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2021 Silly Season Trophy


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#1 SpaceHorseParty

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 05:47

As October ends and November begins, it is time to once again open entries for the Silly Season Trophy. It's probably the slowest game in this forum, as it can take over a year before a winner becomes clear (we're still waiting to determine the winner of last year's edition). But it is a fun one to play, as your assumptions about the future of the grid get slowly broken one by one.
 
Yesterday we saw a presentation on the technical changes that await us in 2021. Most drivers' contracts expire at the end of 2020. There is a lot of potential for 2021 to be a major shake-up year not just in terms of performance, but also in terms of who's driving for which team. Can you be the best at predicting that?
 
Previous winners:
2003: Brian O Flaherty
2004: Flying Panda
2005: lukywill, Viceroy, Makarias
2017: ANF
2018: Marklar
2018: TurnOffTheLights

Participation:
To participate, post a reply in this topic with the drivers you think will be on the grid in the first Formula One Grand Prix of 2021. Be sure to follow the rules and please make sure there is no confusion as to which driver you mean.

Rules and point scoring:
The game will continue with the same scoring system as last year: unpopular picks are rewarded more if they turn out to be true. Early indications are that this is a good method for breaking ties.
  • 2 drivers per team. In case more drivers are provided, player only scores points for the first two listed.
  • 1 team per driver. In case a driver is placed into multiple teams, player only scores points for the first one mentioned.
  • 5 points for correctly guessing driver/team. You can earn up to 2 bonus points for each successful pick depending on how many people guessed that particular driver/team combination. This is calculated as 2*(1–(a/b)), where a is the amount of guesses with that driver/team combination among other participants and b is the amount of your opponents (i.e. total guesses minus one).
  • 2 points for correctly guessing driver (wrong team). You can earn up to 1 bonus point for each successful pick depending on how many people guessed that driver would participate. This is calculated as 1–(a/b), where a is the amount of guesses with that driver/team combination among other participants and b is the amount of your opponents (i.e. total guesses minus one).
  • On top of the regular bonus points, you get double points if the driver you guessed was mentioned by nobody else.
  • 0 points if driver doesn't compete. An exception is if the driver was supposed to participate but did not due to a temporary injury or temporary ban (e.g. in 2017 you would get 5 points for guessing either Ericsson, Giovinazzi or Wehrlein in the Sauber and 2 points for guessing them in any other team, but no points for guessing van der Garde in any team in 2015).
  • If you list less than 13 teams and there are less than 13 teams on the grid in 2021, you score points for the teams you left out (5 points per team).
  • You can list an unknown driver (no given name) in a team. You will then score 5 points if a driver that was not mentioned by any other entry drives in the team you put him/her in. You will score no points if an unknown driver drives in a different team.
  • In the event of a tie, the player putting the most drivers in the correct teams is given preferenceIf there is still a tie, the player who submitted his guess first is given preference (in case a post is edited, I will look at the time it was last edited, not the original submission time).
  • In case of an event unspecified by rules, SpaceHorseParty makes the final decision.
Deadline:
December 1, 2019, 00:00 (UTC)

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#2 SpaceHorseParty

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 05:49

Mercedes	Lewis Hamilton		George Russell
Ferrari		Charles Leclerc		Daniel Ricciardo	
Red Bull	Max Verstappen		Alexander Albon
McLaren		Carlos Sainz		Lando Norris
Renault		Esteban Ocon		Guanyu Zhou
Alpha Tauri	unknown driver		unknown driver
Racing Point	Lance Stroll		Sergio Pérez
Alfa Romeo	Kimi Räikkönen		Mick Schumacher
Haas		Kevin Magnussen		Robert Shwartzman
Williams	Nicholas Latifi		unknown driver


#3 Marklar

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 12:44

Mercedes     Hamilton    Bottas
Ferrari      Leclerc     Ricciardo
Red Bull     Verstappen  Vettel
McLaren      Sainz       Norris
Renault      Ocon        Gasly
Alpha Tauri  Albon       Vips
Racing Point Perez       Stroll
Alfa         Raikkonen   Schumacher
Haas         Magnussen   Giovinazzi
Williams     Russell     Latifi

Edited by Marklar, 25 November 2019 - 13:41.


#4 DutchQuicksilver

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 17:09

Mercedes	Lewis Hamilton		Valtteri Bottas
Ferrari		Sebastian Vettel	Charles Leclerc	
Red Bull	Max Verstappen		Alexander Albon
McLaren		Carlos Sainz		Lando Norris
Renault		Daniel Ricciardo	Esteban Ocon
Alpha Tauri	Pierre Gasly		Juri Vips
Racing Point	Sergio Perez		Lance Stroll
Alfa Romeo	Kimi Raikkonen		Robert Shwartzman
Haas		Kevin Magnussen		Antonio Giovinazzi
Williams	George Russell		Nicholas Latifi

Edited by DutchQuicksilver, 28 November 2019 - 18:00.


#5 rodlamas

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Posted 03 November 2019 - 01:46

Mercedes    Lewis Hamilton        Valtteri Bottas
Ferrari        Charles Leclerc        Daniel Ricciardo 
Red Bull    Max Verstappen        Alexander Albon
McLaren        Carlos Sainz        Lando Norris
Renault        Esteban Ocon        Pierre Gasly
Alpha Tauri    Daniil Kvyat        Juri Vips
Racing Point    Sergio Perez        Lance Stroll
Alfa Romeo    Nico Hulkenberg        Mick Schumacher
Haas        Kevin Magnussen        Nyck Devries
Williams    George Russell        Nicholas Latifi



#6 SpaceHorseParty

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Posted 23 November 2019 - 19:53

One week to go! Get your predictions in!



#7 f1paul

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Posted 24 November 2019 - 20:56

Mercedes      Lewis Hamilton George Russell

Ferrari           Sebastian Vettel Charles Leclerc

Red Bull        Max Verstappen Alexander Albon

McLaren       Fernando Alonso Carlos Sainz

Renault         Daniel Ricciardo Esteban Ocon

Alpha Tauri   Pierre Gasly Daniil Kvyat

Racing Point Sergio Perez Lance Stroll

Alfa Romeo   Antonio Giovinazzi Kimi Raikkonen

Haas Kevin   Magnussen Unknown Driver

Williams        Nicholas Latifi Romain Grosjean



#8 Brawn BGP 001

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Posted 25 November 2019 - 23:34

Mercedes  L Hamilton V Bottas

Ferrari  C Leclerc D Ricciardo

Red Bull M Verstappen S Vettel

McLaren L Norris C Sainz

Renault E Ocon P Gasly

Alpha Tauri A Albon J Vips

Racing Point S Perez L Stroll

Alfa Romeo A Giovanazzi M Schumacher

Haas K Magnussen  D Kvyat

Williams G Russell Unknown


Edited by Brawn BGP 001, 25 November 2019 - 23:38.


#9 GTA

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Posted 27 November 2019 - 20:38

Mercedes - Lewis Hamilton - Valterri Bottas

Ferrari - Charles LeClerc - Nico Hulkenberg

Red Bull - Max Verstappen - Alexander Albon

Mclaren - Carlos Sainz - Lando Norris

Renault - Esteban Ocon - Daniel Ricciardo

Alpha Tauri - Pierre Gasly - Juri Vips

Racing Point - Lance Stroll - Sergio Perez

Alfa Romeo - Antonio Giovinazzi - Mick Schumacher

Haas - Kevin Magnussen - Marcus Armstrong

Williams - George Russell - Nicholas Latifi



#10 scheivlak

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Posted 28 November 2019 - 12:17

Mercedes        Lewis Hamilton           George Russell       
Ferrari             Charles Leclerc           Lando Norris
Red Bull          Max Verstappen          Alexander Albon

McLaren         Carlos Sainz                Valtteri Bottas
Renault           Esteban Ocon             Daniel Ricciardo
Alpha Tauri     Daniil Kvyat                 Pierre Gasly
Racing Point   Sergio Perez               Lance Stroll
Alfa Romeo    Antonio Giovanizzi       Mick Schumacher
Haas               Kevin Magnussen       Colton Herta
Williams          Nicholas Latifi             Guanyu Zhou



#11 Costaz

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Posted 28 November 2019 - 13:35

Mercedes    Lewis Hamilton        Valteri Bottas
Ferrari        Charles Leclerc        Esteban Ocon
Red Bull    Max Verstappen        Alexander Albon
McLaren        Carlos Sainz        Lando Norris
Renault        Daniel Ricciardo    Romain Grosjean
Alpha Tauri    Sebastian Vettel      unknown driver
Racing Point    Sergio Pérez        George Russell

Alfa Romeo    Lance Stroll        unknown driver
Haas        Kevin Magnussen        unknown driver
Williams    Nicholas Latifi        unknown driver


Edited by Costaz, 28 November 2019 - 13:47.


#12 Starchild

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Posted 28 November 2019 - 13:38

Mercedes      Lewis Hamilton Valterri Bottas

Ferrari           Sebastian Vettel Charles Leclerc

Red Bull        Max Verstappen Alexander Albon

McLaren       Lando Norris Carlos Sainz

Renault         Daniel Ricciardo Esteban Ocon

Alpha Tauri   Pierre Gasly Juri Vips

Racing Point Sergio Perez Lance Stroll

Alfa Romeo   Antonio Giovinazzi Robert Shwartzman

Haas Kevin   Kevin Magnussen Romain Grosjean

Williams        Nicholas Latifi George Russell



#13 Grayson

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Posted 29 November 2019 - 17:26

Mercedes - Hamilton Bottas

Ferrari - Leclerc Vettel

Red Bull - Verstappen Albon

Renault - Ocon Ricciardo

McLaren - Sainz Norris

Racing Point - Stroll Perez

Alpha Tauri - Unknown Unknown

Alfa Romeo - Giovinazzi Raikkonen

Williams - Latifi Russell

Haas - Magnussen Grosjean

 

I realise how boring my answer is... But any changes I make to the lineup just seem to be for the sake of change!


Edited by Grayson, 29 November 2019 - 17:27.


#14 SpaceHorseParty

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Posted 30 November 2019 - 07:01

Last day for submitting your predictions!



#15 Makarias

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Posted 30 November 2019 - 11:20

Mercedes       Lewis Hamilton    George Russell
Ferrari        Charles Leclerc   Daniel Ricciardo
Red Bull       Max Verstappen    Alex Albon
McLaren        Carlos Sainz Jr   Lando Norris
Renault        Esteban Ocon      Valtteri Bottas
Racing Point   Lance Stroll      Sergio Perez
Alfa Romeo     Nico Hülkenberg   Mick Schumacher
Alpha Tauri    Pierre Gasly      Jüri Vips
Haas           Kevin Magnussen   Artem Markelov
Williams       Nicholas Latifi   Romain Grosjean


#16 KWSN - DSM

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Posted 30 November 2019 - 12:07

Mercedes	Lewis Hamilton		George Russell
Ferrari		Charles Leclerc		Sebastian Vettel	
Red Bull	Max Verstappen		Pierre Gasly
McLaren		Carlos Sainz		Lando Norris
Renault		Esteban Ocon		Daniel Ricciardo
Alpha Tauri	Juri Vips		Nobuharu Matsushita
Racing Point	Lance Stroll		Sergio Pérez
Alfa Romeo	Antonio Giovanizzi	Mick Schumacher
Haas		Kevin Magnussen		Luca Ghiotto
Williams	Nicholas Latifi		Bottas

:cool:



#17 noikeee

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Posted 30 November 2019 - 17:05

Mercedes	Max Verstappen		Valtteri Bottas
Ferrari		Lewis Hamilton		Charles Leclerc
Red Bull	Sebastian Vettel	Alexander Albon
McLaren		Carlos Sainz		Lando Norris
Renault		Esteban Ocon		Daniel Ricciardo
Alpha Tauri	Pierre Gasly		Juri Vips
Racing Point	Lance Stroll		Sergio Pérez
Alfa Romeo	Antonio Giovinazzi	Robert Shwartzman
Haas		Kevin Magnussen		Romain Grosjean
Williams	Nicholas Latifi		George Russell


#18 M2000-5

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Posted 30 November 2019 - 20:33

Mercedes Hamilton Bottas

Ferrari Leclerc Ricciardo 

Red Bull Verstappen Vettel

McLaren Sainz Norris

Renault Gasly Ocon

Alpha Tauri Albon unknown

Racing Point Stroll Perez

Alfa Romeo Raikkonen Schumacher

Haas Magnussen Giovinazzi

Williams Latifi Russell



#19 SpaceHorseParty

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Posted 01 December 2019 - 10:50

Thank you! The time for submitting your predictions is over.



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#20 SpaceHorseParty

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Posted 31 May 2020 - 16:10

I've finally found the time to summarize the submissions for this (and the interim results will be published shortly).
 
First, let's look at some statistics:

Drivers

15: Hamilton, Leclerc, Magnussen, Ocon, Pérez, Ricciardo, Russell, Sainz, Stroll, Verstappen
14: Albon, Latifi, Norris
13: Bottas
12: Gasly, Giovinazzi, unknown driver
10: Vettel
9: Schumacher, Vips
6: Grosjean, Räikkönen
4: Kvyat, Shwartzman
2: Hülkenberg, Zhou
1: Alonso, Armstrong, Ghiotto, Herta, Markelov, Matsushita, de Vries

 
The players expected some degree of stability in 2021, with 10 out of 20 drivers on the 2020 grid expected to continue in 2021. Three more drivers were only left out by one player, Bottas was left out by two (for the second year in a row), and th former GP2 teammates Gasly and Giovinazzi were left out by three. With 12 guesses, they are as popular as the unknown driver (although these 12 guesses are spread out to just six players).
 
The least likely 2020 drivers to line up the 2021 grid (according to the players of this game) are Kvyat (four picks), Grosjean, and Räikkönen (six picks each). While Räikkönen is only expected to stay at Alfa Romeo, Brawn BGP 001's guess is that Kvyat might go to Haas, while Grosjean is linked to Renault and Williams, in addition to his current team.
 
Looking at potential return drivers, we have Hülkenberg with two picks: Ferrari for GTA, and Alfa Romeo for rodlamas. There's also f1paul who picked Alonso for McLaren: while we already know this will not happen, if he does join Renault, f1paul will still get a nice haul of points.

The likeliest rookies are Mick Schumacher and Jüri Vips with nine picks each. No crazy guesses regarding their potential teams: Schumacher is universally expected to join Alfa Romeo, ditto Vips with AlphaTauri.
 
We have seven unique picks this year: Fernando Alonso (by f1paul, as already mentioned), Marcus Armstrong (by GTA), Luca Ghiotto (by KWSN - DSM), Colton Herta (by scheivlak), Artem Markelov (by Makarias), Nobuharu Matsushita (by KWSN - DSM), and Nyck de Vries (by rodlamas). Should any of them appear on the 2021 grid, even in other teams, they will bring a lot of valuable points – they would bring 6 points for driving in a different team, which is more than a popular driver/team combo, like Giovinazzi at Sauber, would bring.
 
A total of 12 unknown picks were made: six for AlphaTauri, three for Williams, two for Haas and one for Alfa Romeo. This time, SpaceHorseParty was the most active user of this option, as he used three such picks – including both AlphaTauri seats and one Williams seat.
 
Teams

Mercedes: Hamilton (14), Bottas (10), Russell (5), Verstappen (1)
Ferrari: Leclerc (15), Ricciardo (6), Vettel (5), Hamilton, Hülkenberg, Norris, Ocon (1)
Red Bull: Verstappen (14), Albon (11), Vettel (4), Gasly (1)
McLaren: Sainz (15), Norris (13), Alonso, Bottas (1)
Renault: Ocon (14), Ricciardo (9), Gasly (4), Bottas, Grosjean, Zhou (1)
AlphaTauri: Vips (9), Gasly (7), unknown driver* (6), Albon, Kvyat (3), Matsushita, Vettel (1)
Racing Point: Pérez (15), Stroll (14), Russell (1)
Alfa Romeo: Giovinazzi, Schumacher (9), Räikkönen (6), Shwartzman (3), Hülkenberg, Stroll, unknown driver (1)
Haas: Magnussen (15), Giovinazzi, Grosjean (3), unknown driver (2), Armstrong, Ghiotto, Herta, Kvyat, Markelov, Shwartzman, de Vries (1)
Williams: Latifi (14), Russell (9), unknown driver (3), Grosjean (2), Bottas, Zhou (1)

 
*two players picked two unknown drivers for AlphaTauri; all are counted

There are four things the players universally agreed on: Charles Leclerc will stay at Ferrari, Kevin Magnussen will stay at Haas, Sergio Pérez will stay at Racing Point, and Carlos Sainz will stay at McLaren. Interestingly, one of those things has already proven to be false. Mick Schumacher to Alfa Romeo and Jüri Vips to AlphaTauri (each picked by nine) are the most popular moves.
 
All players predict the current ten teams to line up the 2021 grid, with no new teams appearing. If the guesses would have been submitted two months ago or even now, I suspect this would not have been the case.
 
Average pick

Mercedes	Lewis Hamilton		Valtteri Bottas
Ferrari		Charles Leclerc		Sebastian Vettel
Red Bull	Max Verstappen		Alexander Albon
McLaren		Carlos Sainz		Lando Norris
Renault		Esteban Ocon		Daniel Ricciardo
AlphaTauri	Jüri Vips		Pierre Gasly
Racing Point	Sergio Pérez		Lance Stroll
Alfa Romeo	Antonio Giovinazzi	Mick Schumacher
Haas		Kevin Magnussen		Romain Grosjean
Williams	Nicholas Latifi		George Russell

 
I calculated the results if the average pick comes true:
 

Place Name             Points Exact Subm
      AVERAGE PICK     125.86  20       
  1   Starchild        120.00  19     9 
  2   GTA              112.71  18     6 
  3   DutchQuicksilver 109.64  17    10 
  4   noikeee          109.64  16    14 
  5   Grayson          108.00  17    11 
  6   Makarias         104.07  15    12 
  7   KWSN - DSM       102.21  15    13 
  8   Marklar          100.14  14     4 
  9   rodlamas          99.07  15     2 
 10   Brawn BGP 001     98.64  14     5 
 11   scheivlak         96.21  14     7 
 12   f1paul            95.21  14     3 
 13   M2000-5           94.29  13    15 
 14   Costaz            83.86  11     8 
 15   SpaceHorseParty   81.43  12     1 

While we already know the average pick will not come true, this still works as a rough guide to which players will benefit from a stable grid in 2021. If teams opt for more or less the same drivers as they did in 2020, expect Starchild, GTA, and Dutchquicksilver to do well.

 
The first interim results will be published in the next few days. There are already quite a few deals to catch up, but there are still plenty of seats left to be filled, so it should be interesting to watch how the game develops

For those of you disappointed to see this topic when the submissions are closed, have no fear! There's only five months to go until the submissions are open for the 2022 edition.