84 replies to this topic

[tyker]

Once again I bring forward my qualifying averages for those of you that are interested in this kind of thing, my methodology is too use the fastest lap a driver achieves whether that be in Q1, Q2 or Q3, a driver may well out qualify his teammate but end up having achieved a slower lap so his teammate gets the benefit towards the average lap.

 

Laps are only used where drivers competed in the same qualifying sessions and only dry laps are used because wet laps are run in inconsistent conditions were much larger gaps in teammates are often seen and often an element of luck might be present as well.

 

It has to be seen that a driver has had a fair chance to set a competitive lap, free of mechanical issues, yellow flags etc, also a driver may simply not have set a competitive lap after running off the track or it could be a combination of all 3 things. Another thing I have to be sure of is that drivers are driving to their maximum ability and not just coasting through the qualifying sessions like we tend to see with the top teams until they reach Q3.

 

2021 (After 4 races)

 

01. Russell 0.55s

02. Schumacher 0.54s

03. Verstappen 0.34s

04. Giovinazzi 0.32s

05. Gasly 0.3s

06. Ocon 0.27s

07. Norris 0.26s

08. Leclerc 0.22s

09.Hamilton 0.2s

10. Stroll 0.03s

[Mat13]

Jesus, don’t show the Ricciardo fans in the McLaren thread this!

[Anderis]

Interesting that Stroll and Vettel have been the only close pairing this year so far. Usually at least half of the pairings are within 2 tenths. But a small sample so far.

[GTR]

Jesus, don’t show the Ricciardo fans in the McLaren thread this!

Don't show the Alonso fans in the Alpine thread this, too ;)

[Rupert]

Unfortunately, Kimi has not been doing great in QLF, this year

[Mat13]

Don't show the Alonso fans in the Alpine thread this, too ;)

I’m not brave enough to go in there 😂

[ConsiderAndGo]

Sainz doing much better than I think, myself included, a lot of people thought.

Edited by ConsiderAndGo, 08 May 2021 - 19:14.

[TheAviator]

Sainz doing much better than I think, including myself, a lot of people thought.

I agree. Sainz and Norris are surprise of the season. I think Sainz got a bit advantage over other drivers that change teams duo to amount of running he did at Fiorano but still...very respectable.

[Requiem84]

Sainz doing much better than I think, myself included, a lot of people thought.

That’s because Leclerc looked better than he was doing due to Vettel...

[PlayboyRacer]

That’s because Leclerc looked better than he was doing due to Vettel...

You're right. Some rubbish teammates have flattered Leclerc and Verstappen it seems.

[Requiem84]

You're right. Some rubbish teammates have flattered Leclerc and Verstappen it seems.

Good improvement over you LOL post :-).

Hard data doesn’t lie. This year paints a much more realistic picture now that there is a somewhat acceptable benchmark in the other Ferrari.

[PlayboyRacer]

Good improvement over you LOL post :-).

Hard data doesn’t lie. This year paints a much more realistic picture now that there is a somewhat acceptable benchmark in the other Ferrari.

I'm still laughing believe me lol.

[Astandahl]

You're right. Some rubbish teammates have flattered Leclerc and Verstappen it seems.

It's not just the team mates but the car as well. Leclerc made a huge difference last year because the car had a very unstable rear end. Sainz found a similar situation at Renault and struggled against Hulk for example.

Anyway he is doing a very good job with the   SF 21.

 

2021 AM is probably suffering from the rear end instability as well, like MB during testing. I doubt they will be able to fix it like MB did though. It's going to be another difficult year for Seb considering how much he struggles in these conditions.

Edited by Astandahl, 08 May 2021 - 23:19.

[PlayboyRacer]

It's not just the team mates but the car as well. Leclerc made a huge difference last year because the car had a very unstable rear end. Sainz found a similar situation at Renault and struggled against Hulk for example.
Anyway he is doing a very good job with the SF 21.

2021 AM is probably suffering from the rear end instability as well, like MB during testing. I doubt they will be able to fix it like MB did though. It's going to be another difficult year for Seb considering how much he struggles in these conditions.

Agreed. You're absolutely correct

[TheAviator]

That’s because Leclerc looked better than he was doing due to Vettel...

It was probably a bit of both. He had 0.4s advantage on average, but car was ice skating most of the time, this years car is much more stable and easier to drive hence orher driver not having snap oversteers every few laps (which botb Lec and Vet bad). In alot of races last year they almost drove Monza RWs duo to drag and engine deficit, and someone who has easier time with such handling will naturally make gap even bigger then it realistically is.

In any case, difference between Vettel and Leclerc after 4 quali sessions last year was smaller then current one, against the driver that outqualified Max

Edited by TheAviator, 08 May 2021 - 23:31.

[RPM40]

Sainz is no pushover. But Leclerc clearly has the edge. Which is what is to be expected. I still think its between him, Verstappen and Hamilton for strongest qualifiers on the grid.

[ARTGP]

Good grief....It's still only been 4 races. Let's have a season, then revisit it. Just because it looks like this after 4 races, is not 100% predictor of the next 18 races.  I'm not predicting anything. All I know is that a 4 race sample size is incredibly small to be making conclusions from....

Edited by ARTGP, 08 May 2021 - 23:55.

[goldenboy]

Jesus, don’t show the Ricciardo fans in the McLaren thread this!

I was expecting it to be worse for Dan to be honest.

It actually seems a pretty worthless stat for the McLaren drivers at the moment considering Dan's massive cock up last weekend and also things like Norris track limits. So it doesn't feel anything like a true representation yet. Norris has been all over him in qually despite the head to head.

[Gambelli]

Jesus, don’t show the Ricciardo fans in the McLaren thread this!

 

Judging by the comments in there over the last 6 weeks, the gap should be double that......

 

So, as a Ricciardo fan, I can only speak for myself when I say that gap is of no concern at all and is pretty indicative of the season as it stands....

[tyker]

After Monaco (Monaco Difference)

 

01. Schumacher 0.54s (-)

02. Russell 0.51s (0.35s)

03. Verstappen 0.36s (0.443s)

04. Gasly 0.35s (0.536s)

05. Norris 0.32s (0.567s)

06. Ocon 0.31s (0.465s)

07. Giovinazzi 0.3s (0.233s)

08. Leclerc 0.23s (0.265s)

09. Vettel 0.04s (0.291s)

10. Hamilton 0.03s (-0.494s)

[Anderis]

Quite unfair for Mazepin that one weekend he actually seemed to have a decent pace, Schumacher crashes in FP3, does not take part in Q1 and the average gap stays the same.

[tyker]

Quite unfair for Mazepin that one weekend he actually seemed to have a decent pace, Schumacher crashes in FP3, does not take part in Q1 and the average gap stays the same.

Schumacher was still 0.251s quicker in practice though.

[Anderis]

Even 0.251s would lower the average gap and make Mazepin look a little bit less bad in this case.

 

Even more so he did a better job than Mick this weekend so far by simply staying on track and being able to participate in Q, yet Mick gets to keep his advantage as it was.

Edited by Anderis, 22 May 2021 - 20:16.

[Laptom]

After Monaco (Monaco Difference)

01. Schumacher 0.54s (-)
02. Russell 0.51s (0.35s)
03. Verstappen 0.36s (0.443s)
04. Gasly 0.35s (0.536s)
05. Norris 0.32s (0.567s)
06. Ocon 0.31s (0.465s)
07. Giovinazzi 0.3s (0.233s)
08. Leclerc 0.23s (0.265s)
09. Vettel 0.04s (0.291s)
10. Hamilton 0.03s (-0.494s)

Max has 0.9 in Peres. Why only stating 0.5s?

[Anderis]

Max has 0.9 in Peres. Why only stating 0.5s?

I think it should be almost 0.7 secs because Perez set his best time in Q2 but yeah, I can't figure it out why it's supposed to be 0.443s.

[Bleu]

Even 0.251s would lower the average gap and make Mazepin look a little bit less bad in this case.

 

Even more so he did a better job than Mick this weekend so far by simply staying on track and being able to participate in Q, yet Mick gets to keep his advantage as it was.

 

Reminds kind of 2017. Vandoorne crashed late in Q2, he was faster than Button in that session, with both advancing to Q3 where Stoffel obviously didn't participate. Button set a time but in this comparison he was credited as slower driver.

[tyker]

Even 0.251s would lower the average gap and make Mazepin look a little bit less bad in this case.

 

Even more so he did a better job than Mick this weekend so far by simply staying on track and being able to participate in Q, yet Mick gets to keep his advantage as it was.

I was just pointing out that going into qualifying Schumacher was still looking quicker, we will never know what would have happened in qualifying if Schumacher had competed.

[tyker]

I think it should be almost 0.7 secs because Perez set his best time in Q2 but yeah, I can't figure it out why it's supposed to be 0.443s.

Verstappen's best lap was 1-10.576 set in Q3, Perez did a 1-11.019 set in Q2.

[Gambelli]

Verstappen's best lap was 1-10.576 set in Q3, Perez did a 1-11.019 set in Q2.

 

Should times only count when set in the same session?

 

Say for instance driver A goes out in Q2 and sets a great time, then parks the car knowing he's safe.  Driver B has 2 runs at Q2 and as the track improves actually takes P1, whilst driver A slips back to P6 with a time he did on one run 12 mins earlier.

 

Come Q3, wind picks up and sun comes out, track loses 1 sec of pace, driver A gets Pole, but 0.5 sec off the time Driver B set in Q2, meanwhile driver B was 0.7 off in Q3 and qualified 7th.

 

In the head to head does this mean that driver B is credited with reducing the deficit because their peak lap times are taken for the entire qualifying period?

 

 

Edit: Oh I see you've explained exactly that in your opening post.  I don't agree with this methodology at all but it's your rodeo so you have the right to choose any way you like to do it.

Edited by Gambelli, 23 May 2021 - 10:52.

[Anderis]

Verstappen's best lap was 1-10.576 set in Q3, Perez did a 1-11.019 set in Q2.

Ah, sorry, it turned out that my source had a mistake with Verstappen's lap time and it didn't make sense.

 

 

I was just pointing out that going into qualifying Schumacher was still looking quicker, we will never know what would have happened in qualifying if Schumacher had competed.

True, I don't think you could've counted it any other way in this thread. My point was just that Mick has done the worst job possible regarding qualifying, ensuring he would start from the back after his own mistake, yet it doesn't reflect negatively on him in any way in this thread. Crashing out is doing even worse job than being slow but the former is preferred if you want to look good in this comparison.

[Laptom]

Verstappen's best lap was 1-10.576 set in Q3, Perez did a 1-11.019 set in Q2.

Bit strange not to take the times of the same Q sessions. Weather, temperatures and rain can be different, but it also can go the other way around. So if these are the fixed rules for the year, it is OK.

[Anderis]

Bit strange not to take the times of the same Q sessions. Weather, temperatures and rain can be different, but it also can go the other way around. So if these are the fixed rules for the year, it is OK.

If both drivers made it into Q3, then taking times from Q1 or Q2 is fair because they both had a chance to set a time in Q1 and Q2.

 

Which of course doesn't tell the whole story because the top drivers don't always push 100% in Q1 so if Q1 is the session when the track is the fastest it can lead to some weird results.

 

On the other hand, you can sometimes not set the best time in Q3 for factors outside of your control and if you had a better time in Q2, it will be more representative.

 

It goes both ways so I'm OK either solution.

[SenorSjon]

It still is weird. Because a driver can get top 10 on mediums in Q2 while his teammate struggles and needs the softs. He finally has a faster lap than his teammate, but still both go through to Q3. Wind picks up, sun starts to overheat the track, whatever and Q3 times are slower than Q2 (we see that quite a lot actually). Never mind the aborted red flag laps which could have widened the gap between drivers (Sainz, Bottas, Verstappen).

Edited by SenorSjon, 24 May 2021 - 12:07.

[Anderis]

It still is weird. Because a driver can get top 10 on mediums in Q2 while his teammate struggles and needs the softs. He finally has a faster lap than his teammate, but still both go through to Q3. Wind picks up, sun starts to overheat the track, whatever and Q3 times are slower than Q2 (we see that quite a lot actually). Never mind the aborted red flag laps which could have widened the gap between drivers (Sainz, Bottas, Verstappen).

Well, a lot can happen in Q that's outside of driver's control. You have to set the rules for this thread somehow and no matter what you go with, it will not always be the best reflection of how well a driver has performed.

[tyker]

It still is weird. Because a driver can get top 10 on mediums in Q2 while his teammate struggles and needs the softs. He finally has a faster lap than his teammate, but still both go through to Q3. Wind picks up, sun starts to overheat the track, whatever and Q3 times are slower than Q2 (we see that quite a lot actually). Never mind the aborted red flag laps which could have widened the gap between drivers (Sainz, Bottas, Verstappen).

I wouldn't include such a scenario, drivers have to be on the same tyres.

Edited by tyker, 25 May 2021 - 09:26.

[tyker]

After Baku (Baku Difference)

 

01. Russell 0.49s (0.4s)

02. Schumacher 0.42s (0.08s)

03. Norris 0.35s (0.491s)

04. Verstappen 0.31s (0.067s)

05. Giovinazzi 0.303s (-)

06. Gasly 0.299s (0.089s)

07. Leclerc 0.25s (0.358s)

08. Ocon 0.246s (-0.078s)

09. Hamilton 0.15s (0.656s)

10. Vettel 0.04s (-)

[tyker]

After France (France Difference)

 

01. Schumacher 0.4245s (-)*

02. Russell 0.4237s (0.002s)

03. Giovinazzi 0.36s (0.632s)

04. Verstappen 0.33s (0.454s)

05. Norris 0.32s (0.13s)

06. Gasly 0.3s (-)

07. Leclerc 0.19s (-0.147s)

08. Ocon 0.18s (-0.187s)

09. Hamilton 0.15s (0.128s)

10. Vettel 0.04s (-)

 

*Schumacher's crash prevented his teammate, Mazepin, from finishing his improving lap time.

[Anderis]

Latifi seems pretty lucky with 0.002s to me. Russell was about to improve massively when Schumacher caused the red flag.

[tyker]

After Styria (Styria Difference)

 

01. Russell 0.39s (0.14s)

02. Schumacher 0.37s (0.151s)

03. Giovinazzi 0.35s (0.337s)

04. Norris 0.34s (0.51s)

05. Verstappen 0.33s (0.327s)

06. Gasly 0.3s (0.278s)

07. Leclerc 0.19s (0.154s)

07. Ocon 0.13s (-0.246s)

09. Hamilton 0.12s (-0.032s)

10. Stroll 0s (0.204s)

[tyker]

After Austria (Austria Difference)

 

01. Schumacher 0.4s (0.524s)

02. Russell 0.38s (0.288s)

03. Norris 0.345s (0.374s)

04. Giovinazzi 0.339s (0.227s)

05. Verstappen 0.33s (0.27s)

06. Gasly 0.28s (0.166s)

07. Leclerc 0.16s (-0.041s)

08. Hamilton 0.11s (0.035s)

09. Ocon 0.05s (-0.579s)

10. Vettel 0.01s (0.054s)

[tyker]

After Silverstone (Silverstone Difference)

 

01. Russell 0.4s (0.583s)

02. Schumacher 0.38s (0.313s)

03. Verstappen 0.36s (0.635s)

04. Giovinazzi 0.35s (0.467s)

05. Norris 0.31s (0.002s)

06. Gasly 0.3s (0.443s)

07. Leclerc 0.15s (0.02s)

08. Hamilton 0.13s (0.305s)

09. Vettel 0.07s (0.562s)

10. Ocon 0.04s (-0.095s)

Edited by tyker, 31 July 2021 - 18:30.

[tyker]

After Hungary (Hungary Difference)

 

01. Verstappen 0.39s (0.771s)

02. Schumacher 0.384s (-)

03. Gasly 0.381s (1.045s)

04. Russell 0.37s (0.092s)

05. Norris 0.33s (0.486s)

06. Giovanazzi 0.31s (-0.03s)

07. Hamilton 0.15s (0.315s)

08. Leclerc 0.14s (0.075s)

09. Vettel 0.08s (0.099s)

10. Ocon 0.02s (-0.112s)

 

[A.Fant]

BTW I understand why it doesn't get covered in the average (since that would be impossible), but do people consider the Haas qualifying battle to be 9-0 or 9-2 considering Mick has sent himself to the back of the grid twice by writing off the car in FP3?

 

Just like most head-to-head finishing stats seem to include crash DNFs these days I think it would be fair to say the score is 9-2.

[Requiem84]

After Hungary (Hungary Difference)

01. Verstappen 0.39s (0.771s)
02. Schumacher 0.384s (-)
03. Gasly 0.381s (1.045s)
04. Russell 0.37s (0.092s)
05. Norris 0.33s (0.486s)
06. Giovanazzi 0.31s (-0.03s)
07. Hamilton 0.15s (0.315s)
08. Leclerc 0.14s (0.075s)
09. Vettel 0.08s (0.099s)
10. Ocon 0.02s (-0.112s)

Verstappen was not 0.771 ahead in Q3 - are you taking the fastest time in any Q session?

[Marklar]

Verstappen was not 0.771 ahead in Q3 - are you taking the fastest time in any Q session?

Yes, he does. He wants the "ultimate" pace

[tyker]

BTW I understand why it doesn't get covered in the average (since that would be impossible), but do people consider the Haas qualifying battle to be 9-0 or 9-2 considering Mick has sent himself to the back of the grid twice by writing off the car in FP3?

 

Just like most head-to-head finishing stats seem to include crash DNFs these days I think it would be fair to say the score is 9-2.

For my own part if a driver doesn't take part in qualifying I just see it as being null and void whether it's his fault or not, if he crashes in qualifying without setting a time that's different again. I would include it in the head to head.

Edited by tyker, 31 July 2021 - 20:41.

[tyker]

After Zandvoort (Zandvoort Difference)

 

01. Gasly 0.43s (0.921s)

02. Verstappen 0.403s (0.494s)

03. Schumacher 0.397s (0.488s)

04. Giovinazzi 0.314s (-)

05. Russell 0.311s (-0.339s)

06. Norris 0.25s (-0.539s)

07. Hamilton 0.16s (0.299s)

08. Leclerc 0.14s (0.1s)

09. Vettel 0.08s (-)*

10. Ocon 0.02s (0.037s)

 

*Vettel blocked in Q1

[SenorSjon]

Vettel wasn't blocked for 18 minutes...

Perez is lucky you didn't count Max his Q2 or Q3 lap.

[tyker]

Vettel wasn't blocked for 18 minutes...

Perez is lucky you didn't count Max his Q2 or Q3 lap.

Vettel posted a faster lap after the first 2 runs, on the 3rd run Vettel got blocked while Stroll improved his lap to go faster than Vettel, as for Verstappen my methodology is explained in my opening post,

[tyker]

After Monza (Monza Difference)

 

01. Gasly 0.44s (0.536s)

02. Verstappen 0.42s (0.645s)

03. Schumacher 0.4s (0.468s)

04. Giovinazzi 0.31s (-)

05. Russell 0.29s (0.035s)

06. Norris 0.24s (0.006s)

07. Hamilton 0.14s (-0.096s)

08. Leclerc 0.12s (-0.048s)

09. Vettel 0.08s (0.107s)

10. Ocon 0.02s (-0.034s)

Edited by tyker, 10 September 2021 - 19:16.