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2022 Formula 1 Silly Season


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#1 Marklar

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Posted 18 December 2020 - 14:45

Mercedes AMG Petronas Motorsport
Mercedes F1 W13 EQ Power+Mercedes M13 EQ Power+
44. Lewis Hamilton (on multi-year deal till end 2023)
77. Valtteri Bottas
63. George Russell
33. Max Verstappen


Red Bull Racing
Red Bull Racing RB18Red Bull
33. Max Verstappen (on multi-year deal till end 2023)
11. Sergio Perez
10. Pierre Gasly
22. Yuki Tsunoda
23. Alexander Albon


McLaren F1 Team
McLaren MCL36 – Mercedes M13 EQ Power+
4. Lando Norris (on multi-year deal till end 2023)
3. Daniel Ricciardo (contract till end 2023)

Aston Martin F1 Team
Racing Point RP22 – BWT Mercedes
5. Sebastian Vettel (on multi-year deal till end 2023)
18. Lance Stroll

Alpine Sport Formula One Team
Renault R.S.22Renault E-Tech 22
14. Fernando Alonso (contract till end 2022 plus option)
31. Esteban Ocon (on multi-year deal till end 2024)

Scuderia Ferrari
Ferrari SF22 Ferrari 066
16. Charles Leclerc (on multi-year deal till end 2024)
55. Carlos Sainz jr. (contract for 2022)

Scuderia AlphaTauri
Alpha Tauri AT03 Red Bull
10. Pierre Gasly (Red Bull contract till end 2023)
22. Yuki Tsunoda
23. Alexander Albon
-. Juri Vips
-. Liam Lawson


Alfa Romeo Sauber F1 Team
Sauber C42 – Ferrari 066 (contract ends 2021)
7. Kimi Räikkönen
36. Antonio Giovinazzi

11. Sergio Perez
-. Robert Shwartzman
-. Theo Pourchaire
-. Callum Ilott


Haas F1 Team
Haas VF-22 – Ferrari 066
47. Mick Schumacher (multi-year contract)
9. Nikita Mazepin (multi-year contract)

Williams Racing
Williams FW45Mercedes M13 EQ Power+
6. Nicholas Latifi (contract for 2022)
63. George Russell
11. Sergio Perez
77. Valtteri Bottas

-. Jack Aitken
-. Daniel Ticktum


Bold+red = team
Bold+grey = car/engine brand, type designation
Bold+blue engine = rumored engine deal
Bold driver = confirmed driver
Bold+blue driver = driver contracted in 2021
Regular+blue driver = rumored driver


Mercedes: Probably Hamilton/Russell, but loads depend here on how much Lewis actually extents, might even end in a Verstappen/Bottas pairing for example in one scenario. Should get more answers about this in the coming weeks when we know how long his extension will be

Red Bull: Certainly the target is to promote Tsunoda if he has a good enough rookie season, but if he doesnt Perez could spend another year there. Or if he disappoints maybe Gasly or Albon do get a chance again. Max leaving after taking his exit clause might also be an (albeit unlikely) scenario, in which case you would expect them to pair Perez with one of their juniors.

McLaren: Set.


Renault: Alonso signed a multi-year deal. Ocon needs to up his game if he wants to be retained. Plenty of options for him. Gasly if he wants to get out of the RB circle? Hulkenberg as a known quantity? Bottas if he loses his Merc seat? One of the many Renault juniors?

Racing Point: Should be set.


Ferrari: Set. Though I wonder if Sainz' place is safe is Mick has a excellent rookie season, but he doesnt tend to have them.

Alpha Tauri: Loads of options here too. Again, a lot will depend on how the F2 season and Tsunoda's rookie season go. Plus whether Gasly is willing to play the team leader if they even want him.

Alfa: Hard time believing that Giovinazzi will survive another year, does Kimi want another year? Will the Ferrari connection still persist? If yes, Shwartzman should be hot favourite for one of the seats. Or their own junior Pourchaire, in case his rookie season in F2 is impressive enough. Perhaps a Renault young driver if they get a engine deal with them?

Haas: Should be set, unless Ferrari wants Mick desperate or Mazepin causes even more uproar.

WIlliams: Russell should be gone after 3 years. Latifi is probably here to stay. The 2nd cockpit probably goes to a driver with a lot of cash. Before he was linked with Red Bull there were rumours that Perez could be interested in this new project.


Edited by Marklar, 03 July 2021 - 08:41.


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#2 noikeee

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Posted 18 December 2020 - 16:51

Very early prediction:

 

Merc: Hamilton/Russell
RB: Verstappen/Perez
Ferrari: Leclerc/Sainz
McLaren: Ricciardo/Norris
Aston: Vettel/Stroll
Alpine: Alonso/Gasly
Sauber (no longer Alfa): Pourchaire/Shwartzman
Alpha: Tsunoda/Vips
Haas: Schumacher/Mazepin
Williams: Ocon/Zhou
 
Bottas, Giovinazzi, Raikkonen, Latifi out of F1.


#3 OvDrone

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Posted 18 December 2020 - 16:59

The thing I want most is Gasly out of anything Red Bull and straight into a Renault.



#4 Laster

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Posted 18 December 2020 - 17:05

Normally I try to predict sensibly with these things, but for once I feel like giving a crazy prediction.

Merc - Verstappen/Russell
Red Bull - Perez/Tsunoda
Ferrari - Leclerc/Sainz
Renault - Gasly/Alonso
Mclaren - Norris/Ricciardo
Aston Martin - Vettel/Stroll
Alpha Tauri - Vips/Albon
Haas - Schumacher/Mazepin
Alfa Romeo - Bottas/Schwartzman
Williams - Latifi and someone with a mountain of gold spilling out of their pockets.

Hamilton retires because he gets bored of winning all the time...maybe?

#5 Ali623

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Posted 18 December 2020 - 17:15

Has there actually been any tangible Gasly to Renault rumours outside of forum discussion?



#6 FLB

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Posted 18 December 2020 - 17:22

Has there actually been any tangible Gasly to Renault rumours outside of forum discussion?

Yes. the article I'm linking mentions Blick as a source: 

 

F1 : Gasly chez Renault en 2021 ? (planeterenault.com) (en francais)

 

 

Gasly himself says he's a Red Bull driver and that he is not involed in any discussion:

 

Formule1 | Formule 1 : Un départ chez Renault ? La réponse de Gasly ! (le10sport.com) (en francais aussi)


Edited by FLB, 18 December 2020 - 17:22.


#7 Calum

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Posted 18 December 2020 - 17:59

Merc: Hamilton and Russell
RedBull-Honda: Verstappen and Perez
Ferrari: Leclerc and Sainz
McLaren: Ricciardo and Norris
Aston: Vettel and Stroll
Alpine: Alonso and Bottas
Sauber-Renault: Gasly and Kimi
Alpha-Honda: Tsunoda and Albon
Haas: Schumacher and Mazepin
Williams: Latifi and Ocon


I’m thinking Honda change their mind and Sauber ditch the Ferrari deal.

#8 Clrnc

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Posted 18 December 2020 - 18:01

I will predict this

 

Merc - Hamilton/Russell - No brainer for merc really
Red Bull - Perez/Verstappen - Really confident Perez will surprise a lot of people here
Ferrari - Leclerc/Sainz
Renault - Zhou/Alonso - Ocon to be average again, Zhou wins F2 and Renault wants to enter Chinese market
Mclaren - Norris/Ricciardo
Aston Martin - Vettel/Stroll
Alpha Tauri - Gasly/Tsunoda - Too early for the other RB jrs to be considered
Haas - Schumacher/Mazepin
Alfa Romeo - Kimi/Schwartzman - Kimi will want to try the new car for 1 year before retiring
Williams - Latifi and Bottas 



#9 ARTGP

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Posted 18 December 2020 - 18:03

Has there actually been any tangible Gasly to Renault rumours outside of forum discussion?

 

I wouldn't call it a rumour even. I would say it's an open secret that all drivers are sniffing around including Gasly. And he happens to be French. And Renault is a works team. The rumour is not so much that Renault are trying to sign him. The open secret is that he's considering his options and Renault 2022 seat is one of them but it will depend on Ocon to a certain extent. What level Ocon brings next year. and there is no love lost between those two drivers so I think Ocon will be pretty fired up to keep his seat.


Edited by ARTGP, 18 December 2020 - 18:03.


#10 Kev00

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Posted 18 December 2020 - 18:06

I’m more sure of Russell driving for Mercedes in 2022 than I am Hamilton or Bottas.

#11 Viryfan

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Posted 18 December 2020 - 18:24

From what i heard internally there seems to be a push by Luca De Meo to keep frenchness at Alpine no  matter what.

 

He also wants to put in the academy a female driver with a view to put her of the Le Mans Signatech/Alpine program over long term.



#12 Red5ive

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Posted 18 December 2020 - 18:32

Merc: Hamilton and Russell
RedBull-Honda: Verstappen and Perez
Ferrari: Leclerc and Sainz
McLaren: Ricciardo and Norris
Aston: Vettel and Stroll
Alpine: Alonso and Bottas
Sauber-Renault: Gasly and Kimi
Alpha-Honda: Tsunoda and Albon
Haas: Schumacher and Mazepin
Williams: Latifi and Ocon


I’m thinking Honda change their mind and Sauber ditch the Ferrari deal.

 

As above except -

 

Merc Hamilton/Bottas

McLaren Ricciardo/Russell

Alpine Alonso/Norris

 

All due to Merc playing it safe yet again after Bottas has another semi-okay season leaving Toto to strongarm Russell in at McLaren leaving Norris (who had another solid but slightly disappointing season) to replace the underwhelming Ocon.



#13 William Hunt

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Posted 19 December 2020 - 19:31

Sauber (they may not be called Alfa Romeo anymore by 2022) may be the most interesting team to watch for change in 2022. There is a good chance they will ditch Ferrari for Renault engines.
If that happens we probably will see a Renault Jr. driver entering there: Lundgaard, Zhou, Piastri all could fit that picture. Pourchaire is a Sauber Jr. driver off course but still very young in 2022, I think he will do 2 seasons in F2 before moving to F1.

I personally think that since Kimi continued this year that he would want to do one year extra in 2022 as well to try out the new rules. But if Sauber ends up splitting with Ferrari this could mean the end of Giovinazzi at Sauber but possibly also for Kimi. Kimi is a great driver but he is probably quite expensive as well (don't know his salary though) and with Alfa Romeo not pumping cash in the team anymore I think that means both drivers gone.

So if it becomes a Renault powered team with 1 seat filled potentially by a Renault Jr. driver I think they would want a driver with at least some F1 experience in the other car: Nico Hülkenberg could be a good fit, Daniil Kvyat or Pierre Gasly as well, maybe even Stoffel Vandoorne (highly rated by Vasseur) or Perez, Ocon or Bottas if they are not extended could have a shot here. Who knows they might even give Albon a last chance in F1.
All options seem wide open at this team for the long term.

If Alfa Romeo keeps sponsoring them and they keep the Ferrari engines then we could see either Callum Ilott or Robert Schwartzman paired with either Raikkönen or Giovinazzi but the signs right now are clear that Haas is the favoured partner of Ferrari (they even placed Resta there) and the relationship between Sauber & Ferrari seems to have cooled down.

 

The other big option as an engine partner for Renault is Williams. Latifi in theory has a 3 year deal so probably will be there again but Latifi signed his contract under the previous ownership so if he underperforms strongly in 2021 it's not impossible that Williams may want to get out of the deal, in particular if they are serious with their ambition to move up the grid. They will probably lose Russell to Mercedes in 2022. So he could replace him? Maybe Pierre Gasly or Esteban Ocon? Or will they go for a Renault Jr. (in case the switch engines) and put someone like Christian Lundgaard in it? Jack Aitken is a good driver but not as good as Russel so if they want a similar talent that may be hard to find...

I doubt Bottas would be happy to be relegated to Williams if Mercedes doesn't extend him, it depends on how motivated he is to stay in F1 really but I believe Renault would certainly consider Bottas if he comes on the market and if they do show interest Bottas will not hesitate to sign for them. Bottas could also be an option at McLaren if Norris has a really bad season. I do know Norris still has a contract with McLaren for 2022 but in F1 any contract can be broken, in particular if the driver underperforms.

 

At Red Bull I think we will see the same pairing (Verstappen-Perez) with Tsunoda staying at AlphaTauri and Gasly either staying if he keeps Tsunoda behind him or leaving if Tsunoda matches him. If Renault knocks on Gasly's door he will be quick to accept off course.

On Occon: I actually thought he was under a 3 year deal at Renault (Alpine) but I may be wrong and in any case if he gets crushed by Alonso Alpine will be looking to replace him by someone as Bottas, Gasly, (maybe even Perez is Red Bull promotes Tsunoda) or Lundgaard anyway and who knows maybe they will even put Zhou in as a choice to increase their marketing reach in China. I believe Bottas would be Alpine's first choice (ideal second driver) if he becomes available and I could see that working well for both of them.

 

So Sauber and Williams the teams with most likely driver changes and I also expect Russel to move to Mercedes. At AlphaTauri a seat might open up for Vips or Lawson but only if they have a very strong F2 campaign and are in the title hunt, if they are not but one of the Red Bull Jr. drivers wins the F3 title (Dennis Hauger for example) then that driver could be a long shot as well, Red Bull has never been shy of promoting drivers (too) early.

 

At McLaren Norris may not be 100% safe despite a contract. Same could be said about Sainz of Leclerc trashes him off course but most likely most will stay put. Haas will for sure keep the same line up unless Mazepin goed ballistic and does something outrageous.

 

There is also is Panthera who still haven't given up finding an extra 200 million $ to enter, I don't count on them finding it but it's not impossible, maybe they will find an investor in the Middle East in a country like Saudi Arabia now they will have a GP, there's plenty of fithy rich people there who may want to be part owner or investor of an F1 team as a 'hobby', many of them buy soccer clubs so there could also be someone who puts money in F1. I think this is the most likely place where Panthera could find that extra money.
If they do manage it Renault is no doubt going to be their supplier and an Asian driver like Guanyu Zhou seems the perfect fit here then, maybe partnered by Albon driving under the Thai flag? Or an Indian like Jehan Daruvala?

There could be another option for Panthera to look for those 200 million $ (which is a massive amount considering Williams was sold for less and that amount is a quarter higher as the budget cap!).
Their co-founder and team manager, Frenchman Benjamin Durand, has worked for 3 years as the team manager of SMP Racing when they were in WEC. Now that team was owned by Boris Rotenberg, who also owns the SMP bank together with his brother. The Rotenberg brothers have a huge network and are both billionaire oligarchs in the close inner circle of Vladimir Putin (both were judo sparring partner of judo back in the '90s and with the help of Putin they became an oligarch). As owners of a bank they shouldn't have much trouble to find partners to finance a new F1 team, in particular not if they can convince Putin that this would help the image of Russia. They got a Grand Prix, organised the winter olympics & the world cup soccer so an F1 owned or sponsored team by Russian companies could fit in that agenda.
Since Boris Rotenberg owned the SMP WEC team (their Dallara build car was actually called a 'BR' which is the abreviation of Boris Rotenberg) and he still sponsors many young Russian drivers it's not impossible that Durand may try to contact Rotenberg to help him finance the team. Of course the Russians wouldn't necessarily need Durand to set up a new team themselves if they really wanted to, they are not exactly short of finances... As drivers Daniil Kvyat and Robert Schwartzman would be obvious candidates and Artem Markelov holds a Super Licence as well.


Edited by William Hunt, 19 December 2020 - 19:54.


#14 Beri

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Posted 19 December 2020 - 19:50


Very early prediction:

Merc: Hamilton/Russell
RB: Verstappen/Perez
Ferrari: Leclerc/Sainz
McLaren: Ricciardo/Norris
Aston: Vettel/Stroll
Alpine: Alonso/Gasly
Sauber (no longer Alfa): Pourchaire/Shwartzman
Alpha: Tsunoda/Vips
Haas: Schumacher/Mazepin
Williams: Ocon/Zhou

Bottas, Giovinazzi, Raikkonen, Latifi out of F1.


I'd say, at least I want to believe, you are bang on.

#15 solochamp07

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Posted 19 December 2020 - 20:37

As above except -

Merc Hamilton/Bottas
McLaren Ricciardo/Russell
Alpine Alonso/Norris

All due to Merc playing it safe yet again after Bottas has another semi-okay season leaving Toto to strongarm Russell in at McLaren leaving Norris (who had another solid but slightly disappointing season) to replace the underwhelming Ocon.

When Alonso left McLaren, I thought we’d be forever denied the Lando and Nando pairing but you have breathed some life into the notion (for me) once again. Unlikely though it seems, I would welcome that pair for sure!

#16 KWSN - DSM

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Posted 19 December 2020 - 21:16

I will post my own likely incorrect slab at 2022.

 

But.... Can we PLEASE forget about Hulkeneberg.



#17 Beri

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Posted 19 December 2020 - 21:32

I will post my own likely incorrect slab at 2022.
 
But.... Can we PLEASE forget about Hulkeneberg.


Who?

#18 TheMessiah

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Posted 19 December 2020 - 21:43

As above except -

 

Merc Hamilton/Bottas

McLaren Ricciardo/Russell

Alpine Alonso/Norris

 

All due to Merc playing it safe yet again after Bottas has another semi-okay season leaving Toto to strongarm Russell in at McLaren leaving Norris (who had another solid but slightly disappointing season) to replace the underwhelming Ocon.

 

No chance will Russell get in at McLaren.



#19 efuloni

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Posted 19 December 2020 - 22:04

Merc: Hamilton and Russell
RedBull-Honda: Verstappen and Perez
Ferrari: Leclerc and Sainz
McLaren: Ricciardo and Norris
Aston: Vettel and Stroll
Alpine: Alonso and Ocon
Sauber-Renault: Albon and Lundgaard
Alpha-Honda: Tsunoda and Gasly
Haas: Schumacher and Schwartzman
Williams: Latifi and Drugovich

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#20 messy

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Posted 19 December 2020 - 22:22

I’d maybe say I’m 50-50 at the moment on whether Lewis will carry on beyond 2021 but who knows. I could see him retiring after title eight and then, maybe, doing a Schumacher/Alonso style comeback a few years on. But that’s all baseless speculation.

Surely, George Russell is pretty much nailed on for the second Merc seat. He’d have to basically forget how to drive next season with Williams and get outqualified 23-0 by Latifi for them to rethink because in that brief cameo in Bahrain he did every single thing right and even showed a bit of attitude on the radio when it all went wrong - he’s an absolute shoo-in isn’t he? Surely though, if Lewis was to retire, then Mercedes would think about going all out for Max instead of just pairing Bottas with George. Because if Verstappen’s still in the Red Bull, he’s coming for them.

Still, I think the reality will probably be boring - Lewis will continue with Mercedes, Max will continue with RB.

Ferrari, I don’t see any need for them to change Leclerc-Sainz so no shocks there. McLaren ditto with Ricciardo-Norris and Aston with Vettel-Stroll. These new 2021 lineups won’t change in the space of a year.

So that leaves the ‘class C’ teams as a complete unknown, and Ocon on shaky ground at Alpine. I can see why Gasly would appeal to Alpine and also why Alpine would appeal big time to Gasly. That’s the only swap I can see happening, leaving Ocon scrabbling round for one of the other seats.

I’d also expect Felipe Drugovich, Robert Shwartzman and possibly Lundgaard to be knocking on the door but where is anybody’s guess.

#21 KWSN - DSM

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Posted 19 December 2020 - 22:30

Mercedes    : Hamilton and Russell
Red Bull    : Verstappen and Perez
Ferrari     : Leclerc and Sainz
McLaren     : Ricciardo and Norris
Aston       : Vettel and Stroll
Haas        : Schumacher and Mazepin
Alpine      : Alonso and Gasly
Sauber      : Ocon Bottas and Lundgaard
Alpha Tauri : Tsunoda and Albon
Williams    : Latifi and Bottas Zhou
Panthera    : Ocon and Shwartzman

Too many teams expected to hang on to their lineups, I needed seats so added Panthera.

 

Edited and changed...


Edited by KWSN - DSM, 19 December 2020 - 22:36.


#22 messy

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Posted 19 December 2020 - 22:32

Ocon will be busy!!

#23 KWSN - DSM

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Posted 19 December 2020 - 22:36

Ocon will be busy!!

 

This what happens when try to think and post at same time.



#24 FLB

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Posted 20 December 2020 - 00:32

Ocon will be busy!!

Well, he might considering the Director of Renault Sport Academy has just gone on the record to put pressure on both Zhou and Lundgaard for next year:

 

Renault “hoped for more” from its F2 drivers in 2020 - Formula Scout



#25 HeadFirst

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Posted 20 December 2020 - 01:35

Merc: Ricciardo/Russell
RB: Verstappen/Bottas
Ferrari: Leclerc/Sainz
McLaren: Alonso/Norris
Aston: Vettel/Stroll
Alpine: Gasly/Ocon
Alfa Romeo: Raikkonnen/Schumacher
Alpha Tauri: Tsunoda/Albon
Uralchem Racing: Schwartzman/Mazepin
Williams: Perez/Herta


#26 NewMrMe

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Posted 20 December 2020 - 06:32

Mercedes - Hamilton, Russell

Red Bull - Verstappen, Perez/Tsunoda

Ferrari - Leclerc, Sainz

McLaren - Ricciardo, Norris

Aston Martin - Vettel/Bottas/Ocon/Perez, Stroll

Alpine - Alonso, Gasly

Alfa Romeo - Raikkonen, Schwartzmann

Alpha Tauri - Tsunoda/Vips/Lawson/Albon

Haas - Schumacher, Mazepin

Williams - Bottas/Ocon/Perez, Latifi

 

Thoughts on each team

 

Mercedes - I think Russell will get the nod after his performance in Bahrain and he is now definitely seen as a long term option by the team. If Hamilton does get his 8th title there is a fair chance he could retire. That could be all bets are off for the silly season as contracts could be broken and the knock on effects for other teams substantial. On the other hand I can see Merc being boring in that scenario and going for a Bottas/Russell line up.

 

Red Bull - I think the second seat depends on who wins out of Gasly and Tsunoda. If Tsunoda beats Gasly he will get the promotion for 2022. If he doesn't Perez will keep it.

 

Ferrari - I don't see any changes here.

 

McLaren - Or here.

 

Aston Martin - Depends on whether or not Vettel gets his mojo back. If he doesn't I can see him retiring.

 

Alpine - I think Ocon was disappointing this year and up against Alonso I can see him out of the team at the end of next sesaon.

 

Alfa Romeo - A lot depends on whether the tie up with Ferrari continues. If Schwartzman performs as expected next year in F2, Gio will get the chop to make room for him. If the Ferrari link ends it obviously becomes a lot less predictable. I think Raikkonen will still have a drive regardless as long as he wants to continue.

 

Alpha Tauri - If Gasly didn't get the call to move back to Red Bull this year I don't think it will happen for him. He will look to move out of the Red Bull program and that is why I can see ending up in the second Alpine. If Tsunoda doesn't beat Gasly he will stay at AT for a second season. Vips and Lawson have a chance depending on how they do in 2021. If neither impress next year I can see Albon coming back as a seat filler.

 

Haas - Don't see any changes. Mazepin will keep the drive because of money. Schumacher's junior career suggests he needs a learning year in a new series before delivering, so I think the plan was always for him to have 2 years at Haas.

 

Williams - Latifi will stay put because of money. There are several experienced drivers who could lose out as part of the merry go round and I think one of these will end up at WIlliams.



#27 BRG

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Posted 20 December 2020 - 12:45

Alfa Romeo - A lot depends on whether the tie up with Ferrari continues.

A lot of people to seem to think the Alfa sponsorship and name will end.  If so, and if that means no more Ferrari engines at a discount price, can Sauber even survive?  No title sponsor and paying top dollar for a Renault or Merc engine?  Kimi will be gone and so presumably will Giovanazzi, so they will need two big buck paydrivers to stay in business.  Any more Mazepins or Strolls on the horizon?


Edited by BRG, 20 December 2020 - 12:46.


#28 KWSN - DSM

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Posted 20 December 2020 - 13:22

A lot of people to seem to think the Alfa sponsorship and name will end.  If so, and if that means no more Ferrari engines at a discount price, can Sauber even survive?  No title sponsor and paying top dollar for a Renault or Merc engine?  Kimi will be gone and so presumably will Giovanazzi, so they will need two big buck paydrivers to stay in business.  Any more Mazepins or Strolls on the horizon?

 

Panthera stepping in, bypassing the $200 million?



#29 BRG

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Posted 20 December 2020 - 13:33

Are Panthera a credible candidate?  We haven't heard much from them for a long while, have we?  And even if they were let off the ridiculous $200m ticket price, do they have the resources to put together even a Marussia level effort?



#30 Beri

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Posted 20 December 2020 - 13:38

A lot of people to seem to think the Alfa sponsorship and name will end. If so, and if that means no more Ferrari engines at a discount price, can Sauber even survive? No title sponsor and paying top dollar for a Renault or Merc engine? Kimi will be gone and so presumably will Giovanazzi, so they will need two big buck paydrivers to stay in business. Any more Mazepins or Strolls on the horizon?


They did before in a similar situation with BMW. And if they are doing smart business, they would anticipate on such an occasion.
So if they can survive, I think it's a yes. But I think they will be driven to the back of the grid even more and it will not be sustainable. Because should it happen, they would be the only true privateer in Formula One. Which is worrying enough on itself.

#31 Neno

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Posted 20 December 2020 - 14:06

The thing I want most is Gasly out of anything Red Bull and straight into a Renault.

This never gonna happen. 



#32 Anja

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Posted 20 December 2020 - 14:22

This never gonna happen. 

 

Because there's no more Renault?   ;)



#33 Anderis

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Posted 20 December 2020 - 14:41

Mercedes    : Hamilton and Russell
Red Bull    : Verstappen and Perez
Ferrari     : Leclerc and Sainz
McLaren     : Ricciardo and Norris
Aston       : Vettel and Stroll
Haas        : Schumacher and Mazepin
Alpine      : Alonso and Gasly
Sauber      : Ocon Bottas and Lundgaard
Alpha Tauri : Tsunoda and Albon
Williams    : Latifi and Bottas Zhou
Panthera    : Ocon and Shwartzman

Too many teams expected to hang on to their lineups, I needed seats so added Panthera.

 

Edited and changed...

 

Very optimistic to think Panthera will be on the grid as 11th team and as early as 2022. The $200 million fee was a very clear signal from F1 that they don't really want more teams to join anytime soon.



#34 Neno

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Posted 20 December 2020 - 14:51

Because there's no more Renault?   ;)

Both. There is no more Renault and management  have no are interested in having possibly underperforming lineup Ocon-Gasly. And in between them there is no much difference. I personally rate Ocon be slight better because he proved to improve when being paired with elite driver. Gasly couldnt make any improvement to Verstappen while Ocon clearly did to Ricciardo. And he had handicap sitting year out too. Dont get me wrong keeping one is ok and I prefer Ocon, but neither are good to occupy both seats in manufacturer team.

 

When Alonso retires and if he chooses too retire, depends how good car Alpine build for 2022 and beyond there will be plenty of better drivers to choose on market to drive that car including those from Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull. So Gasly in Alpine aint happening neither way.


Edited by Neno, 20 December 2020 - 14:53.


#35 William Hunt

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Posted 20 December 2020 - 15:12

Are Panthera a credible candidate?  We haven't heard much from them for a long while, have we?  And even if they were let off the ridiculous $200m ticket price, do they have the resources to put together even a Marussia level effort?

 

Yes they are a very credible candidate (Campos not so much imho). Benjamin Durand gave an interview as recently as November and he also gave one in September so that's not such a long while ago. He said back then that they weren't surprised about the new entry fee for new teams and that they had anticipated it but it makes entering for them naturaly more difficult now.

He said they are looking for an investor to find the extra 200m.$ and they're not giving up, in worst case they will again have to postpone their entry. In my post I mentioned that they might find the money in Russia (considering Durand was 3 years the team manager of SMP Racing in WEC) or maybe in Saudi Arabia so I wouldn't count them out but 2022 may come too early because of the extra 200m. they have to find but I think we can expect them by 2023 or 2024, hopefull earlier. 
Haas enetered F1 with a budget of 100 millon $, Panthera will need three times as much just to start their first season. Off course the higher share of price money that they will get in the next years means that they will be able to recover some of that but only but the start up of a team became three times as expensive.

 

Someone like Mazepin might have fincanced Panthera for 2022 if he had not been able to buy the Haas seat and I think he would have certainly done so if he had not been able to buy an excisting team or a buy a seat for his son.

Imagine if Latifi loses his seat after 2022 (he's contracted with Williams until 2022) then maybe they could also finance a new team (in 2023 then) by investing (or even via a loan to the new team) so the son can stay in F1. It's not impossible, remember that Lawrence Stroll also purchased a team.


Edited by William Hunt, 20 December 2020 - 15:17.


#36 maximilian

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Posted 20 December 2020 - 15:18

We COULD see a lot of churn at the end of 2021, with many names disappearing:

 

Raikkonen retires.

 

Giovinazzi finally booted (also due to the end of Sauber-Ferrari).

 

Tsunoda not making an impression, and Honda pulling out anyways.

 

Ocon getting crushed by Alonso and booted.

 

Bottas dropped by Mercedes, and decides not to continue in a lesser team.

 

Hamilton retiring after breaking all records.

 

Perez dropped by Red Bull for reasons.

 

Latifi axed due to constant crapness.

 

So the only names we can be RELATIVELY sure WILL be there in 2022 are:  Gasly (although could be dropped if he has an awful season), Alonso, Vettel, Stroll, Leclerc, Sainz, Mazepin (unless he does something even MORE stupid), Schumacher, Ricciardo, Norris, Verstappen and Russell.

 

There could be as many as EIGHT new/returning drivers to fill the slots.


Edited by maximilian, 20 December 2020 - 15:20.


#37 KWSN - DSM

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Posted 20 December 2020 - 15:26

Are Panthera a credible candidate?  We haven't heard much from them for a long while, have we?  And even if they were let off the ridiculous $200m ticket price, do they have the resources to put together even a Marussia level effort?

 

If they have a billionaire in the background they can, SMP who they used to race SMP, if they still have Boris Rotenberg as part of their setup he will pay.



#38 William Hunt

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Posted 20 December 2020 - 15:29

We COULD see a lot of churn at the end of 2021, with many names disappearing:

 

We could also see all the names you mentioned continue ;)

 

I think Raikkönen would want to do another year because of the new rules. Latifi is contracted until 2022 so he should still be there and I actually thought Ocon was under a 3 year Renault deal but he will be under pressure off course. I also think Tsunoda & Perez will both do another year at their current teams.

The most likely transfers I can see happening is Russell in at Mercedes and Bottas to Alpine (with either Gasly or Ocon at Sauber (or maybe even replacing Russell at Williams) IF Kimi does stop and a young driver in the second Sauber seat (Lundgaard or Piastri if Renault engine, Ilott or Schwartzman if Ferrari engine, Lundgaard or Piastri possibly at Williams if they switch to Renault).

 

If either Bottas or Perez (or both) come on the market for 2022 they are going to be hard to resist for Alpine, on the condition that Ocon underperforms off course.
Gasly & Lundgaard (or even Zhou or Piastria) would be the other alternatives but probably less atractive as Bottas (ideal supporting driver next to Alonso and great team player) or Perez.
Bottas also an option for McLaren if Norris would perform very poorly (I don't expect Norris to do bad actually and he still has a '22 contract).
 

Ocon may also end up at Williams (if Bottas, Gasly or Lundgaard or even Perez, Piastri or Zhou replaces him at Renault) since they currently have a Mercedes engine and Ocon has links with Mercedes but also if they switch to Renault because Ocon currently represents Renault. Off course a lot depends on Ocon having a two or three year contract at Renault (I  thought 3, others seem to think 2) and if Alonso doesn't crush him he will likely stay.

 

My current prediction would be:

 

Mercedes:  Hamilton & Russell

Red Bull:  Verstappen & Perez

Ferrari:  Leclerc & Sainz

McLaren:  Ricciardo & Norris

Aston Martin: Vettel & Stroll
Alpine:  Alonso & Bottas

Sauber (if Ferrari engine):  Raikkönen (or Gioninazzi) & Ilott or Schwartzman.  (both Ilott & Schwartzman also possible)

Sauber (if Renault engine):  Ocon or Gasly or Hülkenberg (long shot Vandoorne) & Lundgaard (or Piastri or Zhou)

Williams  (if Mercedes engine):  Ocon & Latifi

Williams (if Renault engine):  Ocon or Lundgaard (or Piastri or Zhou) & Latifi

Haas:  Schumacher & Mazepin

AlphaTauri:  Gasly or Lawson or Vips (or Hauger if he wins F3 title) & Tsunoda

Panthera:  Zhou + driver with big budget, if it has to be an Asian driver maybe Daruvala (or Albon), if SMP backs them Schwartzman or Kvyat

 

* Danill Kvyat will be looking for a sponsor in 2021 to come back in 2022, if he finds backing he may be a candidate at Sauber or Williams (or Panthera if they find the 200 m.$). Since Kvyat also has a Ferrari link (he has been their simulator driver one year) he may also be considered by Sauber to replace Kimi if he retires and Ferrari stays (although I think they would more likely extend Giovinazzi to act as lead driver then).
 

* Nico Hülkenberg is a former Sauber driver but also started his F1 carreer at Williams so maybe that could also play a role if Williams will have to look for a Russell replacement and Hülkenberg is still a quality signing, even with another year out of F1.

 

* Pourchaire still a bit too young , expect him again in F2 in 2022.


Edited by William Hunt, 20 December 2020 - 15:54.


#39 DutchQuicksilver

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Posted 20 December 2020 - 15:38

Tsunoda at Red Bull after just one season at AlphaTauri? No chance, no matter how impressive he performs. Red Bull aren’t stupid enough to make that mistake of promoting too early yet again. Especially with there Japanese star of the future and Honda being Japanese.

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#40 maximilian

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Posted 20 December 2020 - 17:18

 

* Danill Kvyat will be looking for a sponsor in 2021 to come back in 2022, if he finds backing he may be a candidate at Sauber or Williams (or Panthera if they find the 200 m.$). Since Kvyat also has a Ferrari link (he has been their simulator driver one year) he may also be considered by Sauber to replace Kimi if he retires and Ferrari stays (although I think they would more likely extend Giovinazzi to act as lead driver then).
 

* Nico Hülkenberg is a former Sauber driver but also started his F1 carreer at Williams so maybe that could also play a role if Williams will have to look for a Russell replacement and Hülkenberg is still a quality signing, even with another year out of F1.

 

* Pourchaire still a bit too young , expect him again in F2 in 2022.

 

Oh boy, I would be super impressed/surprised if Kvyat comes up with yet ANOTHER comeback in F1.  My feeling is, his time is done - especially with Mazepin and Shwartzman out there to fly the Russian money.

 

Hulkenberg having ANOTHER year out of F1 can't be doing him much good.  My gut says that he really needed to come back in 2021 not to be ultimately forgotten, despite his decent showings as a sub in 2020.

 

Pourchaire could force F1's hand by winning the title in his rookie season.  Tall order, though!  But some of you are pretty big believers in the kid.



#41 Branislav

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 09:07

Next year could be final year for Ham in F1. Especially if he loses to Max. Because 2022 comes Russell and I'm not so sure Ham is happy to share team with him. But on the cards might be switch to Aston Martin or McLaren because in my mind Mercedes no more has first team and these two could be equally good.

 

Max Verstappen, I see him leaving Red Bull. I earlier said silver or red but silver is for Russell and although I would love to see Max partnering him I think it's unlikely. It leads us to the reds and I think there is possibility Ferrari could be dissapointed in Leclerc and sign Max.

 

In that case in Red Bull might return Vettel.

 

 

Mercedes: Russell, Ocon

Red Bull: Vettel, Perez? Gasly?

Ferrari: Verstappen, Leclerc

Alpine: Alonso, Sainz?

Aston Martin: Hamilton?



#42 Marklar

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 09:23

I mean I get the thought behind Hamilton feeling forced out of Merc if Max arrives, but Russell? lol. By that logic Vettel, who was having a far worse time than Lewis now, would have ran away the second Leclerc, who looked more promising than Russell, arrived.

Also Merc has still stakes in Mercedes, nothing has changed here except that others are paying more for it. It's still the first team.

Ferrari will also not drop Leclerc for Max even if he has a bad year. Too promising to discard him this quickly.

I would also not advise Max to switch teams prior to a rule change, for all we know RB could nail it.

Edited by Marklar, 21 December 2020 - 09:24.


#43 Branislav

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 09:35

I mean I get the thought behind Hamilton feeling forced out of Merc if Max arrives, but Russell? lol. By that logic Vettel, who was having a far worse time than Lewis now, would have ran away the second Leclerc, who looked more promising than Russell, arrived.

Also Merc has still stakes in Mercedes, nothing has changed here except that others are paying more for it. It's still the first team.

Ferrari will also not drop Leclerc for Max even if he has a bad year. Too promising to discard him this quickly.

I would also not advise Max to switch teams prior to a rule change, for all we know RB could nail it.

You think Russell is coming to be second driver? Lol


Edited by Branislav, 21 December 2020 - 09:35.


#44 Astandahl

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 09:40

Next year could be final year for Ham in F1. Especially if he loses to Max. Because 2022 comes Russell and I'm not so sure Ham is happy to share team with him. But on the cards might be switch to Aston Martin or McLaren because in my mind Mercedes no more has first team and these two could be equally good.

 

Max Verstappen, I see him leaving Red Bull. I earlier said silver or red but silver is for Russell and although I would love to see Max partnering him I think it's unlikely. It leads us to the reds and I think there is possibility Ferrari could be dissapointed in Leclerc and sign Max.

 

In that case in Red Bull might return Vettel.

 

 

Mercedes: Russell, Ocon

Red Bull: Vettel, Perez? Gasly?

Ferrari: Verstappen, Leclerc

Alpine: Alonso, Sainz?

Aston Martin: Hamilton?

What? Why?
 



#45 Branislav

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 09:42

What? Why?
 

Because Max is on the market.



#46 PlayboyRacer

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 09:44

Max Verstappen, I see him leaving Red Bull. I earlier said silver or red but silver is for Russell and although I would love to see Max partnering him I think it's unlikely. It leads us to the reds and I think there is possibility Ferrari could be dissapointed in Leclerc and sign Max

I like how it's become a case of a star driver "underperforming" which will give Max an escape from a likely sinking ship.

Says it all really of his predicament. Despite his quality he's relying on so many outside influences to have any chance of driving for the big boys.

#47 Branislav

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 09:51

I like how it's become a case of a star driver "underperforming" which will give Max an escape from a likely sinking ship.

Says it all really of his predicament. Despite his quality he's relying on so many outside influences to have any chance of driving for the big boys.

In Max's contract there's a clause if Honda leaves he's free agent.



#48 PlayboyRacer

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 09:52

In Max's contract there's a clause if Honda leaves he's free agent.

I have no doubt.

Perhaps Renault might be his best option?

#49 shure

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 09:54

I like how it's become a case of a star driver "underperforming" which will give Max an escape from a likely sinking ship.

Says it all really of his predicament. Despite his quality he's relying on so many outside influences to have any chance of driving for the big boys.

I would say he's driving for one of the big boys now.  The Top Three are clearly Mercedes, Ferrari (despite this year's setback, I expect them to be back at/near the front in 2021) and Red Bull.  Would love to see McLaren back as part of that equation but I fear that ship sailed the moment they accepted customer status.  The big question mark for Red Bull is the PU after next year, but assuming that somehow get sorted out then Max has as good a chance of success with Red Bull as he does with Ferrari.  Which is not much as long as Mercedes hold their advantage.

 

Think the idea that Ferrari will become disillusioned with Leclerc is a bit of wishful thinking, though. He appears to have the raw speed to match anyone and no doubt his rate of incidents will diminish in proportion to the strength of car at his disposal.  Max's only real shot at driving for the only truly top team is tied up with Hamilton's retirement plans.



#50 Branislav

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 09:58

I have no doubt.

Perhaps Renault might be his best option?

Renault paid for Alonso.


Edited by Branislav, 21 December 2020 - 09:59.