Just as in Shareholders, Malaysia 2009 works as a precedent here and I'll treat the Belgium reults as if full points were awarded.
http://forums.autosp...threadid=107822
Exciting!
The standings after Belgium:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) scheivlak 1193 87 2) noikeee 1190 84 3) M2000-5 1189 82 = mark f1 1189 82 5) jjcale 1185 78 6) Bleu 1184 81 = Grayson 1184 81 8) Makarias 1183 81 = thegforcemaybewithyou1183 81 10) GTA 1182 81 = SpaceHorseParty 1182 81 12) KWSN-DSM 1181 83 13) Anderis 1180 74 = Brawn BGP 001 1180 80 = DutchQuicksilver 1180 80 = sladealonso 1180 80 17) f1paul 1175 75 18) Marklar 1174 80Ah, the sweet smell of complete chaos in the evening and the knowledge that for once it was completely the right race for me to miss.
The entries
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Lati 757,9 114,3 18 Russ 591,0 200,0 18 Norr 86,1 60,8 2 Sain 85,8 61,8 4 Gasl 77,2 56,4 2 Lecl 60,6 39,8 0 Ocon 59,6 40,5 2 Vers 55,9 46,7 0 Hami 52,4 47,9 0 Pere 42,3 36,6 0 Bott 40,0 33,8 0 Vett 38,1 27,8 0 Alon 37,6 26,6 0 Tsun 37,4 21,4 0 Ricc 36,6 30,7 0 Stro 18,5 13,9 0 Räik 17,0 4,9 0 Giov 11,4 3,8 0Russell and Latifi become the first two drivers to become 100% surprises this season. Congrats!
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2019 this is 23.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Verstappen Russell Hamilton Ricciardo Vettel * Potential 481 * Potential 297 * Potential 480 * Potential 337 * Potential 315 f1paul 440 * Forecast 42 Anderis 427 Brawn BGP 001 201 DutchQuicksilver143 Brawn BGP 001 402 * Current 22 f1paul 425 KWSN-DSM 200 jjcale 131 M2000-5 396 scheivlak 10 Grayson 410 Marklar 192 Makarias 122 scheivlak 395 noikeee 7 GTA 410 Makarias 181 thegforcemaybewi120 * Forecast 395 Brawn BGP 001 6 SpaceHorseParty 410 mark f1 175 f1paul 119 KWSN-DSM 390 KWSN-DSM 6 jjcale 405 scheivlak 175 Marklar 118 Bleu 387 Anderis 5 Makarias 394 sladealonso 174 mark f1 115 jjcale 384 M2000-5 5 * Forecast 393 M2000-5 169 Bleu 112 noikeee 376 mark f1 5 sladealonso 393 f1paul 165 sladealonso 110 SpaceHorseParty 370 jjcale 4 mark f1 389 GTA 165 Brawn BGP 001 109 Marklar 361 Marklar 4 scheivlak 385 Bleu 162 M2000-5 105 thegforcemaybewi360 DutchQuicksilver 3 noikeee 383 jjcale 162 Anderis 104 Makarias 352 f1paul 3 DutchQuicksilver382 DutchQuicksilver161 KWSN-DSM 100 Grayson 350 Bleu 2 M2000-5 382 Grayson 160 noikeee 99 GTA 350 Grayson 2 Bleu 379 Anderis 156 scheivlak 90 sladealonso 345 sladealonso 2 KWSN-DSM 378 noikeee 155 * Forecast 77 mark f1 340 thegforcemaybewi 2 thegforcemaybewi370 SpaceHorseParty 150 SpaceHorseParty 75 DutchQuicksilver330 Makarias 1 Brawn BGP 001 364 thegforcemaybewi150 Grayson 60 Anderis 303 GTA 0 Marklar 350 * Forecast 119 GTA 60 * Current 206 SpaceHorseParty 0 * Current 205 * Current 62 * Current 40Who knows if one point more or less guessed on Russell ends up being a title decider this season.
Guesses on P6-P10:
Gasly Ocon Leclerc Latifi Sainz * Potential 332 * Potential 320 * Potential 359 * Potential 283 * Potential 359 * Forecast 109 thegforcemaybewi110 GTA 210 * Forecast 15 * Forecast 161 KWSN-DSM 100 noikeee 101 Anderis 167 * Current 8 GTA 135 mark f1 100 Bleu 95 * Forecast 161 KWSN-DSM 6 thegforcemaybewi120 scheivlak 89 SpaceHorseParty 95 Bleu 156 jjcale 2 Grayson 110 DutchQuicksilver 88 M2000-5 94 Makarias 147 M2000-5 2 Makarias 107 sladealonso 85 Grayson 90 SpaceHorseParty 145 mark f1 2 M2000-5 106 Brawn BGP 001 83 * Forecast 86 Brawn BGP 001 143 thegforcemaybewi 2 Anderis 105 thegforcemaybewi 80 Anderis 82 Marklar 141 Anderis 1 Bleu 100 Marklar 79 KWSN-DSM 80 sladealonso 141 Brawn BGP 001 1 KWSN-DSM 100 noikeee 71 mark f1 80 thegforcemaybewi140 Marklar 1 mark f1 100 GTA 70 DutchQuicksilver 76 DutchQuicksilver135 noikeee 1 noikeee 100 f1paul 68 Makarias 75 scheivlak 135 scheivlak 1 SpaceHorseParty 100 Makarias 68 sladealonso 68 Grayson 130 Bleu 0 jjcale 94 SpaceHorseParty 65 Marklar 65 noikeee 130 DutchQuicksilver 0 scheivlak 90 M2000-5 63 scheivlak 60 jjcale 126 f1paul 0 f1paul 89 Grayson 60 jjcale 59 KWSN-DSM 125 Grayson 0 * Current 84 Bleu 57 GTA 50 mark f1 120 GTA 0 sladealonso 80 * Current 57 * Current 45 M2000-5 103 Makarias 0 DutchQuicksilver 79 jjcale 54 Brawn BGP 001 43 f1paul 100 sladealonso 0 Brawn BGP 001 77 Anderis 49 f1paul 35 * Current 84 SpaceHorseParty 0 Marklar 71Gasly, Ocon and Sainz are all beating guesses already and make things interesting in the coming races. Leclerc will get there soon too.
The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/- M2000-5 2069,3 2,6 Makarias 2032,6 -21,0 noikeee 2031,9 -16,9 KWSN-DSM 2028,7 -10,1 SpaceHorseParty 2026,2 -22,9 Bleu 2025,4 -5,2 scheivlak 2023,5 -0,8 Brawn BGP 001 2019,0 -2,1 thegforcemaybewithyou2013,9 -16,8 mark f1 2009,7 -21,6 GTA 2004,9 -46,2 Grayson 1998,2 -35,2 sladealonso 1989,6 -21,7 jjcale 1985,1 -16,8 DutchQuicksilver 1962,2 -18,5 Anderis 1958,6 -17,1 Marklar 1947,7 -21,6 f1paul 1932,9 -2,3Williams drivers scoring loads of points didn't help the forecast. But Ricciardo and Vettel helped things for the better.