33 replies to this topic

[FirstnameLastname]

So it’s been 10 years since Button was crowned the last ‘new’ British world champion, and we had the 9th (Hamilton) the year before that. Prior to that it was a 12 year gap between Damon Hill in 1996 and Hamilton in 2008...

Who do you think is the next British talent that will grab the title, and how long do you think the wait will be?

Hamilton must be closing in on retirement now after 12years, who will pick up the mantle as the next great Brit?

[f1paul]

Lando Norris 2023

[f1paul]

But it will probbaly be some kid we don't know much about yet. 

[noikeee]

I was convinced about Lando whilst he was coming up but not so much anymore, I think he's good but maybe slightly short of world champion good so I'd say not him. Then again at age 19 he has lots to develop yet, his ceiling is unknown. I don't think many would have tipped Jenson to have made it to world champion status back through his first 2 seasons in F1 aged 20-21.

 

I think the odds are slightly better for George but it's still so early, until he gets measured against someone good that we know for sure is at the top of his game (unlike Kubica), I'm not risking naming him.

 

I don't really see any other real British star coming up in the feeder series right now (Max Fewtrell looks the slight standout, he could be good but it's so so early), and I don't know enough about karting.

Edited by noikeee, 08 May 2019 - 20:03.

[Marklar]

This depends primarly first on this question: Will Verstappen and Leclerc (and whoever else) outshine Russell and Norris so much that they will just never be able to win a title? There have been plenty promising drivers who just never ended up getting there when it mattered....In that case it will probably be someone who we dont know about yet.

If not, I would generally believe that Russell has better chances in the middle term if he gets a bit lucky with Mercedes (though there is every chance that the Williams situation ruined his momentum). In the long term current ties are pretty much irrelevant, and I rate Norris a bit higher talent-wise, whether he can materialize it, who knows. He could actually miss out on the lottery if Mercedes settles with Russell, Ferrari with Leclerc and Red Bull with Verstappen...

As for how long: I think that's generally hard to answer, but I think we are not far away from a generation change, so it can come far earlier than we believe. Who would have thought in 2006 for instance that Hamilton and Vettel will both be world champions in four years? Though again, this depends on the factors mentioned above.

[sgtkate]

Jamie Chadwick - 2023. God I'd love to see that!

 

How about one of the FE stars? Could or would Sam Bird want to jump ship over to F1? 

 

I don't see any of the current other Brits in F1 being good enough to be a WDC, but both Lando and George Russell are young. Like f1paul, I'd say it'll be an unknown who is probably still in infant school right now.

[RacingGreen]

Sterling Moss himself had all the talent in the World but never found himself in the right seat, with the right luck at the right time to win a championship. I think these things are a little difficult to predict three or four years out.

 

....But just for fun let's have a go anyway ....

 

Unfortunately the up down team by team cycle appears to have stalled with Mercedes on top and Ferrari & Red Bull snapping at their heals. The new rules probably won't change that. In the next couple of seasons there will be vacancies at all three, Lewis (retiring) and Sebastian (asked to retire or become LeClerc's No2 and so leaving) and Gasly just sacked. Assuming Ferrari and Mercedes stay top of the tree that means a vacancy for Max at one of them, and two spots for Red Bull juniors. Alex Albon is sort of British isn't he?

 

Having said that both Lando and George have made good starts and neither seem out of place at F1 level so if they continue learning and get the right break it isn't impossible to imagine either of them getting a break into a top team and going all the way. If I had to say at this point I'd say Lando because McLaren are giving him an opportunity to run in the pack so he is more likely to be noticed. Williams aren't giving Russell any chance to impress anyone.

[Sterzo]

Newey will produce a stunningly dominant car for the 2021 rules, Honda will find an extra 50bhp, while Marko will fall out with all his current drivers and draft in Nick Tandy. There's my prediction for the next British World Champion.

[PayasYouRace]

 Williams aren't giving Russell any chance to impress anyone.

 

But Mercedes are.

[scheivlak]

 

 

.Williams aren't giving Russell any chance to impress anyone.

He has impressed me.

 

With the right car at the right moment I see him as a potential WDC.

[cpbell]

I suspect it might be many years hence.  As a Norfolkman I'd love for George to get the WDC, though.

[sopa]

The idea seems to be that after every while we get a new British champion. The biggest drought so-to-speak was between Hunt (1976) and Mansell (1992). So this time the gap may well indeed get bigger, but let's wait and see.

 

As mentioned above, it depends on, who gets into the right car at the right time and how will the Norrises and Russells of this world measure up to Verstappen and Leclerc in a head-to-head battle. Both of these are unknowns at the moment. In Norris' case we could get a bit of an answer during the season against Sainz, but not in case of Russell unless he proves himself 'negatively' by starting to get beaten by Kubica.

 

But if nothing else, at least the British have got quite a few good young drivers, so their presence in F1 should be safe for the 2020's at least, with also most likely at least some British driver filling a competitive seat (at least a top3 team) as well. I don't think there are many nations that can feel that confident about their outlooks for the next decade.

[tghik]

 

As mentioned above, it depends on, who gets into the right car at the right time and how will the Norrises and Russells of this world measure up to Verstappen and Leclerc in a head-to-head battle. Both of these are unknowns at the moment. In Norris' case we could get a bit of an answer during the season against Sainz, but not in case of Russell unless he proves himself 'negatively' by starting to get beaten by Kubica.

I don't think beating Sainz translates into the WDC talent. Far from it. Well actually depends on the margin ...

[messy]

Russell and Norris could both do it, I think both are good enough to be World Champion in the right car. 

 

But it's a question of whether they actually get the right car, isn't it? I have zero doubt that Nico Hulkenberg came into F1 as a potential World Champion in the right car....and it turns out he hasn't even got a podium after almost a decade in F1

[garoidb]

The idea seems to be that after every while we get a new British champion. The biggest drought so-to-speak was between Hunt (1976) and Mansell (1992). So this time the gap may well indeed get bigger, but let's wait and see.

 

Another way to look at it is in terms of generations. Lewis Hamilton is 25 years younger than Damon Hill, but they were successive British champions. There were several generations missed even though 1996 - 2008 was only 12 years.

 

Conversely, the age gap between Hunt and Mansell was only six years even though their championships were separated by 16 years.

[PlatenGlass]

The idea seems to be that after every while we get a new British champion. The biggest drought so-to-speak was between Hunt (1976) and Mansell (1992). So this time the gap may well indeed get bigger, but let's wait and see.

I don't think most people would see it as a drought though - it's just how the question is framed. I think most people looking at it would look at the gap between championships won by British drivers. Hamilton won in 2018 so a similar drought starting now to Hunt/Mansell would take us to 2034.

[P123]

I think Russell has the greatest chance. He has ties to Merc, and although junior series form doesn't always transfer directly to F1 it usually is a reasonable guide of a driver's ability. He showed plenty in F2- good wheel to wheel racing, could turn on the pace when required, and good over a lap. It's a shame Williams are where they are for now, but Russell has his head screwed on, so no doubt will still be gaining useful experience.

[ensign14]

Nobody.  Because Russell and Norris will draw the 2025 title.  The FIA will order a race-off from DC to LA and it will be a dead heat.

[absinthedude]

At this point it looks like either Russell or Norris. The former is currently in a car where showing his talents is nigh on impossible....but he's getting the job done and acting like a seasoned pro. He has links to Merc, and if he keeps those links he could see himself in a better car or even in a Merc....if they stick around after 2021.....that's a lot of "ifs".

 

On the other hand Norris is already in a car where he can score points and race with the big boys a bit...and he's able to show that he can do all of that successfully. But his immediate future is tied to McLaren who are still digging themselves out of the mire. For him, getting a seat at Mercedes, Ferrari or Red Bull probably requires him demonstrating that he is "the next big thing". 

 

either driver could achieve a WDC based on the evidence we have so far....or both might end up by the wayside in the F1 game of musical chairs. 

 

But I'm going with Norris. 

[TheJammin]

I think Norris is in with the best shot as it currently stands, but it Merc can get Russell higher up the grid, or if Williams pull something special out of the hat next year, he could shine brightly.

 

The problem as ever is the competitive makeup of F1 is unbalanced so that only 3/4 people are ever realistic title contenders. Russell has the Merc link, but Hamilton isn't going anywhere yet, Bottas as doing what he needs to, and Ocon is lurking. So Russell has to prove himself better than at least Ocon and Bottas whilst driving a rubbish Williams to prove himself to anyone other that Toto.

 

Norris as someone else said is tied to McLaren who for the better part of a decade now haven't been challenging for wins let alone titles. The next Brit who doesn't race under a Thai flag is probably Aitken, and he isn't looking like race winner material if he ever got to F1. He's a Renault man and they have no free seats any time soon as it stands.

 

Honestly I see the next new Champions hailing from Netherlands, Monaco, Germany, or Finland maybe. Wouldn't mind if it was a smiling Australian though... no matter how unlikely.

[sopa]

 

Honestly I see the next new Champions hailing from Netherlands, Monaco, Germany, or Finland maybe. Wouldn't mind if it was a smiling Australian though... no matter how unlikely.

 

Germany? I don't think Schumi Jr is that special. Who else have you got in mind? Zendeli?

 

Finland? Bottas has to get very lucky, and no-one else coming up either.

Edited by sopa, 09 May 2019 - 11:19.

[maximilian]

Could be Russell as early as in a couple of years, if Lewis retires...

[sopa]

 

As for how long: I think that's generally hard to answer, but I think we are not far away from a generation change, so it can come far earlier than we believe. Who would have thought in 2006 for instance that Hamilton and Vettel will both be world champions in four years? Though again, this depends on the factors mentioned above.

 

Yeah, that's an interesting point.

 

The 2005-07 champions made their debut in 2001. And 2009 champion in 2000.

The drivers, who have won all titles since 2008 bar two (2009, 2016) made their debut in 2007. And 2016 champion in 2006.

 

Vettel by the looks of it has stopped winning titles, so once Hamilton stops too, we will have fully entered a new era. So it's just the matter of question when that happens, and who will capitalize. It looks like Leclerc has put himself into position to be at least one driver to capitalize on the opportunity provided Ferrari can deliver (which doesn't seem to be a sure thing).

 

So it will be the question of how does Mercedes play the game of preparing for eventual Hamilton's retirement and entering a new era with a new top driver. And whether they would prefer Verstappen or Russell for that. It has been widely argued that when Schumacher was nearing retirement age, Ferrari hired Raikkonen without even being bothered about whether Michael liked it any more, or not. So I guess next year Mercedes could also put someone, who they perceive as a great talent, next to Hamilton - without asking whether Lewis likes that new dynamic or not. So we will have some interesting times ahead before the 2021 silly season certainly.

 

So we will be starting to get new champions somewhere in the early part of the next decade for sure, so it will be the question of whether it is going to be a certain Dutchman, a Monegasque, a Brit, or somebody else. Or it will be some kind of a mixture of them.

[ensign14]

whether it is going to be a certain Dutchman, a Monegasque, a Brit, or somebody else. Or it will be some kind of a mixture of them.

 

So they're looking for a stoner who takes tea on his yacht.
 

[lustigson]

Archie Mountbatten

[TheJammin]

I say German as a very farfetched nationality just as I see Ferrari getting all excited about a Schumi world champ again and the wonderful press it would get. Of course, in the way of that is Mick's requirement to have incendiary talent, and a certain Charles Leclerc in the other car...

 

And Bottas could do a Rosberg this year, you never know. I see that happening sooner than I see Norris or Russell getting a title any time soon. I'd love to see Russell get a shot soon though.

[Sterzo]

I suspect it might be many years hence.  As a Norfolkman I'd love for George to get the WDC, though.

You've already had your share of celebrities.

[HeadFirst]

So they're looking for a stoner who takes tea on his yacht.
 

 

Casey Stoner is going to do F1????

[johnwilliamdavies]

Albon.

 

Verstappen goes to Mercedes/Ferrari when his contract's up. New regulations in 2021, and Newey strikes again with a fast, innovative chassis to go with the most powerful engine on the grid, Honda. Alex Albon being Red Bull's lead driver becomes 2021 driver's champion.

[BiggestBuddyLazierFan]

Billy Monger

Technology will advance so much that he will be able to drive F1 car as well as other drivers.

It is about time something revolutionary happens in F1

So Why not Billy Monger!?

[BRG]

Russell.

 

Or maybe Ticktum. 

[FirstnameLastname]

Russell.

Or maybe Ticktum.

Ticktum has a bit of a gob on him, would be good entertainment.

[noikeee]

I say German as a very farfetched nationality just as I see Ferrari getting all excited about a Schumi world champ again and the wonderful press it would get. Of course, in the way of that is Mick's requirement to have incendiary talent, and a certain Charles Leclerc in the other car...

And Bottas could do a Rosberg this year, you never know. I see that happening sooner than I see Norris or Russell getting a title any time soon. I'd love to see Russell get a shot soon though.

I don't know if German is a far-fetched nationality, there's always new German kids coming up. David Beckmann for example.

Is it clear enough I'm excited about the new F3 season, I've already named two drivers there as (unlikely but possible) potential world champions.

[Anja]

A bit of a pointless discussion as it's not really up to the drivers anyway. Whoever happens to land in a top team will get the honours. 

 

(F1 is a teams' championship and the drivers don't really matter, it's definitely not an angsty phase I'm going through, you don't understand mom, this is who I am now)