104 replies to this topic

[BuddyHolly]

Just a bit of fun (mods, if you find it in bad taste, please delete it.) How many races will be cancelled (not postponed) in 2020 due to 2019-nCoV?

[HeadFirst]

To be honest I am no expert on the virus, so take my somewhat dire prediction with a grain of salt. I've watched the crisis deepen, and the inability of some governments to meet the challenge. Numbers of afflicted are always low, when no testing program is in place. The result of complacency is the rapid spread of the virus, and the impact on the people and economy of a nation. Political borders are no barrier to 2019-nCoV, and it is easy to imagine the lengths that governments will go to, in hopes of lessening it's impact. I really hope I am wrong.

[Bomsb]

Im guessing 7. Italy, Japan, China, Vietnam, Singapore, Brazil, Abu Dhabi.

[AustinF1]

Welp, MotoGP has already cancelled/postponed 2 and there are rumors now that COTA is next to go (postponed to September).

[kumo7]

I say also 7

 

Bahrain, Vietnam, China, Netherlands, Spain, Azerbaijans, Canada...

 

Hope none wil die...

[AustinF1]

I say also 7

 

Bahrain, Vietnam, China, Netherlands, Spain, Azerbaijans, Canada...

 

Hope none wil die...

Why Canada?

[OO7]

Im guessing 7. Italy, Japan, China, Vietnam, Singapore, Brazil, Abu Dhabi.

 

 

I say also 7

 

Bahrain, Vietnam, China, Netherlands, Spain, Azerbaijans, Canada...

 

Hope none wil die...

 

That brings us close to the 16 race calendar that many crave for.

[lustigson]

I'm going to be bold and say 'none'.

[player1s]

I'm going to be bold and say 'none'.

thats near impossible IMHO. I cannot see them slot in China anywhere later this season.

 

The aftermath of the first few races (if they go ahead) will predict the rest of the season. If, for example, there is a big outbreak of Corona after the Australian GP and it can be linked back to said GP you can bet your bottom dollar that races will drop like flies. No proper country will want to take that risk.

Edited by player1s, 06 March 2020 - 07:49.

[jjcale]

I'm going to be bold and say 'none'.

 

Also voted none ..... there are very strong incentives not to "cancel". 

[Marklar]

I say one.

Melbourne seems to be going ahead. Bahrain is bending its rules for F1. And Vietnam recently changed their requirements for Italians to airport check-ups and they are probably desperate for this race too (though i still put a questionmark here)

Once we enter Europe its not anymore a matter of cancellation or not but about audience or not, like Italia is currently doing it.

By the time we enter the 2nd overseas leg most experts reckon that the summer dealt with the virus. If not, then I could see more races, Japan especially, in danger, but *way* too early to say.

[messy]

Hopefully only one or two. I'm going to be bold and say one, China. By the time we get to the second half of the season it *should* have died away by then, if you listen to the 'experts'.

[nosecone]

Considering how many races are nowadays in totalitarian regimes which want to keep their face under all circumstances, the number will be low. Also consider that the humans are greedy beeings.

 

 

I have voted for only 3. Probably Bahrain/China, Vietnam, Italy.

 

Edit: Either Bahrain or China are so interested in keeping their image that they will host a GP

Edited by nosecone, 06 March 2020 - 08:27.

[Ali623]

China most likely, can't see them fitting it in later in the year, and that's assuming the situation is better in the country by that point.

 

Bahrain will stay, I feel like they'll do anything to make sure the GP goes ahead regardless of safety, considering the other questionable things they've done. Vietnam will likely go ahead too, simply because of the investment into the race, they'll be desperate to make it happen.

 

Italy is still to far away to judge, situation could be fine by then, or maybe not.

[Balnazzard]

Honestly too early to say at this point....

It could be that no more races will be cancelled, that somehow they are able to push through them no matter what (perhaps some races will be done in front of empty seats) or that it could be that the whole season ends up being cancelled in worst case scenario.

The way this situation is developing and how quickly is spreading, how different countries and teams/companies will react...there are too many factors to consider to say any clear number.

All I know that Australia will go forward, I dont see them cancelling that at this point anymore, but after Melbourne its completely unknown cause the situation could be in many countries lot worse 2 weeks from now than it is today. We also dont know if summer and higher temperaturs are going to have any effect on hindering the spreading of the virus

One thing I think its almost 100% certain that if some teams, especially Ferrari would not be able to travel to some countries, then I dont see those races going forward.

Edited by Balnazzard, 06 March 2020 - 09:57.

[doc83]

Hard to say, but the situtation is getting worse every day, so most of them are at risk. In Europe the epidemic is just starting.

[Talisman]

I'm surprised by the number of people bringing up Italy as a race to be cancelled without mentioning any other European races.  By the time we get to the Dutch GP most major European countries will be in a worse situation than Italy is in today.

 

As some others have said it looks almost certain Australia will go ahead and the Bahrainis are introducing special measures to reduce the risks with their own GP so theirs probably will too.  The Vietnamese race is less certain simply because its further down the line.

 

The other races will simply depend on whether banning large public meetings is part of the hosting countries' plans for limiting disease burden.

Edited by Talisman, 06 March 2020 - 10:25.

[player1s]

I'm surprised by the number of people bringing up Italy as a race to be cancelled without mentioning any other European races.  By the time we get to the Dutch GP most major European countries will be in a worse situation than Italy is in today.

 

As some others have said it looks almost certain Australia will go ahead and the Bahrainis are introducing special measures to reduce the risks with their own GP so theirs probably will too.  The Vietnamese race is less certain simply because its further down the line.

 

The other races will simply depend on whether banning large public meetings is part of the hosting countries' plans for limiting disease burden.

 

 

Its not just the fans around the track however. How many staff does a team bring? 100? Thats 2.000 people alone that get together and need to sleep somewhere? Will they erect tents around the track for them to stay in or will they still stay in hotels?
If they stay in hotels, will the entire staff there be staying home and do the teams have to do their own housekeeping? Or can we add a few hunderd people of hotel staff to the potential risk group?
And how do they get from the hotel to the track and back? Are we giving them rental cars that go into quarantine for 14 days after the race?

And then we still have the medical teams and marchals that need to be around the track and the FIA staff.
All in all I can see at least 3.000 to 4.000 people that still will be directly or indirectly involved with the race. Its still a risk. And as I said earlier, if the first few GP's can link new, massive outbreaks to the GP all other GP's will be in doubt.
 

[Talisman]

Its not just the fans around the track however. How many staff does a team bring? 100? Thats 2.000 people alone that get together and need to sleep somewhere? Will they erect tents around the track for them to stay in or will they still stay in hotels?
If they stay in hotels, will the entire staff there be staying home and do the teams have to do their own housekeeping? Or can we add a few hunderd people of hotel staff to the potential risk group?
And how do they get from the hotel to the track and back? Are we giving them rental cars that go into quarantine for 14 days after the race?

And then we still have the medical teams and marchals that need to be around the track and the FIA staff.
All in all I can see at least 3.000 to 4.000 people that still will be directly or indirectly involved with the race. Its still a risk. And as I said earlier, if the first few GP's can link new, massive outbreaks to the GP all other GP's will be in doubt.

Not sure I see the relevance.

Governments will simply apply a blanket ban on public meetings over a certain size (or not) if they believe this is in the interests of limiting spread. Who the people are doesn’t matter.

There is no international consensus on whether limiting public meetings is effective or worth the economic and psychological/social impact that would result. Trying to predict how the 17 or so different countries hosting races once the sport returns to Europe will behave in response to the same epidemic is difficult at the moment.

Edited by Talisman, 06 March 2020 - 11:13.

[jjcale]

If China hosts two different races next year .... does that count as this year's race just being postponed to 2021? 

[Risil]

It would be really strange for two world championships to be going on simultaneously.

[Coral]

I voted none! I still think this virus will be gone in a couple of months.

[jjcale]

It would be really strange for two world championships to be going on simultaneously.

 

Its a compromise ... work with me.

[Risil]

Its a compromise ... work with me.

I remember in Indycar when they held two races on different continents on the same day, which both counted towards the same championship. So I'm ready to hear anything.

[BuddyHolly]

For the record I voted one, I don't see them placing China in another slot.

[danmills]

I wonder if this could be a chance to run an experimental season somewhere along the lines, double headers, reverse grids with it being a year before the rule changes.

Opportunities to be had.

[Otaku]

None

[MattK9]

It seems like the virus is taking hold in a lot of countries. Give it a few months and the virus will be so spread around that we wont be worried about containment anymore.

[danmills]

How many circuits have landing facities in close proximity? Aside the obvious customs issues at main airports, I wonder if they'd be allowed to fly direct to close by airports to minimise travel.

[JHSingo]

Hopefully all of them! Let's just bin this season, and move on to 2021 - with (hopefully) better racing, a closer grid, and a much needed competitive shake up of the order...

 

On a serious note, I think it'll probably have a minimal impact. I think we've probably been getting a bit too excited by some of the doom-laden talk, and that it'll all be forgotten about by summer. I'd say a maximum number of 5, although 2-3 is more likely.

[noikeee]

I think they might call off the season after Bahrain.

[Nobody]

The biggest fear is fear itself, the paranoia is becoming more dangerous to society than the virus

[Fatgadget]

The biggest fear is fear itself, the paranoia is becoming more dangerous to society than the virus

 

In my neck of the woods local traders reporting a distinct down turn in business. And in the biggest supermarket a high percentage of shoppers wearing face masks and security wearing latex gloves! WTF?

Edited by Fatgadget, 08 March 2020 - 21:32.

[Fatgadget]

I wonder if this could be a chance to run an experimental season somewhere along the lines, double headers, reverse grids with it being a year before the rule changes.

Opportunities to be had.

At the end of the day what?

[Clatter]

I remember in Indycar when they held two races on different continents on the same day, which both counted towards the same championship. So I'm ready to hear anything.

When did that happen?

[Risil]

April 20, 2008. The CCWS/IRL merger had come together late enough that for whatever reason Champ Car opted to run a last race with their equipment and rules at Long Beach the same weekend as the IRL regulars raced at Motegi in Japan. Strangely enough the Long Beach race had a bigger field than the Indy Japan could draw.

[DutchQuicksilver]

If it’s starting to get troublesome maybe F1 should also consider hosting races behind closed doors, like MotoGP is considering.

[Ali623]

Closed door races sounds like the most obvious solution. These events are being cancelled because it’s a large gathering of people from various parts of the world. Football are doing it.

Edited by Ali623, 07 March 2020 - 12:35.

[sopa]

Most races will be cancelled. Forget about the season, and worry about economic crash. Stay safe, and rather prepare for 2021. That would include F1 teams too.

 

Pandemic doesn't disappear within days or months. It will take several months to peak, and it would be around for at least half a year with about up to 70% of human population getting infected. In the end you would have to re-build from economic ruins, which also takes time.

Edited by sopa, 12 March 2020 - 10:01.

[Augurk]

Closed door races sounds like the most obvious solution. These events are being cancelled because it’s a large gathering of people from various parts of the world. Football are doing it.

The thing is even behind closed doors this is still a large gathering of people from various parts of the world. 

[milestone 11]

Most races will be cancelled. Forget about the season, and worry about economic crash. Stay safe, and rather prepare for 2021. That would include F1 teams too.

 

Pandemic doesn't disappear within days or months. It will take several months to peak, and it would be around for at least half a year with about up to 70% of human population getting infected. In the end you would have to re-build from economic ruins, which also takes time.

There was only me and A.N. Other when I answered this poll, I was hoping that I was being overly pessimistic.

[Knowlesy]

I voted nine. Hoping that is overly pessimistic, worried it is a gross under estimation.

[Beri]

No race has been cancelled (yet). China is postponed and Vietnam will also be announced. But cancelled? No. I think they will find a new spot on the calendar for the postponed races.

[Quickshifter]

I was the first one to vote,10 or more. I work in health Care. Airborne droplet infection can spread like wild fire and very very hard to contain. There Will always be plenty of asymptomatic carriers who can pass on the infection while not exhibiting any symptoms themselves.

[sabjit]

I was the first one to vote,10 or more. I work in health Care. Airborne droplet infection can spread like wild fire and very very hard to contain. There Will always be plenty of asymptomatic carriers who can pass on the infection while not exhibiting any symptoms themselves.

 

So wouldnt this outbreak peak and tail away leaving time for races from June onwards?

[Atreiu]

I have no idea and I don't see much of a point on guessing it.

[Prometheus]

Roll on 2021

[pdac]

Looks like my early guestimate of 5 might be wrong.

[MikeV1987]

I wouldn't be surprised if the season didn't start until the summer time.

[Clrnc]

Why don't the poll get changed to how many races will be on going? Easier that way...

 

The virus will get a lot worse so I can't see how the season is going to get restarted