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When will Mercedes NOT win F1 championship?


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#101 Astandahl

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Posted 17 May 2019 - 09:41

How does that make sense? The drudgery of Mercedes winning everything is OK because it's mostly, but not even close to exclusively, done by a driver some consider the singular top driver, and needs no addressing - but if other drivers start would be winning in his stead... then it's a problem? :confused:

 

Mercedes domination of F1 is very bad for F1. It's not a coincidence that FOM keeps finding new ways to count their global audience.

They should have kept last year rules. Everything was working fine and maybe with Honda RB would have joined the fight for the title from the first race.

 

Instead we got the most boring season of all time.



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#102 P123

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Posted 17 May 2019 - 09:48

The level of dominance may not be entriely the fault of the car, but we do have a problem when the perception that it is all the car is so common. To the point where that's how people characterise  F1 as a series - all about the car not about the drivers. 
 
It's all very well sitting here saying it isn't, but the vast majority are not getting that message. F1 needs to tackle that in my opionion. Somehow.


The drivers are still the stars of the show, at least to the general public. But the perception that "anybody could do it", "just driving around in circles" has been there as long as I've been watching. I don't think a number of random winners (adds to the perception of it being 'all car') would win any of those sort of folks over. F1 fans seem to have an aversion to the car being important... of course it is, and always will be.

#103 Marklar

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Posted 17 May 2019 - 10:01

They should have kept last year rules. Everything was working fine and maybe with Honda RB would have joined the fight for the title from the first race.
 
Instead we got the most boring season of all time.

Indeed.

The FIA is also facing a different issue IMO

Normally if you want to stop a domination you ban very specific things a team excels in or you put more emphasis on something they dont excel in, and most of the time it is one or two very specific things. And they even tried this for Merc when they banned the trick suspension for instance. The thing with Mercedes though is that the entire package is good, so whatever you do they will probably always be there and thereabouts, and something like 2017-18 is probably close to the most you can get out of this car-wise, but then they have a great operation and driver, so they still win.

As other have said when more and more key figures are leaving they will probably be beaten. Or if the budget cap is so drastic that the top teams cant adjust to this, but it wont be because the budget cap will probably be only bit-by-bit introduced.

Most likely the most efficient way to deliberately stop them is to do something on the tyres. It's the only part of the car you cant directly influence in a short space of time. Its also what Red Bull held back in 2012 and for half of 2013 if we look back, but there comes the downside into play that Pirelli seemingly cant produce these sort of tyres without blowing them up...

 

In all: Mercedes has the best team of this decade, the best driver of this decade (Hamilton), and only if he stops and drivers like Bottas or Ocon keep beating Verstappen & LeClerc, yeah, then it is time to change the rules to stop Mercedes.

I do agree with the rest of your post: This bit however, I agree that that scenario you are describing is probably going to be the one that takes the credibility away for good, but yet this doesnt mean that the slightly better scenario (the best driver wins in the best car year after year) is a good one either. Whether rule changes are that efficient is a different topic all together - as mentioned - though.



#104 Astandahl

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Posted 17 May 2019 - 10:12

Indeed.

The FIA is also facing a different issue IMO

Normally if you want to stop a domination you ban very specific things a team excels in or you put more emphasis on something they dont excel in, and most of the time it is one or two very specific things. And they even tried this for Merc when they banned the trick suspension for instance. The thing with Mercedes though is that the entire package is good, so whatever you do they will probably always be there and thereabouts, and something like 2017-18 is probably close to the most you can get out of this car-wise, but then they have a great operation and driver, so they still win.

As other have said when more and more key figures are leaving they will probably be beaten. Or if the budget cap is so drastic that the top teams cant adjust to this, but it wont be because the budget cap will probably be only bit-by-bit introduced.

Most likely the most efficient way to deliberately stop them is to do something on the tyres. It's the only part of the car you cant directly influence in a short space of time. Its also what Red Bull held back in 2012 and for half of 2013 if we look back, but there comes the downside into play that Pirelli seemingly cant produce these sort of tyres without blowing them up...

 

I do agree with the rest of your post: This bit however, I agree that that scenario you are describing is probably going to be the one that takes the credibility away for good, but yet this doesnt mean that the slightly better scenario (the best driver wins in the best car year after year) is a good one either. Whether rule changes are that efficient is a different topic all together - as mentioned - though.

Well apparently every car with a high rake concept is trash with these tyres and new wings so the FIA actually helped Mercedes this time around.  We know they are the best team but if they are also helped by the rules...

 

Last year they performed really well  with the "special"  tyres ... What tyres we have this year? Yeaah...


Edited by Astandahl, 17 May 2019 - 10:13.


#105 Ben1445

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Posted 17 May 2019 - 10:15

The drivers are still the stars of the show, at least to the general public. But the perception that "anybody could do it", "just driving around in circles" has been there as long as I've been watching. I don't think a number of random winners (adds to the perception of it being 'all car') would win any of those sort of folks over. F1 fans seem to have an aversion to the car being important... of course it is, and always will be.


One minute the drivers are still the stars of the show and the next minute it’s all about the engineering in the team and car.

That’s the problem. F1 (and its fans) cannot seem to get their story straight on this. As usual, it’s doing that thing of trying to be two things at once. There’s too much infighting, and it’s damaging to the sport imo.

#106 Nonesuch

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Posted 17 May 2019 - 10:17

The thing with Mercedes though is that the entire package is good, so whatever you do they will probably always be there and thereabouts

 

That's true, but it's very rare for teams to dominate to the extent Mercedes is when they aren't spending three to five times as much as other teams. And yes, Ferrari is also spending a lot - and Ferrari would also be dominating like crazy if Mercedes wasn't there doing a slightly, but in F1 terms significant, better job.

 

F1 is still pretending it doesn't have two categories of teams, when it quite clearly does. It's a bit unfortunate they've already used the F2 name on GP2, but that would have been a good sub-category for the seven other teams. Seperate podium, seperate title, the whole works. Much more fun.



#107 Nonesuch

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Posted 17 May 2019 - 10:19

That’s the problem. F1 (and its fans) cannot seem to get their story straight on this.

 

Usually the clue is in the frustration or enthusiasm about who is winning. Things like Alonso's pathetic complaints about Newey primed his fan base to imitate him at one of his worst moments, and that's unfortunate.

 
These are all generally fine drivers. Some like Alonso stick out, others don't quite get up to the average level - but on the whole these are all great drivers.

Edited by Nonesuch, 17 May 2019 - 10:21.


#108 Vielleicht

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Posted 17 May 2019 - 10:19

One minute the drivers are still the stars of the show and the next minute it’s all about the engineering in the team and car.

That’s the problem. F1 (and its fans) cannot seem to get their story straight on this. As usual, it’s doing that thing of trying to be two things at once. There’s too much infighting, and it’s damaging to the sport imo.


Yes, I agree. Though when I said F1 should address those issues I should note didn’t mean that it needs total change. At a minimum it just needs to decide what it is and be totally clear about that. People can always vote with their feet so to speak be it manufactures, teams, drivers, fans - the lot.

#109 Marklar

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Posted 17 May 2019 - 10:22

Well apparently every car with a high rake concept is trash with these tyres and new wings so the FIA actually helped Mercedes this time around.  We know they are the best team but if they are also helped by the rules...
 
Last year they performed really well  with the "special"  tyres ... What tyres we have this year? Yeaah...

Ferrari performed very well with the special tyres in Silverstone as well though. Those sort of tyres always end up helping the team that has the quickest car. Last year having these tyres wouldn have been a issue, this year however....

Regarding the rules: The target of these rules were obviously to aid overtaking and with the believe that Ferrari finally caught up with Mercedes they probably didnt had this aspect anymore in mind. Really hard to explain otherwise, because many thought already back then that it will aid low rake cars, but OTOH even more puzzling why nobody else went for it. So maybe it wasnt this clear after all.

F1 is still pretending it doesn't have two categories of teams, when it quite clearly does. It's a bit unfortunate they've already used the F2 name on GP2, but that would have been a good sub-category for the seven other teams. Seperate podium, seperate title, the whole works. Much more fun.

Very true.

Edited by Marklar, 17 May 2019 - 10:24.


#110 sopa

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Posted 17 May 2019 - 10:23

Pirelli can't make tyres so crap that these would seriously hinder Mercedes. Pirelli tried to slow down Red Bull in 2013 to such an extent that the tyres became dangerous and had to be abandoned mid-season. Since then I think Pirelli isn't willing to take such a gamble any more.



#111 jstrains

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Posted 17 May 2019 - 10:26

F1 is Mercedes' new DTM. They will keep winning unless they have huge marketing benefit from winning like in the recent years



#112 Astandahl

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Posted 17 May 2019 - 10:56

Ferrari performed very well with the special tyres in Silverstone as well though. Those sort of tyres always end up helping the team that has the quickest car. Last year having these tyres wouldn have been a issue, this year however....

Regarding the rules: The target of these rules were obviously to aid overtaking and with the believe that Ferrari finally caught up with Mercedes they probably didnt had this aspect anymore in mind. Really hard to explain otherwise, because many thought already back then that it will aid low rake cars, but OTOH even more puzzling why nobody else went for it. So maybe it wasnt this clear after all.

Very true.

Silverstone was the only  track where they performed well but Bottas was just 3 seconds behind which means that Hamilton would have been faster or really really close.  Mercedes doing better with that tyres is a very simple fact.


Edited by Astandahl, 17 May 2019 - 11:10.


#113 sopa

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Posted 17 May 2019 - 11:02

 

I do agree with the rest of your post: This bit however, I agree that that scenario you are describing is probably going to be the one that takes the credibility away for good, but yet this doesnt mean that the slightly better scenario (the best driver wins in the best car year after year) is a good one either. Whether rule changes are that efficient is a different topic all together - as mentioned - though.

 

Interestingly though if Mercedes doesn't have a top driver on their books, it could make F1 more interesting.  :p  Not of course if the car is so dominant it can get 1-2 in every race anyway. But if the advantage is small and a top driver of another team can make a difference.

 

But I think Mercedes would like to have a top driver on their books post-Hamilton, because they know that if car advantage isn't much or is non-existent, it would be important to rely on a driver. Seemingly they have valued Hamilton a lot, so they would value the next star too. In this sense I don't see Mercedes as Williams, to who drivers were just an exchangable commodity and you could argue on occasion it was their downfall (i.e 1995).



#114 Nemo1965

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Posted 17 May 2019 - 11:03

 

I do agree with the rest of your post: This bit however, I agree that that scenario you are describing is probably going to be the one that takes the credibility away for good, but yet this doesnt mean that the slightly better scenario (the best driver wins in the best car year after year) is a good one either. Whether rule changes are that efficient is a different topic all together - as mentioned - though.

 

Well perhaps I am not the right person to debate this topic, because I honestly don't care about the perception or credibility of F1 in the broad sense that you are referring to. I actually dislike it that Max Verstappen is a Dutchman, because now everybody in my country has an opinion about F1 and I liked it better when I was about the only fan of motorracing in my family, of my friends and basically of all my acquaintances. 

 

F1 has a certain value for me and Mercedes dominance does not really undermine those value (at the moment). Because... (see my earlier post).



#115 Sterzo

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Posted 17 May 2019 - 12:40

One day we'll all be saying: "Ah, I was around in the Golden Age when Mercedes were brilliant, not like the rubbish teams these days, none of whom can put together a string of 1-2s or dominate like the great Mercedes did."



#116 robefc

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Posted 17 May 2019 - 12:46

One minute the drivers are still the stars of the show and the next minute it’s all about the engineering in the team and car.

That’s the problem. F1 (and its fans) cannot seem to get their story straight on this. As usual, it’s doing that thing of trying to be two things at once. There’s too much infighting, and it’s damaging to the sport imo.

 

The problem is F1 is essentially an engineering competition. They just need drivers in order to be able to 'test' which solution is better via a race.

 

The problem being that its the drivers that provide it with an appeal beyond the very hardcore fan.

 

Frankly it annoys me that I got so into it via being a Lewis fan because it's a really silly sport to follow if you're not into engineering/cars etc.



#117 sopa

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Posted 17 May 2019 - 12:47

One day we'll all be saying: "Ah, I was around in the Golden Age when Mercedes were brilliant, not like the rubbish teams these days, none of whom can put together a string of 1-2s or dominate like the great Mercedes did."

 

Did people look back at 1955 like that?  :p



#118 Sterzo

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Posted 17 May 2019 - 12:54

Did people look back at 1955 like that?  :p

Yes, very much so. There were endless articles in the motoring press about whether Mercedes would return (and lots of cliches about Teutonic efficiency).



#119 Pimpwerx

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Posted 17 May 2019 - 15:34

Mercedes are the best at car development right now. There is no rules change in the world that will stop that. When Lewis retires, and the rules are stable enough for the running order to normalize is when Mercedes will lose. Otherwise, the FIA is chasing a moving target. One that is very efficient at adaptation. I think the 2021 rules might only worsen the situation, unless another team hits a home run on their design.



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#120 Pimpwerx

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Posted 17 May 2019 - 15:42

They should have kept last year rules. Everything was working fine and maybe with Honda RB would have joined the fight for the title from the first race.

 

Instead we got the most boring season of all time.

Unfortunately, rules changes have to be planned in advance, and at the time the 2019 rules were drafted, people were clamoring for a change. Ha! I still remember a few people saying that changing the rules would be a mistake. They were right. Stability in the rules is what seems to generate parity, not drastic shifts. Mercedes' dominance was born of a drastic change in regulations. It allowed them to create a killer engine that took years to beat. They are the best at in-season development, and their decisions in winter are always the most-measured of all the teams. I don't know what the rules committee can do. It's damned if you do, damned if you don't. If they keep the rules stable, and Mercedes continues to win, people will accuse them of doing too little. If they change the rules, and Mercedes continues to win, people will accuse them of doing too much. Their job would be much easier if Mercedes didn't exist.

 

Maybe they can hope that Toto or some other top management leaves. Or if Lewis retires. Or if an asteroid hits the earth. Not much else seems plausible at this point.



#121 MasterOfCoin

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Posted 17 May 2019 - 16:57

When will Mercedes not win F1 championship?.....

 

Not in the foreseeable future....if fact they will win more championships before Williams get a sniff at a podium.....



#122 Astandahl

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Posted 17 May 2019 - 17:28

Unfortunately, rules changes have to be planned in advance, and at the time the 2019 rules were drafted, people were clamoring for a change. Ha! I still remember a few people saying that changing the rules would be a mistake. They were right. Stability in the rules is what seems to generate parity, not drastic shifts. Mercedes' dominance was born of a drastic change in regulations. It allowed them to create a killer engine that took years to beat. They are the best at in-season development, and their decisions in winter are always the most-measured of all the teams. I don't know what the rules committee can do. It's damned if you do, damned if you don't. If they keep the rules stable, and Mercedes continues to win, people will accuse them of doing too little. If they change the rules, and Mercedes continues to win, people will accuse them of doing too much. Their job would be much easier if Mercedes didn't exist.

 

Maybe they can hope that Toto or some other top management leaves. Or if Lewis retires. Or if an asteroid hits the earth. Not much else seems plausible at this point.

With this mercedes even Bottas can win so even if lewis retires nothing will change  ( because they'll get Max or someone else good enough to drive ).

 

giphy.gif



#123 danmills

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Posted 17 May 2019 - 17:44

Personally I think they will win back to back for a full decade. 



#124 BuddyHolly

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Posted 17 May 2019 - 23:46

Mercedes are the best at car development right now. There is no rules change in the world that will stop that. When Lewis retires, and the rules are stable enough for the running order to normalize is when Mercedes will lose. Otherwise, the FIA is chasing a moving target. One that is very efficient at adaptation. I think the 2021 rules might only worsen the situation, unless another team hits a home run on their design.

Tbh I don't see Mercedes running into problems when Lewis decides to call it a day.  I have a lot of respect for the guy and this is not meant as a slight against him in any way but quite frankly looking at the Merc as it is today, any F1 driver on the grid could jump into it and have a very very good chance of taking the title.   The car is just leaps and bounds above anything else. 

 

If he decides to go do something else next year I really don't see the team not being dominant again in 2020, not at all.



#125 NewMrMe

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 01:13

Sometimes the end of era can be closer than people think even if it doesn't appear to be the case.

 

For example, who would have thought in the middle of 1990 that a period of Williams domination was only 18 months away? Who would have thought in the middle of 2004 that Alonso and Renault would scoop the titles in 2005 and 2006?



#126 drionita

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 04:26

Did people look back at 1955 like that?  :p

Well, that's really far back in time, but people like me (not a McLaren fan here) can remember what happened 33 years later, in 1988 with McLarenHonda. I really admired what they achieved that year, a masterpiece in engineering, driving and  track-ops.



#127 Boxerevo

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 05:01

Waiting-Skeleton.jpg

"It is over."


Edited by Boxerevo, 18 May 2019 - 05:01.


#128 AnR

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 05:13

Tbh I don't see Mercedes running into problems when Lewis decides to call it a day.  I have a lot of respect for the guy and this is not meant as a slight against him in any way but quite frankly looking at the Merc as it is today, any F1 driver on the grid could jump into it and have a very very good chance of taking the title.   The car is just leaps and bounds above anything else. 

 

If he decides to go do something else next year I really don't see the team not being dominant again in 2020, not at all.

 

Marko has his say about if it's about the driver or not..

 

https://www.grandpri...od-mercedes-is/



#129 Hela

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 07:45

Marko has his say about if it's about the driver or not..

 

https://www.grandpri...od-mercedes-is/

 

Wonder what Marko thinks about the last 2 years if a second rate driver could have won the title in the Mercedes :)

 

I think the driver certainly made the difference in those years, don't you agree :)



#130 Collombin

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 07:56

Did people look back at 1955 like that? :p


At least we won't get a Mercedes 1-2-3-4 in 2019.

#131 P123

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 08:31

Tbh I don't see Mercedes running into problems when Lewis decides to call it a day.  I have a lot of respect for the guy and this is not meant as a slight against him in any way but quite frankly looking at the Merc as it is today, any F1 driver on the grid could jump into it and have a very very good chance of taking the title.   The car is just leaps and bounds above anything else. 
 
If he decides to go do something else next year I really don't see the team not being dominant again in 2020, not at all.


Not every year is like this year. However, if Merc maintain the advantage they have this year into next and beyond then obviously they are very attractive to any driver on the grid, especially to Max. I don't think Red Bull have anybody coming along that looks anywhere near Max to replace him with, and Leclerc looks a touch error prone. So if Merc maintain their level of performance, in three or four years time everybody will be bleating about who will stop Max and Merc. Unless they stick Russell in beside him.

As for 'even Bottas can win in it' brigade... well yeah, he's a junior series champ, he beat Massa three years on the bounce; a guy Kimi couldn't put away, and enjoyed a performance edge on Massa over one lap not too dissimilar to that which Alonso did. The main outlier is that he didn't win in it last year which has put a skewer in his reputation, but that wasn't entirely his fault.

#132 P123

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 08:34

Wonder what Marko thinks about the last 2 years if a second rate driver could have won the title in the Mercedes :)
 
I think the driver certainly made the difference in those years, don't you agree :)


He sounds a frustrated beaten man... wonder if he posts here.

#133 Shade

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 08:54

They will surely get Lewis' 7th WDC by the end of 2020. After that, it's in Lewis' hands if he wants to stay and try out the new regs and beat that record too! 



#134 Jovanotti

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 09:04

He sounds a frustrated beaten man... wonder if he posts here.

But he's right. It's remarkable how effortlessly competitive Mazepin was in his first outing in the car.

Edited by Jovanotti, 18 May 2019 - 09:04.


#135 Marklar

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 09:12

But he's right. It's remarkable how effortlessly competitive Mazepin was in his first outing in the car.

Well, if you have 120 laps, multiple outings on C5, upgrades, better track conditions and the caveat that they can run the car illegally in testing then it's not all that shocking that the GP3 runner-up can set these times.

I do agree with Marko though that I'm surprised that they allowed this to happen, cause inevitably the uninformed overreaction will dominate and I doubt that this is in Mercedes' interest (well, unless they dont care anymore and decided to pull out soon or Mazepin's dad paid for better publicity, a bit like Ferrari/Alfa probably gave Mick more performance runs in testing than you normally would)

Edited by Marklar, 18 May 2019 - 09:17.


#136 P123

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 09:18

But he's right. It's remarkable how effortlessly competitive Mazepin was in his first outing in the car.


... and Jack Aitken posted a faster testing time than Hulkenberg in the Renault, and Yelloly a quicker time than Perez on the same day in the Force India... even Pietro Fittipaldi was only a couple of tenths off Magnussen's best in the Haas. None spectacular drivers. Some context is required beyond the petulant bitterness of an elderly oddity prone nippy statements. You'd need to go back 10+ years (being generous, probably nearer 20 yrs now) to when a rookie would step into an F1 car and be well off the pace. I don't see it as remarkable- more a decent performance (he was on the softest of tyres afterall) which is generally in line with his peers. Plus seems he's another Stroll with lots of extra private testing.

#137 Claudius

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 16:14



Bit of an exaggeration on reliability and straight line performance (particularly as that was largely a consequence of Newey's design philosophy), perhaps plumped up and memorable due to Horner's constant bleating. Vettel had two mechanical related retirements in 2010, none in 2011 (one DNF was a puncture), two in 2012 and one in 2013. If anything Webber's utterly garbage starts spiced things up.

 

Just like Toto then.



#138 Claudius

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 16:17

The complaints about Mercs superiority today is nothing compared to the vitriol when Ferrari were dominating in the early 00. FIA even changed the points system.

 

That being said, Merc are doing a stellar job and deserve full credit. F1 has survived periods of domination before and will survive this one as well despite doom and gloom.



#139 SonGoku

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 16:18

I feel Mercedes wants to win 7 titles with Lewis Hamilton and they won't rest until they have achieved that.



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#140 FrontWing

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 18:09

Marko has his say about if it's about the driver or not..

https://www.grandpri...od-mercedes-is/

Talking sh1te as usual. You'd think he'd shut up after the rubbish her spouted pre-season.

#141 Ramon69

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 18:59

When Hamilton moves to Ferrari :stoned:

For sure, cause Hamilton is the only reason they are winning. 

 

To answer your question: when Ferrari finally stop screwing up and when Red Bull will have a stronger engine. In other words: NOT in the near future! 

The sad part isn't that Mercedes is winning though, as much as I'd love Ferrari to win, if the season is interesting and it goes down to the wire, I won't be complaining. But sadly, apart from 2017 & 2018, which provided some entertainment, we only had Mercedes dominance and it seems to be the case this year as well.


Edited by Ramon69, 18 May 2019 - 19:09.


#142 Marklar

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 19:20

For sure, cause Hamilton is the only reason they are winning. 

Hamilton is the Anti-Alonso: His cars suddenly get better.

Thus there is only one way to stop Mercedes: They should replace Hamilton with Alonso  :p 

please dont kill me



#143 Nonesuch

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 19:39

But he's right. It's remarkable how effortlessly competitive Mazepin was in his first outing in the car.

 

Not really, though. Even in junior categories drivers can usually string together a couple of good laps. F1 cars are not that different from the slightly slower F2 cars, and as Alonso said, the post-2014 cars are 'quite boring to drive'.

 

There are areas in which the better drivers separate themselves from the more average ones (still very good), but being able to put a couple of good times on the board isn't really one of them.

 

Put a competent young guy in a Mercedes, with which he has some familiarity, and he's probably going to be faster than others driving on the same day.

 

Edited by Nonesuch, 18 May 2019 - 19:40.


#144 THEWALL

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 19:58

The day their domination of F1 starts to have a negative effect in sales, marketing and PR.



#145 THEWALL

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 20:00

Hamilton is the Anti-Alonso: His cars suddenly get better.

Thus there is only one way to stop Mercedes: They should replace Hamilton with Alonso  :p 

please dont kill me

Alonso, the wrench in the works of F1... 



#146 apoka

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 20:36

When Merc decides another team winning improves their overall return on investment (due to PR, more viewers etc.).