74 replies to this topic

[Muppetmad]

The previous thread was published on 1 May 2017; today, over two years later, we have our answer: Charles Leclerc is the 108th F1 GP winner. So who will be next, and for how long will we be waiting? Poll choices are in no particular order, with the F2 and F3 choices being based on my own personal observations - if you think my choices are wrong, please select "An option not listed here" and write a post telling me why I'm wrong 

 

I think this one rests on what Albon can do in the rest of the season. Either this thread will be short lived, or it could take some years to be resolved. If Albon can't pull it off, I'll go completely out there and take a punt on Jüri Vips. 

 

Edit: Added a second poll for when the next winner will come!

Edited by Muppetmad, 01 September 2019 - 15:57.

[CSF]

Albon, Norris or Sainz you have to think. 

[TomNokoe]

Albon surely

[ch103]

chose Albon in 2019.  Mexico likely if Max has issues.

[sportyskells]

I say Norris

Edited by sportyskells, 01 September 2019 - 16:20.

[MKSixer]

Albon.  Next year.  I think he will surprise many and Max a fight. I've never seen a more unflappable rookie in F1.  He is going to be one of the best.

[Coral]

Albon. He is a little star, I like him.

[DarthWillie]

Russel

[DS27]

I was going to vote Ocon, but then remembered he is racing for Team Clown, so the obvious choice is Albon.

[eibyyz]

Mick Schumacher, 2022.

[Stephane]

Albon has the better car of them all at the moment.

[Claymore25]

Albon would be the logical choice.

 

Norris if McLaren level up their car.

[Risil]

Abalone by the end of the year

[MattK9]

I don't think albon will win this year. I would love to be proved wrong.

The most likely to win next will be whoever gets the red bull drive next year.

[Spillage]

Probably Albon. Next year. Maybe. All of my predictions turn out to be wrong.

[Marklar]

If Albon doesnt manage it next year. I assume Russell in 2021 has the best shot if he gets the Mercedes.

Though if the rule changes work we could see more new winners that year.

[maximilian]

If Albon doesn't grab this Bull by the horns while he can, it could well be who ever replaces him (if not already a winner).  Otherwise, I would think it'll be Russell, whenever he's called up for Mercedes.

 

But looking at Alex' progress, I wouldn't be surprised to see him keep this ride, and to be the next new winner in F1. 

[CL16]

Albon or Russel you’d be have to think, Hulk if he replaces Vettel.

[garoidb]

It would help to know if Albon is going to have a full season in 2020, as his prospects depend entirely on the whims of the Red Bull hierarchy. I have voted for him as he is the only one with a current prospect of winning, and the others may not get such a chance for years if ever. Of the list, I think Norris, Sainz, Ocon and Russell are also probable future GP winners, but perhaps not all of them will make it.

[Heyli]

Based purely on today, Albon is the logical choice. I´d like to watch the next few weekends though to see where he really stands compared to Max...

[cpbell]

I suspect Norris in 2021, but I might well be wrong if Albon continues to perform as he did today.

[noikeee]

This is wide open. Albon has the best car of the non winners at the moment, and looked good on his Red Bull debut so seems the favourite. But with Red Bull only competitive enough to fight for wins in select races, he'll need to beat Max in one of those or hope Max falls off for some reason - not a given, unless Red Bull keep on getting better and better and have a shot at more races. Or they nail the 2021 regs.

If not him then it's who gets the next top seat to become available. Russell then looks the next favourite as he's next in line for Mercedes (or is it Ocon when he's freed from Renault?), but a lot could change in the coming years, we don't even know which teams could be competitive in 2021. The likes of Norris, Sainz, could become in demand and jump to a good seat; or Renault could become good enough for race wins and give the chance to Ocon. Or maybe it's a complete freak race (wet, SCs, etc), the competitive order is much tighter allowing for wins from midfield teams, and someone like Perez gets one in the Racing Point.. Very unlikely but possible.

There's enough depth of talent in F1 at the moment to think the next winner will come from this field (plus Ocon, who technically isn't on the field right now) rather than from outside, but if we're naming outsiders the ones I suspect have a tiny chance are Vips (Red Bull connection) and Lundgaard (Renault connection). I think they have good odds to make it to F1, better than the Ferrari juniors such as Mick Schumacher and Schwartzmann for example, but to succeed for real and get into a top seat before everyone else in this list gets a win, seems unlikely.

[Sterzo]

George Russell in a Mercedes is the most likely. Second most likely is Sergio Perez after a first corner shunt taking out all Ferraris, Mercedes and Red Bulls.

[f1paul]

Guanyu Zhou.

[wj_gibson]

I would be amazed if Albon doesn’t get the full time RBR drive for 2020. So it’ll be him.

[dweller23]

Out of McLaren duo I think Sainz is much better driver, so voting for him. However, I wouldn't be surprised if Albon wins this year.

[PayasYouRace]

Albon is the only one with a winning car this year, so he's got to be in a good position to do so.

[TheFish]

Went with Albon next year as that's the logical choice.

 

Hard to know how he compares to Max after this weekend though, with the grid penalty and Max binning it in T1. Looks solid though.

 

I'd like it to be Norris, he seems like such a nice and genuine guy. Hopefully he gets a good career move after McLaren, because I can't see him winning races there any time soon.

[Fastcake]

Albon is the only likely option. He's got a race winning car after all, and Red Bull should be capable of winning more races this season. But that's only this season. The bets are off if he or anyone else in a race winning car just can't do it. Who knows what the order will be next year or what team may need a substitute. After all, LeClerc was not the obvious next winner in 2017.

 

Hopefully it won't take another two years for the next winner.

[BuddyHolly]

Voted Albon in 2020, I think he's a real talent and a genuinely nice guy as well.

[HP]

I suspect Norris in 2021, but I might well be wrong if Albon continues to perform as he did today.

I still go with Norris. Without the engine issue he would have ended ahead of Albon at Spa in a lesser car. And I don't think the McLaren is on the same level as RBR yet. Because of the car, Albon looks like he'll have the better chance, but besides Max, there is the issue of Mercedes and Hamilton.

[noriaki]

Albon's a good kid but it's been just one slightly chaotic race. Wouldn't be surprised if you re-did this poll later this year, the results would look much different. 

[NixxxoN]

Albon should be the most well positioned one to get it.

But I hope McLaren gets up there and fights for victories too and one of McLaren drivers gets it

[P123]

George Russell 2021.

Or, if Red Bull keep Albon for 2020, then good chance that it will be him.

[ElectricBoogie]

Albon next year.

Seems unlikely for the stars to align that RBR have the winning cars+strategy, Max is somehow beaten or crashed out AND Albon being close enough to the limits of the car to keep the likely challengers at bay.
Next year though, chances are the RBR is closer to the front and Albon close® to his teammate. Wins will come a lot less difficultly.

Should Hamilton somehow be absent from the grid more more than a few races next year, then Russell.

[Gorma]

Kvyat 2020 for Red Bull.

[Fastcake]

Kvyat 2020 for Red Bull.

 

I'm interested how you think that will happen. I don't see why Red Bull wouldn't keep Albon for next year, and they've already passed Kvyat over twice now anyway.

 

Unless you're predicting both that Red Bull will have a race winning car and will require a last minute substitute driver, and Kvyat is the only guy available, but that's a bit reaching...

[pitlanepalpatine]

I like the way the entire F3 Prema team is in that list but Schumacher isn't.

 

However, my money is on Russel in 2021.

[Fatgadget]

Albon, Norris or Sainz you have to think. 

  Norris and Sainz @ the current MacLaren not a chance.

[Muppetmad]

I like the way the entire F3 Prema team is in that list but Schumacher isn't.

Schumacher is among a few other drivers I would have liked to have added to the list, including Zhou and - if this had been written before last weekend - Hubert. Alas, only twenty options are possible in these polls.

[MadYarpen]

Hulkenberg.



Kidding. Probably Albon has a chance, but it is much to erlarly to rate how he does in RB

[Sterzo]

However, my money is on Russel in 2021.

They won't pay out if you spell him that way.

[Anderis]

Lance Stroll due to a risky tyre change in changeable conditions somewhere in 2020.

[NoForumForOldPole]

Hulk for Ferrari 2020 ;)

[milestone 11]

Should this be the 99th. There's a discrepancy of 10 if the Indy 500 winners are classified from the period of their inclusion.

[sopa]

It's a tough call. Albon has the best car and likely to get a contract extension at least into 2020 unless he flops during the remainder of the season. But Red Bull is only good enough for about 2-3 wins per season in the hands of the excellent Max. And with all respect, Albon may well be the worst driver among the top 3 team drivers. Of course, a one-off victory might still happen somewhere, but I'm not confident on betting on it.

 

Russell may be a contender for the 2021 Mercedes seat, but there is a lot of competition for those seats, with Hamilton, Verstappen and Bottas all in play. Not sure he would end up there, though he may. Conversely if Ferrari seat frees after 2020 due to the departure of Vettel, somebody would get a chance there. But I assume that seat could go to Ricciardo then - or failing that, Bottas. Which wouldn't add a new winner at least in Ferrari.

 

Would a current non-top3 team challenge for wins in 2021? Not sure. Would we get an underdog winner via a completely random lucky race? Who knows.

 

Not a clear-cut choice, but what is clear one day that new winner comes, whenever it happens. And Albon probably is the one with the best car at least until the end of 2020 to be closer to that opportunity in any race, which isn't a full-blown chaos.

 

So basically we are banking our hopes on one of the following:

1) Albon delivering somehow somewhere;

2) a truly crazy race unseen for a while;

3) a new top team in the future;

4) a winless driver joining a top team.

 

Let's see, which option is it going to be.

[sgtkate]

I have to say I can't see Albon winning a race this season or next really, that doesn't mean I don't rate him, I just think for any RB to win requires a lot of luck and it's more likely Max will grab the chance that comes.

 

After Albon I can't see a likely win for Norris or Sainz either as it's not going to come in the McLaren and they aren't going anywhere until 2021...

 

That brings me to George Russell who in 2021 is likely to be in a Merc and given their recent dominance he stands a good chance of a win.

 

The main big question for me that would change things is what does Vettel do? If he retires or even goes back to RB then whoever replaces him at Ferrari is going to be next on the list to win but who would that be? Unless it's Hamilton or Max of course and then it's back to Russell!

 

 

Or in other words, what Sopa wrote in the post above me!

Edited by sgtkate, 03 September 2019 - 18:00.

[MikeTekRacing]

this year none of those has a chance if the race isn't freak enough. Albon has the better car out of all, and, how things look for next year he should be favorite for this. If Russel can land a competitive drive, he also has a great chance. Norris's McLaren can also keep improving. 

 

We have some very interesting rookies on the grid.

[Beri]

Albon this season

[Muppetmad]

I bump this up because of the interesting grid we have for tomorrow. If anything happens to the Mercedes pair, could we see Stroll or Pérez becoming our next winner?