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2020 Driver Market - Abu Dhabi


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#1 thegforcemaybewithyou

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Posted 08 December 2020 - 19:57

Please have a look at the spreadsheet for this game https://docs.google....92oKp_qZROikr8/ to decide which drivers/shares to sell, buy or hold.
Check the "Portfolio" tab to see if you have any additional cash to invest in the bank account.

For the rules of this game, please have a look at this thread: https://forums.autos...a-new-gameplay/

Next prices:
New Price if next result is...	
	Current		P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	P6	P7	P8	P9	P10	>=P11	
HAM	193		193	175	168	160	155	150	145	140	135	133	130	HAM
BOT	65		83	65	58	50	45	40	35	30	25	23	20	BOT
VET	38		100	83	75	68	63	58	53	48	43	40	38	VET
LEC	58		95	78	70	63	58	53	48	43	38	35	33	LEC
VER	65		128	110	103	95	90	85	80	75	70	68	65	VER
ALB	73		135	118	110	103	98	93	88	83	78	75	73	ALB
RIC	80		105	88	80	73	68	63	58	53	48	45	43	RIC
OCO	50		113	95	88	80	75	70	65	60	55	53	50	OCO
PER	128		170	153	145	138	133	128	123	118	113	110	108	PER
STR	43		105	88	80	73	68	63	58	53	48	45	43	STR
MAG	1		63	45	38	30	25	20	15	10	5	3	1	MAG
GRO	1		63	45	38	30	25	20	15	10	5	3	1	GRO
SAI	95		143	125	118	110	105	100	95	90	85	83	80	SAI
NOR	53		105	88	80	73	68	63	58	53	48	45	43	NOR
RÄI	5		63	45	38	30	25	20	15	10	5	3	1	RÄI
GIO	3		63	45	38	30	25	20	15	10	5	3	1	GIO
KVY	45		78	60	53	45	40	35	30	25	20	18	15	KVY
GAS	20		83	65	58	50	45	40	35	30	25	23	20	GAS
RUS	1		63	45	38	30	25	20	15	10	5	3	1	RUS
LAT	1		63	45	38	30	25	20	15	10	5	3	1	LAT
			P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	P6	P7	P8	P9	P10	>=P11


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#2 thegforcemaybewithyou

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Posted 09 December 2020 - 05:16

Same procedure as last race, replacement drivers will influence the price of the driver they will be replacing.



#3 Makarias

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Posted 09 December 2020 - 18:12

Sell: all

Cash 4593

 

Buy (back) :

Aitken (Williams)  5 (5)

Albon 5 (365)

Fittipaldi 5 (5)

Gasly 5 (100)

Latifi 5 (5)

Magnussen 5 (5)

Norris 5 (265)

Ocon 5 (250)

Perez 5 (640)

Sainz 5 (475)

Stroll 5 (215)

Verstappen 5 (325)

Vettel 5 (190)

 

Cash 1748

 

I'll say that this game is quite flawed and you might as well start from scratch in terms of game design for next year rather than build on this.



#4 thegforcemaybewithyou

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Posted 09 December 2020 - 20:04


I'll say that this game is quite flawed and you might as well start from scratch in terms of game design for next year rather than build on this.

I'm always open for suggestions on how to improve a game. I've asked in the past but got no replies.

 

The first thing I'd change would be a different scoring system where all positions, even DNFs and DNSs get points. That would eliminate most of the cases where the price cannot drop from one round to the next.

We could also set a minimum and maximum share limit that forces players to invest and risk losing money as a consequence.

 

Would you prefer if the price of a share is connected to a driver and not the car?

 

We could also play two rounds over a year. You start with 200 credits and try to increase the worth of your portfolio over the first ten races, then the mony is locked. For the remaining races everyone starts again with 200 credits, the final result is the sum of the two stages.



#5 Makarias

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Posted 10 December 2020 - 14:03

I'll elaborate on it after this round is over, but the basic problem is in the value development for the drivers. A different scoring system as you suggest would be an improvement but wouldn't take away the bottom issue. More on it later, the offseason gives plenty of time to think things over! :)



#6 thegforcemaybewithyou

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Posted 11 December 2020 - 05:21

Another idea that punishes the top player: Money that sits in the bank account uninvested could shrink by 5% round to round, just like in real life currently in some cases (ECB).

 

And: Selling a share could come with a small fee.

 

Or: The qualifying (or mid race position) results could also influence the price.

 

 

Sell

All

 

Buy

5 Vettel

5 Verstappen

5 Albon

5 Ocon

5 Stroll

5 Sainz

5 Gasly


Edited by thegforcemaybewithyou, 11 December 2020 - 05:25.


#7 M2000-5

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Posted 11 December 2020 - 08:06

Sell

 

5 Ricciardo +400

5 Raikkonen +25

5 Giovinazzi +15

 

Buy

 

5 Gasly -100

 

Not much to do here. Well done Makarias for the win :up:

 

Thank you gforce for running it. We will tweak it after the season is over (meaning after I post all the results in competitions I run).

 

:wave:

 

Mat



#8 Makarias

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Posted 18 December 2020 - 11:48

Bump!

 

The problem with the driver value development:

 

Going into race 5, the value is based on races 1, 2, 3 and 4.

 

After the race, the value is based on races 2, 3, 4 and 5.

 

So the difference between the two  is simply the one between races 5 and 1, which sort of turns the whole game into a "guess who does better next race than four races ago". Thus the race 1 winner always becomes a terrible bet and the race 1 non-scorers totally safe. After a while you end up with enough points to pick all the cherries (including points scorers that usually do better than four races ago) and the whole game stagnates.

 

Staying passive with ones portfolio is also hopeless with this system.

 

One solution might be to have the drivers value be some sort of weighted function of the latest race results, for example

0.1 [four races ago] + 0.2 [three races ago] + 0.3 [two races ago] +0.4 [previous race] = new value

Or something even based off the entire season. The above formula would at least ensure that it's a bit less obvious which drivers are good picks.

 

I like the idea of a lower sale price than purchase price to encourage continuity. But it needs to be reasonable so as to not become prohibitive. 5% or something? Not sure.