The standings after Belgium:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) Kev00 701 101 = KWSN-DSM 701 101 = M2000-5 701 101 = mark f1 701 101 = SpaceHorseParty 701 101 6) GTA 698 98 7) jjcale 696 96 8) scheivlak 695 99 9) Brawn BGP 001 693 99 10) thegforcemaybewithyou 692 93 11) fisichella_2001 690 99 12) f1paul 688 99 = Makarias 688 97 14) DutchQuicksilver 687 94 15) Marklar 685 95 = thequadge 685 99 17) Bleu 664 95I've had to re-scale all entries for a 17-race season. The "latest" scores above are based on these entries and may not match up with old scores reported earlier.
The entries
The following list shows the maximum, average ("popularity poll") and minimum bets on each driver. Column "Diff" is Popularity Poll difference to 2019, when there were 21 races.
Name Max Pop Min Diff Hami 320 293 240 - 31 Vers 302 244 210 - 6 Bott 294 229 196 + 14 Lecl 271 191 145 - 92 Vett 205 169 80 -169 Albo 186 146 114 +128 Pere 110 77 52 + 38 Sain 94 68 50 + 23 Ricc 75 55 35 - 38 Norr 84 52 38 + 22 Stro 85 42 9 + 22 Ocon 56 41 23 + 41 Gasl 50 32 14 -123 Räik 39 22 8 - 35 Kvya 37 21 12 +- 0 Magn 41 13 2 - 43 Giov 19 10 5 - 24 Gros 15 8 1 - 53 Russ 8 3 0 + 1 Lati 3 1 0 + 1
Popularity Poll WCC prediction:
Team Pts Diff Merc 522 - 17 RBR 390 - 15 Ferr 360 -261 McLa 120 + 45 RPoi 119 + 60 Rena 96 - 76 ATau 53 + 14 Alfa 32 - 59 Haas 21 - 96 Will 4 + 1
If the Popularity Poll turns out to be a 100% correct prediction (it won't), the final standings would look like this:
Pos Name Tot 1) GTA 1652 2) mark f1 1650 3) DutchQuicksilver 1641 4) scheivlak 1637 5) Makarias 1631 6) fisichella_2001 1629 7) Brawn BGP 001 1623 8) KWSN-DSM 1622 9) Bleu 1619 = Marklar 1619 11) Kev00 1612 12) M2000-5 1603 13) thegforcemaybewithyou1595 14) jjcale 1577 15) f1paul 1574 16) thequadge 1570 17) SpaceHorseParty 1549
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Hülk INF 600,0 17 Stro 98,8 48,8 11 Norr 84,4 51,8 8 Ocon 63,4 45,6 1 Ricc 58,4 42,1 1 Gasl 56,6 35,3 1 Hami 52,8 48,3 0 Bott 46,3 35,9 0 Vers 44,7 36,0 0 Pere 43,0 29,7 0 Albo 32,9 25,7 0 Sain 32,2 23,2 0 Lecl 23,6 16,5 0 Giov 19,9 10,0 0 Vett 9,5 7,8 0 Kvya 9,4 5,3 0 Magn 7,5 2,4 0With the recalculated entries you need more points to beat expectations and guesses, so suddenly Lance Stroll hasn't beaten his expectations yet. Maybe at Monza?
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2019 this is 23.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Hamilton Bottas Verstappen Ricciardo Ocon * Potential 405 * Potential 356 * Potential 359 * Potential 282 * Potential 276 * Forecast 376 Kev00 294 Bleu 302 * Forecast 78 * Forecast 63 Makarias 320 * Forecast 257 Marklar 289 f1paul 75 f1paul 56 thegforcemaybewi317 jjcale 254 * Forecast 265 thequadge 71 Brawn BGP 001 49 GTA 315 SpaceHorseParty 252 M2000-5 260 SpaceHorseParty 68 KWSN-DSM 49 jjcale 313 DutchQuicksilver247 Brawn BGP 001 257 Brawn BGP 001 66 scheivlak 49 Brawn BGP 001 312 GTA 236 f1paul 251 scheivlak 63 thequadge 49 M2000-5 311 Marklar 236 thequadge 249 KWSN-DSM 60 SpaceHorseParty 48 DutchQuicksilver310 Makarias 233 GTA 247 fisichella_2001 56 mark f1 46 KWSN-DSM 307 Bleu 232 scheivlak 243 Makarias 54 Marklar 44 SpaceHorseParty 296 thegforcemaybewi224 fisichella_2001 242 mark f1 54 fisichella_2001 43 scheivlak 290 Brawn BGP 001 219 DutchQuicksilver237 Marklar 52 DutchQuicksilver 42 Bleu 285 mark f1 216 mark f1 232 M2000-5 51 Bleu 38 Kev00 285 scheivlak 216 SpaceHorseParty 232 Bleu 48 M2000-5 37 Marklar 283 M2000-5 214 Makarias 230 thegforcemaybewi 48 Kev00 33 fisichella_2001 282 thequadge 212 Kev00 225 DutchQuicksilver 45 Makarias 32 mark f1 282 fisichella_2001 209 thegforcemaybewi224 GTA 45 jjcale 30 f1paul 242 KWSN-DSM 200 jjcale 215 Kev00 40 thegforcemaybewi 29 thequadge 240 f1paul 196 KWSN-DSM 210 jjcale 35 * Current 26 * Current 155 * Current 106 * Current 109 * Current 32 GTA 23Here you can see some of your recalculated guesses. See how they shimmer under soft lighting.
Guesses on P6-P10:
Albon Norris Gasly Stroll Perez * Potential 298 * Potential 294 * Potential 268 * Potential 292 * Potential 283 SpaceHorseParty 186 * Forecast 107 scheivlak 50 * Forecast 102 jjcale 110 f1paul 184 M2000-5 84 thegforcemaybewi 46 SpaceHorseParty 85 SpaceHorseParty 104 Marklar 173 Brawn BGP 001 68 * Forecast 44 jjcale 78 Kev00 84 KWSN-DSM 158 f1paul 63 Kev00 39 Kev00 65 Bleu 82 M2000-5 157 scheivlak 62 KWSN-DSM 39 M2000-5 53 Makarias 82 GTA 155 Bleu 59 jjcale 36 KWSN-DSM 51 KWSN-DSM 81 Makarias 148 SpaceHorseParty 58 mark f1 35 GTA 50 DutchQuicksilver 80 Bleu 143 KWSN-DSM 57 GTA 34 mark f1 43 * Forecast 80 mark f1 143 Kev00 50 fisichella_2001 32 * Current 42 M2000-5 79 Kev00 141 fisichella_2001 49 SpaceHorseParty 32 thegforcemaybewi 39 GTA 78 fisichella_2001 134 GTA 46 thequadge 32 scheivlak 36 scheivlak 77 Brawn BGP 001 132 mark f1 46 DutchQuicksilver 30 Brawn BGP 001 34 Marklar 72 DutchQuicksilver131 thequadge 46 Brawn BGP 001 28 DutchQuicksilver 33 f1paul 70 scheivlak 128 * Current 44 M2000-5 26 fisichella_2001 31 thequadge 67 thequadge 127 Makarias 42 f1paul 23 Makarias 31 mark f1 66 thegforcemaybewi124 Marklar 40 Marklar 23 Marklar 30 Brawn BGP 001 62 * Forecast 117 DutchQuicksilver 39 Makarias 22 f1paul 29 thegforcemaybewi 58 jjcale 114 jjcale 39 * Current 18 thequadge 26 fisichella_2001 52 * Current 48 thegforcemaybewi 38 Bleu 14 Bleu 9 * Current 33The difference to the previously posted guesses in these columns is roughly a 13% increase, ie going to 17 races from 15.
The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/- SpaceHorseParty 1481,4 -26,2 M2000-5 1445,3 -31,7 Brawn BGP 001 1424,9 -19,0 scheivlak 1410,0 -18,3 jjcale 1406,4 -31,9 Kev00 1404,9 -28,1 GTA 1404,3 -26,0 DutchQuicksilver 1392,9 -23,5 KWSN-DSM 1383,4 -26,2 Marklar 1375,0 -32,7 Makarias 1374,4 -30,9 Bleu 1360,1 -35,9 mark f1 1350,3 -27,4 thegforcemaybewithyou1347,6 -19,4 f1paul 1335,3 -3,4 fisichella_2001 1326,3 -32,4 thequadge 1322,3 -10,0Forecasts took a hit from the crappy result for Ferrari.
