1938 replies to this topic

[Klauzer]

The cynic(/romantic?) in me wonders whether the Mercedes strategists are having a bit of a laugh with us this season and deliberately engineering scenarios to create “great” races and great legendary Hamilton performances. Monaco the most obvious example, but now here. With the possible proviso re: tyres and brake temps, it did seem likely that Hamilton would get Verstappen without stopping again. The theory that he was struggling to get past is severely undermined by the fact that Verstappen was getting very lucky repeatedly picking up DRS from back markers, which was clearly not going to endure indefinitely.

Anyway, back to the more “serious” point - what to look out for next? Hamilton’s gear box restricting him to fifth gear? A late parc ferme change necessitating starting from the pit lane?

 

After the first pit stops, Verstappen had a 5 second or so lead over Hamilton (after Hamilton stayed out longer on his used tyres). Over 2 laps or so, he cut Verstappen's lead right down to under 1 second (off-camera because the TV coverage sucked). It was a crazy pace difference which made me think Verstappen had a problem. Once he was behind him, he began stagnating again & made one small attempt to pass before sitting back (until his second stop & the result we saw).

 

I did think that massive Mercedes pace advantage after the first stop was "strange". So you're not the only one who's contemplated the notion their car is massively better than everyone else's. But to counter that I could point out that Bottas was terrible, but so was Gasly (in the other Red Bull), ergo a claim would also be made that both cars between teammates aren't exactly equal considering the real number one status of the guys in front.

 

Whatever it was, it was a good race. Vettel also managed to chase down 19 seconds on Leclerc over 30 laps, so Hamilton's exploit wasn't totally unusual on Sunday because the conditions were there for that sort of tyre advantage.  

[peroa]

After the first pit stops, Verstappen had a 5 second or so lead over Hamilton (after Hamilton stayed out longer on his used tyres). Over 2 laps or so, he cut Verstappen's lead right down to under 1 second (off-camera because the TV coverage sucked). It was a crazy pace difference which made me think Verstappen had a problem. Once he was behind him, he began stagnating again & made one small attempt to pass before sitting back (until his second stop & the result we saw).

 

I did think that massive Mercedes pace advantage after the first stop was "strange". So you're not the only one who's contemplated the notion their car is massively better than everyone else's. But to counter that I could point out that Bottas was terrible, but so was Gasly (in the other Red Bull), ergo a claim would also be made that both cars between teammates aren't exactly equal considering the real number one status of the guys in front.

 

Whatever it was, it was a good race. Vettel also managed to chase down 19 seconds on Leclerc over 30 laps, so Hamilton's exploit wasn't totally unusual on Sunday because the conditions were there for that sort of tyre advantage.  

IMHO Max had to hold back a bit on the hard tyres, he was facing a long stint after all, I also think the RBR didn't like the hard tyre as much.

Lewis basically did the same he did to Bottas in Silverstone, make the opponent drive faster than he feels comfortable so his tyres wear off quicker.

[Requiem84]

After the first pit stops, Verstappen had a 5 second or so lead over Hamilton (after Hamilton stayed out longer on his used tyres). Over 2 laps or so, he cut Verstappen's lead right down to under 1 second (off-camera because the TV coverage sucked). It was a crazy pace difference which made me think Verstappen had a problem. Once he was behind him, he began stagnating again & made one small attempt to pass before sitting back (until his second stop & the result we saw).

 

I did think that massive Mercedes pace advantage after the first stop was "strange". So you're not the only one who's contemplated the notion their car is massively better than everyone else's. But to counter that I could point out that Bottas was terrible, but so was Gasly (in the other Red Bull), ergo a claim would also be made that both cars between teammates aren't exactly equal considering the real number one status of the guys in front.

 

Whatever it was, it was a good race. Vettel also managed to chase down 19 seconds on Leclerc over 30 laps, so Hamilton's exploit wasn't totally unusual on Sunday because the conditions were there for that sort of tyre advantage.  

 

Usually you see that new tires last a lot longer when you take it a bit easier the first few laps out of the pits. 

 

As Max knew he had to do 45 laps on those hards, he was pacing a lot the first laps out of the pits. Perhaps a bit too much, because Hamilton was gaining on him indeed with about 2+ seconds a lap. 

 

I think RB learned a valuable strategy lesson this Sunday. Strategy is a lot different when you are in the lead and sometimes you have to be willing to give up track position in the situation that you know your competitor will have a huge tire advantage at the end of the race when close behind you. 

 

To me it seemed track position was their number 1 priority. And in hindsight (again, so easy for us to say now) they prioritized it too much to have a (small) chance of winning. 

[Marklar]

Gary Anderson reckons RB should have pitted Max for softs with about 11 laps to go when his times first dropped...

If this was Spa they might have done this.

[TomNokoe]

L48 HAM PIT ENTRY +1.167

L49 HAM PIT EXIT +20.811
L49 VER PIT ENTRY +20.269 (HAM approaching S2 split)

Red Bull could have risked the stop IMO. Another 1.8-2.0s stop and they probably would've made it. Lewis would've been right on his tail, though,

 

By the time Hamilton crossed the line at the end of L49, the gap was down to +19.231, such was Hamilton's pace in the final sector.

Edited by TomNokoe, 06 August 2019 - 09:34.

[OO7]

L48 PIT ENTRY HAM +1.167

L49 PIT EXIT HAM +20.811
L49 VER PIT ENTRY +20.269

Red Bull could have risked it IMO

Yep, they could have, however if they'd made that choice and come out behind Hamilton, everyone would've said it was a ridiculous strategy, that track position is king.

[Spyker]

After the first pit stops, Verstappen had a 5 second or so lead over Hamilton (after Hamilton stayed out longer on his used tyres). Over 2 laps or so, he cut Verstappen's lead right down to under 1 second (off-camera because the TV coverage sucked). It was a crazy pace difference which made me think Verstappen had a problem. Once he was behind him, he began stagnating again & made one small attempt to pass before sitting back (until his second stop & the result we saw).

 

I did think that massive Mercedes pace advantage after the first stop was "strange". So you're not the only one who's contemplated the notion their car is massively better than everyone else's. But to counter that I could point out that Bottas was terrible, but so was Gasly (in the other Red Bull), ergo a claim would also be made that both cars between teammates aren't exactly equal considering the real number one status of the guys in front.

 

Whatever it was, it was a good race. Vettel also managed to chase down 19 seconds on Leclerc over 30 laps, so Hamilton's exploit wasn't totally unusual on Sunday because the conditions were there for that sort of tyre advantage.  

I don't actually think the pace advantage was all that big, if at all. After Ham's first stop he was running in the mid 1:19's, the Red Bull was able to run at that pace later on, no problem. I just think Ham caught Max napping after his first pit stop and Max failed to react, until Hamilton was on his ass. Then he made Max wear down his tyres (Check), and gave Merc the ability to pull off the checkmate strategy. All Max needed was a 2-5s gap to Hamilton and he would've been able to react to Ham's second stop.

[zanquis]

L48 HAM PIT ENTRY +1.167

L49 HAM PIT EXIT +20.811
L49 VER PIT ENTRY +20.269 (HAM approaching S2 split)

Red Bull could have risked the stop IMO. Another 1.8-2.0s stop and they probably would've made it. Lewis would've been right on his tail, though,

 

By the time Hamilton crossed the line at the end of L49, the gap was down to +19.231, such was Hamilton's pace in the final sector.

 

Even if they managed to keep Max in front of Lewis, Lewis tires would be at just he right temperature by then vs Max tires not yet, Lewis would have carved passed Max in the first few corners. If they wanted to do it, max needed to instantly switch and push out a faster lap with full engine mode on to counter the undercut.

[robefc]

L48 HAM PIT ENTRY +1.167

L49 HAM PIT EXIT +20.811
L49 VER PIT ENTRY +20.269 (HAM approaching S2 split)

Red Bull could have risked the stop IMO. Another 1.8-2.0s stop and they probably would've made it. Lewis would've been right on his tail, though,

 

By the time Hamilton crossed the line at the end of L49, the gap was down to +19.231, such was Hamilton's pace in the final sector.

 

Doesn't your last sentence contradict your second from last sentence?

[OO7]

Even if they managed to keep Max in front of Lewis, Lewis tires would be at just he right temperature by then vs Max tires not yet, Lewis would have carved passed Max in the first few corners. If they wanted to do it, max needed to instantly switch and push out a faster lap with full engine mode on to counter the undercut.

Tyre temps usually doesn't make that sort of a difference in F1, although there have been some rare exceptions.

[Beamer]

Tyre temps usually doesn't make that sort of a difference in F1, although there have been some rare exceptions.

Uh... I think they do

[OO7]

Uh... I think they do

This isn't like Indycar though, where cars really struggle due to the lack of tyre warmers.  It is extremely rare in F1 for a car to be overtaken because of 'cold tyres' out of the pits.

[Retrofly]

Remembering back to race day, it irked me how everyone was so quick to trash Mercs strategy decisions, I hope they are eating some humble pie now.

 

 

Merc are idiots jesus christ

It's over. Vowles strikes again.

merc always leave it too long to pit

Mercedes only chance was to try the undercut. Instead they go with this horrible overcut that almost always loses them time.

Honestly Merc

FFS pit him in you bunch of *****

What a clowns at the Merc pitwall.

Mercedes blew it. They should have brought him in immediately.

Never learn from their past, it’s insane. Hamilton is not going to magically pull out tons of time, this reliance on him to make the difference that isn’t there is tiresome

Absolute madness! Pit him you fools!

Omg again Mercedes bad calls left n right

Just how useless a strategy can Mercedes come up with?! WTF

The brain dead Mercedes strategist at it again

Hamilton pits, Mercedes have lost him his chance of winning this race, slow stop as well.

Absolute morons

Bit of a nothing strategy from Mercedes.

It's lucky Merc have a great car and a great driver because they are amazingly awful at everything else

Mercedes are useless. They do this every time. [ ]

slow pitstop,waited too long to pit lewis.
race over...

Every. Bloody. Time. Stupid, stupid Merc.

Mercedes honestly

Mercedes bosses must be huge fans of Verstappen, they just screwed Lewis over big time by keeping him out then doing a really slow stop.

I feel like Mercedes aren’t used to actually fighting other teams and their strategists just don’t have that recent experience.

 

Edited by Retrofly, 06 August 2019 - 11:04.

[milestone 11]

Remembering back to race day, it irked me how everyone was so quick to trash Mercs strategy decisions, I hope they are eating some humble pie now.

 

 

It's called hindsight. Who can say whether the first stop strategy was right though, did it have any bearing on the end result? 

[Astandahl]

Remembering back to race day, it irked me how everyone was so quick to trash Mercs strategy decisions, I hope they are eating some humble pie now.

 

 

That doesn't surprise me. The call would have been right even if Lewis wouldn't have been able to catch Max because he didn't have the delta to overtake him with the hard tyres.

[Requiem84]

I don't actually think the pace advantage was all that big, if at all. After Ham's first stop he was running in the mid 1:19's, the Red Bull was able to run at that pace later on, no problem. I just think Ham caught Max napping after his first pit stop and Max failed to react, until Hamilton was on his ass. Then he made Max wear down his tyres (Check), and gave Merc the ability to pull off the checkmate strategy. All Max needed was a 2-5s gap to Hamilton and he would've been able to react to Ham's second stop.

 

Don't you think RB was monitoring Hamilton's progress after his pitstop? I reckon they were fully aware of the pace Hamilton had. They decided not to ask Max to increase his pace already, because (perhaps, my assumption) they were afraid that Max wouldn't make the end if he started pushing too early on those tires. 

[Retrofly]

It's called hindsight. Who can say whether the first stop strategy was right though, did it have any bearing on the end result? 

Its also called counting your chickens before they've hatched.

 

And I still believe that there was no option for the undercut, Leclerc was too close (Lewis actually had  bad stop so yes probably would have come out behind Leclerc).

Edited by Retrofly, 06 August 2019 - 11:40.

[milestone 11]

What chickens? Their aren't any.

[TomNokoe]

Doesn't your last sentence contradict your second from last sentence?

Impossible to say. The pitstop delta changes depending on how fast your opposition are. That's why it costs less in the wet. That is an extreme example, but if you go from setting 1:21s to 1:19s... a pitstop might cost you 0.5s-1.0s more.

When Verstappen was at pit entry, you'd say he just about had the gap with about 0.5s spare, but with Hamilton setting super-quick purples, he very well might have made up the 0.5s in the next 30 seconds. But if Red Bull asked Max to push beforehand, and pulled off another world-record stop? I don't think it was as impossible as Horner made out.

We are dealing in split seconds here. I don't think it's a contradiction.

Edited by TomNokoe, 06 August 2019 - 12:23.

[Trust]

There was no chance for Max to pit and come out in front of Lewis. Only way he could do it is to drive through pits and don't stop for a tyre change. Then he would come out in front and still it would be hairy.

[Roadhouse]

There was no chance for Max to pit and come out in front of Lewis. Only way he could do it is to drive through pits and don't stop for a tyre change. Then he would come out in front and still it would be hairy.

 

Next thing you know RB pulls an 80km/h rolling pit 'stop' out of their sleeves.

[Spyker]

Don't you think RB was monitoring Hamilton's progress after his pitstop? I reckon they were fully aware of the pace Hamilton had. They decided not to ask Max to increase his pace already, because (perhaps, my assumption) they were afraid that Max wouldn't make the end if he started pushing too early on those tires. 

 

I do, but they clearly made the wrong decision. They had the opportunity to drop down to the 1:20's and maintain a gap that would've left them in prime position. 

 

Everybody is talking about Merc's amazing strategy call, and it was a great call, but it was only possible because Ham was so close. Had RB used their tyre advantage when Hamilton extended his first stint and dropped his lap times, or even matched Ham's pace once he was out, Merc could never have pulled off the strategy.

[TomNokoe]

There was no chance for Max to pit and come out in front of Lewis. Only way he could do it is to drive through pits and don't stop for a tyre change. Then he would come out in front and still it would be hairy.

I appreciate the hyperbolic intent, but you're incorrect. Again, look at the times.
 

Hamilton had only undercut 0.55s out of the 1.1s gap by the time Max was at pit entry. A slick entry/stop/exit and it would've been close.

Hamilton's 2nd stop was 2.6s, for example. Red Bull pull out a 2.0s again? Doable.

Etc.

Edited by TomNokoe, 06 August 2019 - 12:49.

[robefc]

Impossible to say. The pitstop delta changes depending on how fast your opposition are. That's why it costs less in the wet. That is an extreme example, but if you go from setting 1:21s to 1:19s... a pitstop might cost you 0.5s-1.0s more.

When Verstappen was at pit entry, you'd say he just about had the gap with about 0.5s spare, but with Hamilton setting super-quick purples, he very well might have made up the 0.5s in the next 30 seconds. But if Red Bull asked Max to push beforehand, and pulled off another world-record stop? I don't think it was as impossible as Horner made out.

We are dealing in split seconds here. I don't think it's a contradiction.

 

If you'd said that rather than 'probably would have made it' then I agree, no contraction. 

 

I see your point, I suspect the likelihood is Lewis would have managed it but not a certainty. Probably less chance than the tyres not making it and Lewis pulling off the chase (talking without hindsight)

 

I like Gary Anderson's suggestion that when his lap times dropped substantially with 11 laps to go of going onto softs (assuming they were aware it wasn't an aberration).

[zanquis]

Tyre temps usually doesn't make that sort of a difference in F1, although there have been some rare exceptions.

 

Tire temperatures don't make that sort of difference in F1? Have you been watching a different F1 the past years? a few degree difference in tires or track temperature can be a huge difference.

[OO7]

Tire temperatures don't make that sort of difference in F1? Have you been watching a different F1 the past years? a few degree difference in tires or track temperature can be a huge difference.

Yes, I know this can be a general issue with the Pirelli's, but when was the last time you heard drivers complaining that they struggled with out laps due to tyre temps?

[TomNokoe]

A few more numbers:

VER 1st stop
Entry -1.438s
Exit +18.568s
20.006s (2.68s stop)

VER 2nd stop
Entry +2.703
Exit +22.362
19.659s (2.26s stop)

HAM 1st stop
Entry -15.884
Exit +5.859
21.743s (4.01s stop)

HAM 2nd stop
Entry +1.167
Exit +20.811
19.644s (2.35s stop)

--

200m mini-loops MAX vs HAM outlap
+20.811s (HAM pit exit entry T1)
+21.036
+21.275
+21.115
+21.094
+21.092 (HAM S1 split)
+20.979
+20.814
+20.681
+20.619
+20.319
+20.269 (VER pit entry)
+20.221
+20.141 (HAM S2 split)
+20.104 (VER S/F)
+19.834
+19.535
+19.271
+19.231 (HAM S/F)
 

Edited by TomNokoe, 06 August 2019 - 13:49.

[zanquis]

Yes, I know this can be a general issue with the Pirelli's, but when was the last time you heard drivers complaining that they struggled with out laps due to tyre temps?

 

They don't complain, but we seen drivers being passed just coming out of the pits by drivers who had their tires changed a lap earlier enough times. There is a clear advantage. Most drivers don't take more than half a lap to make it small enough but those first corners, and in Hungary they are great oppertunities to try anyway.

[robefc]

A few more numbers:
VER 1st stop
Entry -1.438s
Exit +18.568s20.006s (2.68s stop)
VER 2nd stop
Entry +2.703
Exit +22.36219.929s (2.26s stop)
HAM 1st stop
Entry -15.884
Exit +5.85921.743s (4.01s stop)
HAM 2nd stop
Entry +1.167
Exit +20.81119.644s (2.35s stop)
--
200m mini-loops MAX vs HAM outlap
+20.811s (HAM pit exit entry T1)
+21.036
+21.275
+21.115
+21.094
+21.092 (HAM S1 split)
+20.979
+20.814
+20.681
+20.619
+20.319
+20.269 (VER pit entry)
+20.221
+20.141 (HAM S2 split)
+20.104 (VER S/F)
+19.834
+19.535
+19.271
+19.231 (HAM S/F)

You have to include the 1 sec Lewis gains between max being at pit entry and Lewis at s/f right? So no chance for Max to come out ahead?

Edited by robefc, 06 August 2019 - 13:52.

[Retrofly]

There's a big unknown surely between the time Max would have come in and the time Lewis would have taken to finish the lap. And then on top of that any stuck wheel or broken wheel gun and it means curtains for Max.

[TomNokoe]

You have to include the 1 sec Lewis gains between max being at pit entry and Lewis at s/f right? So no chance for Max to come out ahead?

I don't know. It's too complicated for me to get my head around, honestly.

I'm just trying to prove it was closer than Horner made out.

Also worth noting that Max did not set a personal best in any of the sectors during that lap. Driver tracker shows he had two lapped cars ahead.

Edited by TomNokoe, 06 August 2019 - 13:59.

[milestone 11]

 

 

I like Gary Anderson's suggestion that when his lap times dropped substantially with 11 laps to go of going onto softs (assuming they were aware it wasn't an aberration).

That was the only solution to their predicament, I'd have done it earlier and not worried about the track position.

[robefc]

I don't know. It's too complicated for me to get my head around, honestly.
I'm just trying to prove it was closer than Horner made out.
Also worth noting that Max did not set a personal best in any of the sectors during that lap. Driver tracker shows he had two lapped cars ahead.

That's the only thing that could make it work (relatively mega in lap) combined with 2sec stop or less and still reckon it was unlikely. Think RB are basically right...especially as they probably understand these numbers better than us!

[robefc]

That was the only solution to their predicament, I'd have done it earlier and not worried about the track position.

I don't think it would make sense to do it earlier because presumably at that point they felt the hard tyres would make it in ok shape.

They didn't see Bottas's tyres I guess - maybe Bottas won Merc the gp!

[milestone 11]

I don't think it would make sense to do it earlier because presumably at that point they felt the hard tyres would make it in ok shape.

They didn't see Bottas's tyres I guess - maybe Bottas won Merc the gp!

New softs against well worn hards is a no contest. When given the opportunity, Max showed what he was capable of doing with them.

[OO7]

They don't complain, but we seen drivers being passed just coming out of the pits by drivers who had their tires changed a lap earlier enough times. There is a clear advantage. Most drivers don't take more than half a lap to make it small enough but those first corners, and in Hungary they are great oppertunities to try anyway.

The only such passes I recall (in any meaningful number), are those caused by tyre offsets or the car that has just pitted being wrong footed in the first few corners due to positioning more than anything else.  I think it's a stretch to put it down to tyre temps the vast majority of the time.

[SonGoku]

I rewatched the race and people now saying it was dead certain the right choice are funny in hindsight.

The gap wasn't closing at all fast enough and they were running out of laps. If Max could do a few more 1.19 laps he would have made it.

[robefc]

They don't complain, but we seen drivers being passed just coming out of the pits by drivers who had their tires changed a lap earlier enough times. There is a clear advantage. Most drivers don't take more than half a lap to make it small enough but those first corners, and in Hungary they are great oppertunities to try anyway.

 

We've also seen cars come out of the pits and just drive away from the car attempting the under cut and set fastest sector times using their new grip.

 

There's nothing clear about it, depends on the tyres, track conditions etc.

Edited by robefc, 06 August 2019 - 14:23.

[milestone 11]

Indeed, there is no algorithm to which one could apply every scenario.