145 replies to this topic

[thequadge]

I have been thinking with the current situation likely cancelling at least 50% of the 2020 races and possibly more, combined with the deep recession into which the world has been plunged, how many of the current manufacturers will stay in F1 for 2022 which will involve big investment due to the new rules. In the last crisis, Honda, BMW and Toyota all left quickly. I think we will see similar this time.

 

Team      Chance of leaving      Comment

Renault             70%                 Renault have poured money in for little reward and rumours were around last season that the board were considering departure. I think this is more than likely to push them over the edge.

Mercedes         50%                  Merc are in a stronger position having made lots of Prize money and got an excellent return in marketing terms but even they had rumours earlier in the year of quitting and with Hamilton approaching the tail end of his                                                         career the board may review their position especially if their premium sector of the car market is hit hard.

Honda              30%                 Honda are less likely in my view, they have spent big money to have a lot of bad press from the McLaren Debacle and having forged a new partnership with Red Bull and especially the coming man in Verstappen I think                                                         they are more likely to stay and capitalise on others departures. They may weather the recession better as they aren't as high end.

Ferrari               1%                  Ferrari aren't leaving, while they are useless at winning anything without Schuey, Todt and Brawn, F1 is there reason for being so they are staying until they go bust basically.

 

What are others thoughts on this?

Edited by thequadge, 03 April 2020 - 17:00.

[GrumpyYoungMan]

Is there even an agreement to race?

I thought the current Concorde agreement was due to end this year?

[Ben1445]

Agree that Renault are most likely to leave, especially if it is decided that the the PU rules are to be left unchanged for a significant length of time. They've perhaps been the most vocal about advancing PU tech onwards with more electrification. Lack of technical rules progress and a financial pinch would be good reason to go. 

[GrumpyYoungMan]

Agree that Renault are most likely to leave, especially if it is decided that the the PU rules are to be left unchanged for a significant length of time. They've perhaps been the most vocal about advancing PU tech onwards with more electrification. Lack of technical rules progress and a financial pinch would be good reason to go.

Depends - as the PUs may now be frozen for a few years to save the money...

Edited by GrumpyYoungMan, 03 April 2020 - 19:15.

[GrumpyYoungMan]

F1 is in a dangerous place given the global recession we will fall into... all manufactures will feel the pinch...

Has a new agreement been reached to race on past 2020?

Because doesn’t the current Concorde agreement end this year?

[HistoryFan]

we really need a very much cheaper Formula One with easier engines for more manufacture joining the series.

[Ben1445]

Depends - as the PUs may now be frozen for a few years to save the money...

Well, true. But Renault have specifically been calling for increased electrification in the next set of PU rules to match what they're doing with road cars. If that is delayed or does not happen in the name of cutting costs, be it in engine freezes or otherwise...it could still give them an out. Unless they suddenly start winning I think their place his still very much at risk - compounding cost cutting measures won't help them move up the grid. 
 
If I were Renault I'd actually be tempted to look into repurposing Enstone and Viry-Châtillon towards a Hypercar (or LMDh) effort like Toyota did with TMG after they left F1. Go for home glory at Le Mans. 

Edited by Ben1445, 03 April 2020 - 21:16.

[GrumpyYoungMan]

Well, true. But Renault have specifically been calling for increased electrification in the next set of PU rules to match what they're doing with road cars. If that is delayed or does not happen in the name of cutting costs, be it in engine freezes or otherwise...it could still give them an out. Unless they suddenly start winning I think their place his still very much at risk - compounding cost cutting measures won't help them move up the grid.

If I were Renault I'd actually be tempted to look into repurposing Enstone and Viry-Châtillon towards a Hypercar (or LMDh) effort like Toyota did with TMG after they left F1. Go for home glory at Le Mans.

Problem will be the global recession and the lack of money...

It will make more sense to keep the current PUs as the money has already been spent and basically frozen as they have never been used and the factories are shut...

[Sash1]

1. The factories are loosing huge sums of money at the moment. If they don't go bankrupt, their budgets will be decreased. At the same time the push for hydrogen and electrification is still requiring huge investments.
2. Sponsors run their own businesses. They are facing huge challenges as well. If they survive, there will be less budget to pay for logo's on cars. Less money for the team budget.
3. You can forget any significant racing this year and certainly not with paying spectators. Less money for tracks, less money for promotors, more trouble to pay hosting fees or even the organisation of the events.
4. If they are unable to run the minimum number of events there will hardly be any price money to devide. So running the team on price money, historic bonusses will be hard.

IMHO if the teams cannot secure the necessary money without the financial support of the factory, they will be finished. It might soon (next year) be necessary to even ditch the hybrid engines and run simple third party low cost normally aspirated engines. The same formula as the F2 Mechachrome V6 for example. I bet you can buy 20 of those for the cost of one F1 hybrid system.

[Kalmake]

Manufacturing is small fraction of the F1 engine costs. Easiest way to save money is dev-freeze more parts. The original plan set in 2014 had almost full freeze two years ago.

 

Trouble is Renault being so bad they can't really agree to it.

[Ben1445]

Problem will be the global recession and the lack of money...

Of course. That’s a given.

It will make more sense to keep the current PUs as the money has already been spent and basically frozen as they have never been used and the factories are shut...

I would agree that F1 now adopting some expensive new engine formula is looking unlikely. But that’s my point about Renault - are they going to be happy to run a very expensive F1 operation (€175m including budget cap?) for something they can’t really develop and - lets be honest here - are unlikely to win with? The more you cap further the even less likely they are to win... unless you BoP F1....

I only mentioned the Hypercar point because the all-in budgets were supposed to be targeted as being €25-30m. I’m sure they could use a derivative of the F1 PU to save money and the Enstone team should have little issue in chassis development. The whole thing then gets BoP’d so they’d get a shot at winning some very important races and to write history on a fraction of the budget that even a development-frozen F1 would require. If money is indeed tight that doesn’t sound like a completely crazy option.

[GrumpyYoungMan]

1. The factories are loosing huge sums of money at the moment. If they don't go bankrupt, their budgets will be decreased. At the same time the push for hydrogen and electrification is still requiring huge investments.
2. Sponsors run their own businesses. They are facing huge challenges as well. If they survive, there will be less budget to pay for logo's on cars. Less money for the team budget.
3. You can forget any significant racing this year and certainly not with paying spectators. Less money for tracks, less money for promotors, more trouble to pay hosting fees or even the organisation of the events.
4. If they are unable to run the minimum number of events there will hardly be any price money to devide. So running the team on price money, historic bonusses will be hard.

IMHO if the teams cannot secure the necessary money without the financial support of the factory, they will be finished. It might soon (next year) be necessary to even ditch the hybrid engines and run simple third party low cost normally aspirated engines. The same formula as the F2 Mechachrome V6 for example. I bet you can buy 20 of those for the cost of one F1 hybrid system.

They won’t throw the hybrid away and retool to make a NA V6 again, more likely to just freeze the PU for a few years any switch will cost money. I think this is why they are trying to freeze the 2021 regulation changes for 2023 to give the teams chance to recoup some of the lost money... I can’t see a season happening in 2020...

[FortiFord]

I have been thinking with the current situation likely cancelling at least 50% of the 2020 races and possibly more, combined with the deep recession into which the world has been plunged, how many of the current manufacturers will stay in F1 for 2022 which will involve big investment due to the new rules. In the last crisis, Honda, BMW and Toyota all left quickly. I think we will see similar this time.

 

Team      Chance of leaving      Comment

Renault             70%                 Renault have poured money in for little reward and rumours were around last season that the board were considering departure. I think this is more than likely to push them over the edge.

Mercedes         50%                  Merc are in a stronger position having made lots of Prize money and got an excellent return in marketing terms but even they had rumours earlier in the year of quitting and with Hamilton approaching the tail end of his                                                         career the board may review their position especially if their premium sector of the car market is hit hard.

Honda              30%                 Honda are less likely in my view, they have spent big money to have a lot of bad press from the McLaren Debacle and having forged a new partnership with Red Bull and especially the coming man in Verstappen I think                                                         they are more likely to stay and capitalise on others departures. They may weather the recession better as they aren't as high end.

Ferrari               1%                  Ferrari aren't leaving, while they are useless at winning anything without Schuey, Todt and Brawn, F1 is there reason for being so they are staying until they go bust basically.

 

What are others thoughts on this?

 

F1 is in a tricky position. 

 

At the time of the last recession in 2008/09 there were more manufacturers in the sport (Renault, BMW, Ferrari, Mercedes, Toyota, Honda). 3 of them dropped out. 

 

If the same happens, then can F1 really survive with just 1 or 2 engine suppliers?

[GrumpyYoungMan]

F1 is in a tricky position.

At the time of the last recession in 2008/09 there were more manufacturers in the sport (Renault, BMW, Ferrari, Mercedes, Toyota, Honda). 3 of them dropped out.

If the same happens, then can F1 really survive with just 1 or 2 engine suppliers?

To be fair this time could see them all leave... ...this is far worse than any recession - did they agree a new Concorde agreement for racing beyond 2020!

[PayasYouRace]

 

If the same happens, then can F1 really survive with just 1 or 2 engine suppliers?

 

Of course it can. I'd say that's the most viable survival strategy in difficult times. It also means we'd be more likely to see competitive racing in what could be a reduced field.

[DutchQuicksilver]

Talking about Renault. If they do leave I don’t mind if they never come back. They always leave F1 when things don’t go their way. They did after 2010 and looks like they’re doing it again after 2021.

[FortiFord]

Talking about Renault. If they do leave I don’t mind if they never come back. They always leave F1 when things don’t go their way. They did after 2010 and looks like they’re doing it again after 2021.

 

what about 1997? 

[Kalmake]

Talking about Renault. If they do leave I don’t mind if they never come back. They always leave F1 when things don’t go their way. They did after 2010 and looks like they’re doing it again after 2021.

Except of course continuing to win as engine supplier for RBR.

 

They have been mostly harmless in general. 1985 was the only time their exit killed a team. 90's engine project was allowed to continue without their brand.

[BRG]

.. can F1 really survive with just 1 or 2 engine suppliers?

1975?  Apart from the final death throes of BRM (two DNFs) the season was fought out by COsworth powered teams trying to beat the Ferraris.  Seemed OK at the time....

 

If all the manufacturers withdraw (we can but hope) and one or two leave their PUs, badged as, say, Mecachrome and Mugen freely available to the remaining budget-capped privateers, and perhaps some newcomers, we could have a far healthier F1.

[Anuity]

If they leave, I think it could be a nice "reset" for F1 in general. To be honest I think racing would be much more fun.

 

F1 will survive this for sure, unless it's a total worldwide disaster.

[Ben1445]

1975?  Apart from the final death throes of BRM (two DNFs) the season was fought out by COsworth powered teams trying to beat the Ferraris.  Seemed OK at the time....

 

If all the manufacturers withdraw (we can but hope) and one or two leave their PUs, badged as, say, Mecachrome and Mugen freely available to the remaining budget-capped privateers, and perhaps some newcomers, we could have a far healthier F1.

I think they're quickly running out of other options really. 

 

I still think a longer term answer lies in a standard/capped ICE output. I still think a necessity though is to allow development of the electric side of a hybrid set up just because it's good business sense. Williams and McLaren both have engineering side arms who are adept in that regard, so it doesn't actually require big manufacturer involvement - just smaller engineering specialists who can do that kind of thing. If you reduce the aerodynamic importance and pitch it towards electrification you can let the privateers go racing in their own chassis, a cheap customer ICE and whatever clever magic they can engineer in electrical recovery and deployment within an agreed budget cap.

[GrumpyYoungMan]

If they leave, I think it could be a nice "reset" for F1 in general. To be honest I think racing would be much more fun.

F1 will survive this for sure, unless it's a total worldwide disaster.

Which it is... in fact it’s much worse than a worldwide disaster... far worse...

[eibyyz]

Ilmor builds a spec motor for lease--Penske's backdoor entry to F1.   35 entries, 25 races.

[pdac]

To be fair this time could see them all leave... ...this is far worse than any recession - did they agree a new Concorde agreement for racing beyond 2020!

 

Not all of them will leave, but F1 will undoubtedly have to go full electric pretty soon to keep them. If manufacturers were reluctant to pursue ICE before, you can guarantee they are not going to now.

Edited by pdac, 04 April 2020 - 19:48.

[r4mses]

we really need a very much cheaper Formula One with easier engines for more manufacture joining the series.

 

Ye, however that's somewhat impossible in the sense of it's just possible if we're talking about easy internal combustion engines or full electric. But ice  are the past and F1 cannot afford to look back into the "good old times" while the other is already occupied by FE. The only way I can see F1 being unique and relevant is if it' goes for hydrogen... but I doubt that'll come cheap.

[Fatgadget]

we really need a very much cheaper Formula One with easier engines for more manufacture joining the series.

A cheapskate F1 a contradiction in terms.

[Jops14]

I've always found the manufacturer debate fascinating. In years past when engines were cheaper you could always get a company trying their arm with an in-house engine, an impossibility because of engine rules now.

 

The way I think of it is, if you simplified it down to just a regular V6 Turbo (possibly with standardised KERS?) sure a bunch of manufacturers might leave, and suddenly it creates an opportunity for the JUDD's of the world. Couple eyars of that and won't be loing before a manufacturer takes a look and goes "with our money we could probably win!"

 

It just a cyclical thing, F1 thrives because of it's audience, I think it got confused and started thinking manufacturers were the key to viewers.

[JHSingo]

Easy to say with retrospect, but really what F1 should have investigated in recent years was an independent, external engine supplier - someone like Cosworth for example - which would at least then act as a safe guard from another mass exodus of manufacturers.

 

Realistic? Maybe not, given the expense involved in these needlessly complex engines in the first place, but having a control engine supplier - like some series already have - would surely have been worth at least considering for, if nothing else, breaking up the manufacturer hegemony.

 

Once again, it shows a balance needs to be met when discussing the next engine regulations. It's all very well being 'road relevant', but if that results in the engines being so catastrophically expensive that only the biggest manufacturers can hope to enter, then what's the point? All that needs to happen is for there to be an economic downturn, those same manufacturers to leave, and you're faced with an even bigger problem than if you'd stuck with a cheaper, but less road relevant, option. Imagine if this had happened in 2014. Then the sport really would be in the ****.

[Kalmake]

Easy to say with retrospect, but really what F1 should have investigated in recent years was an independent, external engine supplier - someone like Cosworth for example - which would at least then act as a safe guard from another mass exodus of manufacturers.

It was investigated. Bernie was quite loud about this. Usual suspects of course prefer to have smaller them as their customers and block such idea best they can.

[Ben1445]

Easy to say with retrospect, but really what F1 should have investigated in recent years was an independent, external engine supplier - someone like Cosworth for example - which would at least then act as a safe guard from another mass exodus of manufacturers.

 

Realistic? Maybe not, given the expense involved in these needlessly complex engines in the first place, but having a control engine supplier - like some series already have - would surely have been worth at least considering for, if nothing else, breaking up the manufacturer hegemony.

 

Once again, it shows a balance needs to be met when discussing the next engine regulations. It's all very well being 'road relevant', but if that results in the engines being so catastrophically expensive that only the biggest manufacturers can hope to enter, then what's the point? All that needs to happen is for there to be an economic downturn, those same manufacturers to leave, and you're faced with an even bigger problem than if you'd stuck with a cheaper, but less road relevant, option. Imagine if this had happened in 2014. Then the sport really would be in the ****.

All things considered, I think this is absolutely the right path to be taking for the next set of PU rules - at very least on the ICE side (more of my thoughts on that in post #21).

 

Ideally (based on what we have seen happen over the last decade in motorsport) the best course of action in light of recent events might be to: 

- accept that short-term manufacturer losses are inevitable 

- build new PU rules not around the manufacturer's wishes but around the constructor's operational wellbeing 

- ensure these rules are future proof for the sake of protecting funding streams (include hybrid development, restrict ICE) 

- put in place pre-emptive cost control measures that prioritise constructors from day one

- Let the constructors pioneer this new formula in their own way so that...

- If manufacturers do want in on this new formula, allow them to do so subject to the established cost control measures 

 

All of which is easier said than done and would likely have to be predicated by what would feel like a catastrophic collapse of F1 as we know it. But then who says that's not on the cards anyway... 

[SonGoku]

I think F1 is in the worst position in their history, why? This was the situation BEFORE the coronavirus: - The leading team Mercedes has to convince their board to continue, imagine a top football club needing to do this after winning so much. - Renault has a new board, no success, very easy to get out of the failed project - HAAS boss Gene said in the Netflix doc that if the performances aren't improved he will leave the sport, that's another team gone. - According to Dutch media reporters Williams financial situation is terrible, Williams team members told him that in Australia BEFORE the coronavirus, a very worrying situation. - Honda has only extended their engine deal with Red Bull for one season, because there is a fight going inside Honda to invest in more electric engines instead of hybrids, not sure they will continue after 2021. That's basically three engine suppliers and 4 F1 teams unsure about being in F1 BEFORE the coronavirus, imagine a global recession going over that. Ferrari and Red Bull can say what they want, but if they want the sport to survive they have to take action and agree with new terms. I also hear some people say well good then we are only left with privateers, where are those privateers then replacing the factory teams? I heard the same after 2008, guess what the new teams never came or they failed and left the sport anyway...

Edited by SonGoku, 05 April 2020 - 14:04.

[JHSingo]

All things considered, I think this is absolutely the right path to be taking for the next set of PU rules - at very least on the ICE side (more of my thoughts on that in post #21).

 

Good post, and I do agree. I think there needs to be a concerted effort to shift the balance of power away from the manufacturers (or at least, redress the balance of power so it's more equal). The independent teams are, and always will be, the lifeblood of the sport, and if that means pissing off manufacturers who are forever threatening to quit the moment things aren't exactly to their liking, so be it.

 

You pick an era from the past like the 70s, and there weren't that many manufacturers present on the grid was full works outfits - the grid was mainly made up of small independent teams, most of which are no longer around but are still remembered fondly. Obviously as the sport has become more popular and more commercially attractive in the subsequent decades, that has been lost. But it's difficult for a sport as prestigious as F1 to say that they're going to focus on the independents, because the attraction of having a heavy manufacturer presence will always be more attractive, regardless of the damage it may well cause at a later stage.

 

It's just amazing that very seldomly are lessons learnt from motorsport history, regardless of how many times situations like this occur. 2008 isn't that long ago, and what meaningful changes have really been made since then to prevent a similar situation from happening again? I can't think of a single one. It's maddening.

Edited by JHSingo, 05 April 2020 - 14:14.

[PayasYouRace]

I think F1 is in the worst position in their history, why? This was the situation BEFORE the coronavirus: - The leading team Mercedes has to convince their board to continue, imagine a top football club needing to do this after winning so much. - Renault has a new board, no success, very easy to get out of the failed project - HAAS boss Gene said in the Netflix doc that if the performances aren't improved he will leave the sport, that's another team gone. - According to Dutch media reporters Williams financial situation is terrible, Williams team members told him that in Australia BEFORE the coronavirus, a very worrying situation. - Honda has only extended their engine deal with Red Bull for one season, because there is a fight going inside Honda to invest in more electric engines instead of hybrids, not sure they will continue after 2021. That's basically three engine suppliers and 4 F1 teams unsure about being in F1 BEFORE the coronavirus, imagine a global recession going over that. Ferrari and Red Bull can say what they want, but if they want the sport to survive they have to take action and agree with new terms. I also hear some people say well good then we are only left with privateers, where are those privateers then replacing the factory teams? I heard the same after 2008, guess what the new teams never came or they failed and left the sport anyway...

 

Even if things are as dire as you predict, it's still not as bad as the 1951/52 off season.

[Jops14]

Good post, and I do agree. I think there needs to be a concerted effort to shift the balance of power away from the manufacturers (or at least, redress the balance of power so it's more equal). The independent teams are, and always will be, the lifeblood of the sport, and if that means pissing off manufacturers who are forever threatening to quit the moment things aren't exactly to their liking, so be it.

 

You pick an era from the past like the 70s, and there weren't that many manufacturers present on the grid was full works outfits - the grid was mainly made up of small independent teams, most of which are no longer around but are still remembered fondly. Obviously as the sport has become more popular and more commercially attractive in the subsequent decades, that has been lost. But it's difficult for a sport as prestigious as F1 to say that they're going to focus on the independents, because the attraction of having a heavy manufacturer presence will always be more attractive, regardless of the damage it may well cause at a later stage.

 

It's just amazing that very seldomly are lessons learnt from motorsport history, regardless of how many times situations like this occur. 2008 isn't that long ago, and what meaningful changes have really been made since then to prevent a similar situation from happening again? I can't think of a single one. It's maddening.

Completely agree, 1 or 2 control manufacturers would be good, maybe even something crazy like a multi-engine formula using V10's that have lower weight restriction.

 

I think the cost cap will be good, the difference between 175 and spending 100m, you would hope is small enough a Williams could spring a surprise, but the legendary names aren't Honda or Toyota, they are Tyrrell, Lotus, Brabham, McLaren, Williams, Ferrari. Basically all independants, because the story is about the drivers and the teams, I don't think that many fans actually care about the details behind who is building the engine

[Ben1445]

It's just amazing that very seldomly are lessons learnt from motorsport history, regardless of how many times situations like this occur. 2008 isn't that long ago, and what meaningful changes have really been made since then to prevent a similar situation from happening again? I can't think of a single one. It's maddening.

I'm particularly frustrated with the way the FIA/ACO has handled the post LMP1-H era. The category had all but collapsed completely, making it the perfect time to rebuild from the ground up with new measures to protect privateers and what have they gone and done? Created another almighty mess whilst chasing the manufactures wishes. 

 

I suppose F1 post 2008 seemed to be doing more or less ok and that has allowed them to sleepwalk into the current situation without the need for a complete realignment of the balance of power. I've felt that an LMP1-H style collapse in F1 is not impossible for a few years now and that is only strengthened by the coronavirus crisis. 

 

I know that it's not to everyone's tastes as a series, but I really do think FE's model is one to be admired. If a manufacturer leaves, the slot can be taken up by a privateer and they are allowed to buy any of the homologated manufacturer powertrains at a capped price. It has already worked to great effect. I don't think LMP1-H would have collapsed if a similar model had been in place and privateers had a protected right to buy cost-capped manufacturer produced equipment - in fact prototype racing might be thriving. 

[Anderis]

Easy to say with retrospect, but really what F1 should have investigated in recent years was an independent, external engine supplier - someone like Cosworth for example - which would at least then act as a safe guard from another mass exodus of manufacturers.

Not only with retrospect- it has always seemed to be a sensible idea, especially after the 2008 crisis and the subsequent exodus of manufacturers from F1.

 

It was tried to be done in 2010 but in the end it was troubelsome for Cosworth to keep up with the other engine suppliers. I think it was not even a response to the economic crisis but a continuation of Mosley's several years old plan to weaken the influence of manufacturers in F1.

 

You would need to make F1 engines really affordable to make it work and it's of course not something teams like Ferrari or Mercedes wanted, so you would need to have a serious power struggle to enforce this. Might as well say the idea is just part of a bigger picture.- you would need a complete overhaul of what F1 is to make it work and then of course the changes would go much beyond having an independent engine supplier.

[RacingGreen]

1975?  Apart from the final death throes of BRM (two DNFs) the season was fought out by COsworth powered teams trying to beat the Ferraris.  Seemed OK at the time....

 

If all the manufacturers withdraw (we can but hope) and one or two leave their PUs, badged as, say, Mecachrome and Mugen freely available to the remaining budget-capped privateers, and perhaps some newcomers, we could have a far healthier F1.

 

1975 was a great year but the big difference between then and now is that the teams running Ford/Cosworths weren't competing against a works Ford team so were all on a more or less level playing field. Anyone choosing to use a Mercedes or Ferrari PU these days has to compete against a full works entry for those manufacturers. To look at how difficult that sort of competition would be for the other non-works teams Ferrari, for example, has won 239 F1 races as an engine manufacturer, of which 238 have been by the work entered cars themselves.

 

Also IIRC in 1975 Shadow ran a DN7 (disastrously) in two races with a Matra engine evaluating it for a future entry. Of course as it turned out Shadow stuck with the more reliable Cosworth for 1976 and Matra re-entered F1 in 1976 via the Ligier JS5 "teapot." As far as I know there are no new engine manufacturers on the horizon evaluating possible entry.

 

I actually wouldn't mind an engine freeze for a few seasons as all the PU's are pretty closely matched if the manufacturers themselves withdraw so that all the modes / settings / trick lubricants etc. are available to everyone.

Edited by RacingGreen, 05 April 2020 - 23:56.

[RA2]

Pirelli is not being included in these discussions.

To be fair to them we should speculate on them continuing in F1.

[SonGoku]

Pirelli is not being included in these discussions.

To be fair to them we should speculate on them continuing in F1.

 

I don't think anybody will miss them, certainly not the drivers.

[Ben1445]

1975 was a great year but the big difference between then and now is that the teams running Ford/Cosworths weren't competing against a works Ford team so were all on a more or less level playing field. Anyone choosing to use a Mercedes or Ferrari PU these days has to compete against a full works entry for those manufacturers. To look at how difficult that sort of competition would be for the other non-works teams Ferrari, for example, has won 239 F1 races as an engine manufacturer, of which 238 have been by the work entered cars themselves. 

Alongside Cosworth's difficulty in keeping up with the larger manufacturers at the end of the last V8 era, this is part of the reason I would put a cap on ICE performance and shift primary PU development to electric recovery and deployment. It wound enable a cheap and competitive ICE to be supplied to customers without having to accept a performance deficit to the top manufacturers. The shift to primarily ERS development should then keep F1 relevant to society (and therefore sponsors) without breaking the bank (subject to suitable ground-up cost controls prioritising constructor/privateer health). 

 

If we do get another exodus of manufactures in 2022 I think they will have to do something fairly radical like that which finds the right balance. 

[Clatter]

F1 is in a tricky position. 

 

At the time of the last recession in 2008/09 there were more manufacturers in the sport (Renault, BMW, Ferrari, Mercedes, Toyota, Honda). 3 of them dropped out. 

 

If the same happens, then can F1 really survive with just 1 or 2 engine suppliers?

 

F1 could easily survive with just one engine manufacturer, as long as that manufacturer can produce the required number of engines. That in theory should be easy with the long life engines.

[FortiFord]

F1 could easily survive with just one engine manufacturer, as long as that manufacturer can produce the required number of engines. That in theory should be easy with the long life engines.

 

Would it really be F1 though?

 

Would Ferrari supply engines to Red Bull only to see the latter beat them to the world title?

[PayasYouRace]

Would it really be F1 though?

 

 

If ever a question was going to lead to the death of F1, that is it. The easiest way to lose our sport would be to hold it to an unrealistic standard of purity.

[SonGoku]

Would it really be F1 though?

 

Would Ferrari supply engines to Red Bull only to see the latter beat them to the world title?

 

No, that would be the end of the sport as we know it. Then it's just a Ferrari series organised in Mugello.

Edited by SonGoku, 06 April 2020 - 12:58.

[noikeee]

Even if things are as dire as you predict, it's still not as bad as the 1951/52 off season.

This is a great opening for a discussion on how F1 would look like if they decide to use F2 cars temporarily.

[pdac]

No, that would be the end of the sport as we know it. Then it's just a Ferrari series organised in Mugello.

 

The end of sport as we know it is happening right in front of us all, right now. Money is going to be tight, going forwards. Most sports have become more and more commercialised over the past couple of decades and so those that will survive are the ones that scale back. Sport everywhere is going to be different now.

[ARTGP]

Would it really be F1 though?

 

Would Ferrari supply engines to Red Bull only to see the latter beat them to the world title?

 

 

Renault won titles in 2005 and 2006. And have been slaughtered by Red Bull ever since...

[HeadFirst]

I don't think anybody will miss them, certainly not the drivers.

 

Unless of course there is no tire mfgr to take their place.

[PayasYouRace]

Unless of course there is no tire mfgr to take their place.

 

If every tyre manufacturer in the world goes bust, we have bigger problems than just what F1 teams will put on their wheels.

[Branislav]

If they leave, I think it could be a nice "reset" for F1 in general. To be honest I think racing would be much more fun.

 

F1 will survive this for sure, unless it's a total worldwide disaster.

Agree. One chassis for all and one engine for all. Let's drivers play