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Place The Points Competition 2020 after Austria, Styria and Hungary


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#1 Makarias

Makarias
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Posted 22 July 2020 - 19:43

The standings after Austria:

Pos Name                  Tot Latest
1)  Everyone              101 101

I've been slow with posting these interesting results because as long as we don't know how long the season will be, we don't even know what our entries are!
For now I'm working on the rather shaky assumption that the season will be 15 races long, as I read on Wikipedia that this is Ross Brawn's goal. And I'm a Brawn believer.

The entries

The following list shows the maximum, average ("popularity poll") and minimum bets on each driver. Column "Diff" is Popularity Poll difference to 2019, when there were 21 races.

Name  Max  Pop  Min  Diff
Hami  282  259  212  - 65
Vers  267  215  185  - 35
Bott  260  202  173  - 13
Lecl  239  168  128  -115
Vett  181  149   71  -189
Albo  164  128  100  +110
Pere   97   68   46  + 29
Sain   83   60   44  + 15
Ricc   66   49   31  - 44
Norr   74   46   33  + 16
Stro   75   37    8  + 17
Ocon   50   36   20  + 36
Gasl   44   28   12  -127
Räik   34   20    7  - 37
Kvya   33   19   10  -  2
Magn   36   12    2  - 44
Giov   16    9    5  - 25
Gros   14    7    1  - 54
Russ    7    2    0  +- 0
Lati    3    1    0  +  1

Popularity Poll WCC prediction:

Team   Pts  Diff
Merc   461  - 78
RBR    343  - 62
Ferr   317  -304
McLa   106  + 31
RPoi   105  + 46
Rena    85  - 87
ATau    47  +  8
Alfa    29  - 62
Haas    19  - 98
Will     3  +- 0

Ferrari got WCC hype prior to the 2019 season, not so anymore. McLaren vs Racing Point predicted to be close!

If the Popularity Poll turns out to be a 100% correct prediction, the final standings would look like this:

Pos Name              Tot
1)  GTA                  1458    
2)  mark f1              1457    
3)  DutchQuicksilver     1449    
4)  scheivlak            1447    
5)  Makarias             1440    
6)  fisichella_2001      1438    
7)  KWSN-DSM             1432    
8)  Brawn BGP 001        1431    
9)  Marklar              1428    
10) Bleu                 1427    
11) Kev00                1422    
12) M2000-5              1414    
13) thegforcemaybewithyou1408    
14) jjcale               1392    
15) f1paul               1389    
16) thequadge            1385    
17) SpaceHorseParty      1368    

How many players have guessed each driver for WDC?

Driver  Players
Hami     12
Vers      3
Bott      1
Lecl      1

Teammate battles: Which driver is expected to outscore his teammate?

Owner               Owned
     <-     =    ->
Pere  17    0    0  Stro
Ricc  17    0    0  Ocon
Sain  17    0    0  Norr
Vers  17    0    0  Albo
Gasl  16    0    1  Kvya
Hami  16    0    1  Bott
Magn  16    0    1  Gros
Räik  16    0    1  Giov
Lecl  13    1    3  Vett
Russ  12    5    0  Lati

Each team has a clear favourite this year.
 
The Drivers' list

Driver Expect  Surprise Beat
           %        %     #
Norr     32,6     20,0    0
Giov     22,7     11,8    0
Gasl     21,5     13,3    0
Sain     16,6     11,9    0
Bott     12,4      9,6    0
Pere     11,8      8,2    0
Ocon     11,0      7,8    0
Lecl     10,7      7,5    0
Hami      4,6      4,2    0
Vett      0,7      0,5    0

Interesting start!

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2019 this is 23.


Guesses on P1-P5:

Bottas                 Leclerc                Norris                 Hamilton               Sainz               
* Forecast      375    * Potential     368    * Potential     365    * Potential     362    * Potential     360
* Potential     375    * Forecast      270    * Forecast      225    Makarias        282    * Forecast      150
Kev00           260    thequadge       239    M2000-5          74    thegforcemaybewi280    Brawn BGP 001    83
jjcale          224    fisichella_2001 193    Brawn BGP 001    60    GTA             278    M2000-5          81
SpaceHorseParty 222    Makarias        187    f1paul           56    jjcale          276    f1paul           74
DutchQuicksilver218    thegforcemaybewi181    scheivlak        54    Brawn BGP 001   275    fisichella_2001  71
GTA             208    Bleu            177    Bleu             52    M2000-5         275    Bleu             70
Marklar         208    DutchQuicksilver171    SpaceHorseParty  51    DutchQuicksilver273    scheivlak        64
Makarias        206    Brawn BGP 001   170    KWSN-DSM         50    KWSN-DSM        271    SpaceHorseParty  64
Bleu            204    mark f1         170    fisichella_2001  44    SpaceHorseParty 261    Kev00            63
thegforcemaybewi198    GTA             164    Kev00            44    scheivlak       256    KWSN-DSM         61
Brawn BGP 001   193    scheivlak       164    GTA              41    Bleu            252    Marklar          54
mark f1         191    jjcale          158    mark f1          41    Kev00           252    Makarias         52
scheivlak       191    Kev00           156    thequadge        41    Marklar         250    mark f1          51
M2000-5         189    Marklar         154    Makarias         37    fisichella_2001 249    thequadge        51
thequadge       187    f1paul          151    jjcale           35    mark f1         249    GTA              49
fisichella_2001 185    M2000-5         151    Marklar          35    f1paul          214    DutchQuicksilver 47
KWSN-DSM        177    KWSN-DSM        149    DutchQuicksilver 34    thequadge       212    jjcale           46
f1paul          173    SpaceHorseParty 128    thegforcemaybewi 33    * Forecast      180    thegforcemaybewi 44
* Current        25    * Current        18    * Current        15    * Current        12    * Current        10

Betting low on Norris feels pretty bad for now.

Guesses on P6-P10:

Perez                  Gasly                  Ocon                   Giovinazzi             Vettel              
* Potential     358    * Potential     356    * Potential     354    * Potential     352    * Potential     351
* Forecast      120    * Forecast       90    * Forecast       60    * Forecast       30    thegforcemaybewi181
jjcale           97    scheivlak        44    f1paul           50    GTA              16    fisichella_2001 172
SpaceHorseParty  92    thegforcemaybewi 41    Brawn BGP 001    44    fisichella_2001  15    Makarias        170
Kev00            74    Kev00            34    KWSN-DSM         43    jjcale           13    thequadge       169
Bleu             73    KWSN-DSM         34    scheivlak        43    f1paul           10    mark f1         167
KWSN-DSM         72    jjcale           32    thequadge        43    mark f1          10    f1paul          164
Makarias         72    mark f1          31    SpaceHorseParty  42    thegforcemaybewi 10    DutchQuicksilver161
DutchQuicksilver 70    GTA              30    mark f1          41    Makarias          9    Marklar         159
M2000-5          70    fisichella_2001  28    Marklar          39    thequadge         9    Bleu            153
GTA              69    SpaceHorseParty  28    fisichella_2001  38    DutchQuicksilver  8    GTA             153
scheivlak        68    thequadge        28    DutchQuicksilver 37    Kev00             8    KWSN-DSM        150
Marklar          64    DutchQuicksilver 27    Bleu             33    scheivlak         8    Brawn BGP 001   144
f1paul           61    Brawn BGP 001    24    M2000-5          33    KWSN-DSM          7    jjcale          142
thequadge        59    M2000-5          22    Kev00            29    Bleu              6    Kev00           137
mark f1          58    f1paul           20    Makarias         29    SpaceHorseParty   6    M2000-5         125
Brawn BGP 001    54    Makarias         20    jjcale           26    Brawn BGP 001     5    scheivlak       121
thegforcemaybewi 51    Marklar          20    thegforcemaybewi 26    M2000-5           5    SpaceHorseParty  71
fisichella_2001  46    Bleu             12    GTA              20    Marklar           5    * Forecast       15
* Current         8    * Current         6    * Current         4    * Current         2    * Current         1

Your entries in these lists are scaled and rounded off for a 15 race season, so it might all seem strange to all but SpaceHorseParty who did post a 1515 point entry.

The PTPC forecast
Will appear after the 70th anniversary GP.


Edited by Makarias, 22 July 2020 - 19:44.


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#2 Makarias

Makarias
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  • Joined: December 98

Posted 22 July 2020 - 19:45

The standings after Styria:

Pos Name                  Tot Latest
1)  Everyone              202 101
Still presuming a 15 race season.

The entries
 
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect  Surprise Beat
           %        %     #
Norr     54,3     33,3    0
Pere     23,7     16,3    0
Giov     22,7     11,8    0
Gasl     21,5     13,3    0
Bott     21,3     16,5    0
Sain     19,9     14,3    0
Stro     16,0      7,9    0
Hami     14,3     13,1    0
Ocon     11,0      7,8    0
Lecl     10,7      7,5    0
Albo      9,3      7,3    0
Ricc      8,3      6,0    0
Vers      7,0      5,6    0
Kvya      5,4      2,9    0
Vett      0,7      0,5    0
Norris is marching on at a devastating rate.

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2019 this is 23.


Guesses on P1-P5:
Hamilton               Bottas                 Verstappen             Albon                  Norris              
* Potential     362    * Potential     368    * Potential     340    * Potential     337    * Potential     350
Makarias        282    * Forecast      323    Bleu            267    SpaceHorseParty 164    * Forecast      188
thegforcemaybewi280    Kev00           260    Marklar         255    f1paul          162    M2000-5          74
GTA             278    jjcale          224    M2000-5         229    Marklar         152    Brawn BGP 001    60
* Forecast      278    SpaceHorseParty 222    Brawn BGP 001   226    KWSN-DSM        139    f1paul           56
jjcale          276    DutchQuicksilver218    f1paul          222    M2000-5         138    scheivlak        54
Brawn BGP 001   275    GTA             208    thequadge       220    GTA             136    Bleu             52
M2000-5         275    Marklar         208    GTA             218    Makarias        130    SpaceHorseParty  51
DutchQuicksilver273    Makarias        206    scheivlak       215    Bleu            126    KWSN-DSM         50
KWSN-DSM        271    Bleu            204    fisichella_2001 213    mark f1         126    fisichella_2001  44
SpaceHorseParty 261    thegforcemaybewi198    DutchQuicksilver209    Kev00           124    Kev00            44
scheivlak       256    Brawn BGP 001   193    mark f1         205    fisichella_2001 119    GTA              41
Bleu            252    mark f1         191    SpaceHorseParty 205    Brawn BGP 001   117    mark f1          41
Kev00           252    scheivlak       191    Makarias        203    DutchQuicksilver116    thequadge        41
Marklar         250    M2000-5         189    Kev00           198    scheivlak       112    Makarias         37
fisichella_2001 249    thequadge       187    thegforcemaybewi198    thequadge       112    jjcale           35
mark f1         249    fisichella_2001 185    jjcale          190    thegforcemaybewi109    Marklar          35
f1paul          214    KWSN-DSM        177    KWSN-DSM        185    jjcale          100    DutchQuicksilver 34
thequadge       212    f1paul          173    * Forecast      113    * Forecast       90    thegforcemaybewi 33
* Current        37    * Current        43    * Current        15    * Current        12    * Current        25
Very exciting

Guesses on P6-P10:
Perez                  Stroll                 Ricciardo              Sainz                  Kvyat               
* Potential     341    * Potential     331    * Potential     329    * Potential     337    * Potential     326
* Forecast      120    SpaceHorseParty  75    f1paul           66    * Forecast       90    scheivlak        33
jjcale           97    jjcale           69    thequadge        63    Brawn BGP 001    83    thegforcemaybewi 27
SpaceHorseParty  92    Kev00            57    SpaceHorseParty  60    M2000-5          81    jjcale           26
Kev00            74    M2000-5          47    Brawn BGP 001    58    f1paul           74    mark f1          24
Bleu             73    KWSN-DSM         45    scheivlak        56    fisichella_2001  71    SpaceHorseParty  20
KWSN-DSM         72    * Forecast       45    KWSN-DSM         53    Bleu             70    fisichella_2001  19
Makarias         72    GTA              44    fisichella_2001  50    scheivlak        64    Kev00            18
DutchQuicksilver 70    mark f1          37    Makarias         48    SpaceHorseParty  64    f1paul           17
M2000-5          70    thegforcemaybewi 34    mark f1          48    Kev00            63    KWSN-DSM         17
GTA              69    scheivlak        32    Marklar          46    KWSN-DSM         61    M2000-5          17
scheivlak        68    Brawn BGP 001    30    M2000-5          45    Marklar          54    Bleu             16
Marklar          64    DutchQuicksilver 29    Bleu             42    Makarias         52    DutchQuicksilver 16
f1paul           61    fisichella_2001  27    thegforcemaybewi 42    mark f1          51    GTA              16
thequadge        59    Makarias         27    DutchQuicksilver 40    thequadge        51    Marklar          16
mark f1          58    f1paul           26    GTA              40    GTA              49    Brawn BGP 001    14
Brawn BGP 001    54    Marklar          26    Kev00            36    DutchQuicksilver 47    Makarias         10
thegforcemaybewi 51    thequadge        23    jjcale           31    jjcale           46    thequadge        10
fisichella_2001  46    Bleu              8    * Forecast       30    thegforcemaybewi 44    * Forecast        8
* Current        16    * Current         6    * Current         4    * Current        12    * Current         1
The Racing Points will be a bag of trouble for some of us.

The PTPC forecast
Will appear after the 70th anniversary GP.

#3 Makarias

Makarias
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  • 10,715 posts
  • Joined: December 98

Posted 22 July 2020 - 19:45

The standings after Hungary:

Pos Name                  Tot Latest
1)  Brawn BGP 001         303 101
=   DutchQuicksilver      303 101
=   f1paul                303 101
=   fisichella_2001       303 101
=   GTA                   303 101
=   jjcale                303 101
=   Kev00                 303 101
=   KWSN-DSM              303 101
=   M2000-5               303 101
=   Makarias              303 101
=   mark f1               303 101
=   Marklar               303 101
=   scheivlak             303 101
=   SpaceHorseParty       303 101
=   thegforcemaybewithyou 303 101
=   thequadge             303 101
17) Bleu                  293  91
Carnage and mayhem! Bleu has underestimated Stroll and is falling behind after being the alphabetical leader over the first two rounds.

The entries
 
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect  Surprise Beat
           %        %     #
Norr     54,3     33,3    0
Stro     48,1     23,7    1
Pere     32,5     22,4    0
Bott     28,7     22,2    0
Hami     23,9     21,9    0
Sain     23,2     16,7    0
Giov     22,7     11,8    0
Gasl     21,5     13,3    0
Albo     17,1     13,3    0
Ricc     16,5     11,9    0
Vers     15,3     12,3    0
Ocon     11,0      7,8    0
Lecl     10,7      7,5    0
Magn      8,5      2,7    0
Vett      6,0      4,9    0
Kvya      5,4      2,9    0
Stroll holding Bleu's scalp for everyone to be seen, such a barbaric rite.

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2019 this is 23.


Guesses on P1-P5:
Hamilton               Verstappen             Bottas                 Stroll                 Albon               
* Potential     362    * Potential     333    * Potential     358    * Potential     318    * Potential     322
* Forecast      310    Bleu            267    * Forecast      290    * Forecast       90    SpaceHorseParty 164
Makarias        282    Marklar         255    Kev00           260    SpaceHorseParty  75    f1paul          162
thegforcemaybewi280    M2000-5         229    jjcale          224    jjcale           69    Marklar         152
GTA             278    Brawn BGP 001   226    SpaceHorseParty 222    Kev00            57    KWSN-DSM        139
jjcale          276    f1paul          222    DutchQuicksilver218    M2000-5          47    M2000-5         138
Brawn BGP 001   275    thequadge       220    GTA             208    KWSN-DSM         45    GTA             136
M2000-5         275    GTA             218    Marklar         208    GTA              44    Makarias        130
DutchQuicksilver273    scheivlak       215    Makarias        206    mark f1          37    Bleu            126
KWSN-DSM        271    fisichella_2001 213    Bleu            204    thegforcemaybewi 34    mark f1         126
SpaceHorseParty 261    DutchQuicksilver209    thegforcemaybewi198    scheivlak        32    Kev00           124
scheivlak       256    mark f1         205    Brawn BGP 001   193    Brawn BGP 001    30    fisichella_2001 119
Bleu            252    SpaceHorseParty 205    mark f1         191    DutchQuicksilver 29    Brawn BGP 001   117
Kev00           252    Makarias        203    scheivlak       191    fisichella_2001  27    DutchQuicksilver116
Marklar         250    Kev00           198    M2000-5         189    Makarias         27    scheivlak       112
fisichella_2001 249    thegforcemaybewi198    thequadge       187    f1paul           26    thequadge       112
mark f1         249    jjcale          190    fisichella_2001 185    Marklar          26    * Forecast      110
f1paul          214    KWSN-DSM        185    KWSN-DSM        177    thequadge        23    thegforcemaybewi109
thequadge       212    * Forecast      165    f1paul          173    * Current        18    jjcale          100
* Current        62    * Current        33    * Current        58    Bleu              8    * Current        22
Stroll can beat more guesses very soon.

Guesses on P6-P10:
Vettel                 Perez                  Ricciardo              Sainz                  Magnussen           
* Potential     309    * Potential     322    * Potential     308    * Potential     314    * Potential     301
thegforcemaybewi181    * Forecast      110    f1paul           66    Brawn BGP 001    83    KWSN-DSM         36
fisichella_2001 172    jjcale           97    thequadge        63    M2000-5          81    DutchQuicksilver 21
Makarias        170    SpaceHorseParty  92    SpaceHorseParty  60    f1paul           74    mark f1          17
thequadge       169    Kev00            74    Brawn BGP 001    58    fisichella_2001  71    thegforcemaybewi 15
mark f1         167    Bleu             73    scheivlak        56    * Forecast       70    jjcale           14
f1paul          164    KWSN-DSM         72    KWSN-DSM         53    Bleu             70    Marklar          13
DutchQuicksilver161    Makarias         72    fisichella_2001  50    scheivlak        64    GTA              12
Marklar         159    DutchQuicksilver 70    Makarias         48    SpaceHorseParty  64    Makarias         12
Bleu            153    M2000-5          70    mark f1          48    Kev00            63    scheivlak        12
GTA             153    GTA              69    Marklar          46    KWSN-DSM         61    fisichella_2001   9
KWSN-DSM        150    scheivlak        68    M2000-5          45    Marklar          54    f1paul            8
Brawn BGP 001   144    Marklar          64    Bleu             42    Makarias         52    SpaceHorseParty   8
jjcale          142    f1paul           61    thegforcemaybewi 42    mark f1          51    Kev00             7
Kev00           137    thequadge        59    DutchQuicksilver 40    thequadge        51    thequadge         6
M2000-5         125    mark f1          58    GTA              40    GTA              49    Bleu              5
scheivlak       121    Brawn BGP 001    54    * Forecast       40    DutchQuicksilver 47    * Forecast        5
SpaceHorseParty  71    thegforcemaybewi 51    Kev00            36    jjcale           46    M2000-5           3
* Forecast       45    fisichella_2001  46    jjcale           31    thegforcemaybewi 44    Brawn BGP 001     2
* Current         9    * Current        22    * Current         8    * Current        14    * Current         1
Dramatic improvements needed at Ferrari!

The PTPC forecast
Will appear after the 70th anniversary GP.