51 replies to this topic

[sopa]

Having taken some interest in the matters of climate change recently, I thought it would make a significant debate about what to expect in the future in motorsports. 

 

For starters, people's opinions obviously vary on climate change, the causes, timescales and also outcomes. What I would mention though is that with each passing year the information and prospects given by scientists is getting more and more... umm... severe. Now we are threatened by human extinction by mid-century already... I'll leave it here though.

 

As for motorsports, what can we expect from the next few decades, or beyond that? Of course we know about decline in the interest of motorsports (or sports in general). It has been discussed in another topic already. But this discussion now is more severe. It could see the extinction of motorsports after a couple of decades, even if we leave the other aspects of society aside in this debate.

 

What would be the tipping points for motorsports? One thing is becoming more niche and losing audience, while society remains roughly the same. What would cause, i.e, manufacturers to pull out of all (top class) racing altogether? I assume it would take some kind of a economic collapse for that to achieve. How many years down the line?

 

Sorry for a bit of a morbid thread, but let's discuss.

[Risil]

A plausible scenario is that car manufacturers will drop all internal combustion engine racing from their R&D and marketing budgets. 

 

Another one is that driving noisy, internal combustion engined cars remains a pastime for the wealthy and dedicated, much as equestrian sports and horse racing are today. We'll see nothing like the investment that Merc, Honda etc currently put into the sport, but racing will go on. 

 

I expect that as the electric car industry develops, manufacturers will still want to use competition to market their products. There's something very clear and empirical about demonstrating that your cars can beat everyone else's cars around the track. That is, unless the consolidated conditions of 21st century capitalism lead to a mixture of monopolies and closed markets and nobody ever has to compete with anybody else.

[sopa]

Well, I think I agree that FE would have better longevity.

Were I to make a very wild prediction, 2021 F1 regulations are the last ones manufacturers are going to take part in. Hard to tell, when would the next regulations happen after these ones, but then I'd expect manufacturers to move out of F1 already. And who knows, what F1 would turn into then. FE will likely carry on after that though, with manufacturer involvement still.

[Peat]

As above, the OEM money well will dry up, but racing will continue in some form or other. 

 

Motorsports is a really easy target for Joe Public. It wouldn't matter to most people if motorsport ceased tomorrow, but there would be blood in the streets if you told them they couldn't fly anymore or that privately owned cars were no longer allowed to be used for journeys under 10km in urban areas.   

[Risil]

Personally I can't wait till motor sport is driven underground and we all have to go to motorway laybys in the middle of the night to watch Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton race in stripped out Vauxhall Astras.

[CPR]

A side note on climate change science: I wouldn't say that the scientific consensus has changed all that much in the last 30 years or so. Still, I'd say that there's much more confidence about the predictions and also some of the details (in terms of impacts) have changed. For example, initially it was thought that it was unlikely that the ice caps would melt significantly by 2100 but now we're starting to see predictions for much faster rises in sea levels.
 
What will this mean for motorsports? Well, I think anything that produces CO2 is going to be increasingly seen as bad. So unless there's a nice fuel that can be burnt in something like an ICE that doesn't produce CO2 at all (or only in tiny quantities) then something that is mechanically similar to the current motorsports is probably going to be very difficult (pretty much impossible for something mainstream).
 
I don't think hydrogen is going to cut it:


Is there any way to avoid this? Well, perhaps aeroplanes will still need to burn carbon fuels so couldn't motorsport use the same thing? I dunno, but perhaps this could work. There's some who think that even aeroplanes could go electric. If aeroplanes stay fuel based they'll probably have to move to some kind of carbon neutral fuel, so motorsport could at least do that - ie be net carbon neutral and just accept that CO2 is still being emitted by the cars themselves.
 
I think for mainstream car makers, electric very much looks like the future so they'll abandon ICEs sooner or later. For "F1" I think they'll either have to accept becoming much smaller or moving to electric once it becomes practical. It's possible that they'll be able to finesse things for a while with net carbon neutral fuels but I think even that will have its limits.


PS Kinda OT but the UK just had a 18 day streak of no coal power:
https://utilityweek....-run-comes-end/

The latest coal-free run has come to an end, with the record now set at 18 days, 6 hours and 10 minutes.

It is the longest stretch without any domestic coal generation in Great Britain since the world’s first public coal-fired power station was opened in London in 1882.

The run began on 17 May and finished at 9.20pm last night (4 June). During the period, Britain’s electricity needs were met with a mixture of gas (40 per cent), nuclear (20 per cent), wind (13 per cent), imports (11 per cent), biomass (8 per cent) and solar (7 per cent). Hydro and storage also made small contributions.

Edited by CPR, 07 June 2019 - 12:18.

[Vielleicht]

If motorsport can pitch itself as part of the soluton - a celebration and showcase of the technology that will help us mitigate the damage already well underway - then it absolutely has a commercial future as it has done for the last century. That does mean we will see less and less focus put on the ICE as we go on until we no longer need it.

 

The way I see it is the faster we can ween ourselves off fossil fuels as a society, the more socially acceptable it will be to have a throwback nostalgic heritage V12 running around somewhere. Leave it too late (to the crisis point) and even historic events will be frowed upon.

[krapmeister]

Personally I can't wait till motor sport is driven underground and we all have to go to motorway laybys in the middle of the night to watch Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton race in stripped out Vauxhall Astras.

 

Finally a set of regs (and budget) that Renault could win with.... Clio > Astra 

[Risil]

That's fighting talk!

[TomNokoe]

I think motorsports deserve to stand alone, as an escape for those who simply enjoy the thrill. We cannot pacify the entire planet.

[Lights]

I've often wondered what has more impact on the climate: cars racing on a track, or the entire global logistics of the circus that comes with it?

 

And in case of the latter, is motorsport really that much worse for the climate than other global sporting events?

[Vielleicht]

I've often wondered what has more impact on the climate: cars racing on a track, or the entire global logistics of the circus that comes with it?

 

And in case of the latter, is motorsport really that much worse for the climate than other global sporting events?

Everyone is going to have to reduce or eliminate emissions in every aspect of their existence without free pass, so to me this is kind of a moot point. There's no room for 'not my problem' or finger pointing to industries/countries that pollute at least as much to avoid taking action in a successful response to the threat.

[Tsarwash]

[Vielleicht]

You know what - I would totally watch point-to-point solar races with the right coverage.

[Sash1]

IMHO the VAG group is transforming to full electric development. ICE/Hybrid is no longer of any interest to race. The ID3.1 car has been announced and is close to production, their ID.R just put a 2nd best lap in on the Nordschleife. (Just as Audi's e-tron, Skoda Citygo electric, etc. Mercedes has changed the Smart production to electric only and announced the EQ platform) By 2030 European cites will start to close neighbourhoods to fossif fuel driven vehicles (Amsterdam). And there is legislation on the way that will ban the sale of new fossis fuel driven vehicles. (Norway 2025-2030, France 2040, Germany 2030 targets). Diesel engine development and production is dropping rapidly. Manufacturers are already moving away from ICE's. There is no point in R&D racing budgets, except for electric platforms. And with the latter there is a question if the customer base and youth is interested in those racing series.
You can always do club racing or a Porsche/Renault Megane/Cinquecento cup. But when the sale of fossil fuel cars comes to an end, so will those series.

 

Personaly I wonder if there is any point in changing anything engine specific for the 2021 F1 rules. What's the point. 9 years later the whole manufacturer platform has to be electric. Even the hypercars. There is little to gain anymore. Better put R&D money in developing new ultra efficient cheap batteries and electric engines, software, fast charging platforms (a goal of <15s 80.000 kWh load pitstops for example). 

 

There is no long-term effect. In fact, there is an immediate short term need to change complete manufacturing concepts to the electric market. If you are not at the front with new technologies, patents, efficient production lines, acces to raw materials, fast charging networks and whatever, a manufacturer will cease to excist. Within 10 to 20 years. That is not going to stop. I do not really like it, but it is the new now.

 

[beachdrifter]

The obvious answer for F1 is biofuel

https://motorsport.n...021,138279.html

[Fastcake]

As long as we have machines with independent propulsion, people will race them. I have zero worries about the future of motorsport. What the motors are may change but the sport will survive and can even thrive.

The near future is going to present big challenges however. Many different forms of motorsport are highly dependent on car manufacturers, but the car industry now sees its future in full electrification. Now you can like or loathe that, but it’s a fact you’ll have to accept. As will every motorsport series currently using internal combustion engines and dependent upon manufacturers to build them. How they deal with manufacturers pulling out, which they eventually must, is going to be interesting.

There’s another point about the effects of Formula One’s massive circus crisscrossing about the globe. But we can work on that while also cutting costs for the teams. Do we really need the massive hospitality units transported in 20 trucks driving across Europe? What about the upwards of 100 personal teams take to each race? There was a restriction in place with the RRA and all teams got by then. You could cut the cost both monetarily and environmentally without much effort.

[Nathan]

Hopefully it means more wet races.

[Lights]

Everyone is going to have to reduce or eliminate emissions in every aspect of their existence without free pass, so to me this is kind of a moot point. There's no room for 'not my problem' or finger pointing to industries/countries that pollute at least as much to avoid taking action in a successful response to the threat.

 

You're reading far too much in my post. I'm not saying F1 should avoid taking action.

 

What my point actually was is that there is logically a lot of discussion regarding the motors that drive cars forward, but my suspicion is that the impact of the F1 circus traveling the globe has a larger footprint. So perhaps that's an area that deserves more focus as more gain can be made in it. And this applies to any organization/sport that mass-travels globally. 

[Tsarwash]

You're reading far too much in my post. I'm not saying F1 should avoid taking action.

 

What my point actually was is that there is logically a lot of discussion regarding the motors that drive cars forward, but my suspicion is that the impact of the F1 circus traveling the globe has a larger footprint. So perhaps that's an area that deserves more focus as more gain can be made in it. And this applies to any organization/sport that mass-travels globally. 

 

I agree with you. But also this can be seen as what F1 and other motorsports stand for. When Arsenal and Chelsea both travelled three thousand miles to play each other, it seemed ridiculous, (and it was), but these teams are the pinnacle of an activity that anybody can get involved in without any specialist equipment or venue. Motorsports not only requires expensive equipment and venues, but at the moment it is impossible to personally get involved without burning fossil fuels.

 

Even British football probably creates more CO2 than F1 does at the moment, but that will be because the amount of people involved must be at least a hundred times higher. 

[CPR]

Hopefully it means more wet races.

 

Well, higher temperatures means more water in the atmosphere and hence more rain.

 

However, for individual locations it could be drier or could be wetter, depending on the effects on the local weather patterns. A lot of "weather" is actually generated from the temperature difference between the equator and the poles and the poles are going to heat up a lot more and the equator not much at all so that temperature difference is going to shrink a fair bit and that's going to have interesting effects on weather patterns...

[Vielleicht]

You're reading far too much in my post. I'm not saying F1 should avoid taking action.

 

What my point actually was is that there is logically a lot of discussion regarding the motors that drive cars forward, but my suspicion is that the impact of the F1 circus traveling the globe has a larger footprint. So perhaps that's an area that deserves more focus as more gain can be made in it. And this applies to any organization/sport that mass-travels globally. 

Oh no, I got that*. I just think it should be equal focus on all aspects of the operation, no excuses.

 

We should be talking about reducing overall event emissions as much as we should about what is happening in the cars themselves. Not more.

 

FE has released reports for this after each season (buried on their website somewhere) and they do show a reduction in the overall event footprint from 25,000 tCO2-eq in Season 1 down to 13,500 tCO2-eq in Season 3, with prgress predomenantly made in areas such as transport, event infrastucture and food sourcing. We do need to talk about this stuff more than we do now, I can agree on that.

 

_{*my reposnse does centre more around a general response rather than F1's response. Apologies for the confusion.}

Edited by Vielleicht, 07 June 2019 - 15:02.

[juicy sushi]

I think motorsport will struggle, just because initially it will be much harder for certain genres of the sport to continue.  I cannot see certain off-road/rally/raid formats surviving if certain ecosystems become so fragile that much of the area becomes reserved and blocked from human development.  Also, until battery technology gets to the point where charging and range equal ICE engines, a lot of endurance formats may be put under a lot of pressure.

 

Overall, much of motorsports may be able to survive in some ways, but it might be more limited, and some of the events may be more restricted.  But public spectacle will not die out because of climate change, and our response to it, and despite what some may wish to claim, all fun will not end.  

 

I think a lot of the fear of autonomous electric cars will prove unfounded.  Electric racing will lose some of the sound, but other aspects will remain.  Autonomous cars increasingly seem like something which cannot be delivered as claimed, and possibly never will be.  

[PayasYouRace]

As long as we have machines with independent propulsion, people will race them. I have zero worries about the future of motorsport. What the motors are may change but the sport will survive and can even thrive.

 

That should be end of thread really. I agree. We're not going to lose our lust for competition, but we might just have to adjust our expectations of what form it might take.

[AustinF1]

Motorsport will be a target & is likely proper f***** long-term imho, justified or not. Cars have been blamed for climate change for decades, whether that change was the Ice Age that was going to kill us all or the warming that's going to kill us all. Will motorsport survive? Probably, but the freedom to race what you want to likely will not survive imho.

Edited by PayasYouRace, 07 June 2019 - 18:43.
Please don't discuss moderation on the public forum

[BobbyRicky]

Motorsport will be a target & is likely proper f***** long-term imho, justified or not. Cars have been blamed for climate change for decades, whether that change was the Ice Age that was going to kill us all or the warming that's going to kill us all. Will motorsport survive? Probably, but the freedom to race what you want to likely will not survive imho.

 

 

As long as human-beings are competitive they will race with whatever they have. Be it electric, hydrogen, booze- or even nuclear-powered cars (whatever the future brings).

Motorsport will be fine.

[CPR]

The obvious answer for F1 is biofuel

https://motorsport.n...021,138279.html

 

Using increasing amounts of biofuel would be fairly smart... so long as it's bleeding edge biofuel using the latest technology. ie not food crops. Genetically engineered algae directly producing fuel... or something along those lines.

[AustinF1]

As long as human-beings are competitive they will race with whatever they have. Be it electric, hydrogen, booze- or even nuclear-powered cars (whatever the future brings).

Motorsport will be fine.

Right. But what will they be allowed to have?

[Nathan]

We are a society still talking about travelling via space, correct?  If that is not a colossal waste of resources, then motorsport is going to be safe.  The reality is the group of people that make the biggest noise about these things are a small minority.  I can see some European countries banning motor racing on a couple of environmental grounds, but in critical places like U.S., UK, Japan, Italy and countless corrupt nations I don't see that happening.

[ArrowsLivery]

Compared to tourism and all sorts of other entertainment options, motorsport’s carbon output is hilariously small. Whether a few rich guys race cars on the weekend or not isn’t going to kill our planet. China constantly building more and more coal factories to power their “high-tech” EVs and highly polluting industry will.

The problem is FIA and Jean Todt and their supreme incompetence in running motorsport. Under his reign European motorsport was butchered in record time. US motorsport had mostly escaped his wrath over the previous years, but IndyCar and IMSA have announced disasterous decisions over the past month. I wouldn’t be surprised if there was significant pressure from Europe.

[sopa]

I personally suspect motorsport as such (apart from manufacturers pulling out) would suffer due to collapse of international economy, not so much due to direct banning. In those conditions it would be very tough to organize world-wide world championships, for example. You could compare it to a war-time situation, when we also didn't have racing going on, because people had more serious matters to deal with.

[Sterzo]

Predictions are notoriously unreliable but it seems probable that:

• Manufacturers will turn away from internal combustion-powered racing, taking their funding with them.
• Spectators will reduce in number as enthusiasm for cars wanes.
• The appeal of noisy toxic engines will be seen by many as an anachronism.
• Motor racing will return to being a niche sport as it was in the fifties and sixties.

The key thing is to change the sport so that it could make that transition. Reduce costs, reduce costs, and reduce costs.

[BRG]

We are a society still talking about travelling via space, correct?  

 

Indeed.  Led by none other than Elon Musk with his Space X concern.  The same Elon Musk whose Tesla cars and battery business are helping to save the planet that he is trying so hard to leave.  Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde have nothing on Dr Elon and Mr Musk.

[pdac]

We are a society still talking about travelling via space, correct?  If that is not a colossal waste of resources, then motorsport is going to be safe.  The reality is the group of people that make the biggest noise about these things are a small minority.  I can see some European countries banning motor racing on a couple of environmental grounds, but in critical places like U.S., UK, Japan, Italy and countless corrupt nations I don't see that happening.

 

Business people, especially, are continually flying in environmentally unfriendly planes when we have such great communications options that most could stay put and still conduct business as usual. As a global society we like pick one example (because it's the one we can do something about) and decided that it is the most important example or the problem (sometimes we are hoodwinked into taking it as the only example). I think that is what's happening right here.

 

Motorsport will probably lose a lot of the support from the big manufacturers, but it can happily continue if they choose to ignore changes in general motoring (which is what they should do).

[Nathan]

Will loss of that support create another golden era?

[Kalmake]

Big car companies are not going to stop sponsoring auto sport. They will stop sponsoring fossil power. All the big series will change engines to suit.

[pdac]

Will loss of that support create another golden era?

 

One can hope.

[pdac]

Big car companies are not going to stop sponsoring auto sport. They will stop sponsoring fossil power. All the big series will change engines to suit.

 

This is true - they will sponsor non-fossil-powered series. But if the fossil-powered series continue, which will be more popular and successful?

[Ben1445]

This is true - they will sponsor non-fossil-powered series. But if the fossil-powered series continue, which will be more popular and successful?

Depends on who is going to be willing and able to pay for fossil fuelled racing

[Kalmake]

This is true - they will sponsor non-fossil-powered series. But if the fossil-powered series continue, which will be more popular and successful?

I reckon they have enough money and influence to make sure their series are on top.

[F1matt]

Why do people bring horse racing into the argument? It has no comparison whatsoever, breeders didn’t race horses so they could sell more horses, it was a hobby of the wealthy to prove that their horse was the best. It is now an industry that can sustain itself through the sale of horses, betting levies and the paying public, which in turn brings in TV money. 

 

 

Motorsport has always had very limited appeal, we are not going to get people having nights out at the motor racing, it has corporate hospitality at the GP’s but having a works outing on a wet Sunday at Donnington to watch some club event is never going to take off.

 

Horse racing has found itself a very lucrative market which will ensure its success for generations to come.

Edited by F1matt, 10 June 2019 - 14:28.

[Nathan]

The analogy is more related to the wanning in public interest as technology and culture drew interest away.

[F1matt]

Horse racing events in the UK are the 2^nd most attended sporting events after football, 39% of attendees are women which is way higher than football, no doubt due to the success of ladies’ day at courses. There is certainly no waning in public interest.

 

 

 A better comparison for the current plight of Motorsport might be Chariot racing or gladiators fighting in the Colosseum.  

[pdac]

Depends on who is going to be willing and able to pay for fossil fuelled racing

 

That's the point - there will be little money, so they will have to get used to reverting to cheap solutions.

[pdac]

There are several things happening right now:

 

1. There is a decline in interest in motorsports

2. There is tremendous competition for people's spare time

3. There's a big push to convert the general public over to using electric vehicles

4. There's evidence that car ownership is stating to diminish

5. There's commercial interest in providing alternatives to personal car ownership

 

Take all of these things on board and I would say that car racing is going to struggle in the future. Maybe not in the next 10 or 20 years, but I don't see there being the commercial interest being there for very long.

 

In the immediate, manufacturers are going to abandon non-electric series more and more. This may lead to more electric series, but without an established background and with waning interest in motorsports, these series might not succeed for very long.

 

As time goes on, I see private car ownership giving way to alternative commercial services. When that starts to happen, the manufacturers will be more interested in selling to these service providers and that may not involve showing off what they can achieve by going racing.

 

So that will just leave a bunch of enthusiasts and very little money coming from anywhere other than private sources. To survive, series will have to be cheap and exciting.

Edited by pdac, 10 June 2019 - 18:24.

[Viryfan]

France is debatting laws to ban car advertising for cars emitting over 60g/km of Co2

 

it has low chances to go through but still.

[Sterzo]

Why do people bring horse racing into the argument? It has no comparison whatsoever...

It's an answer to those who argue that car racing will decline or disappear when the car goes out of use as a mode of transport.

Horses did go out of use as a mode of transport yet, as you point out, horse racing continues to flourish.

[Tsarwash]

France is debatting laws to ban car advertising for cars emitting over 60g/km of Co2

 

it has low chances to go through but still.

That would be the end of the French GP then. And a lot of people have been campaigning and working for a long time to ensure it's return. 

[Izzyeviel]

I personally suspect motorsport as such (apart from manufacturers pulling out) would suffer due to collapse of international economy, not so much due to direct banning. In those conditions it would be very tough to organize world-wide world championships, for example. You could compare it to a war-time situation, when we also didn't have racing going on, because people had more serious matters to deal with.

 

Indeed. Even if its only as bad as predicted, climate change is going to bring about great economic & societal disruption.

[Viryfan]

That would be the end of the French GP then. And a lot of people have been campaigning and working for a long time to ensure it's return. 

 

According to French governement, they will put some messages in car ads inviting people to take public transport.