After the street fighting of marvellous Monaco and barmy Baku, F1 returns to prosaic Paul Ricard for the opening leg of the first 2021 triple-header. The outlook may seem bleak at such a maligned venue, but things are different this year, with the added intrigue of bend-no-more wings and trick-me-not tyres promising to expose the exploiters.
Could we possibly see a hat-trick of Leclerc poles, back-to-back wins for Perez, or will Le Castellet provide Le Conventionnel result with a return to form for malfunctioning Mercedes?
It's a weekend feast of motorsport, and centre stage is Round 7 of the 2021 Formula One World Championship.
The Circuit
The track has been resurfaced and some corners reprofiled, but it's a familiar story.
The Outlook
It has been a very busy opening sextet of races, and Paul Ricard feels like the first natural checkpoint to take stock before the mid-season madness takes hold. Several teams will be introducing upgrades that they hope will put them in good stead as the development focus slowly shifts from 2021 to 2022.
The last two races at this circuit have been nothing more than a proving ground for Mercedes, and they will hope the trend continues as they try to banish the finger trouble and Pirelli puzzle that has plagued them in recent weeks. On paper, it looks good. The track layout, tyre compounds and weather forecast should suit them, but there's one crucial ingredient they cannot control: momentum, which is exactly what Red Bull has, despite their topsy-turvy Baku race. Verstappen's consistent form has earned him a deserved lead in the drivers' championship, and Perez's improving form has earned the team a deserved lead in the constructors'. The losses they are assumed to take from the various technical directives may be offset by the rumour of a Honda "reliability" upgrade. The competitive picture is still far from assured, it's anyone's game at the front.
For all of Ferrari's stunning street-circuit speed, they failed to convert it into big, big points. McLaren is still nipping at their heels as the calendar turns towards more traditional tracks. However, it remains to be seen whether their prodigious pace was circuit-specific, or if they have unlocked genuine pace out of the SF21. A third pole for Leclerc is surely an impossibility, but think back to the solid race pace shown in Barcelona, which should translate well here. Sainz has struggled to fully capitalise on the car's upturn in pace and needs a better weekend.
McLaren will be glad to have escaped Baku without major points damage, but their promising early season form has stalled somewhat. A string of sub-par qualifying performances have left them fighting the wrong battles, but at such an open and forgiving circuit there's ample opportunity to put that right in a few days. Ricciardo's climb to comfortability should be favoured by a track with few slow corners. If he can combine the pace showed at Barcelona with the personal improvements made at Monaco and Baku, he may suddenly become the thorn in Lando's side that we all expect.
Fresh from a terrific podium in Baku, Gasly's stock continues to rise. There will be no better place to cement his status than at his home grand prix. Alpha Tauri has finally woken up and delivered the results we were expecting in pre-season. Tsunoda, too, has recovered from a shaky sequence of races and will be pleased to race on familiar ground. Ocon, fresh from signing a new contract, will be fighting Gasly for French pride as both he and Alpine look to re-establish themselves at the very top of the midfield. Hopefully, we don't see a repeat of their 2018 crash. Alonso has earmarked this race as a natural reset in his season and should be equipped with tweaked power steering to aid his feel in the cockpit. Judging by the Baku restart, he doesn't need it! Watch closely for sparks of Spanish magic.
Aston Martin and Vettel's season has suddenly jolted into life, and they are riding a wave of serious momentum. Has the "Vettel of Old" finally returned? Has Aston resolved their low-rake hiccups? Or was it all a Monaco mirage, an Azerbaijan apparition? There's no place to hide at Paul Ricard, so the answers will be plain to see. Stroll's quietly confident Baku race was loudly interrupted by a big crash. Will he suffer a similar loss of speed like that which troubled him after Mugello last year? Let's hope not, as he too deserves a chunk of the improved AM pace.
A point apiece for Kimi and Giovinazzi in the last two races has lifted Alfa into a clear P8 in the constructors', but they'll likely struggle to ascend any further. Easily the most improved team on the grid and another chance to prove it at an all-rounder circuit. Although, Vasseur was very vocal about the flexi-wing tests, so it's possible it may hurt them more than most. Ilott was due to take FP1, but there's no confirmation yet.
Haas and Williams remain pointless, but crucially have swapped positions in the WCC after Schumacher's plucky run to P13 last time out. Both teams will be relieved to see more conventional territory, with the barriers barely visible. Nissany subs in for Russell in FP1.
Weather, Tyres
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Fri - 29c, Sunny
Sat - 31c, Sunny
Sun - 26c, Cloudy, chance of rain
An anxious weekend for Pirelli with a few unknowns thanks to the resurfacing and high temperatures. A return to the most common middle range of compounds. Likely one-stop based on previous years. Pit lane loss moderately high at 23-24s.
Tyre pressures: 21.0 psi front (-2.0 vs 2019) | 19.5 psi rear (-0.5 vs 2019)
Schedule
BST (UK) | CEST (Most of Europe) FP1 1030 1130 FP2 1400 1500 FP3 1100 1200 Q 1400 1500 R 1400 1500
Time zone conversion here.
A very busy sporting weekend, so worth checking other sports and series to work around any clashes. Formula 3 and Clio Cup supporting. Full schedule.
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Well there's no such thing as a boring grand prix, is there? According to the internet, Paul Gascoigne once said, "I never predict anything, and I never will". A lesson we should all heed before lights out on Sunday.
Who will be King of the Tarmac Jungle?
Edited by TomNokoe, 17 June 2021 - 10:53.