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2020 Portuguese GP race thread [start 13:10 GMT / 14:10 CET]


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Poll: Portuguese GP (78 member(s) have cast votes)

Race winner?

  1. Hamilton - 92 not out (64 votes [82.05%])

    Percentage of vote: 82.05%

  2. Bottas - bouncebackability (5 votes [6.41%])

    Percentage of vote: 6.41%

  3. Verstappen - always in the mix (5 votes [6.41%])

    Percentage of vote: 6.41%

  4. Someone else - really? (4 votes [5.13%])

    Percentage of vote: 5.13%

Best of the rest?

  1. Leclerc - qualifying king (19 votes [24.36%])

    Percentage of vote: 24.36%

  2. Perez - 16th consecutive points finish (31 votes [39.74%])

    Percentage of vote: 39.74%

  3. Albon - last chance saloon (3 votes [3.85%])

    Percentage of vote: 3.85%

  4. Sainz - as smooth as the new tarmac (9 votes [11.54%])

    Percentage of vote: 11.54%

  5. Norris - like a rollercoaster (4 votes [5.13%])

    Percentage of vote: 5.13%

  6. Gasly - literally on fire (5 votes [6.41%])

    Percentage of vote: 6.41%

  7. Ricciardo - something something tattoo (4 votes [5.13%])

    Percentage of vote: 5.13%

  8. Someone else - who?! (3 votes [3.85%])

    Percentage of vote: 3.85%

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#1 TomNokoe

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 00:45

The clocks have gone back one whole hour, but you'll have to go back 24 years to find the last Portuguese Grand Prix. A plucky Brit on pole, and another front-row lockout for F1's dominant force. "Já visto!" the locals may cry, but there's plenty of intrigue under the surface.

 

922674a4ec1bde1ada928be2cdb77607.jpg

 

The teams are short on long-run data, nobody knows what the tyres are going to do, the wind is swirling, the temperatures are dropping, the dirty side of the grid is really dirty, and we've got 66 laps ahead of us. It's the puzzling, promising and no less popular Portimao setting for this afternoon's race. Will there be P for precipitation?  ;)

 

Another step into the unknown at a new addition to the calendar. If Mugello and Nurburg are anything to go by, we should be in for a fun race. It's Round 12, the Portuguese Grand Prix.

 

Race.jpg

 

The Grid and The Start

 

GridPort.png

 

The even-numbered drivers are going to struggle on the scarely used inside tarmac. We could see big gains from Verstappen, Perez and Sainz. Albon will need to make sure his race gets off to a better start than it did in Germany. Leclerc will surely be fighting for all he's worth to defend his terrific P4 grid slot.

 

It's a 400m run into the quick, single-file turn 1. We've already had track limit excursions and even a crash in Friday practice, so it will be a hairy place to be at lights out, especially on cold tyres.

 

Hamilton, Bottas and Leclerc all start on the MEDIUM tyre, making life even more difficult.

 

Tyres and Strategy

 

After a truncated series of practice sessions, a tricky track surface, and ever-changing weather conditions, it's very difficult to know how the tyres will fare over a race distance. Will we see a graining-induced two stop, or will the tyre management be good enough for the standard one-stop? Will the undercut be neutralised by the slow warm-up? Pirelli are puzzled, and so are we.

 

Strategy.jpg

 

Tyres.jpg

 

There's a bit of variation in the tyres remaining. Mercedes and Leclerc have a new Soft in their back pocket, Verstappen and most of the midfield a new Medium. Tyre choice from outside the top 10 will be crucial. Ocon, Stroll and Kvyat could play themselves into a good position. Vettel is stuck in-between a rock and a hard place having already burnt through the edge of both new Mediums in Q2.

 

Weather

 

Weather.gif

 

There's an outside chance of rain, although it's forecast after the race. Nevertheless, it will be overcast, mild, and blustery. Totally different to Friday and Saturday. We've already seen how this can affect balance and tyres. It will be a tricky afternoon for the drivers. Hopefully, not too tricky, Damon.

 

DL9gkMZXkAAQj6Y.jpg

 

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Look out! The race starts one hour earlier than normal, just like last week.

 

Timezones.jpg

 

-

 

Will it be another Mercedes procession up front, or can Verstappen get involved on lap 1? Leclerc will fight hard to keep his P4, but he'll have the rejuvenated Perez behind him, sniffing for another podium shot. McLaren just want a solid points haul, something Albon probably can't afford. Gasly needs to make up for an anti-climatic Q3, and Ricciardo an uncharacteristic error. Ocon should follow his teammate and challenge the orange cars. Stroll and Vettel need to fight back after being outshone on Saturday. Kvyat, the forgotten man, needs a performance to remember. Russell will be aiming to make progress on lap 1, and hoping not to connect with Kimi again. Grosjean and Magnussen will surely race hard now their futures have been set. Finally, Latifi, bringing up the rear, the best seat in this house, watching it all unfold before his eyes.

 

-

 

Surprise, a poll! See you in 12 hours  ;)

 

(and I've only just spotted the car flipping at the start from 1995... who is that?!)

 


Edited by TomNokoe, 25 October 2020 - 10:15.


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#2 FLB

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 00:51

The clocks have gone back one whole hour, but you'll have to go back 24 years to find the last Portuguese Grand Prix. A plucky Brit on pole, and another front-row lockout for F1's dominant force. "Já visto!" the locals may cry, but there's plenty of intrigue under the surface.

 

922674a4ec1bde1ada928be2cdb77607.jpg

 

 

 

(and I've only just spotted the car flipping at the start from 1996... who is that?!)

1995 Ukyo Katayama.



#3 TomNokoe

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 00:53

Oh no, the wrong year :lol: never mind, I'll leave it in!



#4 w1Y

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 06:29

I expect the mediums won't fire up and max will be all over the mercy. If mercs stay ahead then I expect at some point during the first stint they will maintain pace and max will drop off.

I'm never quote sure that starting on mediums means you run a different strategy other than the starting tyre. Because of the undercut you try and run a faster average pace and then stop for hards as soon a max does.

Unless max can run the tyres long to put on the mediums. Then you need to build a big enough gap

#5 sportyskells

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 07:06

I have a feeling we might see the safety car if we go by other races that has happen in the past at this track

#6 w1Y

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 07:13

I have a feeling we might see the safety car if we go by other races that has happen in the past at this track


We will lose at least 10 laps due to sc

#7 JeePee

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 07:20

Does this track have the dirtiest side ever? Would be suprised if Bottas doesn't lose a place to Max at the start.



#8 Bleu

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 07:25

Does this track have the dirtiest side ever? Would be suprised if Bottas doesn't lose a place to Max at the start.

 

Hungarian GP 2003. First corner order by grid position: 1, 3, 5, 7.



#9 Ev0d3vil

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 07:28

Rain for today? Any chance ?



#10 JRodrigues

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 07:41

1995 Ukyo Katayama.

 

Yes! The only F1 race I've been to, so good memories for me  :cool:



#11 Peat

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 07:46

It's an amazing picture. 



#12 Ali623

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 07:51

Rain for today? Any chance ?


Yeah around 6pm, after the race.

#13 TauriJ

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 07:51

Rain for today? Any chance ?


Almost certainly, but after the race.

#14 messy

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 07:58

I suspect it’ll all hinge on the start and that seems to favour Lewis doesn’t it. Bottas has looked good all weekend and if he can somehow find a way to get track position this might be one of the races where he looks for all the world like a Hamilton match - but given that he’s apparently starting on a bed of marbles I kinda don’t think that’s going to happen. So win 92 for Hamilton it is, with Max shadowing him at a respectful distance all the way, just like most races in 2020 in fact.

I think the excitement is going to probably come from an accident or two from the midfield and a couple of safety cars.

I’d love to see Leclerc have a good race though. He’s driving like a man possessed this year.

Edited by messy, 25 October 2020 - 08:00.


#15 OO7

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 08:37

How many cars will be off track through T1 at the start?  Answers on a postcard.



#16 TheFish

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 08:53

Some rain for the last 10 laps could be a lot of fun

#17 Burtros

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 09:07

Let’s just be honest with ourselves!

It won’t rain, and Mercedes will win.

Hoping for a good race behind the front of the pack.

#18 noikeee

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 09:14

"Já visto!" the locals may cry,


Or maybe they won't, because that's a strange Google translation :p

#19 TomNokoe

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 10:16

Or maybe they won't, because that's a strange Google translation :p

DEJA VU :D



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#20 thegamer23

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 10:18

I see 60-70% rain chance on Weather.com



#21 ANF

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 10:28

I hope we don't have to see any stationary cars in the middle of the track at one of the blind sections, like in ELMS last year.



#22 TomNokoe

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 10:30

@fergieweather
SUNDAY OUTLOOK: Increasingly cloudy & windier into race window, suppressing track temp in 20's C; WSW wind gusting towards ~30mph. Risk of rain grows post-3pm, but some light rain is not impossible, esp later in race (40% chance).



#23 Goron3

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 10:31

What was track temperature yesterday? Could pose a real issue even if it doesn't rain.

#24 thegamer23

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 10:32

@fergieweather
SUNDAY OUTLOOK: Increasingly cloudy & windier into race window, suppressing track temp in 20's C; WSW wind gusting towards ~30mph. Risk of rain grows post-3pm, but some light rain is not impossible, esp later in race (40% chance).

Ok, no rain than  :lol:



#25 Marklar

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 10:34

40 % is just their default guess, it's getting old

#26 Bleu

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 10:55

They can also say it's less likely to rain than it is to rain.

 

However by simple maths in two races with 40% rain chance:

 

16% it rains in both

48% it rains in one

36% it rains in neither



#27 noikeee

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 10:57

DEJA VU :D


We just say "deja vu" too. :D

Meanwhile, just reminding everyone that I've set up that Discord thing if you guys want to chat during the race: https://discord.gg/VwWazcH

#28 Astandahl

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 11:23

There is a lot of wind.



#29 TauriJ

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 11:23

Wow it looks very windy :drunk:



#30 MJB5990

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 11:33

I don’t understand the idea that Valtteri lead every session. Lewis was P1 in Q1.

#31 jonpollak

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 11:39

We just say "deja vu" too. :D

Meanwhile, just reminding everyone that I've set up that Discord thing if you guys want to chat during the race: https://discord.gg/VwWazcH

Isn't this place basically a chat box?

Jp



#32 milestone 11

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 11:46

Can't get on to your Discord room Noikeee. Need an app from Google play which is not possible on Kindle.

#33 Spyker

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 11:47

I don’t understand the idea that Valtteri lead every session. Lewis was P1 in Q1.

This! I keep hearing it, and I don't get what the commentary team are on about.

 

Bottas was 3rd in Q1, and Ham was purple until his lap was destroyed in Q2, then he went again to put in a banker. They didn't set a time on their second runs.



#34 ExFlagMan

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 11:47

There is a lot of wind.

 

Is that a description of this forum at times?



#35 hamilton10000

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 11:48

This! I keep hearing it, and I don't get what the commentary team are on about.

Bottas was 3rd in Q1, and Ham was purple until his lap was destroyed in Q2, then he went again to put in a banker. They didn't set a time on their second runs.


I think it's just lazy reporting which helps with their narrative.

#36 Marklar

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 11:53

This! I keep hearing it, and I don't get what the commentary team are on about.

Bottas was 3rd in Q1, and Ham was purple until his lap was destroyed in Q2, then he went again to put in a banker. They didn't set a time on their second runs.

Also fuel adjusted Hamilton's first (I mean the first of his 2nd) Q3 run was probably as quick, if not quicker, than Bottas.

This didnt came anywhere near as out of nowhere as everyone made it out to be.

Edited by Marklar, 25 October 2020 - 11:54.


#37 thegamer23

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 11:55

Turn 1 is going to be fun, very fast for a first corner.

 



#38 Pimpwerx

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 11:59

How did Albon burn through all of his new tires? Is that graphic an error? Already down on pace, he's now carrying another handicap into the race. SMDH.



#39 gillesfan76

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 12:20

The clocks have gone back one whole hour, but you'll have to go back 24 years to find the last Portuguese Grand Prix.

 

Good work Tom, fantastic starting post!



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#40 dissident

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 12:32

Rain band edging closer to the track, there's still hope. 



#41 gillesfan76

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 12:33

Hope for a washed out race with 90% of it run behind SC and the other 10% being red flag? Ok



#42 TomNokoe

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 12:34

Ted says no practice starts allowed because the pit exit is too narrow.

#43 MJB5990

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 12:34

I'm quite optimistic for a good race today.

I think there will be mistakes, undercut and overcut attempts. The rain will also be a constant threat.

FP2 was also start-stop, I think there's promise for an exciting race.

#44 TomNokoe

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 12:36

Verstappen struggling on recon laps. Vettel says it's like driving on ice.

#45 MJB5990

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 12:37

DAS might help Mercedes here?

#46 TomNokoe

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 12:44

Ted says no practice starts allowed because the pit exit is too narrow.


Perez on team radio says multiple drivers have done practice starts. He mentioned McLaren. His engineer says it's being reported.

Edited by TomNokoe, 25 October 2020 - 12:49.


#47 gillesfan76

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 12:45

Verstappen struggling on recon laps. Vettel says it's like driving on ice.

 

So too Lewis. Locked up quite badly and came on the radio saying “It’s super tricky out there”. There’s like a 80% probability of a first lap incident and subsequent SC.



#48 gillesfan76

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 12:46

DAS might help Mercedes here?

 

They are apparently not running DAS here. They chose not to in order to prepare better for next season without it and see how it effects the car. But what a track to experiment on. Must be pretty confident of sealing the WDC if they’re playing around like that.



#49 Risil

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 12:46

Between this OP and Channel 4's advert break stings, I'm seeing a lot of the underside of Ukyo Katayama's Tyrrell this week. :up: , or should I say :down:

#50 OO7

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Posted 25 October 2020 - 12:48

They are apparently not running DAS here. They chose not to in order to prepare better for next season without it and see how it effects the car. But what a track to experiment on. Must be pretty confident of sealing the WDC if they’re playing around like that.

My understanding was that it was only removed for Friday in preparation for 2021, but was run on Saturday and then of course today.