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Guess the Winning Time 2019: Russia


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#1 Marklar

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Posted 23 September 2019 - 22:19

The general idea of this game is that before the start of each race you will predict the time for the winner to complete the Grand Prix (not the driver, just his winning time). After the race I will work out based on the official winning time the difference between your predicted winning time and the actual winning time. Over the season the person who gets the lowest overall difference between their prediction and the real time will be the winner.
 
Rules

  • The deadline for your prediction is the scheduled starting time of qualifying. Any predictions made after the deadline will not be counted and 4. will apply
  • Until the deadline you can edit your guess as often as you want.
  • All times should be submitted in the form h:mm:ss.xxx (if imbigious I will simply insert a zero on the wrong digit)
  • If you miss a deadline I will take the time predicted by the player with the worst result and increase the difference by 1 minute
  • All races will count into the championship, however every player will receive one joker (i.e. his worst result will be dropped or he can affort to sit out a round)
  • In the event of an tie the best single result (then the 2nd best, 3rd best, etc.) will be used as the tiebreaker.
     

Previous Winning Times of the Russian GP


2014: 1:31:50.744
2015: 1:37:11.024
2016: 1:32:41.997
2017: 1:28:08.743
2018: 1:27:25.181

You can join the game at any time throughout the season. To have a good chance of winning the championship you should join right from the beginning!  :)
 
Deadline: Start of Qualifying



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#2 GTA

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Posted 24 September 2019 - 12:15

1:28:00.000



#3 scheivlak

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Posted 24 September 2019 - 22:14

1:34:34.456



#4 mark f1

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Posted 25 September 2019 - 12:24

1:26:50.368



#5 DutchQuicksilver

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Posted 25 September 2019 - 16:56

1:26:43.605

#6 KWSN - DSM

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Posted 25 September 2019 - 18:42

1:26.11.711

 

:cool:



#7 Makarias

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Posted 26 September 2019 - 09:27

1:26:23.355 Zonta



#8 alekracing

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Posted 26 September 2019 - 13:07

1:27:33.369



#9 thegforcemaybewithyou

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Posted 26 September 2019 - 19:27

1:27:08.721



#10 Barty

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Posted 26 September 2019 - 19:55

1:26:42.166



#11 Bleu

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Posted 26 September 2019 - 20:18

1:27:50.285



#12 Costaz

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Posted 26 September 2019 - 20:45

1:26:13.166

#13 Marklar

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Posted 26 September 2019 - 21:08

1:27:06.345



#14 Kev00

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Posted 26 September 2019 - 22:42

1:27:52.739

#15 Brawn BGP 001

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Posted 26 September 2019 - 23:05

1:30.37.393



#16 M2000-5

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Posted 27 September 2019 - 07:04

1:27:54.843



#17 Grayson

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Posted 27 September 2019 - 07:25

1:27:00.000



#18 thequadge

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Posted 28 September 2019 - 00:22

1:27:03.629


#19 f1paul

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Posted 28 September 2019 - 09:53

1:28:15.189



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#20 thequadge

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Posted 29 September 2019 - 13:52

:mad:  :mad:

 

Another prediction ruined by SC. Just calculated the standings if all the races where SC/VSC are removed and I lead by 6½ minutes! SC takes all the skill out of this. Next year I am going to run an adjusted version so we can actually do this without the random luck of SC/VSC screwing it up!


Edited by thequadge, 29 September 2019 - 13:53.


#21 scheivlak

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Posted 29 September 2019 - 14:22

:mad:  :mad:

 

Another prediction ruined by SC. Just calculated the standings if all the races where SC/VSC are removed and I lead by 6½ minutes! SC takes all the skill out of this. Next year I am going to run an adjusted version so we can actually do this without the random luck of SC/VSC screwing it up!

Ruined? This game is basically "Guess the length of SC/VSC periods". 



#22 thequadge

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Posted 29 September 2019 - 15:06

Ruined? This game is basically "Guess the length of SC/VSC periods". 

 

Well next year lets make it that! Then we can have a Winning time where we remove any VSC/SC laps and adjust the Winning time using average laptime or something?



#23 Kev00

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Posted 29 September 2019 - 15:40

:mad: :mad:

Another prediction ruined by SC. Just calculated the standings if all the races where SC/VSC are removed and I lead by 6½ minutes! SC takes all the skill out of this. Next year I am going to run an adjusted version so we can actually do this without the random luck of SC/VSC screwing it up!


Mate we all have to take safety car periods into consideration. That’s part of the game. Your calculations that you would be leading are completely worthless. Don’t bother with the adjusted version.

#24 thequadge

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Posted 29 September 2019 - 22:03

Mate we all have to take safety car periods into consideration. That’s part of the game. Your calculations that you would be leading are completely worthless. Don’t bother with the adjusted version.

 

Believe what you want but I had a good lead before two races with completely unpredictable safety cars! Last year Lewis won Singapore in 1:51:11 this year Vettel in 1:58:33 that's 7 mins 22s of safety car? Why this year and not last? It's completely random! All I'm trying to do is suggest a better way forward. You don't have to do the adjusted one if you don't want but I'm not being put off by boo boys (especially as the SC fiasco has favoured you so you have a vested interest). Before these two races I had a lead of 1:56 now I trail by 5:24 not by anyone being better but just by luck. If Marklar still runs this version that's fine you stick to it, but I'm gonna calculate a revised version so we can know who actually is any good at predicting this based on skill rather than blind luck



#25 GTA

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Posted 29 September 2019 - 23:44

Believe what you want but I had a good lead before two races with completely unpredictable safety cars! Last year Lewis won Singapore in 1:51:11 this year Vettel in 1:58:33 that's 7 mins 22s of safety car? Why this year and not last? It's completely random! All I'm trying to do is suggest a better way forward. You don't have to do the adjusted one if you don't want but I'm not being put off by boo boys (especially as the SC fiasco has favoured you so you have a vested interest). Before these two races I had a lead of 1:56 now I trail by 5:24 not by anyone being better but just by luck. If Marklar still runs this version that's fine you stick to it, but I'm gonna calculate a revised version so we can know who actually is any good at predicting this based on skill rather than blind luck

 

What Kev is saying is that we do take SC possibilities into consideration when we enter our times. For example the likelyhood of a SC is far greater in Singapore so people chose a higher time close to 2 hours , whereas for Monza where the SC features a lot less people went sub 1 hour 20. The SC is major component of of this competition, even drivers and teams have strategies that take into account the SC. 



#26 f1paul

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Posted 30 September 2019 - 09:29

It's just a game on the tinterweb.  :D



#27 M2000-5

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Posted 30 September 2019 - 09:57

We could have a new game next year, Guess the SC/VSC laps!

 

I am with GTA, we all try to take VSC/SC periods into account, I just fail miserably in that, but, hey, it's just a game.



#28 Kev00

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Posted 30 September 2019 - 10:03

Believe what you want but I had a good lead before two races with completely unpredictable safety cars! Last year Lewis won Singapore in 1:51:11 this year Vettel in 1:58:33 that's 7 mins 22s of safety car? Why this year and not last? It's completely random! All I'm trying to do is suggest a better way forward. You don't have to do the adjusted one if you don't want but I'm not being put off by boo boys (especially as the SC fiasco has favoured you so you have a vested interest). Before these two races I had a lead of 1:56 now I trail by 5:24 not by anyone being better but just by luck. If Marklar still runs this version that's fine you stick to it, but I'm gonna calculate a revised version so we can know who actually is any good at predicting this based on skill rather than blind luck


Haha I don’t have a ‘vested interest’ as I don’t really care. It’s just a game and tbh I don’t know how I did and I don’t even know what the winning time was. It’s a guessing game. Ever since I’ve watched F1 there has been safety cars. Why don’t you use you amazing math ‘skills’ to calculate the safety car and virtual safety car probability for each race and add that to your prediction? Or you can just create your own ‘skill’ game and I’ll stick to this ‘pure luck’ game.