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What are the chances of Max and Lewis fighting for the title until the last race?


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#251 NixxxoN

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 12:54

Luckily there are more tracks in the 2nd half than just Spa and Monza, and I´m sure they´ll be able to mix it up again at some of them :).

 

And of course, HOnda is also planning on making another step. Who knows. Championship is pretty much over already, so let´s just hope for some fun races.

 

I think the best remaining tracks for RB-Honda will be Singapore, Mexico and USA, there he will have a shoot at race victory, but in the rest, I cant see it. Unless it rains, then they have chances everywhere



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#252 Fatgadget

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 12:57

Honda engine still not good enough for that. You'll see at the next two tracks (Spa and Monza) where power is very important.

That Honda engine is there or thereabouts.It certainly has the measure of the Ferrari judging by how the Red Bull package perfomed during qualy and the race.



#253 Heyli

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 12:58

I think the best remaining tracks for RB-Honda will be Singapore, Mexico and USA, there he will have a shoot at race victory, but in the rest, I cant see it. Unless it rains, then they have chances everywhere

They were doing fine in Brazil last year, and I also think Japan is not a bad track for them.

 

Still some updates on car and engine to come, so who knows really.



#254 JeePee

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 13:01

Am I the only one not concerned about Max' chances in Spa? He likes the track. It has a lot of corners where downforce comes in to play, and he doesn't have a Renault lump in the back anymore. Oh. And he came slicing through the field on the powertrack called the Red Bull Ring. He'll finish on the podium.



#255 NixxxoN

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 13:07

They were doing fine in Brazil last year, and I also think Japan is not a bad track for them.

 

Still some updates on car and engine to come, so who knows really.

 

Last year they didnt run with a Honda engine. Both Suzuka and Interlagos demand both a good car and good power.

Other engines should get updates aswell so they may progress, or may not

 

That Honda engine is there or thereabouts.It certainly has the measure of the Ferrari judging by how the Red Bull package perfomed during qualy and the race.

 

You mean in Hungaroring, where power matters the least along with Monaco?


Edited by NixxxoN, 05 August 2019 - 13:07.


#256 PedroDiCasttro

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 13:10

Am I the only one not concerned about Max' chances in Spa? He likes the track. It has a lot of corners where downforce comes in to play, and he doesn't have a Renault lump in the back anymore. Oh. And he came slicing through the field on the powertrack called the Red Bull Ring. He'll finish on the podium.

Last year Red Bull finished more than a second behind Mercedes on qualifying, I don't know if they'll be able to compete with them this year.

 

It'll be a close battle between Ferrari and Mercedes on saturday, but Mercedes will be clearly better on sunday, I'd bet.



#257 Requiem84

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 13:12

Last year Red Bull finished more than a second behind Mercedes on qualifying, I don't know if they'll be able to compete with them this year.


It'll be a close battle between Ferrari and Mercedes on saturday, but Mercedes will be clearly better on sunday, I'd bet.


Out the top of my head, Max was P2 in Q in 2016? In 2017 he also was quite close..

#258 Counterbalance

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 13:38

I mean Max was douting strategy too. Hamilton also gives "orders" (or at least that's how you call it) in the tune of asking when he can do something (i.e. "tell me when you want me to close down"). And saying that you dont think that you can pull off the pace is as much of a status report as saying that the tyres are going off.

It's just the FOM releasing their favourite drivers highlight reel. Hamilton gets a load of airtime now, Vettel and his constant cries about blue flags did, and I think they buried a hidden microphone in Alonso's favourite jacket.

It's all part of the show.

Edited by Counterbalance, 05 August 2019 - 13:43.


#259 Ivanhoe

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 13:43

Last year they didnt run with a Honda engine. Both Suzuka and Interlagos demand both a good car and good power.

 

Hope you are not implying Red Bull had a good, let alone better, engine last year than they have now?



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#260 NixxxoN

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 13:55

Hope you are not implying Red Bull had a good, let alone better, engine last year than they have now?

Last year's Renault was a lot less reliable but I'd say closer in power to Merc/Ferrari



#261 Requiem84

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 13:59

Last year's Renault was a lot less reliable but I'd say closer in power to Merc/Ferrari


How do you explain RB’s speed on Silverstone, Austria and hockenheim compared to last year then?

The 2019 Honda PU is a clear step closer to Merc and Ferrari than the 2018 Renault was to the 2018 Ferrari and Merc.

2019 Renault might be even more powerful than the 2019 Honda, but that reliability..

#262 Fatgadget

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 14:07

Last year they didnt run with a Honda engine. Both Suzuka and Interlagos demand both a good car and good power.

Other engines should get updates aswell so they may progress, or may not

 

 

You mean in Hungaroring, where power matters the least along with Monaco?

No. I  mean in absolute terms. You dont bag pole positions without serious grunt from your engine.Whatever the circuit.



#263 NixxxoN

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 14:07

How do you explain RB’s speed on Silverstone, Austria and hockenheim compared to last year then?

The 2019 Honda PU is a clear step closer to Merc and Ferrari than the 2018 Renault was to the 2018 Ferrari and Merc.

2019 Renault might be even more powerful than the 2019 Honda, but that reliability..

What speed? I mean, I dont see improvement over last year. They won in germany because it was wet, hamilton was ill, and all that crazyness that happened.

No. I mean in absolute terms. You dont bag pole positions without serious grunt from your engine.Whatever the circuit.

You can get poles with less power in twisty tracks. "Whatever the circuit" is simply wrong becuase it matters a lot.

Let's wait and see for the next two tracks where power matters a lot.

Edited by NixxxoN, 05 August 2019 - 14:10.


#264 f1paul

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 14:13

What speed? I mean, I dont see improvement over last year. They won in germany because it was wet, hamilton was ill, and all that crazyness that happened.
You can get poles with less power in twisty tracks. "Whatever the circuit" is simply wrong becuase it matters a lot.

They have been MUCH closer in qualifying in the last four races - Austria, Silverstone, Hockenheim, Budapest - taking 2nd place, pole position or being within 0.2 of whoever qualified first.

 

Austria was won on merit from 15 seconds behind a Ferrari on a power track (last year Red Bull were a tad lucky with Mercedes DNF and the VSC), Silverstone was much better in terms of race and qualy pace compared to last year, Hockenheim (hard to tell with Ferrari's problem so fair enough even though they did win) and Budapest they took pole position there for the first time in the hybrid era and only got beat due to an incredible performance from Hamilton (last year Max's engine blew up but he definitely wouldn't have been fighting for the win).



#265 Stephane

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 14:13

And even if they do well, you'll still say they are bad.



#266 PedroDiCasttro

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 14:13

What speed? I mean, I dont see improvement over last year. They won in germany because it was wet, hamilton was ill, and all that crazyness that happened.

Seriously, dude? Wow

 

Red Bull just put nearly a minute over the best placed Ferrari at Hungaroring, besides setting the pole lap, and you don't see any improvement in Honda over the last year?!


Edited by PedroDiCasttro, 05 August 2019 - 14:14.


#267 Requiem84

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 14:18

What speed? I mean, I dont see improvement over last year. They won in germany because it was wet, hamilton was ill, and all that crazyness that happened.


Qualifying speed - that moment the PU’s are turned up fully.

In Silverstone the gap was 0,2. In 2018 it was about 0,8.

Hockenheim was only 0,3, while the highest engine mode couldn’t be run. The year before it was 0,6.

I’m sorry to say - you aren’t informed sufficiently to assess the PU performance.

#268 Tsarwash

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 14:20

Merc had issues, but come on that car is fastest everywhere. Won 11 out of 13 races this year. It's a miracle Max could hang on for so long.

The Mercs were clearly not the fastest in the race at Austria. 



#269 NixxxoN

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 14:25

They have been MUCH closer in qualifying in the last four races - Austria, Silverstone, Hockenheim, Budapest - taking 2nd place, pole position or being within 0.2 of whoever qualified first.
 
Austria was won on merit from 15 seconds behind a Ferrari on a power track (last year Red Bull were a tad lucky with Mercedes DNF and the VSC), Silverstone was much better in terms of race and qualy pace compared to last year, Hockenheim (hard to tell with Ferrari's problem so fair enough even though they did win) and Budapest they took pole position there for the first time in the hybrid era and only got beat due to an incredible performance from Hamilton (last year Max's engine blew up but he definitely wouldn't have been fighting for the win).

 

Qualifying speed - that moment the PU’s are turned up fully.

In Silverstone the gap was 0,2. In 2018 it was about 0,8.

Hockenheim was only 0,3, while the highest engine mode couldn’t be run. The year before it was 0,6.

I’m sorry to say - you aren’t informed sufficiently to assess the PU performance.

Qualy mode. fine. I count the overall performance over the whole weekend. Honda has always been weaker in race than in qualy. Always. Also Its known that Renault didnt have a qualy mode last year, this year apparently they do.
I repeat lets wait and see for the next two tracks, if they do well in those I'll have to eat my words.

Seriously, dude? Wow

Red Bull just put nearly a minute over the best placed Ferrari at Hungaroring, besides setting the pole lap, and you don't see any improvement in Honda over the last year?!

Ferrari has been terrible this year in twisty tracks, they messed up badly with his car and dont have enough downforce.

Edited by NixxxoN, 05 August 2019 - 14:25.


#270 Tsarwash

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 14:26

Last year Red Bull finished more than a second behind Mercedes on qualifying, I don't know if they'll be able to compete with them this year.

 

It'll be a close battle between Ferrari and Mercedes on saturday, but Mercedes will be clearly better on sunday, I'd bet.

Last year Verstappen was seven tenths behind Lewis in Silverstone Quali, this year he was two tenths behind Bottas. I would guess that they would have to be lucky to make up that extra half a second, to be equal with them. 



#271 f1paul

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 14:30

 
Qualy mode. fine. I count the overall performance over the whole weekend. Honda has always been weaker in race than in qualy. Always. Also Its known that Renault didnt have a qualy mode last year, this year apparently they do.
I repeat lets wait and see for the next two tracks, if they do well in those I'll have to eat my words.

Ferrari has been terrible this year in twisty tracks, they messed up badly with his car and dont have enough downforce.

But they were much closer at Silverstone and Budapest too in the race.

 

And they WON in Austria (without any luck this time) and won in Germany.

 

The PU has improved just as much in the race as it has in qualy IMO. Maybe a touch more in qualy but it has still improved Red Bull's races by a good margin.



#272 Requiem84

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 14:33

But they were much closer at Silverstone and Budapest too in the race.

And they WON in Austria (without any luck this time) and won in Germany.

The PU has improved just as much in the race as it has in qualy IMO. Maybe a touch more in qualy but it has still improved Red Bull's races by a good margin.


It’s the only logical conclusion.

The 2018 chassis was a lot better than the (early) 2019. Sure, they found some performance on the aero side since Austria, but in reality that improvement can’t account for the sudden 0,6 seconds they found. It coincides with remarks from RB that Honda have been quite conservative with the PU modes until Austria.

#273 NixxxoN

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 14:37

But they were much closer at Silverstone and Budapest too in the race.
 
And they WON in Austria (without any luck this time) and won in Germany.
 
The PU has improved just as much in the race as it has in qualy IMO. Maybe a touch more in qualy but it has still improved Red Bull's races by a good margin.

They actually won in Austria "by luck" as Merc had temperature issues and they could not go as quick as they should.

Sorry to say but so far they have not won any single race on merit and without any issues from rivals.
In 2018 Ric won in monaco 100% by pure merit and pure speed

Edited by NixxxoN, 05 August 2019 - 14:39.


#274 Tsarwash

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 14:39

 
Qualy mode. fine. I count the overall performance over the whole weekend. Honda has always been weaker in race than in qualy. Always. Also Its known that Renault didnt have a qualy mode last year, this year apparently they do.
I repeat lets wait and see for the next two tracks, if they do well in those I'll have to eat my words.

Ferrari has been terrible this year in twisty tracks, they messed up badly with his car and dont have enough downforce.

It is much more difficult to assess race pace than quali pace, because there are so many other factors that will affect race laps and final race time. But if you have evidence that the Red Bull's have not made up much, if any race pace this year, please feel free to show us. 



#275 JeePee

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 14:39

They actually won in Austria "by luck" as Merc had temperature issues and they could not go as quick as they should.

Sorry to say but so far they have not won any single race on merit and without any issues from rivals.

Yeah and Verstappen had a perfectly fine race in Austria. Nothing went wrong for him, like not dropping to P8 at the start and all that. And Lewis damaging his front wing was also pure luck for Red Bull :rolleyes:


Edited by JeePee, 05 August 2019 - 14:39.


#276 PedroDiCasttro

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 14:42

They actually won in Austria "by luck" as Merc had temperature issues and they could not go as quick as they should.

Sorry to say but so far they have not won any single race on merit and without any issues from rivals.
In 2018 Ric won in monaco 100% by pure merit and pure speed

Just stop, man. You're digging yourself into a bigger hole with such remarks.

 

They didn't win by luck, but they did the best job coming into that race, they could push their engines without worrying about the engines blowing. 



#277 f1paul

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 14:42

They actually won in Austria "by luck" as Merc had temperature issues and they could not go as quick as they should.

Sorry to say but so far they have not won any single race on merit and without any issues from rivals.
In 2018 Ric won in monaco 100% by pure merit and pure speed

Oh absolutely of course, Verstappen was just 15 seconds behind with three cars ahead of him and lucked into it.

 

If it was 'luck' it was certainly less 'luck' than last year as I have already pointed out.

 

Are we just going to ignore their better race pace on power tracks or just tracks in general.



#278 Requiem84

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 14:44

They actually won in Austria "by luck" as Merc had temperature issues and they could not go as quick as they should.

Sorry to say but so far they have not won any single race on merit and without any issues from rivals.
In 2018 Ric won in monaco 100% by pure merit and pure speed


Austria 2018 Verstappen was pushed hard by the Ferrari’s. In 2019 he was so much faster in the race. Luck? Or the Honda PU with setting 11?

#279 NixxxoN

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 14:47

Just stop, man. You're digging yourself into a bigger hole with such remarks.
 
They didn't win by luck, but they did the best job coming into that race, they could push their engines without worrying about the engines blowing.

"By luck" (thats why I put "" in there) I meant that Merc had issues with temperature and that helped RB a lot, I doubt they would've won otherwise.
And sorry to say but I'll stop when I want not because you say so btw.

Oh absolutely of course, Verstappen was just 15 seconds behind with three cars ahead of him and lucked into it.
 
If it was 'luck' it was certainly less 'luck' than last year as I have already pointed out.
 
Are we just going to ignore their better race pace on power tracks or just tracks in general.

In the most power track so far (without issues from the others) that is Canada, Red bull finished a long way behind. And Merc/Ferrari were on a class of their own. That tells something.

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#280 PedroDiCasttro

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 14:50

So Red Bull won the race over Mercedes and Ferrari at Austria because of "luck". Alright, then. To each their own, I guess.


Edited by PedroDiCasttro, 05 August 2019 - 14:51.


#281 Requiem84

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 14:52

In the most power track so far (without issues from the others) that is Canada, Red bull finished a long way behind. And Merc/Ferrari were on a class of their own. That tells something.


And after Canada Honda introduced a new spec PU, which allows RB to run higher power modes for longer - in the race.

I’m not really sure how much convincing you need? :)

#282 NixxxoN

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 14:55

And after Canada Honda introduced a new spec PU, which allows RB to run higher power modes for longer - in the race.

I’m not really sure how much convincing you need? :)

As I said two times before, I just need to see if they do well in the next two tracks, which are power ones, If they do well, I'll eat my words and stop.

Edited by NixxxoN, 05 August 2019 - 14:56.


#283 f1paul

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 14:56

"By luck" (thats why I put "" in there) I meant that Merc had issues with temperature and that helped RB a lot, I doubt they would've won otherwise.
And sorry to say but I'll stop when I want not because you say so btw.
In the most power track so far (without issues from the others) that is Canada, Red bull finished a long way behind. And Merc/Ferrari were on a class of their own. That tells something.

I would argue that Silverstone is the most powerful track but anyway.

 

Didn't Max start down the order though? So maybe not the best example, or is that just "luck" (but in a bad way of course)? 

 

Edit: If there was a WHOLE WEEKEND where nobody had no problems (if we are going to be that picky anyway) then it's Silverstone or Hungary.


Edited by f1paul, 05 August 2019 - 14:57.


#284 Requiem84

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 15:00

As I said two times before, I just need to see if they do well in the next two tracks, which are power ones, If they do well, I'll eat my words and stop.


Sorry, but you said you did not see any PU improvement with Honda. I think it is quite clear you did not see this because you haven’t looked closely enough.

In 2019, Honda is a step closer to the top than Renault was in 2018. I don’t think this can be disputed - at all.

#285 NixxxoN

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 15:09

I would argue that Silverstone is the most powerful track but anyway.

Didn't Max start down the order though? So maybe not the best example, or is that just "luck" (but in a bad way of course)?

Edit: If there was a WHOLE WEEKEND where nobody had no problems (if we are going to be that picky anyway) then it's Silverstone or Hungary.

Yeah, he lost some places at the start, however Max was noticeably quicker than everybody else at turn 1. Thats down to chassis not power. Sorry to be stubborn!
Anyway its not a particularly hard track to overtake the RB Ring with two kinda long and consecutive DRS straights.
 

Sorry, but you said you did not see any PU improvement with Honda. I think it is quite clear you did not see this because you haven’t looked closely enough.

In 2019, Honda is a step closer to the top than Renault was in 2018. I don’t think this can be disputed - at all.

What I said is that I did not see any noticeable power deficit reduction vs Merc/Ferrari, compared to 2018 Renault

Edited by NixxxoN, 05 August 2019 - 15:12.


#286 Requiem84

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 15:12

What I said is that I did not see any noticeable power deficit reduction vs Merc/Ferrari, compared to 2018 Renault


Which is clearly and demonstratively wrong.

It’s like I’m showing you a bottle of coca cola in front of your face and you keep on saying, nope it isn’t there 😄.

#287 NixxxoN

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 15:14

Which is clearly and demonstratively wrong.

It’s like I’m showing you a bottle of coca cola in front of your face and you keep on saying, nope it isn’t there .

To me it is not, YET :)

I'll stop here, no point continuing, you have your opinion I have mine. I can see the bulls fall behind Merc/Ferrari in Spa and Monza, and if they dont, I'll admit I was wrong, thats it, end of.

Edited by NixxxoN, 05 August 2019 - 15:15.


#288 Requiem84

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 15:16

The stubbornness of internet fora.

Sometimes I wonder why we argue at all if convincing arguments seem to help nada :-).

#289 f1paul

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 15:18

Yeah, he lost some places at the start, however Max was noticeably quicker than everybody else at turn 1. Thats down to chassis not power. Sorry to be stubborn!
Anyway its not a particularly hard track to overtake the RB Ring with two kinda long and consecutive DRS straights.

 
What I said is that I did not see any noticeable power deficit reduction vs Merc/Ferrari, compared to 2018 Renault

You were talking about Canada though?  :confused:  My response had nothing to do with Austria in that post?

 

Its getting confusing now anyway Nixxon clearly quite a few people disagree with you here. Sorry to be stubborn!   ;)



#290 SenorSjon

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 15:18

I would argue that Silverstone is the most powerful track but anyway.

Didn't Max start down the order though? So maybe not the best example, or is that just "luck" (but in a bad way of course)?

Edit: If there was a WHOLE WEEKEND where nobody had no problems (if we are going to be that picky anyway) then it's Silverstone or Hungary.

Verstappen atruggled with lag in Silverstone, stating it cost him 1-2 tenths. Look up what the difference to pole was again...

Renault can say they have 1.000 hp just before it explodes, but that isn't really helping them.

@Nixxon, Mercedes suffered from heat just like RB had to run very conservative in France. You can discard those races against each other. And also luck is not scorching heat in Hungary, saving the Merc and making a fast medium run possible. See what I did there?

Edited by SenorSjon, 05 August 2019 - 15:20.


#291 JeePee

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 15:19

Mercedes hasn't won a race on merit this year. Just luck their car has the most downforce and mechanical grip.



#292 f1paul

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 15:20

Verstappen atruggled with lag in Silverstone, stating it cost him 1-2 tenths. Look up what the difference to pole was again...

Renault can say they have 1.000 hp just before it explodes, but that isn't really helping them.

@Nixxon, Mercedes suffered from heat just like RB had to run very conservative in France. You discard those races. And also luck is not scorching heat in Hungary, saving the Merc and making a fast medium run possible. See what I did there?

So Red Bull could have been even better then!

 

But according to Nixxon, they have not improved from last year to this year in terms of the power unit despite them improving on the most recent power sensitive tracks.



#293 f1paul

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 15:20

Mercedes hasn't won a race on merit this year. Just luck their car has the most downforce and mechanical grip.

 

Ferrari haven't won a race on merit this year. Just lu....… well...…. Ferrari haven't won a race.


Edited by f1paul, 05 August 2019 - 15:28.


#294 Fatgadget

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 16:54

What speed? I mean, I dont see improvement over last year. They won in germany because it was wet, hamilton was ill, and all that crazyness that happened.
You can get poles with less power in twisty tracks. "Whatever the circuit" is simply wrong becuase it matters a lot.

Let's wait and see for the next two tracks where power matters a lot.

And who is to say the other teams will be sitting down twiddling their thumbs in the meantime?



#295 rf90

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 17:05

That Honda engine is there or thereabouts.It certainly has the measure of the Ferrari judging by how the Red Bull package perfomed during qualy and the race.

 

I think Max may have had a hand in that performance.



#296 rf90

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 17:08

No. I  mean in absolute terms. You dont bag pole positions without serious grunt from your engine.Whatever the circuit.

 

True, to an extent, but when there are two other car makes with more serious grunt, pole is very impressive.



#297 Collombin

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 19:59

I prefer to to say "Merc was just too fast today"


I think Max may have had a hand in that performance.


So when Max does well it's the driver, when Lewis does well it's the car. Got it.

#298 djparky

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 20:09

Mercedes is still the fastest car, and Hamilton has a big points lead and pretty much bullet proof reliability, and the Ferraris will sometimes get in the mix

I agree with previous post that it's a bit reminiscent of 1991 when Williams gradually started challenging Mclaren

#299 shure

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 20:22

Mercedes hasn't won a race on merit this year. Just luck their car has the most downforce and mechanical grip.

er, how is that not merit?  If they built the best car, they don't deserve the wins?



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#300 MikeTekRacing

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 20:34

I think Max may have had a hand in that performance.

while the Mercedes was just driving itself?