The standings after Austria:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) Everyone 101 101
I've been slow with posting these interesting results because as long as we don't know how long the season will be, we don't even know what our entries are!
For now I'm working on the rather shaky assumption that the season will be 15 races long, as I read on Wikipedia that this is Ross Brawn's goal. And I'm a Brawn believer.
The entries
The following list shows the maximum, average ("popularity poll") and minimum bets on each driver. Column "Diff" is Popularity Poll difference to 2019, when there were 21 races.
Name Max Pop Min Diff Hami 282 259 212 - 65 Vers 267 215 185 - 35 Bott 260 202 173 - 13 Lecl 239 168 128 -115 Vett 181 149 71 -189 Albo 164 128 100 +110 Pere 97 68 46 + 29 Sain 83 60 44 + 15 Ricc 66 49 31 - 44 Norr 74 46 33 + 16 Stro 75 37 8 + 17 Ocon 50 36 20 + 36 Gasl 44 28 12 -127 Räik 34 20 7 - 37 Kvya 33 19 10 - 2 Magn 36 12 2 - 44 Giov 16 9 5 - 25 Gros 14 7 1 - 54 Russ 7 2 0 +- 0 Lati 3 1 0 + 1
Popularity Poll WCC prediction:
Team Pts Diff Merc 461 - 78 RBR 343 - 62 Ferr 317 -304 McLa 106 + 31 RPoi 105 + 46 Rena 85 - 87 ATau 47 + 8 Alfa 29 - 62 Haas 19 - 98 Will 3 +- 0
Ferrari got WCC hype prior to the 2019 season, not so anymore. McLaren vs Racing Point predicted to be close!
If the Popularity Poll turns out to be a 100% correct prediction, the final standings would look like this:
Pos Name Tot 1) GTA 1458 2) mark f1 1457 3) DutchQuicksilver 1449 4) scheivlak 1447 5) Makarias 1440 6) fisichella_2001 1438 7) KWSN-DSM 1432 8) Brawn BGP 001 1431 9) Marklar 1428 10) Bleu 1427 11) Kev00 1422 12) M2000-5 1414 13) thegforcemaybewithyou1408 14) jjcale 1392 15) f1paul 1389 16) thequadge 1385 17) SpaceHorseParty 1368
How many players have guessed each driver for WDC?
Driver Players Hami 12 Vers 3 Bott 1 Lecl 1
Teammate battles: Which driver is expected to outscore his teammate?
Owner Owned <- = -> Pere 17 0 0 Stro Ricc 17 0 0 Ocon Sain 17 0 0 Norr Vers 17 0 0 Albo Gasl 16 0 1 Kvya Hami 16 0 1 Bott Magn 16 0 1 Gros Räik 16 0 1 Giov Lecl 13 1 3 Vett Russ 12 5 0 Lati
Each team has a clear favourite this year.
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Norr 32,6 20,0 0 Giov 22,7 11,8 0 Gasl 21,5 13,3 0 Sain 16,6 11,9 0 Bott 12,4 9,6 0 Pere 11,8 8,2 0 Ocon 11,0 7,8 0 Lecl 10,7 7,5 0 Hami 4,6 4,2 0 Vett 0,7 0,5 0
Interesting start!
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2019 this is 23.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Bottas Leclerc Norris Hamilton Sainz * Forecast 375 * Potential 368 * Potential 365 * Potential 362 * Potential 360 * Potential 375 * Forecast 270 * Forecast 225 Makarias 282 * Forecast 150 Kev00 260 thequadge 239 M2000-5 74 thegforcemaybewi280 Brawn BGP 001 83 jjcale 224 fisichella_2001 193 Brawn BGP 001 60 GTA 278 M2000-5 81 SpaceHorseParty 222 Makarias 187 f1paul 56 jjcale 276 f1paul 74 DutchQuicksilver218 thegforcemaybewi181 scheivlak 54 Brawn BGP 001 275 fisichella_2001 71 GTA 208 Bleu 177 Bleu 52 M2000-5 275 Bleu 70 Marklar 208 DutchQuicksilver171 SpaceHorseParty 51 DutchQuicksilver273 scheivlak 64 Makarias 206 Brawn BGP 001 170 KWSN-DSM 50 KWSN-DSM 271 SpaceHorseParty 64 Bleu 204 mark f1 170 fisichella_2001 44 SpaceHorseParty 261 Kev00 63 thegforcemaybewi198 GTA 164 Kev00 44 scheivlak 256 KWSN-DSM 61 Brawn BGP 001 193 scheivlak 164 GTA 41 Bleu 252 Marklar 54 mark f1 191 jjcale 158 mark f1 41 Kev00 252 Makarias 52 scheivlak 191 Kev00 156 thequadge 41 Marklar 250 mark f1 51 M2000-5 189 Marklar 154 Makarias 37 fisichella_2001 249 thequadge 51 thequadge 187 f1paul 151 jjcale 35 mark f1 249 GTA 49 fisichella_2001 185 M2000-5 151 Marklar 35 f1paul 214 DutchQuicksilver 47 KWSN-DSM 177 KWSN-DSM 149 DutchQuicksilver 34 thequadge 212 jjcale 46 f1paul 173 SpaceHorseParty 128 thegforcemaybewi 33 * Forecast 180 thegforcemaybewi 44 * Current 25 * Current 18 * Current 15 * Current 12 * Current 10
Betting low on Norris feels pretty bad for now.
Guesses on P6-P10:
Perez Gasly Ocon Giovinazzi Vettel * Potential 358 * Potential 356 * Potential 354 * Potential 352 * Potential 351 * Forecast 120 * Forecast 90 * Forecast 60 * Forecast 30 thegforcemaybewi181 jjcale 97 scheivlak 44 f1paul 50 GTA 16 fisichella_2001 172 SpaceHorseParty 92 thegforcemaybewi 41 Brawn BGP 001 44 fisichella_2001 15 Makarias 170 Kev00 74 Kev00 34 KWSN-DSM 43 jjcale 13 thequadge 169 Bleu 73 KWSN-DSM 34 scheivlak 43 f1paul 10 mark f1 167 KWSN-DSM 72 jjcale 32 thequadge 43 mark f1 10 f1paul 164 Makarias 72 mark f1 31 SpaceHorseParty 42 thegforcemaybewi 10 DutchQuicksilver161 DutchQuicksilver 70 GTA 30 mark f1 41 Makarias 9 Marklar 159 M2000-5 70 fisichella_2001 28 Marklar 39 thequadge 9 Bleu 153 GTA 69 SpaceHorseParty 28 fisichella_2001 38 DutchQuicksilver 8 GTA 153 scheivlak 68 thequadge 28 DutchQuicksilver 37 Kev00 8 KWSN-DSM 150 Marklar 64 DutchQuicksilver 27 Bleu 33 scheivlak 8 Brawn BGP 001 144 f1paul 61 Brawn BGP 001 24 M2000-5 33 KWSN-DSM 7 jjcale 142 thequadge 59 M2000-5 22 Kev00 29 Bleu 6 Kev00 137 mark f1 58 f1paul 20 Makarias 29 SpaceHorseParty 6 M2000-5 125 Brawn BGP 001 54 Makarias 20 jjcale 26 Brawn BGP 001 5 scheivlak 121 thegforcemaybewi 51 Marklar 20 thegforcemaybewi 26 M2000-5 5 SpaceHorseParty 71 fisichella_2001 46 Bleu 12 GTA 20 Marklar 5 * Forecast 15 * Current 8 * Current 6 * Current 4 * Current 2 * Current 1
Your entries in these lists are scaled and rounded off for a 15 race season, so it might all seem strange to all but SpaceHorseParty who did post a 1515 point entry.
The PTPC forecast
Will appear after the 70th anniversary GP.
Edited by Makarias, 22 July 2020 - 19:44.
