The standings after Brazil:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) mark f1 1759 71 2) Grayson 1740 50 3) Kev00 1738 73 4) DutchQuicksilver 1728 71 5) Bleu 1719 50 6) M2000-5 1706 60 7) GTA 1703 75 8) sladealonso 1702 75 9) thegforcemaybewithyou1697 72 10) scheivlak 1694 73 11) wattoroos 1693 73 12) Makarias 1690 65 13) Barty 1685 48 14) fisichella_2001 1680 50 15) KWSN-DSM 1658 67 16) Marklar 1657 73 17) noikeee 1643 73 18) Brawn BGP 001 1637 62 19) Costaz 1622 68 20) f1paul 1599 73 21) thequadge 1594 51 22) SpaceHorseParty 1569 67 23) Anderis 1512 7348 to 75 points scored this round. New leader is mark f1.
The entries
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Albo 454,6 182,6 23 Sain 210,3 53,1 21 Kvya 167,0 67,3 22 Norr 151,1 36,6 20 Bott 144,8 115,1 23 Hami 118,0 101,1 23 Pere 117,8 56,8 13 Vers 102,8 85,7 11 Stro 102,5 51,2 13 Lecl 86,6 70,8 2 Kubi 85,2 14,3 10 Räik 75,7 45,7 5 Vett 67,4 59,7 0 Gasl 59,9 43,3 0 Ricc 58,1 36,0 0 Hülk 47,1 31,1 0 Giov 41,6 16,9 2 Magn 35,7 20,8 0 Gros 13,1 8,2 0Lewis Hamilton becomes the third 100% surprise of the season! Max Verstappen becomes the ninth driver to beat his expectation mark this season!
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2019 this is 23.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Verstappen Gasly Sainz Räikkönen Giovinazzi Marklar 299 f1paul 214 Costaz 178 Anderis 93 Anderis 82 Makarias 292 wattoroos 179 * Potential 120 GTA 81 SpaceHorseParty 71 Anderis 290 Bleu 176 SpaceHorseParty 111 KWSN-DSM 81 scheivlak 48 scheivlak 288 Brawn BGP 001 172 * Forecast 100 Marklar 74 Marklar 47 f1paul 286 DutchQuicksilver171 * Current 95 wattoroos 71 f1paul 45 * Potential 282 sladealonso 165 Brawn BGP 001 88 Barty 70 fisichella_2001 40 sladealonso 275 thegforcemaybewi165 wattoroos 49 Kev00 70 KWSN-DSM 40 Kev00 270 Anderis 163 fisichella_2001 44 scheivlak 69 wattoroos 40 * Forecast 270 noikeee 160 thegforcemaybewi 44 * Potential 68 * Potential 39 wattoroos 268 thequadge 159 DutchQuicksilver 43 SpaceHorseParty 57 Costaz 39 GTA 267 Kev00 158 sladealonso 43 fisichella_2001 55 noikeee 35 thegforcemaybewi266 M2000-5 158 f1paul 41 noikeee 55 Kev00 34 noikeee 265 Makarias 153 Barty 40 DutchQuicksilver 54 Bleu 32 mark f1 260 Barty 150 Grayson 40 f1paul 54 thegforcemaybewi 30 * Current 257 Grayson 150 scheivlak 38 Grayson 52 Grayson 28 DutchQuicksilver253 KWSN-DSM 150 Makarias 37 Bleu 46 sladealonso 26 KWSN-DSM 249 mark f1 150 noikeee 36 * Forecast 45 M2000-5 23 M2000-5 248 Marklar 148 Bleu 35 sladealonso 45 GTA 22 thequadge 243 GTA 140 Marklar 34 Brawn BGP 001 43 Barty 20 Brawn BGP 001 234 scheivlak 134 M2000-5 30 Costaz 43 DutchQuicksilver 19 fisichella_2001 230 fisichella_2001 123 mark f1 30 * Current 43 Makarias 19 Bleu 226 SpaceHorseParty 119 Kev00 27 thequadge 41 * Forecast 15 Grayson 200 * Potential 118 KWSN-DSM 18 mark f1 40 Brawn BGP 001 14 SpaceHorseParty 189 Costaz 112 GTA 16 thegforcemaybewi 40 * Current 14 Barty 180 * Forecast 98 Anderis 10 M2000-5 39 mark f1 12 Costaz 170 * Current 93 thequadge 7 Makarias 33 thequadge 8Räikkönen and Giovinazzi beat their first guesses of the season. About time!
Guesses on P6-P10:
Ricciardo Hamilton Norris Perez Kvyat thequadge 149 * Potential 407 Costaz 122 KWSN-DSM 80 * Potential 60 SpaceHorseParty 128 * Forecast 401 SpaceHorseParty 83 Makarias 75 Costaz 51 Anderis 118 * Current 382 * Potential 70 * Potential 71 * Forecast 37 Makarias 108 mark f1 377 Brawn BGP 001 62 DutchQuicksilver 61 * Current 35 scheivlak 104 M2000-5 358 * Forecast 47 fisichella_2001 53 M2000-5 32 Barty 100 Bleu 356 * Current 45 Bleu 52 noikeee 32 Brawn BGP 001 100 Makarias 356 Barty 40 GTA 51 Barty 30 mark f1 100 Kev00 353 wattoroos 36 Grayson 50 scheivlak 28 fisichella_2001 98 Grayson 350 f1paul 34 mark f1 50 Kev00 27 M2000-5 98 thequadge 345 Kev00 33 thegforcemaybewi 50 Grayson 25 Grayson 92 GTA 340 scheivlak 31 * Forecast 48 mark f1 25 Kev00 92 sladealonso 336 sladealonso 30 sladealonso 47 SpaceHorseParty 25 Bleu 89 DutchQuicksilver334 Grayson 25 * Current 46 Bleu 23 KWSN-DSM 85 fisichella_2001 329 thegforcemaybewi 25 wattoroos 40 DutchQuicksilver 23 thegforcemaybewi 85 Barty 326 noikeee 24 Costaz 36 Anderis 20 Costaz 80 wattoroos 326 fisichella_2001 21 Marklar 35 KWSN-DSM 20 wattoroos 80 thegforcemaybewi317 Makarias 20 scheivlak 35 Marklar 20 * Potential 79 noikeee 316 Bleu 19 Anderis 30 thegforcemaybewi 20 f1paul 78 scheivlak 315 Marklar 19 Kev00 26 f1paul 14 DutchQuicksilver 76 KWSN-DSM 309 DutchQuicksilver 16 noikeee 23 fisichella_2001 14 Marklar 75 f1paul 301 Anderis 15 Barty 20 sladealonso 14 noikeee 74 Marklar 300 M2000-5 13 Brawn BGP 001 20 wattoroos 13 sladealonso 66 Brawn BGP 001 299 mark f1 10 M2000-5 19 Makarias 10 GTA 64 Costaz 296 thequadge 6 SpaceHorseParty 17 GTA 6 * Forecast 57 SpaceHorseParty 267 KWSN-DSM 1 f1paul 16 Brawn BGP 001 5 * Current 54 Anderis 238 GTA 0 thequadge 12 thequadge 5 * Current 46 GTA 0 thequadge 7 * Current 37 thequadge 12Kvyat needs to finish P2 in Abu Dhabi to become a 100% surprise. As if a Toro Rosso can finish P2 in 2019!
The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/- mark f1 1799,7 7,0 Grayson 1780,5 15,3 Kev00 1775,8 39,0 DutchQuicksilver 1767,2 24,1 Bleu 1759,5 18,3 GTA 1753,5 21,1 sladealonso 1752,8 25,3 thegforcemaybewithyou1744,3 15,0 scheivlak 1744,0 25,5 wattoroos 1742,2 34,2 Makarias 1740,9 26,6 M2000-5 1734,7 19,4 Barty 1722,1 12,0 fisichella_2001 1720,5 10,5 Marklar 1707,0 25,5 KWSN-DSM 1690,2 25,2 noikeee 1688,1 20,6 Brawn BGP 001 1673,5 11,1 Costaz 1654,5 34,7 f1paul 1649,0 25,4 thequadge 1628,3 1,2 SpaceHorseParty 1613,1 25,3 Anderis 1562,0 25,5Points to some unusual suspects was great news for the forecasts. mark f1 remains title favourite by a decent margin.
