After its summer intermission, F1 is back in action as we kick off the second half of the season with a Belgium-Netherlands-Italy triple header.
A four-week break was barely enough to allow the dust to settle from the controversy of Silverstone and the shock of Budapest, but we're racing once more with rivalries resumed and competition continued.
Where better to turn up the tension in the title race than gloomy, gritty Spa? It's Round 12 of the 2021 FIA Formula One World Championship.
Prophecies for Part Two
Mercedes and Hamilton begin the second half of the season in their default position atop both championships. Will we see a repeat of 2017 and 2018, where things click into gear and they speed away without a trace, or a tooth-and-nail fight to the bitter end? It remains to be seen if the assumed introduction of PU3 will continue to edge them away in the power stakes, and if the Silverstone upgrades and refined low-downforce package will find their sweet spot at this compromise circuit. Hamilton will be aiming to cut out the scruffy errors that have stymied his usual consistency. Bottas will be aiming to make it through turn 1 without shedding any bodywork.
Red Bull's forecast looks cloudy at best. The spectre of engine penalties hanging above them, and a creeping loss of form that must be addressed. Setup grumbles from Budapest are likely to resolve themselves naturally at a circuit famed for its efficiency, but cool temperatures will throw a spanner into the mix in unlocking the tyres. It's the perfect time to counterattack Mercedes before Max's Zandvoort homecoming, and no doubt the oranje army will make this weekend feel more like a dress rehearsal. Verstappen should pick off from where he left off before the break - relentless, whilst Checo should relent from the silly errors and mystifying lack of pace that is starting to appear more than you'd expect.
McLaren's once-comfortable constructors' cushion had been reduced to nil as they enter part two of 2021 honours even with Ferrari. On paper, Spa's power sensitivity should provide an opportunity to re-establish their WCC lead, but that depends on many factors, not least the weather, and crucially the performance of their second driver. Is it possible for Lando to maintain the incredibly high levels he's reached so far this year, or will the break have broken his rhythm? Ricciardo's limitations will likely be masked by the track layout, but don't forget his stunning drive to P4 last year. A great chance to start completely afresh.
Ferrari's French thrashing and Silverstone surprise provided more questions than answers in their yo-yo season. Questions that very well might be answered this weekend at another high-speed, front-limited circuit. Dark horses again, really? Engine dilemmas loom large here, too, and Monza is just around the corner. Arguably the best driver line-up on the grid can have few complaints after an encouraging opening half. Leclerc will be ready to pounce for an elusive third victory, with Sainz nipping at his heels. Stealing P3 from McLaren in the WCC would be a welcome fillip after last year's ignominy.
The battle for P5 in the constructors' was turned upside-down in Budapest, and it was Alpine who emerged the strongest after their shock win. It's possible the break may have halted the instant momentum gained, but nonetheless, a season that was slowly slipping away has burst into life. The team has already earmarked this weekend as a potential struggle, but this is juxtaposed by Alonso's continued improvement and fighting spirit, and the first-win bounce that Ocon is bound to enjoy. An optimistic second half beckons.
The second force in the battle is Alpha Tauri, the only team to score points in every race so far. However, this statistic will provide little respite considering the string of missed opportunities that have come and gone. Gasly's superb comeback drive last year and daring overtake on Perez into Eau Rouge should provide the necessary spark to attack the second half of 2021 with the speed and execution of a team much faster than their position suggests. Tsunoda took his first F3 podium and his first F2 feature race win at this track, as he looks to score points for three consecutive races.
Aston Martin enters the second half of the year on the back foot after Vettel's stirring Hungary drive was snatched away from them at the last. P7 in the constructors' and facing an uphill battle. Difficult to predict form in such a tight midfield battle. There's a lot of pressure on both drivers to start delivering every weekend and to cut out the mistakes that always seem to befall at least one side of the garage.
Williams haven't found themselves this high up in a weekend preview for a long time. If George Russell's expected departure closed one door, it somehow opened a window with a superb double-points finish that has all but secured P8 in the WCC. Spa should see a return to the Q3-threatening pace that suddenly appeared at power-sensitive tracks, and it's worth noting this will be the first time in two years they can run a bespoke Spa/Monza wing, after Nissany's successful test from Austria FP1. I have an eye on Latifi to see if he can finally start to challenge George before he takes the step upstairs.
The idea that Alfa Romeo could somehow finish 2021 worse than 2020 is a difficult thought to fathom, but that is what they are faced with at the halfway point. A reasonable enough package that is never fulfilled at the right time. Will this be Kimi's last assault at Spa before he relinquishes his crown? He always, always goes well here. Conversely, Giovinazzi has crashed twice in two years and will be hoping to start the second half of this year in a better fashion.
Haas' strategy of mild improvement as the season wears on hasn't quite materialised, as more mistakes and issues have crept in despite the rookie line-up's growing experience. Points look a million miles away, but there is still plenty to improve upon in the final dozen or so races, not least cutting out the needless crashes. Mick races at Spa 30 years on from his father's debut.
Weather, Tyres
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Fri - Wet, 14c,
Sat - Wet, 16c
Sun - Wet, 15c
The last all-wet weekend I can remember is USA 2015, but they did run slicks in the race, so I don't know if it counts. Before that... Monza 2008?
Very optimistic from Pirelli to forego the intermediate and full-wet graphic.
Schedule
BST (UK) | CEST (Most of Europe)
FP1 1030 1130
FP2 1400 1500
FP3 1100 1200
Q 1400 1500
R 1400 1500
Same as always. Time zone conversion here.
Formula 3, Porsche Supercup and W Series supporting. Full schedule.
This weekend marks the 50th F1 start for Norris, Russell, and the RB-Honda relationship, and the 200th F1 start for Ricciardo, and probably some other assorted milestones, too.
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Saying "F1 IS BACK" is a bit naff considering it was less than a month ... but here we are again. Thoughts, predictions and weather pessimism welcome below 
Edited by TomNokoe, 25 August 2021 - 23:27.
