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Countdown to Hamilton overtaking Schumacher records


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#1 kevins

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 12:54

Britain 2019 ~ Wins - 80 / 91 ~ WDC - 5 / 7

 

 

So, since Lewis won last weekend and with the Bottas/Ferrari challenge seeming to fade, Lewis seems to be odds on for another WDC. So, for me the excitement is with Lewis on 78 wins, there seems a real possibility he could take Schumacher's record.

When Schumacher had win 91 in 2006, we must remember he was just 1 away from equaling the total of 2nd and 3rd placed Prost and Senna, two GOAT contenders (not that I want to discuss relative merits here - just saying for context). I, personally, did not think I'd see that exceeded in my lifetime, but here I am posting this thread!


I think he is contracted to Mercedes till 2020, and I read he says he thinks he has another 5 years in F1, so he should have at least this and next year of many wins and who knows after that. Every year  since 2014 he has had at least 9 wins, and averaged 3.5 a year with McLaren. With any luck, he should reach Schumacher's wins and WDCs by 2020??

 

Just to say, I'm neither a fan nor have an axe to grind for either Schumacher or Hamilton and did not intend this thread to be a SCH vs HAM one! Just to discuss the possibility of the records being beaten, wand when, and what it might take to break HAMs records in the future!

So, hopefully not doing a Murry Walker on him and jinxing it, here are some unnecessary charts to build the excitement!!

wins.png

zaefQwB.png

 

Number of wins to the number of races - see post 64 from Nonesuch

 

wdc.png

 

EDIT to add another graph

 

F1-winners-record-progression.png

(By user:Bamkin - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wiki...curid=73401838)

 

Does anyone know how to make a graph like this for WDC progression. Well anyway it was Fangio from 1957 to 2004.

 

 

I plan to update this with each win. Or put a new chart in a new post?


Edited by kevins, 15 July 2019 - 13:27.


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#2 Anja

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 12:57

F1 is a team sport and individual achievements don't matter. Come at me.*  :cool:

 

 

*not really



#3 Marklar

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 12:58

That topic title broke my phone.



#4 CL16

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 13:01

I think he’ll finish around 100 wins and around 120 poles.

#5 kevins

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 13:02

That topic title broke my phone.

Really sorry - I wrote it offline and pasted the body text into the title by mistake and did not notice till too late! Hope the mods can fix! And that your phone has a speedy recovery :)


Edited by kevins, 13 June 2019 - 13:02.


#6 Maustinsj

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 13:15

Nice thread idea.

 

Pity it will be ruined within 2 pages...



#7 GoldenColt

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 13:19

This thread will end up the same way communism did - decent and well intentioned in theory, horribly executed in practice.



#8 SenorSjon

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 13:30

I still feel a bit sad every time this sort of thread comes up. 



#9 kevins

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 13:31

This thread will end up the same way communism did - decent and well intentioned in theory, horribly executed in practice.

LOL well I don't post here much so will take your word. Hopefully not though. BTW i'm not a big fan of Lewis, pretty neutral either way, but just wanted to document a new record for wins.

 

CL16 yes 100 is on the cards I think. The 120 poles may be harder I feel as drivers usually loos the 1 lap pace before race pace and craft.

 

Thanks to whoever changed the title!



#10 goldenboy

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 13:35

The win tally is impressive I must say. Unbelievable that the record could (will) be broken so quickly.

Also, shows what a bad state F1 competition is in, particularly when number 3 on that list is still an active driver in his prime.

#11 SenorSjon

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 13:39

The win tally is impressive I must say. Unbelievable that the record could (will) be broken so quickly.

Also, shows what a bad state F1 competition is in, particularly when number 3 on that list is still an active driver in his prime.

 

Mostly this, with so much wins and poles since 2014 taken by Mercedes.



#12 Beri

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 13:49

Nice thread idea.

Pity it will be ruined within 2 pages...


Four posts to be more precise..

The win tally is impressive I must say. Unbelievable that the record could (will) be broken so quickly.

Also, shows what a bad state F1 competition is in, particularly when number 3 on that list is still an active driver in his prime.



#13 Retrofly

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 13:57

Didn't take long for people to look at the negatives :lol: it would be nice if this thread could be more statistics orientated. Like Hamiltons win rate Vs Schumacher, what Vettel would need to beat both. Who's next to take a shot at the records, what does Max maybe need to do etc.



#14 Beri

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 14:04

I think so too. I would root for a thread where all things aside are being dropped, like the dominance of the team or the favors of being the key driver in the team. Just hard numbers.
Because looking at it this way, and even tho I'm no Hamilton fan (far from it), his stats are ridiculously impressive to say the least.

Edited by Beri, 13 June 2019 - 14:05.


#15 Anuity

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 14:06

It's incredible that this record is going to be beaten so quickly.  I expect Lewis to pass it sometime within a few races next year. Remarable.



#16 Claudius

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 14:10

Four posts to be more precise..
 

 

Don't be such a snowflake, nothing in that post ruined anything.

This thread like others is about discussing topics, not worshiping 44.



#17 Jon83

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 14:11

His win rate since 2014 must be mental!



#18 Claudius

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 14:12

I think there are several factors here.

The drivers in general start driving in F1 at a younger age.

Unprecedented reliability.

Seasons have 20 + races

And Mercs incrdible dominance.

 

I think he will brake 100, no doubt about it.


Edited by Claudius, 13 June 2019 - 14:12.


#19 Marklar

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 14:16

Didn't take long for people to look at the negatives :lol: it would be nice if this thread could be more statistics orientated. Like Hamiltons win rate Vs Schumacher, what Vettel would need to beat both. Who's next to take a shot at the records, what does Max maybe need to do etc.

Throwing some random stuff out here

After 236 GPs

             HAM       MSC
WDC          5         7
Wins         78        85
Poles        85        66
Podiums      141       144
Fastest Laps 42        69
Front Rows   138       108
Laps lead    4188      4824
Kms lead     21141     22745
GPs lead     135       132


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#20 Marklar

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 14:18

I think he will brake 100, no doubt about it.

You are the first person I've ever seen writing brake instead of break, when the common mistake is always the other way around :p


Edited by Marklar, 13 June 2019 - 14:19.


#21 Claudius

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 14:19

You are the first person I've ever seen writting brake instead of break, when the common mistake is always the other way around :p

 

Haha there has to be a first in everything.

:lol:



#22 KWSN - DSM

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 14:24

 

Throwing some random stuff out here

After 236 GPs

             HAM       MSC
WDC          5         7
Wins         78        85
Poles        85        66
Podiums      141       144
Fastest Laps 42        69
Front Rows   138       108
Laps lead    4188      4824
Kms lead     21141     22745
GPs lead     135       132

 

Good inllustration of how good Hamilton is in context of all time greats, bay and large they are mirrors of each other... higher number of races in a season make for a faster way to break the records, when in context of same number is obvious how equally good they were / are.

 

I would not be surprised if Hamilton makes it 12 times WDC, and end close to 120 wins, I see little from him which makes me think he is leaving any time soon.

 

:cool:



#23 SenorSjon

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 14:27

 

Throwing some random stuff out here

After 236 GPs

             HAM       MSC
WDC          5         7
Wins         78        85
Poles        85        66
Podiums      141       144
Fastest Laps 42        69
Front Rows   138       108
Laps lead    4188      4824
Kms lead     21141     22745
GPs lead     135       132

 

I believe Schumachers pole stat is heavily influenced by all the messing about in qualy formats. 

2003-2005 had one lap shootout on race fuel.

2006 current system, but again on race fuel.



#24 7WDC

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 14:29

That will happen (somewhere next year :cry:  ):

- Hamilton is a great driver, altough not in Schumacher, Senna or Prost league, in my opinion

- 25% more races per year and counting

- circuits much more forgiving (run off áreas… :down:)

- almost 100% relaibility

- Mercedes domination from 2014 till 202(put a number)...., only 1 year later from Hamilton arriving the team

- rain races more rare witch led to less retires/mistakes

- Rosberg retirement

- Alonso was no opposition during recent years

- FIA change regulations in 2003 and 2005 to stop Ferrari (qualy format, tyres, etc.) - Schumacher could have more poles and wins

But as Schumacher said records are made to be broken… :clap:


Edited by 7WDC, 13 June 2019 - 14:45.


#25 ExEd

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 14:34

That will happen (somewhere next year :cry: ):
- Hamilton is a great driver, altough not in Schumacher, Senna or Prost league, in my opinion
- 25% more races per year and counting
- circuits much more forgiving (run off áreas… :down:)
- almost 100% relaibility
- Mercedes domination from 2014 till 202(put a number)...., only 1 year later from Hamilton arriving the team
- rain races more rare witch led to less retires/mistakes
- Rosberg retirement
- Alonso was no opposition during recente years
- FIA change regulations in 2003 and 2005 to stop Ferrari (qualy format, tyres, etc.) - Schumacher could have more poles and wins
But as Schumacher said record are made to be broken… :clap:

Idk if you are serious or not ....

Edit : Please tell me you are trolling ...

Edited by ExEd, 13 June 2019 - 14:37.


#26 SonGoku

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 14:38

This is more something for F1 nerds. Lewis is just enjoying himself and extending his career as long as he likes. He will go as far as he can.

#27 7WDC

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 14:43

Idk if you are serious or not ....

Edit : Please tell me you are trolling ...

 

Sorry to disapoint you.

Feel free to say why you don`t agree with me...



#28 Dratini

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 14:45

lol if people are going to get upset whenever someone brings up the fact that there are serious variable factors that have influenced these accolades then this thread is nothing more than a Hamilton circle jerk.



#29 BuddyHolly

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 14:46

You can't take anything away from Lewis, he's done amazing but I think its daft to compare as they are completely different eras with huge differences.

Can't we just say they are both awesome drivers and the top of their respective era?


Edited by BuddyHolly, 13 June 2019 - 14:47.


#30 Nonesuch

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 14:48

 

Throwing some random stuff out here

After 236 GPs

             HAM       MSC
WDC          5         7
Wins         78        85
Poles        85        66
Podiums      141       144
Fastest Laps 42        69
Front Rows   138       108
Laps lead    4188      4824
Kms lead     21141     22745
GPs lead     135       132

 

And those races took place in 2007-2019 (all of Hamilton's) and 1991-early 2006 for Schumacher.

 

In other words, Schumacher's years include 1991, 1992, 1993, 1996, 1999, as well as 2005.

 

And he still leads everything except the qualifying-related stats.

 

Solid job, as one expects from The Champ. :cool:



#31 GoldenColt

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 14:49

3RxJ.gif



#32 Marklar

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 14:50

lol if people are going to get upset whenever someone brings up the fact that there are serious variable factors that have influenced these accolades then this thread is nothing more than a Hamilton circle jerk.

I think the problem is a bit that you can all apply those arguments mentioned above to Schumacher as well. He too had very dominant cars, even with absolute lapdogs as team mates the entire time. He already was enjoying perfect reliability. Tracks were already starting to be more forgiving during his time. He arguably was also racing in a weaker era (Hakkinen was most of the time his best competitor).

It always works both ways. One thing is for sure though. Both are extremely flattered compared to many other Greats.


Edited by Marklar, 13 June 2019 - 14:50.


#33 Cornholio

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 14:57

I believe Schumachers pole stat is heavily influenced by all the messing about in qualy formats. 

2003-2005 had one lap shootout on race fuel.

2006 current system, but again on race fuel.

 

True, although even outside of that I don't recall Schumacher as a relentless pole machine. Both 1995 and 2002 in particular Williams took a lot of poles, but there'd be a feeling of inevitability that Schumacher would come to the front during the course of the race.



#34 7WDC

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 15:06

True, although even outside of that I don't recall Schumacher as a relentless pole machine. Both 1995 and 2002 in particular Williams took a lot of poles, but there'd be a feeling of inevitability that Schumacher would come to the front during the course of the race.

  The most memorable poles from Schumacher that i remember are Suzuka (1998, 99, 2000 and 2001). His duels with Mika there in 98, 99 and 2000 were phenomenal...


Edited by 7WDC, 13 June 2019 - 15:11.


#35 Dratini

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 15:06

I think the problem is a bit that you can all apply those arguments mentioned above to Schumacher as well. He too had very dominant cars, even with absolute lapdogs as team mates the entire time. He already was enjoying perfect reliability. Tracks were already starting to be more forgiving during his time. He arguably was also racing in a weaker era (Hakkinen was most of the time his best competitor).

It always works both ways. One thing is for sure though. Both are extremely flattered compared to many other Greats.

Certainly I don't pretend that Hamilton is the only driver to have benefited from such conditions. You can't acknowledge that with Hamilton's numbers without also realising that Schumacher was in much the same situation. My point of view is just that this is a forum, the purpose of which is to have discussion. Obviously looking at these numbers there is going to be discussion to be had about the manner in which the stats were accrued, and it seems pointless to request people not to do that.



#36 Shuffle

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 15:09

True, although even outside of that I don't recall Schumacher as a relentless pole machine. Both 1995 and 2002 in particular Williams took a lot of poles, but there'd be a feeling of inevitability that Schumacher would come to the front during the course of the race.

I don't think that was necessarily Schumacher's fault though, in 1995 the Williams was the superior car and in 2001/2 the Michelin's were the better quali tyre combined with the monstrous BMW engine that Williams had.

 

On topic, I think Hamilton will pretty quickly overtake MSC, he'll win the title this year and next year and the amount of wins he racks up over these two seasons will take him above 91. More titles after that would be down to whether or not Mercedes do well in the 2021- era, and I'd be very surprised if they didn't. Maybe if Mercedes binned Bottas and brought Verstappen in, that would stop him, but why would they do that? There's no point.



#37 7WDC

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 15:10

That will happen (somewhere next year :cry:  ):

- Hamilton is a great driver, altough not in Schumacher, Senna or Prost league, in my opinion

- 25% more races per year and counting

- circuits much more forgiving (run off áreas… :down:)

- almost 100% relaibility

- Mercedes domination from 2014 till 202(put a number)...., only 1 year later from Hamilton arriving the team

- rain races more rare witch led to less retires/mistakes

- Rosberg retirement

- Alonso was no opposition during recent years

- FIA change regulations in 2003 and 2005 to stop Ferrari (qualy format, tyres, etc.) - Schumacher could have more poles and wins

But as Schumacher said records are made to be broken… :clap:

 

Forgot to add Schumacher accident in 1999.



#38 P123

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 15:10

Is this the topic where people come to defend Schumacher's honour? It will be a while yet before his win record is broken, if it is broken.

Obviously both had some favourable circumstances to mount up such stats, and they aren't entirely directly comparable.

#39 SenorSjon

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 15:14

I think the problem is a bit that you can all apply those arguments mentioned above to Schumacher as well. He too had very dominant cars, even with absolute lapdogs as team mates the entire time. He already was enjoying perfect reliability. Tracks were already starting to be more forgiving during his time. He arguably was also racing in a weaker era (Hakkinen was most of the time his best competitor).

It always works both ways. One thing is for sure though. Both are extremely flattered compared to many other Greats.

 

It went up to 11 after the mid noughties though, with more and more Tilkedromes entering the fray with sheer countless run-offs. Even Spa got butchered in 2007. But comparison threads have been tried before. It is opening pandora's box to find a can of worms.

 

True, although even outside of that I don't recall Schumacher as a relentless pole machine. Both 1995 and 2002 in particular Williams took a lot of poles, but there'd be a feeling of inevitability that Schumacher would come to the front during the course of the race.

 

1995 had a fast Williams car, but usually clumsy in race tactics. Schumacher won a race 6 times while Hill or Coulthard had pole. He only lost once from pole against a Williams driver.

2002 the Michelin tire warmed up faster and back then, qualy beasts (hello BMW) were still allowed. In race trim however, they were no match against Schumacher. 



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#40 Nonesuch

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 15:22

Is this the topic where people come to defend Schumacher's honour? It will be a while yet before his win record is broken, if it is broken.


Nah, no need. Hamilton should sail by Schumacher's win record with ease. That's fine - both are ridiculously inflated by circumstances.

I like Schumacher as much as the next guy. Probably even more so - while he was at Ferrari anyway - but it's almost a bit embarrassing that he is one race short of winning as much as Senna and Prost combined.

I much prefer to look at things like the Ten Best Race Wins or such. Those often tell much more interesting stories than a simple number.

#41 P123

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 15:25

The win tally is impressive I must say. Unbelievable that the record could (will) be broken so quickly.

Also, shows what a bad state F1 competition is in, particularly when number 3 on that list is still an active driver in his prime.


Does it show any different now to any other era? Back in the early 90s you would have had Prost and Senna far ahead of anybody else at 1 and 2 on the all time list- even further based on active drivers when Our Nige went off to IndyCar! Even then, over a period of a decade the majority of victories were scored by four teams, not all in competition together at the same time each season either. And back then teams could be lapped up to four or five times with anything up to P4 ending a lap down. We'd all love a closer grid.... but the present day isn't a new problems for F1.

#42 ExEd

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 15:27

Sorry to disapoint you.

Feel free to say why you don`t agree with me...

 

 

That will happen (somewhere next year :cry:  ):

- Hamilton is a great driver, altough not in Schumacher, Senna or Prost league, in my opinion

- 25% more races per year and counting

- circuits much more forgiving (run off áreas… :down:)

- almost 100% relaibility

- Mercedes domination from 2014 till 202(put a number)...., only 1 year later from Hamilton arriving the team

- rain races more rare witch led to less retires/mistakes

- Rosberg retirement

- Alonso was no opposition during recente years

- FIA change regulations in 2003 and 2005 to stop Ferrari (qualy format, tyres, etc.) - Schumacher could have more poles and wins

But as Schumacher said record are made to be broken… :clap:

 

I don't know where to begin with... I mean oh my! 

 

So 25% more races.

I can give you that although is not exactly 25 and not in all Lewis' racing seasons. 

If he reaches the same or more % though it won't matter much anyway. 

 

Circuits are more forgiving?

What that has to do with Lewis ?

Honestly doesn't make any sense unless you mean MS lost many races of mistakes and we know that's not the case. 

Please elaborate. 

 

Almost 100% reliability ?

Really now ,are we talking reliability against MS and his Ferrari 2000-2004? You cant be serious bringing this up, sorry.

 

How does Merc dominance is different than Ferrari? Did Lewis enjoyed the Benneton seasons MS had with his McLaren? No.

Also on the matter ,you mentioned Rosberg ,not me. Now lets compare him to both status and skill of Rubens....  :drunk: . 

I leave it there...

 

Rain races? Do your study beforehand ,please.

Are you aware of % of rain wins of Lewis Hamilton? If anything the less wet races the more it works against Lewis... 

 

Im leaving Rosberg for later

 

Alosno was not opposition ? Ok here I thought you are trolling.

Idk how this works for you, you hand pick the ones and the years you like to make an argument valid?

So if Alonso was not opposition, Lewis would not have some extra wins/poles  and 1 more championship from 2007? no huh? 

Let alone, you just mention Alonso ?

Why not Vettel? Wasnt he opposition enough to stop Lewis from gaining more poles and more wins  2009-2014? 

Funny how it works for you really... 

 

For FIA thing..I won't even bother.

 

Rosberg? You said Rosberg? 

Talking about team mates and their genuine ability but most of all their freedom of challenging No1? 

I honestly lol'd there.

Who, Rubens? Massa? Or the notorious Ferrari equal treatment that allowed intra-team battles? :rotfl:  

Come on. You think everyone was born 2010 or something ? 

 

No offence but there is almost none argument of yours that made sense so far 


Edited by ExEd, 13 June 2019 - 15:28.


#43 screamingV16

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 15:27

That will happen (somewhere next year :cry:  ):

- Hamilton is a great driver, altough not in Schumacher, Senna or Prost league, in my opinion

- 25% more races per year and counting

- circuits much more forgiving (run off áreas… :down:)

- almost 100% relaibility

- Mercedes domination from 2014 till 202(put a number)...., only 1 year later from Hamilton arriving the team

- rain races more rare witch led to less retires/mistakes

- Rosberg retirement

- Alonso was no opposition during recent years

- FIA change regulations in 2003 and 2005 to stop Ferrari (qualy format, tyres, etc.) - Schumacher could have more poles and wins

But as Schumacher said records are made to be broken… :clap:

 

Just a few points...

 

 I think you're forgetting how good Ferrari reliability was during Schumacher's championship years . According to Stats F1 he retired just 8 times between 2000 and 2004 (including the 100% reliability in 02 and his only retiring once in 03 due to binning it in the wet) as opposed to 7 times for Hamilton between 2014 and now. The Schumacher WDC era Ferrari years contributed somewhat to raising the bar in F1 reliability wise.

 

Hamilton has driven approximately 15% more GPs a year than Schumacher, not quite the 25% you claim. To put some perspective on it, Schumacher himself drove during an era with 70-100% more GP a year than Fangio did.

 

Schumacher spent most of his career effectively driving in a one car team. He was the sole focus at all times in terms of his teams WDC/race winning ambitions.



#44 P123

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 15:35

Number of races per season- Schumacher's 'first' career averaged 17, Hamilton's to date 19 GP per season. So not quite 25% (half that!), although comparing some mid-90s seasons with recent seasons there is that jump.

#45 P123

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 15:38

Re. tracks... if that a plus or minus? Tracks are less punishing, but that goes for all. Whilst there may have been an increased chance of exiting a race in the past, the same was true for competitors.

#46 7WDC

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 15:41

Number of races per season- Schumacher's 'first' career averaged 17, Hamilton's to date 19 GP per season. So not quite 25% (half that!), although comparing some mid-90s seasons with recent seasons there is that jump.

Schumacher average 16,75 races/year in his first career.

Hamilton average 19,1 races/year.

Thats 14% till 2018.

It`s not 25% but more races nevertleless



#47 useyourloaf

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 15:44

Could maybe track the countdown to podium record too

 

http://forix.autospo...l=0&b=1021&c=50



#48 Fatgadget

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 15:44

Sorry to disapoint you.

Feel free to say why you don`t agree with me...

Saying Hamilton is not right up there with Schumacher ,Senna and Prost is a bit of a stretch I'd say!...What more does he need to do? He has already eclipsed Senna and Prost's stats. Or are you judging him differently?



#49 Anuity

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 15:49

Number of races per season- Schumacher's 'first' career averaged 17, Hamilton's to date 19 GP per season. So not quite 25% (half that!), although comparing some mid-90s seasons with recent seasons there is that jump.

 

It really only matters for the past few seasons, where Mercedes became so dominant and where the bulk of Ham's victories is from.



#50 Anuity

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 15:51

 

How does Merc dominance is different than Ferrari? Did Lewis enjoyed the Benneton seasons MS had with his McLaren? No.

 

 

It's pretty obvious that Mclaren in 2007-2008 was a better car compared to its competition than Benetton in 1994-1995 compared to Williams.