The standings after Bahrain:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) Everyone 101 101Everybody is still in contention! There is probably lots of regret about the entries already.
The entries
The following list shows the maximum, average ("popularity poll") and minimum bets on each driver. Column "Diff" is Popularity Poll difference to 2019, when there were 21 races.
Name Max Pop Min Diff Hami 427 391 350 +132 Vers 440 368 303 +153 Bott 310 262 218 + 60 Pere 283 246 203 +178 Ricc 201 170 150 +121 Lecl 210 138 100 - 30 Norr 185 131 100 + 85 Alon 157 112 56 +112 Vett 143 105 60 - 44 Sain 135 98 71 + 38 Stro 100 76 40 + 39 Ocon 110 75 35 + 39 Gasl 100 74 49 + 46 Tsun 83 48 24 + 48 Räik 40 12 4 - 8 Giov 25 9 2 +- 0 Russ 10 4 0 + 2 Schu 8 2 0 + 2 Maze 4 1 0 + 1 Lati 6 1 0 +- 0 Hülk 6 0 0 +- 0Notably the points span for Hamilton guesses is just 77 points.
If the final scores end up in either extreme end, getting guesses right on drivers like Vettel (83 points span), Ocon (75) and Tsunoda (59) may turn out to be as crucial to the final scores as frontrunner guesses.
Popularity Poll WCC prediction:
Team Pts Diff Merc 653 +192 RBR 614 +271 McLa 301 +195 Ferr 236 - 81 Alpi 187 +102 Asto 181 + 76 ATau 122 + 75 Alfa 21 - 8 Will 5 + 2 Haas 3 - 16Tight WCC battle predicted, and a pretty exciting midfield too.
If the Popularity Poll turns out to be a 100% correct prediction, the final standings would look like this:
Pos Name Tot 1) mark f1 2253 2) sladealonso 2249 3) Bleu 2231 4) noikeee 2229 5) SpaceHorseParty 2228 6) Makarias 2211 7) DutchQuicksilver 2210 8) Marklar 2209 9) thegforcemaybewithyou2208 10) scheivlak 2202 11) jjcale 2201 12) M2000-5 2197 13) Grayson 2196 14) KWSN-DSM 2185 15) Brawn BGP 001 2168 16) Anderis 2155 17) f1paul 2141 18) GTA 2126
How many players have guessed each driver for WDC?
Driver Players Hami 11 Vers 7
Teammate battles: Which driver is expected to outscore his teammate?
Owner Owned <- = -> Alon 18 0 0 Ocon Gasl 18 0 0 Tsun Hami 18 0 0 Bott Vers 18 0 0 Pere Lecl 17 0 1 Sain Ricc 17 0 1 Norr Vett 15 1 2 Stro Russ 14 4 0 Lati Räik 12 5 1 Giov Schu 6 12 0 MazePretty, pretty lopsided in most teams.
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Norr 9,1 6,5 0 Hami 6,4 5,8 0 Lecl 5,8 3,8 0 Bott 5,7 4,8 0 Vers 4,9 4,1 0 Tsun 4,2 2,4 0 Sain 4,1 2,9 0 Pere 4,1 3,5 0 Ricc 3,5 3,0 0 Stro 1,3 1,0 0
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2019 this is 23.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Hamilton Verstappen Bottas Norris Perez * Forecast 575 * Potential 568 * Potential 565 * Potential 562 * Potential 560 * Potential 575 f1paul 440 * Forecast 345 * Forecast 276 Brawn BGP 001 283 Anderis 427 * Forecast 414 Anderis 310 M2000-5 185 noikeee 276 f1paul 425 Brawn BGP 001 402 f1paul 300 Brawn BGP 001 164 f1paul 268 Grayson 410 M2000-5 396 Grayson 300 Makarias 146 GTA 265 GTA 410 scheivlak 395 DutchQuicksilver299 Grayson 140 Grayson 260 SpaceHorseParty 410 KWSN-DSM 390 sladealonso 284 jjcale 136 scheivlak 260 jjcale 405 Bleu 387 Marklar 282 noikeee 134 Bleu 258 Makarias 394 jjcale 384 SpaceHorseParty 280 Marklar 132 Marklar 253 sladealonso 393 noikeee 376 jjcale 274 sladealonso 132 thegforcemaybewi250 mark f1 389 SpaceHorseParty 370 mark f1 260 f1paul 131 M2000-5 244 scheivlak 385 Marklar 361 noikeee 259 mark f1 130 mark f1 238 noikeee 383 thegforcemaybewi360 Brawn BGP 001 252 DutchQuicksilver126 SpaceHorseParty 238 DutchQuicksilver382 Makarias 352 thegforcemaybewi250 SpaceHorseParty 125 DutchQuicksilver234 M2000-5 382 Grayson 350 scheivlak 246 Bleu 121 sladealonso 232 Bleu 379 GTA 350 Bleu 245 GTA 119 * Forecast 230 KWSN-DSM 378 sladealonso 345 KWSN-DSM 225 Anderis 116 KWSN-DSM 224 thegforcemaybewi370 mark f1 340 M2000-5 223 scheivlak 115 Makarias 222 Brawn BGP 001 364 DutchQuicksilver330 GTA 220 thegforcemaybewi110 jjcale 217 Marklar 350 Anderis 303 Makarias 218 KWSN-DSM 100 Anderis 203 * Current 25 * Current 18 * Current 15 * Current 12 * Current 10Very interesting.
Guesses on P6-P10:
Leclerc Ricciardo Sainz Tsunoda Stroll * Potential 558 * Potential 556 * Potential 554 * Potential 552 * Potential 551 GTA 210 Brawn BGP 001 201 GTA 135 scheivlak 83 SpaceHorseParty 100 * Forecast 184 KWSN-DSM 200 thegforcemaybewi120 KWSN-DSM 80 Anderis 96 Anderis 167 Marklar 192 Grayson 110 Marklar 75 DutchQuicksilver 96 Bleu 156 Makarias 181 Makarias 107 noikeee 70 M2000-5 91 Makarias 147 mark f1 175 M2000-5 106 Grayson 50 mark f1 90 SpaceHorseParty 145 scheivlak 175 Anderis 105 mark f1 50 jjcale 89 Brawn BGP 001 143 sladealonso 174 Bleu 100 thegforcemaybewi 50 Bleu 88 Marklar 141 M2000-5 169 KWSN-DSM 100 Makarias 46 KWSN-DSM 85 sladealonso 141 f1paul 165 mark f1 100 * Forecast 46 sladealonso 84 thegforcemaybewi140 GTA 165 noikeee 100 Anderis 45 Makarias 79 DutchQuicksilver135 Bleu 162 SpaceHorseParty 100 SpaceHorseParty 43 GTA 65 scheivlak 135 jjcale 162 jjcale 94 sladealonso 42 f1paul 62 Grayson 130 DutchQuicksilver161 * Forecast 92 GTA 40 thegforcemaybewi 62 noikeee 130 Grayson 160 scheivlak 90 f1paul 39 scheivlak 61 jjcale 126 Anderis 156 f1paul 89 Brawn BGP 001 34 Grayson 60 KWSN-DSM 125 noikeee 155 sladealonso 80 DutchQuicksilver 34 Marklar 60 mark f1 120 SpaceHorseParty 150 DutchQuicksilver 79 M2000-5 33 Brawn BGP 001 54 M2000-5 103 thegforcemaybewi150 Brawn BGP 001 77 Bleu 28 noikeee 40 f1paul 100 * Forecast 138 Marklar 71 jjcale 24 * Forecast 23 * Current 8 * Current 6 * Current 4 * Current 2 * Current 1Fascinating reflections under a mysterious light.
The PTPC forecast
Will appear after the Monaco GP.
