299 replies to this topic

[theflyingwheel]

What are the chances of Max and Lewis fighting for the tittle until the last race and turning what at the beginning looked as a boring race into one of the most epic seasons in all F1 history.

[PlayboyRacer]

Zero

[PedroDiCasttro]

Still too soon to make a call. It's on if Max wins tomorrow.

[OvDrone]

The same chances as Gasly winning a race this year.

[TomNokoe]

Max has engine penalties

[Trust]

It's probable, but for next year. This year, Lewis already has this locked.

[Skizo]

Very small...if Honda sort out the mapping issue and the next update work from the start,and RB continue with the good updates...still small.....but if Mercedes/Lewis doing  German GP weekends?! Probably not enough.

[Marklar]

I can't see it happening tbh. The gap is still huge in the championship, Mercedes will certainly bounce back, Ferrari will win a couple. Max has engine penalties.

I can only see it happening if Mercedes and Hamilton choke which I dont think will happen, since they managed it well last year when Ferrari looked to even have the upper hand (then again maybe Red Bull and Verstappen can sustain the pressure properly and not wreck it, I have more confidence in them)

What will probably be important is how Mercedes manages the fact that Bottas is quick in quali but a absolute roadblock in the race (assuming Hamilton doesnt find his traditional strong 2nd half form). So far they just accepted this because it didnt mattered for their outcome, but if Max is in contention....

I think it's unlikely to go to the last race, but perhaps a 2009-esque showdown in a rainy Sao Paulo....

Edited by Marklar, 03 August 2019 - 14:34.

[Atreiu]

Very small.

[klyster]

Stranger things have happened.

Seriously, Max is driving so well, I wouldn't count him out yet.

[Giz]

Its looking like Max will make it harder than it seemed at the start of the season.

If he can take points off him at Spa and Monza who knows

[SavageHorizon]

Something drastic would need to happen at Mercedes for 'Ves,Ves' to beat Lewis this year. All Lewis needs to do is keep beating Valteri and have no DNF's and it's his.

[JeePee]

Something drastic would need to happen at Mercedes for 'Ves,Ves' to beat Lewis this year. All Lewis needs to do is keep beating Valteri and have no DNF's and it's his.

If he does this but Max wins, the title is Max actually.

[Martijn]

Max would need 7 wins and 2 seconds to mirror Lewis' first half of the season. That seems very unlikely. 

Lewis would need only 4 podiums to mirror Max' first half of the season. That seems more unlikely still. 

 

edit: still think it will happen though!

Edited by Martijn, 03 August 2019 - 14:59.

[anyeis]

13:1 for Verstappen to win championship currently according to experts. So litttle more than that? 10%?

Edited by anyeis, 03 August 2019 - 14:49.

[Ali623]

It's possible technically, but Hamilton tends to step up during the second half of the season - only possible if Red Bull have a outright better car than Mercedes for the rest of the year, and Max would have to maximise pretty much every weekend. Even then all Hamilton has to do is get consistent results as the gap is so big. A DNF would change things though

[SonGoku]

Max problem is that Ferrari will win at Monza and I think Spa also, taking away the big points and the difference between P3 and P4 is not a lot.

[vonTrips]

13:1 for Verstappen to win championship currently according to experts. So litttle more than that? 10%?

A week ago it was still 33:1

[PayasYouRace]

I’d rate their chances as good as a thread title being correctly spelled on here when someone hurriedly opens a new thread after a session.

[Marklar]

Max problem is that Ferrari will win at Monza and I think Spa also, taking away the big points and the difference between P3 and P4 is not a lot.

It actually could be a chance though. Max will take engine penalties in Monza, so Ferrari preventing Mercedes from winning would help him there.

Plus as we've seen this season already Ferrari having the best package for a particular track isnt guaranteeing them to win though (although I believe they will)

Edited by Marklar, 03 August 2019 - 15:01.

[SenorSjon]

Lewis needs to DNF and Max win with FL to make it remotely viable. I bet the points lost in Monaco (2 to 4 instead of a fine) and Silverstone (2/3 to 5) count very heavy in this.

[Henri Greuter]

I don't see it happen either.

 

Could have opened a new thread for it but that would probably be too musch to swallow for the non-Max fans out here.

But here is my question.

 

Imagine, just imagine it could be possible after all.

Now, what would be better for F1, or what would we prefer?  Lewis winning #6 or the first ever WDC title lost for Mercedes?

 

 

Or should I open a Poll for this one after all????

[goldenboy]

Man I just don't see it. It's been fun having great races lately but I'm missing the pressure of a title fight so here's hoping. A Hamilton dnf, probably 2 really, is the only way I see it happening.

My guess: 5% chance

Edited by goldenboy, 03 August 2019 - 15:02.

[Maxioos]

It's a 21 race championship. not 7, not 9 or 11 but 21.

 

In the last 3 races the car has been great/as best. This weekend could/does make that 4 in a row. Max gets a engine penalty, okay, so one race no big points. But, as soon he wins/keeps winning, the lead of Hamilton goes in same speed or faster then he gained it. I personally find it very strange that midway season, with knowledge they where close whole first part and equal/faster last part at the first half season to write the championship off yet.

 

If Max wins tomorrow, the difference wil "only" be around 55 points if Hamilton comes 2nd. We have seen point switches from 50 points in couple races very often.

 

It's reasonable to argue with last 3GP's and today that Max will be able to fight for poll on almost every track.

 

It for sure doesn't need bad luck or DNF's from Hamilton to achieve it. like said, if Max wins tomorrow, it's only 55 or less points. If Hamilton doesn't come 2nd tomorrow (And Max again gains more then 7/8 points), it's not luck for Max or bad luck Hamilton, it's how championships over 21 races go.

 

It's also waiting how Hamilton performance when not in lead/p2. Until now he doesn't seem as stable then as Max has done first part season. And Hamilton has a teammate that can outperform him that cost him extra unneeded points (unless Mercedes is going to use orders?)

[PedroDiCasttro]

The fight could also be influenced by the performances of Bottas, if Mercedes doesn't use team orders.

 

If Bottas finishes ahead of Hamilton consistently after the summer break, the title fight could definitely be on.

[Piif]

None.

[ZaZ]

If Hamilton breaks his legs in a biking accident during summer break and has to miss a few races then it might be on.

[PedroDiCasttro]

Max only needs a faster car than the Mercedes, there's no need for any Hamilton's DNFs or injuries.

[SonGoku]

It's a 21 race championship. not 7, not 9 or 11 but 21.

In the last 3 races the car has been great/as best. This weekend could/does make that 4 in a row. Max gets a engine penalty, okay, so one race no big points. But, as soon he wins/keeps winning, the lead of Hamilton goes in same speed or faster then he gained it. I personally find it very strange that midway season, with knowledge they where close whole first part and equal/faster last part at the first half season to write the championship off yet.

If Max wins tomorrow, the difference wil "only" be around 55 points if Hamilton comes 2nd. We have seen point switches from 50 points in couple races very often.

It's reasonable to argue with last 3GP's and today that Max will be able to fight for poll on almost every track.

It for sure doesn't need bad luck or DNF's from Hamilton to achieve it. like said, if Max wins tomorrow, it's only 55 or less points. If Hamilton doesn't come 2nd tomorrow (And Max again gains more then 7/8 points), it's not luck for Max or bad luck Hamilton, it's how championships over 21 races go.

It's also waiting how Hamilton performance when not in lead/p2. Until now he doesn't seem as stable then as Max has done first part season. And Hamilton has a teammate that can outperform him that cost him extra unneeded points (unless Mercedes is going to use orders?)

Hamilton is one of the best drivers ever in car vs car combat.

[milestone 11]

High. Neither the Merc nor Lewis have been as dominant as the results so far suggest, the picture could be very, very different.

Edited by milestone 11, 03 August 2019 - 15:18.

[pitlanepalpatine]

Max only needs a faster car than the Mercedes, there's no need for any Hamilton's DNFs or injuries.

 

Considering we're already nearing the mathematical impossibility of him not winning if he wins every race and lewis comes second he needs more than a faster car.

[PedroDiCasttro]

Considering we're already nearing the mathematical impossibility of him not winning if he wins every race and lewis comes second he needs more than a faster car.

Indeed, I forgot a decisive factor in all of this.

 

Max also needs a competitive team mate, someone who can take second place often. That isn't going to happen any time soon, though. If only Ricciardo was still there.

[kosmos]

Verstappen is more than 2 races behind Hamilton. Can't see it happening, even if RB has the fastest car until the end of the championship, Hamilton will manage the gap barring DNFs and things like that.

[goldenboy]

It's a 21 race championship. not 7, not 9 or 11 but 21.

In the last 3 races the car has been great/as best. This weekend could/does make that 4 in a row. Max gets a engine penalty, okay, so one race no big points. But, as soon he wins/keeps winning, the lead of Hamilton goes in same speed or faster then he gained it. I personally find it very strange that midway season, with knowledge they where close whole first part and equal/faster last part at the first half season to write the championship off yet.

If Max wins tomorrow, the difference wil "only" be around 55 points if Hamilton comes 2nd. We have seen point switches from 50 points in couple races very often.

It's reasonable to argue with last 3GP's and today that Max will be able to fight for poll on almost every track.

It for sure doesn't need bad luck or DNF's from Hamilton to achieve it. like said, if Max wins tomorrow, it's only 55 or less points. If Hamilton doesn't come 2nd tomorrow (And Max again gains more then 7/8 points), it's not luck for Max or bad luck Hamilton, it's how championships over 21 races go.

It's also waiting how Hamilton performance when not in lead/p2. Until now he doesn't seem as stable then as Max has done first part season. And Hamilton has a teammate that can outperform him that cost him extra unneeded points (unless Mercedes is going to use orders?)

I do admire your optimism! It was a long post but you think max can even take it without a dnf from Hamilton? Good luck. Gonna need it.

[Maxioos]

Hamilton is one of the best drivers ever in car vs car combat.

 

I should have add /car. The car seems to suffer in traffic more.

[Maxioos]

I do admire your optimism! It was a long post but you think max can even take it without a dnf from Hamilton? Good luck. Gonna need it.

 

He got the lead without a DNF from Max didn't he? Why wouldn't Max be able to close the gab same way? 3 or 4 times Hamilton on p3/4/5 and Max p1/2 and do the calculations.

[Marklar]

He got the lead without a DNF from Max didn't he? Why wouldn't Max be able to close the gab same way? 3 or 4 times Hamilton on p3/4/5 and Max p1/2 and do the calculations.

Mercedes had a lot of luck and 3-4 very dominant races to build that gap. Plus Bottas is a good number two who took plenty of points away from the others. To compensate for Red Bull not having a number two who can do that they would need a very strong Ferrari but they have to be simultanously not strong enough to nick wins from Red Bull away. Let alone Mercedes is required to not nick wins away either.

Sure, in theory it's possible, but it needs a load of stuff to happen.

[goldenboy]

He got the lead without a DNF from Max didn't he? Why wouldn't Max be able to close the gab same way? 3 or 4 times Hamilton on p3/4/5 and Max p1/2 and do the calculations.

I don't see red bull being consistently better (and luckier) than merc in the second half in the same way merc was better (and luckier) than red bull for the first half.

Add to that that Honda will probably have more penalties and it's even harder.

Hamilton NEEDS to dnf. For our sake let's hope he does and we get an interesting fight.

Edited by goldenboy, 03 August 2019 - 15:39.

[MortenF1]

The fight is on. You’d have to say when the Red Bull is as strong as it is and same for Verstappen, AND there are still many races to go.
...even if Verstappen takes one back of the grid-start, he will still come home fifth or sixth.

Edited by MortenF1, 03 August 2019 - 15:40.

[pitlanepalpatine]

He got the lead without a DNF from Max didn't he? Why wouldn't Max be able to close the gab same way? 3 or 4 times Hamilton on p3/4/5 and Max p1/2 and do the calculations.

 

The difference between Max and Hamilton at the moment is 63 points. Even if Max gets P1 in 4 races and Hamilton gets P5 that's 60 points and not enough to win. That when Ferrari are backsliding and Gasly is as useful as sand in a desert just makes it highly unlikely.

 

Can Max outperform Hamilton in the second half of the championship -  sure.

Can he take the title or make it close - not a hope because it's not something he can dictate with his own performance.

Edited by pitlanepalpatine, 03 August 2019 - 15:43.

[goldenboy]

The fight is on. You’d have to say when the Red Bull is as strong as it is and same for Verstappen, AND there are still many races to go.
...even if Verstappen takes one back of the grid-start, he will still come home sixth.

If anyone could do it, it would be Max I suppose. But I still feel the horse has bolted.

Edited by goldenboy, 03 August 2019 - 15:40.

[Maxioos]

Mercedes had a lot of luck and 3-4 very dominant races to build that gap. Plus Bottas is a good number two who took plenty of points away from the others. To compensate for Red Bull not having a number two who can do that they would need a very strong Ferrari but they have to be simultanously not strong enough to nick wins from Red Bull away. Let alone Mercedes is required to not nick wins away either.

Sure, in theory it's possible, but it needs a load of stuff to happen.

 

For me, it goes the other way around, the "stronger" teammate costed Hamilton at least 16 points with wins that otherwise Hamilton would have. Max doesn't has to worry about that.

[Maxioos]

The difference between Max and Hamilton at the moment is 63 points. Even if Max gets P1 in 4 races and Hamilton gets P5 that's 60 points and not enough to win. That when Ferrari are backsliding and Gasly is as useful as sand in a desert just makes it highly unlikely.

 

I didn't say that would be the win, i said, it's just one of the many calculations you can make that would lead towards a general and real WDC fight in last 2 or 3 races.

[Marklar]

For me, it goes the other way around, the "stronger" teammate costed Hamilton at least 16 points with wins that otherwise Hamilton would have. Max doesn't has to worry about that.

If Bottas would have finished every race 6th or lower like Gasly does Max would have 25 points more. And If Mercedes actually applies team orders in the 2nd half he wont take points away from Hamilton either, just from the others. Gasly cant do that, at least so far.

Mercedes didnt had a slight performance advantage to Red Bull in the first half, it was relatively big and even with that advantage it required a bit luck, so they are not even comparable, unless Red Bull really becomes suddenly dominant or Hamilton has many DNFs or screw ups.

Max driving the first 8 races for Ferrari and the remaining races for Red Bull, that would have been a very realistic challenge.

Look, isolated your arguments make sense, the problem is just that a lot of things need to happen. They can happen, but they are certainly not as realistic as what Mercedes pulled in the first half.

Edited by Marklar, 03 August 2019 - 15:53.

[beachdrifter]

63 points are nothing if Merc keep underperforming like they have recently. 10 races left.

Edited by beachdrifter, 03 August 2019 - 15:54.

[Maxioos]

If Bottas would have finished every race 5th/6th like Gasly does Max would have 25 points more. And If Mercedes actually applies team orders in the 2nd half he wont take points away from Hamilton either, just from the others. Gasly cant do that, at least so far.

Mercedes didnt had a slight performance advantage to Red Bull in the first half, it was relatively big and even with that advantage it required a bit luck, so they are not even comparable, unless Red Bull really becomes suddenly dominant or Hamilton has many DNFs or screw ups.

Max driving the first 8 races for Ferrari and the remaining races for Red Bull, that would have been a very realistic challenge.

Look, isolated your arguments make sense, the problem is just that a lot of things need to happen. They can happen, but they are certainly not as realistic as what Mercedes pulled in the first half.

 

Only Max winning is needed, that's not "a lot". 

 

If Max wins tomorrow, he won 3 out of last 4 and without Vettel would have been 2nd other, but yeah, lots has to happen.

[Spillage]

Wouldn't it basically need Red Bull to dominate the second half of the season in the way Mercedes dominated the first? I don't see that happening; even if Red Bull do have an edge it won't be enough to close the gap.

[Button4life]

Max is one dnf from lewis away of mounting a serious title challange imo. Red Bull seems to out develop Ferrari and Mercedes in the 2nd half of the season. They're already strong now. They'll be stronger compared to the competition in the 2nd half of the season. It will be difficult if Ferrari can't get points of Hamilton though, but still possible.

[AmonGods]

63 points are nothing if Merc keep underperforming like they have recently. 10 races left.

 

Oh boy. How the perspective can change in half a race and a qualy 

Lewis was comfortably leading the last race until that unfortunate slick tire change.

Hungary has always been a strong RB track.

All of the sudden Max is gonna win the WDC and Mercedes is underperforming and Lewis is chocking 

[Eff1]

It won’t go down to the last race but Verstappen has the ability to make Hamilton fight for the odd race win, which is enough to make it go down to the last 3-4 races