The standings after Bahrain:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) SpaceHorseParty 1362 40 2) M2000-5 1356 70 3) KWSN-DSM 1337 46 4) scheivlak 1331 40 5) Brawn BGP 001 1323 61 6) jjcale 1302 50 7) Kev00 1294 38 8) GTA 1277 52 9) Makarias 1266 57 10) mark f1 1264 40 11) thegforcemaybewithyou1263 54 12) DutchQuicksilver 1262 49 13) fisichella_2001 1259 47 14) f1paul 1256 47 15) Bleu 1244 43 16) Marklar 1233 40 17) thequadge 1206 40M2000-5 scores the best when the points are getting pretty scarce. Is this a challenge for the title?
The entries
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Hülk INF 1000,0 17 Gasl 223,1 139,2 17 Ricc 184,4 132,9 17 Norr 161,2 98,8 16 Stro 138,7 68,6 14 Pere 130,4 90,1 15 Sain 122,9 88,4 14 Kvya 122,8 68,4 13 Hami 111,1 101,6 17 Ocon 102,4 73,7 7 Bott 87,0 67,5 1 Vers 76,3 61,4 0 Albo 58,3 45,5 0 Lecl 51,3 36,0 0 Giov 39,8 20,0 0 Gros 24,6 12,5 1 Vett 19,5 16,0 0 Räik 18,3 10,0 0 Magn 7,5 2,4 0Lewis Hamilton becomes a 100% surprise! Esteban Ocon lives up to expectations!
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2019 this is 23.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Hamilton Verstappen Albon Norris Sainz * Potential 376 Bleu 302 SpaceHorseParty 186 * Potential 134 * Potential 134 * Forecast 369 Marklar 289 f1paul 184 * Forecast 95 * Forecast 95 * Current 326 M2000-5 260 Marklar 173 M2000-5 84 Brawn BGP 001 94 Makarias 320 Brawn BGP 001 257 KWSN-DSM 158 * Current 84 M2000-5 92 thegforcemaybewi317 f1paul 251 M2000-5 157 Brawn BGP 001 68 f1paul 84 GTA 315 thequadge 249 GTA 155 f1paul 63 * Current 84 jjcale 313 GTA 247 Makarias 148 scheivlak 62 fisichella_2001 81 Brawn BGP 001 312 scheivlak 243 Bleu 143 Bleu 59 Bleu 79 M2000-5 311 fisichella_2001 242 mark f1 143 SpaceHorseParty 58 scheivlak 73 DutchQuicksilver310 DutchQuicksilver237 Kev00 141 KWSN-DSM 57 SpaceHorseParty 72 KWSN-DSM 307 * Potential 236 * Potential 135 Kev00 50 Kev00 71 SpaceHorseParty 296 mark f1 232 fisichella_2001 134 fisichella_2001 49 KWSN-DSM 69 scheivlak 290 SpaceHorseParty 232 Brawn BGP 001 132 GTA 46 Marklar 61 Bleu 285 Makarias 230 DutchQuicksilver131 mark f1 46 Makarias 59 Kev00 285 Kev00 225 scheivlak 128 thequadge 46 mark f1 58 Marklar 283 thegforcemaybewi224 thequadge 127 Makarias 42 thequadge 58 fisichella_2001 282 jjcale 215 thegforcemaybewi124 Marklar 40 GTA 56 mark f1 282 * Forecast 211 jjcale 114 DutchQuicksilver 39 DutchQuicksilver 53 f1paul 242 KWSN-DSM 210 * Forecast 96 jjcale 39 jjcale 52 thequadge 240 * Current 186 * Current 85 thegforcemaybewi 38 thegforcemaybewi 50Lando Norris equals the highest guess but needs one more point to become a 100% surprise. Doable!
Guesses on P6-P10:
Gasly Ricciardo Bottas Ocon Leclerc * Potential 121 * Potential 151 Kev00 294 * Potential 92 thequadge 271 * Forecast 80 * Forecast 114 jjcale 254 f1paul 56 fisichella_2001 219 * Current 71 * Current 101 SpaceHorseParty 252 Brawn BGP 001 49 Makarias 213 scheivlak 50 f1paul 75 * Potential 249 KWSN-DSM 49 thegforcemaybewi205 thegforcemaybewi 46 thequadge 71 DutchQuicksilver247 scheivlak 49 Bleu 201 Kev00 39 SpaceHorseParty 68 GTA 236 thequadge 49 DutchQuicksilver194 KWSN-DSM 39 Brawn BGP 001 66 Marklar 236 * Forecast 48 mark f1 193 jjcale 36 scheivlak 63 Makarias 233 SpaceHorseParty 48 Brawn BGP 001 192 mark f1 35 KWSN-DSM 60 Bleu 232 mark f1 46 GTA 185 GTA 34 fisichella_2001 56 * Forecast 226 Marklar 44 scheivlak 185 fisichella_2001 32 Makarias 54 thegforcemaybewi224 fisichella_2001 43 jjcale 180 SpaceHorseParty 32 mark f1 54 Brawn BGP 001 219 DutchQuicksilver 42 Kev00 177 thequadge 32 Marklar 52 mark f1 216 * Current 42 Marklar 174 DutchQuicksilver 30 M2000-5 51 scheivlak 216 Bleu 38 f1paul 171 Brawn BGP 001 28 Bleu 48 M2000-5 214 M2000-5 37 M2000-5 171 M2000-5 26 thegforcemaybewi 48 thequadge 212 Kev00 33 KWSN-DSM 169 f1paul 23 DutchQuicksilver 45 fisichella_2001 209 Makarias 32 * Potential 148 Marklar 23 GTA 45 KWSN-DSM 200 jjcale 30 SpaceHorseParty 145 Makarias 22 Kev00 40 * Current 199 thegforcemaybewi 29 * Forecast 111 Bleu 14 jjcale 35 f1paul 196 GTA 23 * Current 98Bottas beats the lowest guess and can make a difference to the standings over the last two races.
The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/- SpaceHorseParty 1460,8 -8,4 M2000-5 1433,8 10,2 Brawn BGP 001 1413,4 11,2 scheivlak 1412,1 4,8 jjcale 1404,9 -8,7 KWSN-DSM 1397,9 6,1 Kev00 1381,6 -3,4 GTA 1358,6 -2,6 Makarias 1347,6 0,4 thegforcemaybewithyou1346,5 6,3 DutchQuicksilver 1343,6 -3,4 mark f1 1341,1 7,9 Bleu 1325,6 1,4 fisichella_2001 1325,1 7,9 f1paul 1316,7 6,9 Marklar 1316,6 -2,6 thequadge 1279,7 6,9Two bad results in a row for Bottas has had an adverse impact for a few players.
