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Are auction prices softening right now ?


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#1 rl1856

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 12:51

I spent last night watching web streams of the Gooding & Co Auction (YouTube), and RM Sotheby’s (IPad web stream), from Pebble Beach.

There were some beautiful cars sold, however my observation is that many expensive and desireable cars did not reach estimate levels. Previous auctions resulted in many cars matching or exceeding estimates. Is the market changing ? I noted there were a lot of very high end cars coming into the market recently and I wonder if owners/investors/speculators want to cash out now before the next recession.

Bugatti 57 Atalante sold for $1.2mm vs 1.7-2.25mm est
Black on black Gullwing sold for $1.3mm vs 1.5-1.8mm est
1958 Ferrari 250 TDF with racing history sold for $4.75mm vs 5.5-6mm est
1975 Ferrari 312T French GP winner sold for $5.45mm vs 6-8mm est
1962 Ferrari 250GT Calf sold for $9mm vs 11-13mm est

Several Aston Martin Vantages for a few hundred K below est,

However the Goldfinger DB5 sold for$6.4mm vs 5-6mm est.

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#2 pilota

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 14:15

I think you're right. Sellers are still expecting top prices.

Nathan



#3 kayemod

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 17:46

I think you're right. Sellers are still expecting top prices.

Nathan

 

Sign if the times, reality strikes. It's the same with house prices, sellers are still asking the same money they would have done a year or so ago, but buyers aren't biting, I suspect it's the same with cars. I have a friend who knows how to find out actual house selling prices, and almost all sellers have accepted less, a lot less in many cases than they were originally asking, just to get a deal. Not only are some car sellers hoping for top prices, but they're also setting unrealistic reserves, so unless deals are done backstage, many lots are remaining unsold.



#4 Collombin

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 18:36

I have a friend who knows how to find out actual house selling prices


In the UK? I think most people know that, they are readily and freely available to view on rightmove for example, showing actual selling price history going back 20 odd years.

#5 moffspeed

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 19:12

Yes the top end stuff is generally stalling at somewhere below predicted prices, witness the Alfa 8C-2300 and Old Mother Gun (1928 Bentley LM winner) both of which failed to hit saleable bidding levels at the Bonhams FoS sale.  It seems to be a reasonable time to buy the less exotic (but not run-of-the-mill) stuff - eg MGAs,Gordon Keeble, AC Aceca/Greyhound and similar, they are drifting back into affordable territory.

 

Still a fickle business though - a few years back you couldn't give XJ220s away - the low mileage version at Goodwood managed £414,000. 

 

Of course, inexplicably, you'll still pay up to £40,000 for a Mk1 Mexico and £10 grand more for a Mk2 RS2000...


Edited by moffspeed, 17 August 2019 - 19:14.


#6 chr1s

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 19:27

I have long suspected that the reason classic car prices are so high is down to the owners telling other owners how much they think their cars are worth. Which is fine until you actually try to sell on the open market. Also its virtually impossible to find a classic being sold privately, anything that is seems to get snapped up by dealers and speculators who think that by increasing the price by 50% is the way to get rich quick. But the result is the whole market just grinds to a halt!



#7 Dipster

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 20:06

Have you seen what is happening on stock markets?

 

Between things like Trump, the Brexit fiasco and the sheer magnitude of indebtedness of both governments and citizens in major economies I think people with any cash are beginning to see that economies in principal countries may well go really pear-shaped in the not too distant future. Then prices of most everything will probably go down. So why buy a classic now?

 

May be cheaper soon..... 



#8 Jack-the-Lad

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Posted 18 August 2019 - 15:09

I counted about 50 (!) "still for sale" at RMS.

Edited by Jack-the-Lad, 18 August 2019 - 15:10.


#9 kayemod

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Posted 18 August 2019 - 22:09

How much would any of us pay for this "Nazi Porsche" It didn't belong to Adolf, so I'd say that "German Porsche" (Though aren't they all?), would be a more accurate description.

 

https://www.theguard...othebys-auction



#10 mariner

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Posted 19 August 2019 - 00:18

I havent been following auction prices as I can't afford them!

 

However two things may impact the UK upper end classic scene.

 

Firstly Sterling as fallen recently due to Brexit etc so , in theory, UK sterling prices should rise as the market is global.

 

However true Historics qualify  as works of art in the UK and can be imported from outside the EU at nil duty and 5% VAT.

 

This is not the same as some other EU countries where art is charged at 20% . However once you bring it in to UK it is in "free circulation".. 

 

So it has probably made sense to import to EU via UK. Now that situation is under threat and the FT reports art owners and dealers moving stuff into rest of EU just in case. 

 

This only applies to imports from outside Eu like USA or OZ but it could have some  effect .



#11 T54

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Posted 19 August 2019 - 23:01

"Have you seen what is happening on stock markets?"

Dipster, in November 2016, just before that Trump fellow was elected, the Dow was at 18,260 points. Today, it closed at 26136, after flirting a couple weeks ago above 27000.
Despite all efforts by his rather ferocious opposition to claim that a recession is near, there are no such signs on the horizon according to the ones who are more economically versed, and less interested by politics.

So I am not sure of what you are talking about, but regarding the collectors cars values, it surprises no one to see a softening of the truly insane prices of the past few years, because it was and is just that, insanity.

But a 275GTB, that you could buy after the first big 1991 crash, for under $200K in 2000, 2001, is still $1.5 million today. The real question is, why, or why is it that a McLaren F1, that could be had for under $1M 10 years ago, rushed to nearly $20M 2-3 years ago?

If that makes ANY sense to anyone, I have a few things for sale right now, call me.



#12 Peter Morley

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 09:33

There's an issue that more people are wanting to buy younger cars these days.

Prices of 70s/80s cars are increasing and prices for recent "limited edition" stuff are crazy.

 

Currently something like a Sierra Cosworth is more desired than say a Mark 2 Jaguar and making better prices.



#13 john aston

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Posted 21 August 2019 - 06:18

I find it all rather crass, and deprecate the tendency of Motor Sport , as well as all the other magazines, indulging in editorial chin-stroking on the fluctuation in value of cars hardly any of us can afford anyway  .Ultimately thus is about some weird vicarious kick about how rich people -or 'high net worth' as they are portentously entitled - spend their money on cars civilians like me will probably never see again. 

 

I adore 275 GTBs and McLaren F1s , and have seen them action on track many times but couldn't care a tinker's cuss whether their crazy overprices have ...ummm ...softened or hardened . But DB 5s going for $5m just because a made up character once drive one in a film ? Ger out of here ...

 

What's that expression about knowing  the price of everything and the value of nothing?  :eek:       



#14 2F-001

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Posted 21 August 2019 - 08:31

Indeed.

As an aside to that, the current issue features a Mk 1 Escort RS1600 offered at something over 78,000 UKP (more than the figure realised for a BRM tc engined 26R - reported elsewhere in the same issue), but the Escort is said to be fitted with a twincam.
I thought that originality and ‘matching numbers’ were the prized attributes these days; why would an RS1600 have a twink? Doesn’t that just make it a ‘’bitsa’.

WGM.

#15 BRG

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Posted 21 August 2019 - 16:15

Indeed.

As an aside to that, the current issue features a Mk 1 Escort RS1600 offered at something over 78,000 UKP (more than the figure realised for a BRM tc engined 26R - reported elsewhere in the same issue), but the Escort is said to be fitted with a twincam.
I thought that originality and ‘matching numbers’ were the prized attributes these days; why would an RS1600 have a twink? Doesn’t that just make it a ‘’bitsa’.

WGM.

I raised an eyebrow at that too.  Looking at the seller's website, it seems that it was an original Twin-Cam that was updated to RS1600 in period so it is indeed a bitsa, but so are very many Escorts!.  The sellers seem to be a bit hazy about the difference between a twin-cam engine and a BDA.

 

It is & has always been a racing saloon and it is said to be ready to race in Historics.  Whether it is worth the asking price remains to be seen.  If it had better provenance it might command a premium but it appears to have been in the hands of club racers rather than anyone of repute.


Edited by BRG, 21 August 2019 - 16:16.


#16 chr1s

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Posted 28 August 2019 - 20:23

I noticed that the ex-Frank Williams Ferrari Dino is still for sale a year after I started the thread. Its down to £339,995.....



#17 Doug Nye

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Posted 29 August 2019 - 21:45

The simple answer to the title of this thread is:

 

"Generally speaking...YES - but there are and will be exceptions."

 

Historically - it's a cyclical characteristic - expected - so in many ways predictable... 

 

DCN