238 replies to this topic

[Marklar]

Hmm, not sure I'd agree with that. If the pecking order changes by a large degree from one season to the next then it brings unpredictability to races which has been sorely lacking. If RB is a second ahead of the field then yes it will be dull but no more dull than what we have now where Merc has had that kind of advantage depending on circuit. But if we assume that the timings themselves are not necessarily accurate (and even they admit that it's almost impossible to tell) but say for the sake of argument that the pecking order is, then I don't really see how swapping Lewis up front with Max is any worse than what we have now. And assuming the gaps aren't that big (and I have a hard time imagining that not just RB but AT and Ferrari have all managed to leapfrog Mercedes) then it has the potential of offering a proper fight, not just a procession

You didnt really catch my point here.

I'm not talking about the gap from 1st to the rest but from 2nd to the rest. Vettel didnt almost finish 2nd in 2015 because he was brilliant for example, but because he always had default finishes in 3rd with occasional peaks. I really doubt that somebody in the 3rd or 4th best car could do it, especially if there are two drivers as good as Leclerc and Hamilton. And even if one of them manages that - and only then - you would be like last year, otherwise it's worse.

In either scenario though there wont be a championship fight. If you put Max or Lewis in the quickest car by 1-2 tenths they will win. You need them either in (near-)equal cars, or somebody with less skills or a intra-team battle has the quickest car (but not by a big margin either)

Edited by Marklar, 19 March 2021 - 17:08.

[Mat13]

Stuff it, I’ll have a go- I’m usually crap at these.

Mercedes
Red Bull

McLaren

Ferrari
Alpha Tauri
Alpine
Alfa Romeo
Aston Martin

Williams



Haas

The midfield after McLaren (feels AMAZING to type that) is basically impossible to tell, so I guessed it. I put AM last of that group because I don’t like cheats.

[Lucky13]

First post so might as well start with a dreadful prediction. I hope my future posts are more measured than this:

Mercedes
Red bull

McLaren
Alpha Tauri
Aston Martin
Ferrari
Alfa Romeo
Alpine

Williams
Haas

I really believe that the midfield is the closest it’s been for a long time which could lead to some tight, action packed racing. But what do I know, it’s the start of a new season, I’ve just finished season 3 of Drive To Survive and I’m wildly optimistic.

[Mat13]

Welcome Lucky13 👍🏼

[jAnO76]

Welcome Lucky13 👍🏼

You 13’s always sticking together... pffff

[Augurk]

You 13’s always sticking together... pffff

It's appaling isn't it. 

Mods, how do I change my nickname to Augurk76?

[jstrains]

Everybody wanted end of Merc dominance and now if there is one, some are screaming no for it.

[PlayboyRacer]

I stopped reading after "Mark Hughes" "F1 Expert"

Ain't that the truth. Stopped listening to him back in 1999 I think...

[Astandahl]

First post so might as well start with a dreadful prediction. I hope my future posts are more measured than this:

Mercedes
Red bull

McLaren
Alpha Tauri
Aston Martin
Ferrari
Alfa Romeo
Alpine

Williams
Haas

I really believe that the midfield is the closest it’s been for a long time which could lead to some tight, action packed racing. But what do I know, it’s the start of a new season, I’ve just finished season 3 of Drive To Survive and I’m wildly optimistic.

Great avatar

 

For the pecking order i have no idea really, outside of RB and MB being clearly ahead.

Edited by Astandahl, 20 March 2021 - 13:33.

[Mat13]

You 13’s always sticking together... pffff

Whoa, whoa. You don’t get to call us ‘13s’. Only we can call each other ‘13s’...

[KevR]

Everybody wanted end of Merc dominance and now if there is one, some are screaming no for it.

My brother, rest assured that come Bahrain the Mercs will comfortably be 0.3-0.5 tenths ahead of everyone else. It's nice to build up hopes ahead of the new season, but it's all that is - hopes. The pattern repeats itself each year, Merc sandbag the most of all teams in testing and then come up with a 'surprise' for the first race.

[renzmann]

I'm surprised so many of you see Ferrari as a top 4 or top 3 team this year. Why would they be better than last year? If they're lucky, Sainz will be doing better than Vettel, but that's about it, as far as I can see. They've built a disastrous car last season and nobody in the team has taken their responsibility or has been sacked since. Chances are they've built another lemon, no?

[Nemo1965]

It's appaling isn't it. 

Mods, how do I change my nickname to Augurk76?

 

A more important question for the mods: should this forum not be be locked for 9-year olds? I myself am for a age-limit of at least, say, 47... 

[ensign14]

Whoa, whoa. You don’t get to call us ‘13s’. Only we can call each other ‘13s’...

Of course, some of us go one better.

[Mat13]

Of course, some of us go one better.

There’s a Mat12?

[shure]

I'm surprised so many of you see Ferrari as a top 4 or top 3 team this year. Why would they be better than last year? If they're lucky, Sainz will be doing better than Vettel, but that's about it, as far as I can see. They've built a disastrous car last season and nobody in the team has taken their responsibility or has been sacked since. Chances are they've built another lemon, no?

well because we know that their biggest problems by far were that they had a severely underpowered PU which many are anticipating will not be the case this year.  The chassis was doubtless designed for greater levels of power than it had but with levels back up again there's no reason to think they couldn't recapture some of the form they had before last year.  

 

Course, they could still build a lemon but I'd say there's an equal chance that last year was an anomaly.

[sheSgoTthElooK]

I bet it will be an interesting season. Way better than previous years. I believe Mercedes will have a tougher time. I see a lot of unexpected events coming. After all..being grumpy doesn't lead anywhere, at least for now.

[Dratini]

My brother, rest assured that come Bahrain the Mercs will comfortably be 0.3-0.5 tenths ahead of everyone else. It's nice to build up hopes ahead of the new season, but it's all that is - hopes. The pattern repeats itself each year, Merc sandbag the most of all teams in testing and then come up with a 'surprise' for the first race.

A comfortable pace advantage of 0.030 - 0.050 seconds? I'll gladly take that
 

[P0inters]

Mercedes

Red Bull

 

McLaren

 

Alpine

Alpha Tauri

Aston Martin

Ferrari

Alfa Romeo

 

Haas

Williams

 

I reckon Alfa Romeo will significantly close the gap to the midfield. I don't expect McLaren be too far off the top 2 on race pace at all. 

[Quickshifter]

Trends from testing.

Mercedes appear to have a car which has inherent performance but has balance issues front to rear. Whether the issues are more serious ones or setup related we do not know right now.

Redbull have made a step towards Mercedes but will that be enough to match or surpass Mercedes, we will have to find out in Bahrain.

McLaren appear to have pulled away from the midfield and now sit in between the front two and midfield.

Alpine, Alpha Tauri, Aston Martin and Ferrari in an epic fight for fourth place.

[Quickshifter]

I'm surprised so many of you see Ferrari as a top 4 or top 3 team this year. Why would they be better than last year? If they're lucky, Sainz will be doing better than Vettel, but that's about it, as far as I can see. They've built a disastrous car last season and nobody in the team has taken their responsibility or has been sacked since. Chances are they've built another lemon, no?

Ferrari will most likely be fighting for fourth on account of their driver's lineup. With two tokens you cannot fix their issues. I feel they will make a step because of the improvements in PU however their car appeared skittish in testing and on a knife edge. I would say they would be happy if they get fourth but it won't be easy. Fourth will most likely be the maximum they can achieve but if they aren't careful they may end up 6th or 7th with such a competitive midfield.

Edited by Quickshifter, 21 March 2021 - 05:53.

[Quickshifter]

I feel it will be

Formula-1 between Mercedes and Redbull,

McLaren on their own in F-1.25

Alpine, Aston Martin, Alpha Tauri and Ferrari in F-1.5

Alfa Romeo F-1.75

Williams F-2

Haas F-3

[Gambelli]

Sparky68 (RedBull employee) from RedBull thread says, in very few words, that Red Bull and Merc have pulled even further away from the pack... sad/frustrating if true

[PlayboyRacer]

I think alot of people are going to be very disappointed... when 2021 turns out much like 2020. Right through the grid.

[ARTGP]

Sparky68 (RedBull employee) from RedBull thread says, in very few words, that Red Bull and Merc have pulled even further away from the pack... sad/frustrating if true

Think the one caveat is nobody really knows what Aston Martin are.

[shure]

I think alot of people are going to be very disappointed... when 2021 turns out much like 2020. Right through the grid.

Completely agree.  I think all the talk about change is more wishful thinking than anything else but next weekend will simply be 2020 Part II for the most part.  I do expect Ferrari to bounce back (my money's on 3rd), but that's only because I think they had very specific and obvious PU issues last year which dragged them down and which shouldn't be the case this year.  The signs are that McLaren are a little stronger, again thanks to a new PU which they didn't have last year, but I'd be surprised if they were at all clear of AM and Alpine - I think those three will resume their battle.  Otherwise it will be business as usual.

[noikeee]

Ferrari should improve just for the sake of the engine alone. Even if you don't believe Mika Salo's "last year they were running detuned as a punishment" conspiracy, it looks like they've caught up quite a bit in top speeds.

Is it enough to jump ahead of the midfield, eh, idk, the performance seemed a bit disappointing those 3 days last week. Certainly not as impressive as McLaren, which is concerning as Ferrari usually run less fuel than others in testing, it's unlike them to sandbag. I'm expecting a modest step-up, maybe to 4th best but not clear of teams like Alpine and Aston.

It's quite hard to tell how Ferrari Alpine Aston and AT stand up against each other, and even if is McLaren clear of this pack and starting to bother the front 2, or are McLaren still a part of this pack and were just showboating a little bit. McLaren's stints looked impressive but you just never know. It was such a short test, in the past we'd get like 3 weeks of testing and think we had all the pecking order figured out, but we'd still get a couple of surprises in the first race weekend.

[ARTGP]

Ferrari should improve just for the sake of the engine alone. Even if you don't believe Mika Salo's "last year they were running detuned as a punishment" conspiracy, it looks like they've caught up quite a bit in top speeds.

Is it enough to jump ahead of the midfield, eh, idk, the performance seemed a bit disappointing those 3 days last week. Certainly not as impressive as McLaren, which is concerning as Ferrari usually run less fuel than others in testing, it's unlike them to sandbag. I'm expecting a modest step-up, maybe to 4th best but not clear of teams like Alpine and Aston.

It's quite hard to tell how Ferrari Alpine Aston and AT stand up against each other, and even if is McLaren clear of this pack and starting to bother the front 2, or are McLaren still a part of this pack and were just showboating a little bit. McLaren's stints looked impressive but you just never know. It was such a short test, in the past we'd get like 3 weeks of testing and think we had all the pecking order figured out, but we'd still get a couple of surprises in the first race weekend.

 

Charles already last year was outqualifying Mclarens and Renault's when he mostly had no right. P4 on the Bahrain oval track...with a 2020 Ferrari engine. Mental. People should be very afraid of the upgraded Ferrari power unit in Leclerc's hands. I pick Charles to have a fair few top 5 starts this season even if Ferrari are not fundamentally faster than Aston/Mclaren. 

Edited by ARTGP, 21 March 2021 - 12:14.

[PlayboyRacer]

Charles already last year was outqualifying Mclarens and Renault's when he mostly had no right. P4 on the Bahrain oval track...with a 2020 Ferrari engine. Mental. People should be very afraid of the upgraded Ferrari power unit in Leclerc's hands. I pick Charles to have a fair few top 5 starts this season even if Ferrari are not faster than Aston/Mclaren.

He could be lethal this season in qualifying. I really hope so. Four times qualified on the second row last season, alongside Verstappen (with minimal difference in time).

Enough said. McLaren and Aston might not see which way he went.

[WouterF1]

Sparky68 (RedBull employee) from RedBull thread says, in very few words, that Red Bull and Merc have pulled even further away from the pack... sad/frustrating if true

Sparky also said:

 

Posted Yesterday, 22:30

Gap is bigger , us two [Mercedes and RBR]  pretty much even.

[Astandahl]

Extremely interesting article from Federico Albano (who has always provided some of the best analysis about F1 in the last few years).

 

 

In an attempt to find a criterion as truthful as possible we decided to base our analysis on the chronometer, obtaining (through a series of steps) all the times achieved by all drivers in the micro-sectors of the track and then going to make for each team an envelope of the minimums, in an attempt to intercept all those tests done even only partially, which perhaps have shown for a few seconds the true potential of the car in the various sections of the track. This methodology is obviously not perfect, as it does not take into account many other variables, such as specific setups aimed at making targeted tests, but it remains, in our opinion, one of the most objective methods to try to understand what happened on the track last weekend and what to expect for the next one.

 

RedBull finds load and power
 

The visual impression of a RedBull "on the ball" is also confirmed by the data collected. Newey's car seems to be born under one of the best stars and with aerodynamic load as a prerogative. Comparing the data with that of last season, one has the perception of an RB16B that is a true evolution (improvement) of the RB16, in which Newey has sought more load behind the promise of more power from the Power Unit. It's difficult to establish the proportions between one and the other factor, but the car driven by Verstappen and Perez seems to have no problems compared to the competition in the early stages of the straights (a sign of an efficient power unit) and perhaps gives up a few kilometers per hour in the straightaways, but without particularly affecting the lap time, underlining the high aerodynamic impact. The stability of the rear end, a worry at the start of the 2020 season, leads the car from the Milton Keynes team to take advantage when the corner radii get longer, but without losing ground in stretches such as turn 10 and, above all, turn 14, where the front end seems responsive and predictable with some of the best chronometric results. After years of big announcements by Helmut Marko and his teammates, this year's profile, especially that of Verstappen, is much lower, and perhaps this is due to the awareness that the car seems to be on the right foot. Whether or not they will be able to fight for the title, however, does not depend solely on them.

 

 

Mercedes does not bluff on stability, but on power
 

If normally, digging into the data has always revealed a hidden reality of the Brackley cars, which were brought to the limit only for very short stretches so as not to leave any reference points for the adversaries, this time it is not totally the case. The envelope of Hamilton and Bottas' minimums puts the W12 at half a second from RedBull, with times that are never exceptional except in short stretches of pure power. Looking at the driven stretches, the car appears to have an admirable corner entry phase (let's not forget the work Mercedes has done in recent years on the front suspension, which evidently continues to bear fruit) but suffers from instability at the rear when exiting and accelerating, almost as if the updates due to the rule change at the rear did not perfectly match the rest of the car. Obviously the power of the Power Unit cannot be fully discharged to the ground at that point, but only where acceleration is easier to manage and the lap time suffers. However, it doesn't take long to notice that in the micro-sectors 10, 13, 17 and 25, all power areas, Hamilton's foot slipped and he set very fast times. The game of hiding on the power front has not, therefore, been abandoned by Toto Wolff and co.

 

 

 

https://www.formulap...a-1-556268.html

 

Edited by Astandahl, 21 March 2021 - 18:28.

[noikeee]

Sparky also said:

 

Posted Yesterday, 22:30

Gap is bigger , us two [Mercedes and RBR]  pretty much even.

 

Seems believable, and if true would make for a great season not a bad one - if the top 2 teams are neck-to-neck.

 

As for the "gap bigger to the midfield" I wonder if this is really true or a factor of Red Bull now having a proper 2nd driver.    Imagine McLaren gain a couple of tenths relative to Verstappen as a benchmark, but Perez is now super consistently 2 to 3 tenths off Max instead of 7 tenths to 1 second like Albon often was in race pace. Then we've gone from a situation in which Albon was often outqualified and outraced by midfield cars, to a situation in which Perez hardly ever loses out to them... despite the fact McLaren would've objectively gotten closer.

[masa90]

I would be really surprised if front is something else than Merc leading and Red Bull second.

 

Battle for 3rd seems to be quite interesting.

 

Hope Alfa rises to challenge the midfield properly to give legend Kimi a nice sendoff. He drove some amazing races last year with no reward

[Gambelli]

Sparky also said:

 

Posted Yesterday, 22:30

Gap is bigger , us two [Mercedes and RBR]  pretty much even.

 

Yeah thats the quote I was referencing re the midfield, including McLaren..

[Gambelli]

Seems believable, and if true would make for a great season not a bad one - if the top 2 teams are neck-to-neck.

 

As for the "gap bigger to the midfield" I wonder if this is really true or a factor of Red Bull now having a proper 2nd driver.    Imagine McLaren gain a couple of tenths relative to Verstappen as a benchmark, but Perez is now super consistently 2 to 3 tenths off Max instead of 7 tenths to 1 second like Albon often was in race pace. Then we've gone from a situation in which Albon was often outqualified and outraced by midfield cars, to a situation in which Perez hardly ever loses out to them... despite the fact McLaren would've objectively gotten closer.

 

Maybe, hopefully this is the case in terms of gap to leaders for the midfield.  Last year was good because only one front running car needed to hit trouble for someone else to get a podium (which everyone in top 10 of WDC did) bit it would mean this year 2 cars/drivers having to fail, so I think the podium fest of last year will be far reduced this year

[HeadFirst]

Think the one caveat is nobody really knows what Aston Martin are.

 

Including Aston Martin, I suspect.

[djparky]

Aston Martin will not be anywhere near Red Bull or Mercedes. They will fall into the middle of the mid field somewhere.

No huge shock if Mercedes and Red Bull are miles ahead of the rest

[danmills]

I want AT to be the dark horse and be battling Mclaren for third best. I wasn't convinced on Tsunoda but I'm now a fan. If Gasly can keep the upward trend of last year they could be a real nice surprise especially if Honda go all out.

Edited by danmills, 21 March 2021 - 21:36.

[RainyAfterlifeDaylight]

Pecking order based on my unlimited fountain of knowledge:

 

- RedBull

- Mercedes, McLaren & Ferrari

- AlphaTauri & Alpine

- Alfa Romeo & Aston Martin

- Williams

- Haas