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2021 Formula 1 Silly Season


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#51 Ali623

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Posted 13 November 2019 - 21:10

Giovinazzi is an interesting case and could turn out to be more crucial for the driver market than we think.

Assuming the 2nd Alfa is reserved to one of the new Ferrari rookies the 1st seat is between him, Kimi and outsiders (Hulk for example, Vasseur rates him). since Vasseur wanted him out this year he needs a massive improvement next year.

But even if he gets dropped, he ticks off the Haas requirement of being relatively experienced, and the team has Ferrari ties.

Now let's go even further: What if Giovinazzi does improve massively? He's Italian and there were indications that Ferrari wants a #1-#2 policy again. If (and big if) he does manage to improve much I wouldnt rule out this scenario. In 2004 Felipe Massa didnt look like a future Ferrari driver either.

 

I was actually thinking this the other day, Giovinazzi has been quietly improving (at least in qualifying, matching and beating Kimi) since the summer break. Be interesting to see how he does next year, a genuine improvement, beats Raikkonen, Vettel leaves at the end of 2020? Italian Ferrari driver alongside Charles?



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#52 Anuity

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Posted 13 November 2019 - 23:36

It’s really amazing how some people keep on coming with fantasy options for Hulkenberg.
First he was going to replace Seb at Ferrari, then he was going to end up at Red Bull and now some are dreaming of him in Alfa.
This is not going to happen. None of these teams needs him, and that’s precisely why he is not there.
Why would Alfa exchange a popular, experienced, race winning driver for some mediocre driver like Hulk. It’s pure fantasy world, like him ending up in Red Bull.
He is done and it’s very unlikely he is back in 2021.
Kimi in the other hand I can totally see keep on going in 2021, I think he would like to test new regulations and it’s a hobby for him anyways.
Unless he is totally outperformed by Antonio next year (which could happen) I see him staying for one more year.

#53 theflyingwheel

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 01:07

It’s really amazing how some people keep on coming with fantasy options for Hulkenberg.
First he was going to replace Seb at Ferrari, then he was going to end up at Red Bull and now some are dreaming of him in Alfa.
This is not going to happen. None of these teams needs him, and that’s precisely why he is not there.
Why would Alfa exchange a popular, experienced, race winning driver for some mediocre driver like Hulk. It’s pure fantasy world, like him ending up in Red Bull.
He is done and it’s very unlikely he is back in 2021.
Kimi in the other hand I can totally see keep on going in 2021, I think he would like to test new regulations and it’s a hobby for him anyways.
Unless he is totally outperformed by Antonio next year (which could happen) I see him staying for one more year.


I would call Hulk mediocre, yes he hasn’t done anything espectacular and has been outshined by Ricciardo and Perez but he has done a pole in a Williams and is a reliable and safe pair of hands that can deliver solid points for the team which is something we can’t say for most drivers, he won LeMans in a more decorate manner than Alonso (not saying he is better than Alonso) and it’s difficult to to something espectacular in this era of F1 being outside the top 3 teams, having said that, neither do I saw him at Ferrari or RB nor Mercedes but in my very personal opinion I would keep him over the likes of Kvyat, Gasly, Magnussen, Kubica, Stroll or Grosjean.

#54 Beri

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 04:56

Little birdies are telling that Williams might actually poach the ROK group to come up with money to pay for a senior driver. Latifi didn't seem that impressive. No word on which senior driver. But God, I hope Williams doesn't hire Latifi.

#55 alainsfoot

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 06:49

i think that 2020 will be crucial for vett.

if he has a car to his liking and he can match leclerc, he might stick around at ferrari.

even in this case, would ferrari still want to pay huge money for him if he doesnt clearly outshine leclerc?

i believe that if he doesnt obviously get the better of leclerc next year he will retire from f1.

he has achieved so much already and i cant see him going to a new team to have his primacy challenged again ie.ricciardo/leclerc.

i doubt he could match hamilton or verstappen.

2020 is make or break for vettel.



#56 speedx

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 06:52

Vasseur wanted Hulk instead of Gio, but Ferrari said no. Hulk is at the moment faster driver than Kimi and if Vasseur has something to tell, Hulk will replace Kimi or drive with Kimi in 2021 (If Alfa stops sponsoring Sauber). But who knows, perhaps Hulk will end at Ferrari at last in 2021😉

#57 Mohican

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 08:17

Little birdies are telling that Williams might actually poach the ROK group to come up with money to pay for a senior driver. Latifi didn't seem that impressive. No word on which senior driver. But God, I hope Williams doesn't hire Latifi.

 

If Williams suddenly did come into some more money, they would be very foolish to spend it on a "senior" driver rather than on the car.



#58 Mohican

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 08:24

Giovinazzi is an interesting case and could turn out to be more crucial for the driver market than we think.

Assuming the 2nd Alfa is reserved to one of the new Ferrari rookies the 1st seat is between him, Kimi and outsiders (Hulk for example, Vasseur rates him). since Vasseur wanted him out this year he needs a massive improvement next year.

But even if he gets dropped, he ticks off the Haas requirement of being relatively experienced, and the team has Ferrari ties.

Now let's go even further: What if Giovinazzi does improve massively? He's Italian and there were indications that Ferrari wants a #1-#2 policy again. If (and big if) he does manage to improve much I wouldnt rule out this scenario. In 2004 Felipe Massa didnt look like a future Ferrari driver either.

 

One seat is for FCA to nominate, and they can only nominate a Ferrari-contracted driver.

 

So, last year it was Ericsson and Leclerc (FCA nominated), and this year it is Raikkonen and Giovinazzi (FCA nominated). Meaning that there is no reserved seat for a Ferrari junior, only for an FCA nominee - read the press release over Giovinazzi for next year, it was Mike Manley (CEO of FCA) who was quoted, nobody from Ferrari. And Raikkonen is completely disengaged from Ferrari nowadays.



#59 player1s

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 08:44

i think that 2020 will be crucial for vett.

if he has a car to his liking and he can match leclerc, he might stick around at ferrari.

even in this case, would ferrari still want to pay huge money for him if he doesnt clearly outshine leclerc?

i believe that if he doesnt obviously get the better of leclerc next year he will retire from f1.

he has achieved so much already and i cant see him going to a new team to have his primacy challenged again ie.ricciardo/leclerc.

i doubt he could match hamilton or verstappen.

2020 is make or break for vettel.

 

Its Ferrari. Seeing how long they stuck with the likes of Massa and Raikonen I cannot see them forcing Vettel out just yet. Only reason I can see him leave in 2021 is him finding employment somewhere else (RBR or Mercedes) or retirement.



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#60 loki

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 08:56

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#61 sopa

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 09:29

Why would Alfa exchange a popular, experienced, race winning driver for some mediocre driver like Hulk. 

 

Hulk is quite a bit younger than Kimi and his performance is as good as Kimi's if not better. Preferring Hulk makes sense in all aspects, except marketing...



#62 Beri

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 09:46

Hulkenberg is on the papers to drive at Ed Carpenter Racing in the IndyCar Series in 2020. I reckon he will love it in Murica, never to be bothered by F1 anymore.



#63 Mohican

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 10:40

Daimler AG has announced plans to slash €1.4bn in personnel costs, as the German carmaker warned that the shift to electric vehicles would hit profits over the next two years.“The expenditure needed to achieve the CO2 targets require comprehensive measures to increase efficiency in all areas of our company. This also includes streamlining our processes and structures,” said chief executive Ola Kallenius, who took the reins at Daimler in May. “To remain successful in the future, we must therefore act now and significantly increase our financial strength.”

 

https://on.ft.com/2pjjUwL

 

Do people still seriously doubt that Mercedes may not be in F1 by 2021 ? Or think that it is a coincidence that Toto is not in Brazil ?



#64 MikeV1987

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 10:48

Can’t see Merc leaving tbh, they got too much invested to just walk away from owning a team. Who’s going to buy such a massive operation anyway?

#65 Mohican

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 10:51

Can’t see Merc leaving tbh, they got too much invested to just walk away from owning a team. Who’s going to buy such a massive operation anyway?

 

You cannot ? Why not ?

The F1 operation is small change compared to what's on the table elsewhere; this is what the specialised media just cannot understand.

Of course Mercedes have already looked into who could buy it (dont forget that Wolff owns 30%) and to what alternative use within Daimler could they put the factory.



#66 Mohican

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 10:54

The engine operation is 100% Mercedes, and could presumably be integrated into AMG full time. Factory can surely be used for other things than making F1 engines.

 

If all this is true for Daimler, it must be true for Renault and Honda too. Honda being quite a small car company, as well.



#67 Anja

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 10:58

Can’t see Merc leaving tbh, they got too much invested to just walk away from owning a team. Who’s going to buy such a massive operation anyway?

 

After 6 double championships in a row (and it very well could be 7 after 2020) winning yet another season isn't adding much to the overall marketing effect. I could see them deciding that there's just not much to gain from further involvement. The investment already paid off.


Edited by Anja, 14 November 2019 - 11:04.


#68 SenorSjon

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 10:58

Little birdies are telling that Williams might actually poach the ROK group to come up with money to pay for a senior driver. Latifi didn't seem that impressive. No word on which senior driver. But God, I hope Williams doesn't hire Latifi.

 

Why would they pay someone to get last? First improve the dud of a car. Other teams can do it with less cash.



#69 TomNokoe

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 10:59

Kimi in the other hand I can totally see keep on going in 2021, I think he would like to test new regulations and it’s a hobby for him anyways.

I know I said earlier that I think Kimi is going to retire, but I agree with this general sentiment.

 

In some ways, retiring before the start of new regulations makes sense because you come to a "natural" end, but the 2021 regulations are so revolutionary, surely most of the drivers are going to want to at least try them? This is why I can't get my head around the idea of Vettel retiring.

 

2021 is a fresh start for everybody.



#70 sopa

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 12:57

Can’t see Merc leaving tbh, they got too much invested to just walk away from owning a team. Who’s going to buy such a massive operation anyway?

 

These questions could be asked about Renault, Honda, BMW and Toyota a decade ago too. But if you need to cut costs, you cut the most wasteful expenditures. Doesn't matter, how much you invested beforehand. It's the matter of going forward with new strategy.

 

If you need to significantly cut running costs, cutting off "luxury operations" - which motorsport is - is one of the first things to do. When the emissions scandal hit VW Group a few years ago, they quickly left WRC and WEC despite being very successful there.



#71 Zilbert

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 13:02

Hulk is quite a bit younger than Kimi and his performance is as good as Kimi's if not better. Preferring Hulk makes sense in all aspects, except marketing...

I don't think their age difference matters that much in this case, unless someone thinks it translates directly into performance. I actually think Kimi would be much more invested in spending next two or three years in the team than Hulk would.



#72 Mohican

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 13:33

Sauber got their dream driver back when Raikkonen rejoined. No way are they looking at Hulk to replace him.

#73 Mohican

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 13:34

Hulkenberg has also been at Sauber before; perhaps not the happiest driver relationship they have had.

#74 pitlanepalpatine

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 13:43

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#75 Anderis

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 13:50

Can’t see Merc leaving tbh, they got too much invested to just walk away from owning a team. Who’s going to buy such a massive operation anyway?

As if Toyota, Honda and BMW hadn't invested much before they left in 2008/2009. Toyota was supposed to have a bigger budget then than Mercedes have now.



#76 sopa

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 13:58

I like, how the main topic of 2021 silly season here is about manufacturers pulling out.  :p  We are living in interesting times. I think off the track the 2020 season could turn out to be as interesting as 2009 was - with crazy silly season, uncertainty about the future of the sport and political battles behind the scenes.


Edited by sopa, 14 November 2019 - 13:58.


#77 Anderis

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 14:08

I think off the track the 2020 season could turn out to be as interesting as 2009 was - with crazy silly season, uncertainty about the future of the sport and political battles behind the scenes.

For it to be as interesting, there needs to be an equivalent of Schumacher coming back- Alonso coming back? :p  I still think Schumacher was way more surprising. Maybe Rosberg? But then again Rosberg is nowhere near as popular as Schumacher was.

 

Some new teams are needed too. There perhaps need to be some rumours about Stefan wanting to join too. Perhaps he will claim to have bought out a car from one of those manufacturers who will pull out. :p

 

But I'm afraid 2009-->2010 silly season can't be matched. Teams will likely want to stick to known-quality drivers to have a yardstick for 2021 rule change. 2008-->2009 silly season was extremely uneventful, 18 out of 20 drivers stayed where they had been before.


Edited by Anderis, 14 November 2019 - 14:09.


#78 Laster

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 16:02

Hulkenberg has also been at Sauber before; perhaps not the happiest driver relationship they have had.

That’s not what’s been reported, I’ve only seen people saying they rate him within Hinwil, the only problem was the financial issues bothering the team in 2013 and which led to those dire few years they had.

#79 Ali623

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 16:10

For it to be as interesting, there needs to be an equivalent of Schumacher coming back- Alonso coming back? :p I still think Schumacher was way more surprising. Maybe Rosberg? But then again Rosberg is nowhere near as popular as Schumacher was.

Some new teams are needed too. There perhaps need to be some rumours about Stefan wanting to join too. Perhaps he will claim to have bought out a car from one of those manufacturers who will pull out. :p

But I'm afraid 2009-->2010 silly season can't be matched. Teams will likely want to stick to known-quality drivers to have a yardstick for 2021 rule change. 2008-->2009 silly season was extremely uneventful, 18 out of 20 drivers stayed where they had been before.


I mean it only takes one big thing to happen of kick off a chain-reaction across the field (like last year with Ricciardo). Such as Vettel retiring for example

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#80 loki

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 17:40

You cannot ? Why not ?

The hit to the books by winding up what is potentially a billion dollar operation outweighs the benefit of short term cost savings.  Between the budget cap and prize money change they’ll be able to run an operation that not only pays for itself but provides a good value as a worldwide marketing platform.   I could see them selling or partnering with someone but to just walk away at this point is going to cost more short term than it’s worth.



#81 AustinF1

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 19:14

The engine operation is 100% Mercedes, and could presumably be integrated into AMG full time. Factory can surely be used for other things than making F1 engines.

 

If all this is true for Daimler, it must be true for Renault and Honda too. Honda being quite a small car company, as well.

Agree with the gist of your post, but Honda isn't small. Bigger than Renault & FCA iirc.



#82 AustinF1

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 19:15

After 6 double championships in a row (and it very well could be 7 after 2020) winning yet another season isn't adding much to the overall marketing effect. I could see them deciding that there's just not much to gain from further involvement. The investment already paid off.

Exactly.



#83 pitlanepalpatine

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 19:29

Hulkenberg has also been at Sauber before; perhaps not the happiest driver relationship they have had.

 

Why? He brought in a huge points haul in comparison to Gutierrez and I wouldn't fault him for heading back to force india considering the season after spawned the Sauber driver musical seat fiasco.



#84 Marklar

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 19:56

Vettel said to Sky Germany that he cant say yet if he will race in 2021 because he doesnt have a contract yet, but he expects to.

Sounded more confident than I thought.

#85 HeadFirst

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 20:50

Vettel said to Sky Germany that he cant say yet if he will race in 2021 because he doesnt have a contract yet, but he expects to.

Sounded more confident than I thought.

 

A back on form Vettel would be an asset to almost any team. When the dust settles after 2020, there will be room for him in 1 of the top 4 teams.



#86 Heyli

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 07:20

A back on form Vettel would be an asset to almost any team. When the dust settles after 2020, there will be room for him in 1 of the top 4 teams.

There will be 4 top teams? :o



#87 Beri

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 09:25

Williams is the 4th top team by then.

#88 Henri Greuter

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 09:31

Williams is the 4th top team by then.



My money on who will be the 4th of the big 4 is on either Renault or McLaren-Mercedes. And with more confidence into the second of the two mentioned. Assuming of course that the current Top 3 doesn't fall away.

Edited by Henri Greuter, 15 November 2019 - 09:31.


#89 Marklar

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 09:46

Apparently Penske wants to buy the Mercedes team and there were already talks (that's a proper Silly Seasom rumour lol).

before somebody is mentioning it, what Kallenius said yesterday about Mercedes committing to F1 can be seen as to 2020 and beyond that for engines. Apparently the team is ("according to reliable sources") for sale, but Mercedes will definitely continue to supply engines.

https://f1-insider.c...r-nure-vorerst/

Edited by Marklar, 15 November 2019 - 10:25.


#90 PayasYouRace

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 09:49

I'd be happy with Penske-Mercedes in F1, especially as Brackley would be a good start. It would be a good new identity for a team that has had so many.

 

Quick, someone photoshop a 2021 F1 car with Penske Indycar liveries.



#91 Marklar

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 09:52

Aye, much take this over Mazepin GP.

#92 sopa

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 09:53

It looks like Penske is taking over the world. First the whole IndyCar, and then Mercedes GP too.



#93 Anja

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 09:57

I'm no fan of Penske as a team but I'd welcome them with open arms if the alternative is Mazepin or some other BS.



#94 taran

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 09:59

I personally liked the other nugget in that article....: that Mercedes has offered to supply Red Bull with engines from 2021 onwards....



#95 Marklar

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 10:03

I personally liked the other nugget in that article....: that Mercedes has offered to supply Red Bull with engines from 2021 onwards....

I'd reckon that's in case Honda pulls out, since Marko has said that there is no other option then and that they would pull out too.

Though if Mercedes is really only supplying engines they could probably afford to supply half of the grid, would even increase the marketing value while right now supplying other teams can cause the opposite.

It's a win-win tbh, especially if a big brand like Penske joins the sport too.

Edited by Marklar, 15 November 2019 - 10:10.


#96 Aaaarrgghh

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 10:10

I would welcome Penske back with open arms, but I would like to see Mercedes actually be beaten in a straight fight at least one time during the turbo era before they leave.


Edited by Aaaarrgghh, 15 November 2019 - 10:11.


#97 r4mses

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 10:21

Just yesterday I've seen what looked like a solid researched - or well made up - roundup of F1 teams' stats including budgets and incomes (cannot find the source right now). Among other things, it stated Daimler's input into Mercedes F1 at $80m p.a. (of $430m total buget if I recall correctly) while Renault burns $90m. If that's the case, imo it's a no-brainer to stay iinF1 for Daimler.


Edited by r4mses, 15 November 2019 - 10:23.


#98 noikeee

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 10:33

Ok now the silly season has properly gotten silly. Did Roger Penske find a pile of gold overnight or what? Wtf?

#99 taran

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 10:39

Ok now the silly season has properly gotten silly. Did Roger Penske find a pile of gold overnight or what? Wtf?

 

Depends on how the deal is structured. Daimler might just want to off-load the team from its books for P.R. reasons, especially since they are going to sack thousands of workers. Makes it awkward to pay Hamilton $60 million at the same time....

 

They could offer the team for $1 and guaranteed sponsorship for the next 3 years to Penske. That way, Penske is responsible for the employees etc.



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#100 Clatter

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 10:42

I'd reckon that's in case Honda pulls out, since Marko has said that there is no other option then and that they would pull out too.

Though if Mercedes is really only supplying engines they could probably afford to supply half of the grid, would even increase the marketing value while right now supplying other teams can cause the opposite.

It's a win-win tbh, especially if a big brand like Penske joins the sport too.

If Merc pull out then it won't matter who has their engines as they won't be a competitor.