasonable based on testing form and plenty of other teams/ drivers thought similar), this being because Merc are just out to wind them up and they'll never ever fall for it, ever. So long as they keep saying it then it will ward off any premature excitement (yeah right!). The effects of years of beatings. Mercedes also said the true pace would be known in Melbourne (although Ferrari disagree with this after their faltering start). That people forgot the old saying of 'it's only testing' is nobodies fault but their own!

[Rinehart]

Oh, it's another one of those paranoia topics where folks moan about Mercedes, ignoring how bullish Ferrari themselves were pre-season, or how Ferrari have been saying they achieved nowhere near the potential of the car in Melbourne. Perhaps they are in 'it' with Merc and the F1 media, as the increasingly mournful tin foil hat spammers would have us believe. They're playing with your minds, duuuude.

Williams era was ended by losing Newey and Renault. And there were major regulation changes in 2017.

I dont think the facts of 5 years Mercedes domination and an unsurprising continuation of it can be described as paranoid tinfoilhattery in the slightest. Common sense perhaps. You sound terribly salty for reasons unclear to me.

[thegforcemaybewithyou]

Leclerc's second stint on the hard tyres didn't look that bad until he had to slow down and stay behind Vettel. He kept the gap to Hamilton/Verstappen pretty constant in that part of the race.

[THEWALL]

This topic is for those of us who've time-travelled here from 2012?

 

Where's the boarding for the 2021 time machine? Or is it 2022? I don't really care anymore and since Pirelli will still be there, I might have to take a look and jump right ahead until they're gone. The good thing is I'll have some complete MotoGP seasons to review...

[CountDooku]

 

 

I think it's worth quoting this post so folks here can watch this...

[AlexPrime]

Where's the boarding for the 2021 time machine? Or is it 2022? I don't really care anymore and since Pirelli will still be there, I might have to take a look and jump right ahead until they're gone. The good thing is I'll have some complete MotoGP seasons to review...

There is a lot of good racing, some of it available for free  

[Hyatt]

Toyota never had a Lewis Hamilton, a Ross Brawn or an Andy Cowell or 2 year head start to design a new PU for a new era.

So Merc knew the 2014 engine formula 2 years in advance? 

[P123]

I dont think the facts of 5 years Mercedes domination and an unsurprising continuation of it can be described as paranoid tinfoilhattery in the slightest. Common sense perhaps. You sound terribly salty for reasons unclear to me.

Constant moaning about what Mercedes say or the F1 media (do they ever get the pecking order correct) is where you'll find the tinfoil hatted, the petted lips, and a whole mountain of salt. Totally misplaced moronic tedious angst.

The fact is, there has been major and minor regulation changes. I'm not the one surprised that Mercedes are competitive.

This topic is about how Ferrari managed to get it so wrong in Melbourne. Perhaps they were 'conning' people in pre-season testing too and going for glory laps. However, I'll go for the saner explanation of it being a different track, different temps, continuing development war, perhaps compromised in settings and not take it as a set in stone level of their season. Just as Ferrari themselves are. And despite the huffing and puffing and 'look at me I'm never watching again' sort of posts across several topics, it seems even those folks think the same as they just can't pull themselves away.

[w1Y]

That was my opinion when you guys predicted Ferrari domination, my post history is available (and for this season) relatively short. You won't have to search through much. 1 second relative gains/losses between seasons between two teams that spend hundreds of millions WITHOUT huge regulation changes just don't happen. Especially in modern, simulation driven, F1. Those that expected Ferrari to be suddenly miles ahead were (I believed and still believe) delusional.

But most thought Ferrari were the strongest. Even Horner said (After the race) that everyone came expecting to get trounced by ferrari.

It does look like merc found quite a bit of performance but and I think its important to keep reminding people. Its been ONE race. A race weekend where clearly Ferrari had from what it seems a combination of major issues.

What we dont yet know is whether performance for merc was track specific and whether Ferraris problems are track specific, a cock up or a more fundamental issue.

We will find out more in Bahrain and China but I still feel relatively confident Ferrari have a mega fast car and what we saw in Aus was not truly reflective of what the car can do.

If mercs pace is maintained I still expect Ferrari challenging them.

But we wont know yet and considering Ferrari had issues i think its stupid to rule them out.

[taffer]

I think the problem with the set-up is obvious, they forgot that in the land down under they would be racing upside down.

[Alfisti]

I thought Ferrari and merc would be neck and neck. To me, compared with testing, Ferrari look slower as compared to the midfield.

Something went wrong, pretty confident they will challenge this year.

[RacingGreen]

F1Today has an article online that both their simulator drivers were at Sebring, so two relative inexperienced guys (Hartley and Wehrlein) had to do setup work in the sim. They couldn't work out a proper setup, so Ferrari went into damage limitation. Gasly prevented a 5th/6th for them.

 

https://www.gptoday....et-kon-oplossen (Dutch)

 

I seem to recall several posters to this forum predicting that promoting Gio from the simulator into Alfa's race team would initially hurt Ferrari. Of course it was also the right thing to do.

 

In my mind it also underlines something wrong with the sport when teams have to limit track running at the weekend and rely on the simulator for set-up. As someone who paid his money and went to Albert Park I would have enjoyed a few more on track laps in practice, nobody (as far as I know) spectates at an in factory simulator session.  

[Seanspeed]

I think it's ridiculous to form an opinion on something with just one weekend.  Especially after seeing how things could differ from track to track last year.  

 

I'm obviously concerned, but I was concerned after Australia last year, too.  That's just normal. 

 

All this poll is doing is kind of reinforcing the notion that you should FORM AN OPINION on things, even if we dont have enough to form a really solid opinion in the first place.  It's clearly human nature to just jump to conclusions on everything, all the time.  But we should be trying to *fight* that, not encourage it.  

[DrF]

Doesn't this happen nearly every year? Ferrari go ape in Testing, Merc take it easy. Everyone gets excited, thinking there will be something to watch. Come Melbourne, Kraken.

[Spillage]

I think their advantage was always talked up by optimistic journalists. Mercedes seemed to have a pretty clear advantage in Australia, and Ferrari and Red Bull have some catching up to do.

[midgrid]

I think the problem with the set-up is obvious, they forgot that in the land down under they would be racing upside down.

I thought it was McLaren who had the penchant for assembling things upside-down?

[V8 Fireworks]

What's going on? Mysterious balance issues? A fundamental problem with the car? The Melbourne circuit throwing up a surprise? Or somebody, somewhere sneakily sandbagging?

 

Franco Nugnes has the answers:

• Unstable downforce level on bumpy tracks
• Reduced engine output due to insufficient cooling allocation

Source: https://it.motorspor...355468/4355468/

 

All seems very plausible.

[BalanceUT]

They seemed genuinely surprised. Surprise translates to worry if they don't have a clue what's up. My guess is they are very worried now and scrambling HARD to figure out what happened. 

[beachdrifter]

I think their advantage was always talked up by optimistic journalists. 

 

Only that the journalist estimates were backed up by team's internal calculations. 

 

As everyone knows (or rather should know by now, like Ross Brawn who's been to a few GPs in his life):

 

 

"Albert Park circuit is unusual and does not really reflect the true pecking order."

[pitlanepalpatine]

So did Red Bull though, what about them? Are they in it too?

Also Vettel was ultra excited, he called it even the best test day ever. Leclerc even admitted that he'd bet on himself. The quotes from the website are not painting everything what was said from Ferrari in the pre-season.

 

The first day of testing...

 

It's the equivalent of being excited about your engine not catching fire on the installation lap. The link A3 posted is fairly interesting if you don't really get the aero stuff.