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Has Russell done enough to be promoted to Mercedes?


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Poll: Has Russell done enough to be promoted to Mercedes (145 member(s) have cast votes)

Has Russell done enough to be promoted to Mercedes?

  1. Yes, he should replace Bottas in 2022 (123 votes [87.23%])

    Percentage of vote: 87.23%

  2. No, he needs more time at Williams (18 votes [12.77%])

    Percentage of vote: 12.77%

If Lewis retires at the end of 2021, is Russell ready to lead Mercedes?

  1. Yes, he should replace Hamilton in 2022 and partner Bottas (76 votes [56.72%])

    Percentage of vote: 56.72%

  2. No, Mercedes should get Max as lead and Russell as support (58 votes [43.28%])

    Percentage of vote: 43.28%

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#251 ARTGP

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Posted 29 January 2021 - 20:59

Though then again there are yet again differences here.

What McLaren did was not worth the risk IMO (and I maintain to this day that it was a mistake). There was a extreme high likehood that they could have burned Lewis alongside Alonso or that their fresh investment (Alonso) gets upset. What Merc has now is far more favourable: Russell cant get burned alongside Lewis, if he does in his 3rd or 4th season then it's simply because he isnt good enough, and if Lewis gets upset it also doesnt greatly matter because that investment already paid off greatly and is on its final days anyway. The most Merc can lose is a title if they get 2007-ed, but long term the risk-reward is favourable.

Having said that I still dont think that it means that Merc *has* to promote Russell: I can fully understand a more risk-averse approach to this.

 

I don't know that Lewis would have been burned after a single season. I think it would have taken 2 seasons for a hypothetical burn to take place and really only towards the second season where you start to worry if Hamilton can be competitive. After all, he was not expected to match Alonso in the first year. Alonso had just come off 2 WDC. Hamilton could do no wrong in the first year. It's the second year where you start to wonder if he hypothetically could not match Alonso.

 

Just like I don't think Hamilton can burn Russell in year 1. It's year 1, Hamilton is the 7 (8   ;) ) time reigning WDC. Russell is not expected to beat Hamilton in '22. But Russell sure needs to look competitive and make a match of it in '23.

 

What Merc risk now is never really learning Russell's level if they keep Bottas again.  Hamilton will inevitably decline. The measuring stick is right there in it's prime. Use it. There isn't much sense beating around the bush. They need to figure out if Russell or Verstappen will lead this team into the future. If Red Bull make something of their engine, Merc may lose that opportunity to have Verstappen and he may be the one that dethrones them instead of winning the titles for them.


Edited by ARTGP, 29 January 2021 - 21:04.


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#252 cpbell

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Posted 29 January 2021 - 21:02

If he is the next superstar of this generation and Hamilton is on a decline it shouldnt be unrealistic. Leclerc by midseason was better than Vettel, Verstappen was after a couple of races better than Ricciardo, Lewis was straight away pretty much on Alonso's level, all of them with less experience than he presumably would have...it's pretty obvious that the speed of young drivers usually outweights the experience deficit quickly enough if said young driver is talented enough.

Alas, I personally think he is the 3rd or 4th best driver of the next gen (a Rosberg so to speak) and Lewis' decline isnt steep enough (yet), so I personally think it's unrealistic that he would beat Lewis straight away on merit, but I reckon the majority of this thread rates him higher.

I rate him somewhere between your assessment and being the next dominant driver in F1, but closer to you than the other end of the spectrum.